Hamburger SV vs 1. FSV Mainz 05, Bundesliga 2025-26 REGULAR SEASON

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Bundesliga · 2025-26

Hamburger SV

4 – 0

Full Time

1. FSV Mainz 05

Sun 5 Oct 2025 · 15:30 UTC HT 45' · FT 45'

Overview

Match Preview

Hamburger SV vs 1. FSV Mainz 05 — Bundesliga .

Hamburger SV 34 games · 38 pts (2025/26)
1. FSV Mainz 05 34 games · 40 pts (2025/26)

Match Details

Referee Robert Hartmann

18 games this season 🟨 0.4/game ⚽ 4.1 goals/game

Standings

#	Team	P	Pts
1	FC Bayern München	34	89
2	Borussia Dortmund	34	73
3	RB Leipzig	34	65
4	VfB Stuttgart	34	62
5	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim	34	61
6	Bayer 04 Leverkusen	34	59
7	SC Freiburg	34	47
8	Eintracht Frankfurt	34	44
9	FC Augsburg	34	43
10	1. FSV Mainz 05	34	40
11	1. FC Union Berlin	34	39
12	Borussia Monchengladbach	34	38
13	Hamburger SV	34	38
14	1. FC Koln	34	32
15	SV Werder Bremen	34	32
16	VfL Wolfsburg	34	29
17	1. FC Heidenheim 1846	34	26
18	FC St. Pauli 1910	34	26

Head-to-Head

Hamburger SV 8 games · Avg 1.9 goals 1. FSV Mainz 05

Last 5 meetings

2025-10-05 Hamburger SV 4–0 1. FSV Mainz 05 2018-03-31 1. FSV Mainz 05 2–0 Hamburger SV 2017-11-04 Hamburger SV 0–1 1. FSV Mainz 05 2017-05-07 Hamburger SV 2–0 1. FSV Mainz 05 2016-12-17 1. FSV Mainz 05 1–1 Hamburger SV

Recent Form

Hamburger SV

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
05 Oct	1. FSV Mainz 05	H	4–0	W
28 Sep	1. FC Union Berlin	A	0–0	D
20 Sep	1. FC Heidenheim 1846	H	2–1	W
13 Sep	FC Bayern München	A	0–5	L
29 Aug	FC St. Pauli 1910	H	0–2	L
24 Aug	Borussia Monchengladbach	A	0–0	D

1. FSV Mainz 05

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
05 Oct	Hamburger SV	A	0–4	L
27 Sep	Borussia Dortmund	H	0–2	L
20 Sep	FC Augsburg	A	4–1	W
13 Sep	RB Leipzig	H	0–1	L
31 Aug	VfL Wolfsburg	A	1–1	D
24 Aug	1. FC Koln	H	0–1	L

Season Stats

Hamburger SV		1. FSV Mainz 05
#13	Position	#10
38	Points	40
34	Played	34
9 / 11 / 14	W / D / L	10 / 10 / 14
40	Scored	44
54	Conceded	53
-14	GD	-9
1.12	PPG	1.18
26%	Win %	29%

Key Stats

25% Both Teams to Score
H2H (8 games)

13% Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history

18% Clean Sheets
Hamburger SV this season

12% Clean Sheets
1. FSV Mainz 05 this season

Hamburger SV are 13th (38 pts). 1. FSV Mainz 05 are 10th (40 pts).

Goal Timing (This Season)

Hamburger SV

0-15

1/–

16-30

–/4

31-45

2/3

46-60

3/3

61-75

3/–

76+

–/4

■ Scored ■ Conceded

1. FSV Mainz 05

0-15

4/1

16-30

1/1

31-45

3/1

46-60

1/2

61-75

–/1

76+

2/5

■ Scored ■ Conceded

Events

Match Events

0' The match kicks off with home fans waiting with anticipation for Hamburger SV to score. At the same time, 1. FSV Mainz 05 does not seem to pull back! Let’s get it on!
Another three points for Hamburger SV.

Lineups

Hamburger SV Lineups

1. FSV Mainz 05 Lineups

H2H

Head to Head

Hamburger SV Form

2025-10-05 Hamburger SV 4–0 1. FSV Mainz 05 W 2025-09-28 1. FC Union Berlin 0–0 Hamburger SV D 2025-09-20 Hamburger SV 2–1 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 W 2025-09-13 FC Bayern München 5–0 Hamburger SV L 2025-08-29 Hamburger SV 0–2 FC St. Pauli 1910 L 2025-08-24 Borussia Monchengladbach 0–0 Hamburger SV D

1. FSV Mainz 05 Form

2025-10-05 Hamburger SV 4–0 1. FSV Mainz 05 L 2025-09-27 1. FSV Mainz 05 0–2 Borussia Dortmund L 2025-09-20 FC Augsburg 1–4 1. FSV Mainz 05 W 2025-09-13 1. FSV Mainz 05 0–1 RB Leipzig L 2025-08-31 VfL Wolfsburg 1–1 1. FSV Mainz 05 D 2025-08-24 1. FSV Mainz 05 0–1 1. FC Koln L

Predictions

Prediction accuracy

2 / 4

1.69 Hamburger SV xG

Expected Goals

Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo

1.14 1. FSV Mainz 05 xG

I would bet for: Both teams to score 56%

Match Result

✓ Correct

Hamburger SV51% Draw25% 1. FSV Mainz 0524%

Actual: Hamburger SV win

Both Teams to Score

✗ Wrong

Yes56% 0% No44%

Avg goals/match: 2.83

Actual: No — clean sheet

Over / Under Goals

✓ O/U 2.5

Line	Over	Under
± 0.5	92%	8%
± 1.5	77%	23%
± 2.5	53%	47%
± 3.5	32%	68%
± 4.5	16%	84%

Double Chance

Hamburger SV or Draw

76%

Draw or 1. FSV Mainz 05

49%

Hamburger SV or 1. FSV Mainz 05

75%

Half-Time Result

✗ Wrong

Hamburger SV35% Draw45% 1. FSV Mainz 0520%

Actual: Hamburger SV win at HT

Correct Score

✗ 4–0 not predicted

4 – 0

Actual

1 – 1

12.3%

2 – 1

9.2%

1 – 0

9.1%

2 – 0

8.2%

0 – 0

7.7%

1 – 2

6.3%

0 – 1

5.8%

2 – 2

5.3%

3 – 1

5.2%

3 – 0

4.5%

0 – 2

3.8%

3 – 2

3.1%

Asian Handicap — Hamburger SV

Handicap	Hamburger SV covers	Push	1. FSV Mainz 05 covers
-2.5	12%	—	88%
-2	12%	15%	73%
-1.5	27%	—	73%
-1	27%	22%	51%
-0.5	49%	—	51%
+0.5	75%	—	25%
+1	75%	15%	10%
+1.5	90%	—	10%
+2	90%	7%	3%
+2.5	97%	—	3%

Clean Sheet

Hamburger SV keeps clean sheet

33% ✗

1. FSV Mainz 05 keeps clean sheet

19% ✓

Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.