Hamburger SV vs 1. FSV Mainz 05, Bundesliga 2026-27 REGULAR SEASON
Overview
Match Preview
Hamburger SV vs 1. FSV Mainz 05 — Bundesliga at Volksparkstadion.
- Hamburger SV 6 games · 9 pts (2026/27)
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 6 games · 10 pts (2026/27)
Match Details
- Referee Tobias Reichel
- Assistant 1 Christian Bandurski
- Assistant 2 Marcel Unger
3 games this season
🟨 3.7/game
⚽ 10.3 goals/game
Standings
| # | Team | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Bayern Munchen | 6 | 14 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 6 | 13 |
| 4 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 6 | 13 |
| 5 | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 6 | 10 |
| 6 | SV 07 Elversberg | 6 | 10 |
| 7 | RB Leipzig | 6 | 9 |
| 8 | SV Werder Bremen | 6 | 9 |
| 9 | Hamburger SV | 6 | 9 |
| 10 | FC Augsburg | 6 | 8 |
| 11 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 6 | 8 |
| 12 | 1. FC Koln | 6 | 7 |
| 13 | VfB Stuttgart | 6 | 6 |
| 14 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 6 | 6 |
| 15 | FC Schalke 04 | 6 | 5 |
| 16 | SC Paderborn 07 | 6 | 5 |
| 17 | 1. FC Union Berlin | 6 | 5 |
| 18 | Borussia Monchengladbach | 6 | 0 |
Head-to-Head
Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | H/A | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Sep | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | H | 0–5 | L |
| 29 Aug | Borussia Dortmund | A | 0–2 | L |
| 24 Aug | SC Verl | A | 3–0 | W |
| 16 May | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | A | 1–1 | D |
| 10 May | SC Freiburg | H | 3–2 | W |
| 02 May | Eintracht Frankfurt | A | 2–1 | W |
| Date | Opponent | H/A | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Sep | Hamburger SV | A | 5–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | SC Paderborn 07 | H | 0–0 | D |
| 23 Aug | VfB 1921 Krieschow | A | 9–0 | W |
| 16 May | 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | A | 2–0 | W |
| 10 May | 1. FC Union Berlin | H | 1–3 | L |
| 03 May | FC St. Pauli 1910 | A | 2–1 | W |
Season Stats
| Hamburger SV | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | |
|---|---|---|
| #9 | Position | #5 |
| 9 | Points | 10 |
| 6 | Played | 6 |
| 3 / 0 / 3 | W / D / L | 3 / 1 / 2 |
| 6 | Scored | 14 |
| 15 | Conceded | 10 |
| -9 | GD | +4 |
| 1.50 | PPG | 1.67 |
| 50% | Win % | 50% |
Key Stats
22%
Both Teams to Score
H2H (9 games)
H2H (9 games)
22%
Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history
H2H history
17%
Clean Sheets
Hamburger SV this season
Hamburger SV this season
50%
Clean Sheets
1. FSV Mainz 05 this season
1. FSV Mainz 05 this season
Hamburger SV are 9th (9 pts). 1. FSV Mainz 05 are 5th (10 pts).
Goal Timing (This Season)
Hamburger SV
0-15
1/1
16-30
–/3
31-45
1/2
46-60
1/2
61-75
–/2
76+
3/4
■ Scored ■ Conceded
1. FSV Mainz 05
0-15
–/4
16-30
3/–
31-45
4/1
46-60
1/3
61-75
–/1
76+
6/1
■ Scored ■ Conceded
Top Scorers (This Season)
Hamburger SV
| Miro Muheim | 2 G | 1 A |
| Yussuf Poulsen | 2 G |
1. FSV Mainz 05
| Phillip Tietz | 5 G | |
| Sheraldo Becker | 2 G | 3 A |
| Anthony Caci | 2 G | 2 A |
| Philipp Mwene | 1 G | 1 A |
| Ransford Konigsdorffer | 1 G |
Events
Match Events
- 0' The ball is rolling at Volksparkstadion. Hamburger SV are looking to make home advantage count against 1. FSV Mainz 05.
- 5' Both keepers have barely been tested. Hamburger SV and 1. FSV Mainz 05 are cancelling each other out in the centre of the park.
- 10' Both teams are passing the ball around with high level of urgency. Hamburger SV needs to do something about it to get closer to the goal.
- 15' Hamburger SV are keeping things exceptionally tight at the back. It will take something special to break them down.
- 19' Sheraldo Becker adds to his 3 season tally! 1. FSV Mainz 05 lead 0-1 — and this changes everything.
- 24' Phillip Tietz has been disciplined this evening — perhaps mindful of those 6 cards already picked up this season.
- 29' It’s high time Urs Fischer made some changes to put the his team’s game back to action.
- 31' Anthony Caci picks up a card and will need to be extremely careful for the remainder of this match.
- 35' Zakaria El Ouahdi was booked on 35.
- 36' It’s a booking for Hamburger SV player. Zakaria El Ouahdi gets a card.
- 41' GOAL! Philipp Mwene fires home to make it 0-2!
- 46' Hamburger SV make a change. Bilal Nadir trudges off to be replaced by Fabio Vieira on 46 minutes.
- 48' Against the run of play, Phillip Tietz has scored! This game has turned on its head.
- 53' Spectators are craving for more action. Both teams play very cautiously. They need to put some more energy.
- 58' We miss some good tackles and strikes. Is there anyone on the field to put the game back to action?
- 63' We are waiting for someone to take the initiative. Who will be the first to commit to attack?
- 64' A change in the Hamburger SV ranks — Terem Moffi exits the field as Otto Stange enters on 64.
- 68' Ransford Konigsdorffer is replacing Sheraldo Becker for the 1. FSV Mainz 05 side.
- 73' The midfield battle is intense right now. Both Hamburger SV and 1. FSV Mainz 05 are fighting for every inch of the pitch.
- 78' The 24-year-old Zakaria El Ouahdi has been sensational this season — 0 goals and 0 assists is a remarkable return.
- 81' Fresh legs for 1. FSV Mainz 05! Danny da Costa comes on to replace Anthony Caci.
- 83' What composure from Phillip Tietz! The Germany international strokes it home. 0-4.
- 84' Louis Lemke has so much to prove this time. He replaces David Wolfe on 84 minute.
- 85' The referee calls foul for Philipp Mwene. He receives a card.
- 88' Rael Nakuzola has so much to prove this time. He replaces Stefan Posch on 88 minute.
- 90' Poor challenge from Sheraldo Becker. The referee spots it immediately and shows the card.
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 celebrates a vital win. Three points that could prove pivotal come season's end.
Lineups
Hamburger SV Lineups
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 23
- 1
- 33
- 24
-
9
Terem Moffi ↓ Otto Stange 64'
- 11
-
4
Bilal Nadir ↓ Fabio Vieira 46'
- 21
-
5
Martin Adeline ↓ Patson Daka 46'
-
3
David Wolfe ↓ Louis Lemke 84'
- 7
Bench
- 18
- 15
-
27
Patson Daka ↑ 46'
-
20
Fabio Vieira ↑ 46'
- 12
-
19
Otto Stange ↑ 64'
- 22
-
43
Shafiq Nandja ↑ 46'
-
37
Louis Lemke ↑ 84'
Coach
Merlin Polzin
1. FSV Mainz 05 Lineups
3-5-2Starting XI
- 23
-
19
Anthony Caci ↓ Danny da Costa 81'
- 2
- 10
-
4
Stefan Posch ↓ Rael Nakuzola 88'
- 1
- 9
-
6
Kaishu Sano ↓ Lennart Maloney 88'
-
7
Jae-sung Lee ↓ Otto Ruoppi 88'
- 3
- 48
Bench
- 16
-
21
Danny da Costa ↑ 81'
-
15
Lennart Maloney ↑ 88'
-
11
Ransford Konigsdorffer ↑ 68'
- 17
- 40
- 24
-
20
Otto Ruoppi ↑ 88'
-
47
Rael Nakuzola ↑ 88'
Coach
Urs Fischer
H2H
H2H Top Scorers
| Player | Goals |
|---|---|
| Phillip Tietz | 2 |
| Ransford Konigsdorffer | 1 |
| Sheraldo Becker | 1 |
| Philipp Mwene | 1 |
Head to Head
Hamburger SV Form
1. FSV Mainz 05 Form
2026-09-06
Hamburger SV
0–5
1. FSV Mainz 05
W
2026-08-29
1. FSV Mainz 05
0–0
SC Paderborn 07
D
2026-08-23
VfB 1921 Krieschow
0–9
1. FSV Mainz 05
W
2026-05-16
1. FC Heidenheim 1846
0–2
1. FSV Mainz 05
W
2026-05-10
1. FSV Mainz 05
1–3
1. FC Union Berlin
L
2026-05-03
FC St. Pauli 1910
1–2
1. FSV Mainz 05
W
Predictions
Prediction accuracy
3 / 4
0.92
Hamburger SV xG
Expected Goals
Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo
3.29
1. FSV Mainz 05 xG
I would bet for:
Over 2.5 goals 77% + 1. FSV Mainz 05 to win 68%
Match Result
✓ CorrectActual: 1. FSV Mainz 05 win
Both Teams to Score
✗ Wrong
Avg goals/match: 4.21
Actual: No — clean sheet
Over / Under Goals
✓ O/U 2.5| Line | Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ± 0.5 | 98% |
|
2% |
| ± 1.5 | 91% |
|
9% |
| ± 2.5 | 77% |
|
23% |
| ± 3.5 | 58% |
|
42% |
| ± 4.5 | 39% |
|
61% |
Double Chance
Hamburger SV or Draw
32%
Draw or 1. FSV Mainz 05
85%
Hamburger SV or 1. FSV Mainz 05
83%
Half-Time Result
✓ CorrectActual: 1. FSV Mainz 05 win at HT
Correct Score
✓ In top 12
0 – 3
8.9%
0 – 2
8.4%
1 – 3
7.9%
1 – 2
7.4%
0 – 4
7.1%
1 – 4
6.5%
1 – 1
5.2%
0 – 1
5.1%
0 – 5
Actual
1 – 5
4.3%
2 – 3
3.6%
2 – 2
3.3%
Asian Handicap — Hamburger SV
| Handicap | Hamburger SV covers | Push | 1. FSV Mainz 05 covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 1% | — | 99% |
| -2 | 1% | 2% | 98% |
| -1.5 | 2% | — | 98% |
| -1 | 2% | 5% | 93% |
| -0.5 | 7% | — | 93% |
| +0.5 | 19% | — | 81% |
| +1 | 19% | 17% | 64% |
| +1.5 | 36% | — | 64% |
| +2 | 36% | 20% | 44% |
| +2.5 | 56% | — | 44% |
Clean Sheet
Hamburger SV keeps clean sheet
5%
✓
1. FSV Mainz 05 keeps clean sheet
40%
✗
Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.

