FC St. Pauli 1910 vs 1. FSV Mainz 05, Bundesliga 2025-26 REGULAR SEASON

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Bundesliga · 2025-26

FC St. Pauli 1910

1 – 2

Full Time

1. FSV Mainz 05

Sun 3 May 2026 · 13:30 UTC Millerntor-Stadion 29,546 HT 45' · FT 45'

0–1 6' Phillip Tietz

0–2 40' Philipp Mwene

Abdoulie Ceesay 87' 1–2

Y 68' Daniel Batz

Karol Mets 89' Y

Connor Metcalfe 90' Y

Abdoulie Ceesay 90' Y

Overview

Match Preview

FC St. Pauli 1910 vs 1. FSV Mainz 05 — Bundesliga at Millerntor-Stadion.

FC St. Pauli 1910 34 games · 26 pts (2025/26)
1. FSV Mainz 05 34 games · 40 pts (2025/26)

Match Details

Referee Timo Gerach
Assistant 1 Alexander Sather
Assistant 2 Patrick Kessel

15 games this season 🟨 1.1/game ⚽ 5.7 goals/game

Standings

#	Team	P	Pts
1	FC Bayern München	34	89
2	Borussia Dortmund	34	73
3	RB Leipzig	34	65
4	VfB Stuttgart	34	62
5	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim	34	61
6	Bayer 04 Leverkusen	34	59
7	SC Freiburg	34	47
8	Eintracht Frankfurt	34	44
9	FC Augsburg	34	43
10	1. FSV Mainz 05	34	40
11	1. FC Union Berlin	34	39
12	Borussia Monchengladbach	34	38
13	Hamburger SV	34	38
14	1. FC Koln	34	32
15	SV Werder Bremen	34	32
16	VfL Wolfsburg	34	29
17	1. FC Heidenheim 1846	34	26
18	FC St. Pauli 1910	34	26

Head-to-Head

FC St. Pauli 1910 4 games · Avg 2.0 goals 1. FSV Mainz 05

Last 5 meetings

2026-05-03 FC St. Pauli 1910 1–2 1. FSV Mainz 05 2025-12-21 1. FSV Mainz 05 0–0 FC St. Pauli 1910 2025-02-22 1. FSV Mainz 05 2–0 FC St. Pauli 1910 2024-10-05 FC St. Pauli 1910 0–3 1. FSV Mainz 05

Recent Form

FC St. Pauli 1910

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
03 May	1. FSV Mainz 05	H	1–2	L
25 Apr	1. FC Heidenheim 1846	A	0–2	L
17 Apr	1. FC Koln	H	1–1	D
11 Apr	FC Bayern München	H	0–5	L
05 Apr	1. FC Union Berlin	A	1–1	D
22 Mar	SC Freiburg	H	1–2	L

1. FSV Mainz 05

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
03 May	FC St. Pauli 1910	A	2–1	W
25 Apr	FC Bayern München	H	3–4	L
19 Apr	Borussia Monchengladbach	A	1–1	D
12 Apr	SC Freiburg	H	0–1	L
04 Apr	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim	A	2–1	W
22 Mar	Eintracht Frankfurt	H	2–1	W

Season Stats

FC St. Pauli 1910		1. FSV Mainz 05
#18	Position	#10
26	Points	40
34	Played	34
6 / 8 / 20	W / D / L	10 / 10 / 14
29	Scored	44
60	Conceded	53
-31	GD	-9
0.76	PPG	1.18
18%	Win %	29%

Key Stats

25% Both Teams to Score
H2H (4 games)

50% Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history

15% Clean Sheets
FC St. Pauli 1910 this season

12% Clean Sheets
1. FSV Mainz 05 this season

FC St. Pauli 1910 are 18th (26 pts). 1. FSV Mainz 05 are 10th (40 pts).

Goal Timing (This Season)

FC St. Pauli 1910

0-15

–/3

16-30

1/–

31-45

–/3

46-60

1/4

61-75

1/1

76+

2/4

■ Scored ■ Conceded

1. FSV Mainz 05

0-15

4/1

16-30

1/1

31-45

3/1

46-60

1/2

61-75

–/1

76+

2/5

■ Scored ■ Conceded

Events

Match Events

0' It’s Showtime! The match between FC St. Pauli 1910 and 1. FSV Mainz 05 is underway.
5' Kacper Potulski has certainly something to prove this evening. He made 34 appearances with only 0 goals this season.
6' Goal! Phillip Tietz scores his 23 goal in 169 matches.
11' The travelling 1. FSV Mainz 05 supporters hardly appreciate their team being pressed down to the backline.
16' The referee is likely to let players tackle, as he already missed some meaty challenges during opening seconds. He is still to establish what should not be done by the players and what is acceptable on the pitch. It’s going to be a tough game for Arkadiusz Pyrka suffering a number of foals already.
21' Not even hints on scoring a goal over the last 21 minutes.
26' 1. FSV Mainz 05 seems to be on a short break. The game is mainly concentrated in the center. It’s high time they got back to action. Otherwise, it looks like a goalless game.
31' Both teams are passing the ball around with high level of urgency. 1. FSV Mainz 05 needs to do something about it to get closer to the goal.
36' It looks like no one’s ball. 1. FSV Mainz 05 is used to counterattacking playing. None of the sides are ready to take the lead.
40' Goal! Philipp Mwene scores his 9 goal in 436 matches.
45' The teams are not in a rush to score plenty of goals. It might look strange considering 1. FSV Mainz 05 that had 436 games and scored 398 goals.
50' 1. FSV Mainz 05 looks like a favorite considering 1 games won in last 2 matches with its main striker Philipp Mwene scoring 1 goals.
55' Spectators do not have much to choose from both teams. The sides had several scoring chances but they still need a bit more than just a sight of a goal.
60' It’s high time Urs Fischer made some changes to put the his team’s game back to action.
65' Although teams showed high tempo form the start, they seem to slow down a bit. Both sides really need to catch a fire. Otherwise, we have another goalless match.
68' It’s a booking for 1. FSV Mainz 05 player. Daniel Batz gets a card.
73' FC St. Pauli 1910 is defending very well tonight not leaving a chance for their rivals to get through for a goal.
78' While players are taking a pause, let’s have a look at their stats. The teams met 2 times this season with 1. FSV Mainz 05 winning 50% of all matches.
83' 1. FSV Mainz 05 started playing very sharply right from the kick off. However, it slowed down the tempo rapidly by 83.
87' GOAL! Abdoulie Ceesay scores on 87. Assisted by Martijn Kaars
89' The referee shows FC St. Pauli 1910 player a card on 89.
90' A meaty challenge results in booking for Connor Metcalfe on 90.
The referee blows the final whistle. Sensational lose for FC St. Pauli 1910.

Lineups

FC St. Pauli 1910 Lineups

3-4-2-1

Starting XI

Bench

Coach Alexander Blessin

1. FSV Mainz 05 Lineups

3-5-2

Starting XI

Bench

Coach Urs Fischer

H2H

H2H Top Scorers

Player	Goals
Jonathan Burkardt	2
Abdoulie Ceesay	1
Philipp Mwene	1
Phillip Tietz	1
Armindo Sieb	1
Paul Nebel	1
Jae-sung Lee	1

Head to Head

FC St. Pauli 1910 Form

2026-05-03 FC St. Pauli 1910 1–2 1. FSV Mainz 05 L 2026-04-25 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 2–0 FC St. Pauli 1910 L 2026-04-17 FC St. Pauli 1910 1–1 1. FC Koln D 2026-04-11 FC St. Pauli 1910 0–5 FC Bayern München L 2026-04-05 1. FC Union Berlin 1–1 FC St. Pauli 1910 D 2026-03-22 FC St. Pauli 1910 1–2 SC Freiburg L

1. FSV Mainz 05 Form

2026-05-03 FC St. Pauli 1910 1–2 1. FSV Mainz 05 W 2026-04-25 1. FSV Mainz 05 3–4 FC Bayern München L 2026-04-19 Borussia Monchengladbach 1–1 1. FSV Mainz 05 D 2026-04-12 1. FSV Mainz 05 0–1 SC Freiburg L 2026-04-04 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 1–2 1. FSV Mainz 05 W 2026-03-22 1. FSV Mainz 05 2–1 Eintracht Frankfurt W

Predictions

Prediction accuracy

1 / 4

0.81 FC St. Pauli 1910 xG

Expected Goals

Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo

1.68 1. FSV Mainz 05 xG

I would bet for: Under 2.5 goals 55%

Match Result

✓ Correct

FC St. Pauli 191020% Draw27% 1. FSV Mainz 0553%

Actual: 1. FSV Mainz 05 win

Both Teams to Score

✗ Wrong

Yes46% 0% No54%

Avg goals/match: 2.49

Actual: Yes — both scored

Over / Under Goals

✗ O/U 2.5

Line	Over	Under
± 0.5	90%	10%
± 1.5	71%	29%
± 2.5	45%	55%
± 3.5	24%	76%
± 4.5	11%	89%

Double Chance

FC St. Pauli 1910 or Draw

47%

Draw or 1. FSV Mainz 05

80%

FC St. Pauli 1910 or 1. FSV Mainz 05

73%

Half-Time Result

✗ Wrong

FC St. Pauli 191014% Draw47% 1. FSV Mainz 0539%

Actual: 1. FSV Mainz 05 win at HT

Correct Score

✓ In top 12

0 – 1

13.1%

1 – 1

12.1%

0 – 2

11.4%

0 – 0

10.3%

1 – 2

Actual

0 – 3

6.3%

1 – 0

5.7%

1 – 3

5.2%

2 – 1

4.4%

2 – 2

3.8%

0 – 4

2.7%

2 – 0

2.6%

Asian Handicap — FC St. Pauli 1910

Handicap	FC St. Pauli 1910 covers	Push	1. FSV Mainz 05 covers
-2.5	1%	—	99%
-2	1%	4%	95%
-1.5	5%	—	95%
-1	5%	11%	83%
-0.5	17%	—	83%
+0.5	43%	—	57%
+1	43%	25%	32%
+1.5	68%	—	32%
+2	68%	18%	14%
+2.5	86%	—	14%

Clean Sheet

FC St. Pauli 1910 keeps clean sheet

19% ✓

1. FSV Mainz 05 keeps clean sheet

45% ✓

Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.