New York City FC vs FC Cincinnati, MLS 2025 REGULAR SEASON

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MLS · 2025

New York City FC

1 – 0

Full Time

FC Cincinnati

Sun 4 May 2025 · 19:00 UTC Citi Field HT 45' · FT 45'

Y 13' Matt Miazga

Matt Freese 39' Y

Hannes Wolf 72' Y

Justin Haak 75' Y

Y 90' Evander

Overview

Match Preview

New York City FC vs FC Cincinnati — MLS at Citi Field.

New York City FC 18 games · 26 pts (2026/26)
FC Cincinnati 18 games · 26 pts (2026/26)

Standings

#	Team	P	Pts
1	Nashville SC	18	40
2	Internacional CF Miami	18	38
3	New England Revolution	18	30
4	Chicago Fire FC	17	29
5	New York City FC	18	26
6	FC Cincinnati	18	26
7	Charlotte FC	18	25
8	New York Red Bulls	18	25
9	D.C. United SC	18	23
10	Columbus Crew SC	18	20
11	Orlando City SC	18	20
12	Toronto FC	18	17
13	Philadelphia Union	18	16
14	Montreal Impact FC	18	16
15	Atlanta United FC	18	12
16	Vancouver Whitecaps FC	17	34
17	Los Angeles FC	19	34
18	San Jose Earthquakes	18	33
19	Houston Dynamo	18	32
20	FC Dallas	18	27
21	Real Salt Lake	17	27
22	St. Louis City	18	26
23	Portland Timbers	18	24
24	Seattle Sounders FC	17	24
25	Minnesota United FC	18	24
26	Colorado Rapids SC	18	22
27	Los Angeles Galaxy	19	22
28	San Diego FC	18	21
29	Austin FC	18	17
30	Sporting Kansas City	18	14

Head-to-Head

New York City FC 15 games · Avg 4.0 goals FC Cincinnati

Last 5 meetings

2025-05-04 New York City FC 1–0 FC Cincinnati 2024-10-02 New York City FC 3–2 FC Cincinnati 2024-03-23 FC Cincinnati 1–0 New York City FC 2023-08-26 FC Cincinnati 3–0 New York City FC 2023-05-31 New York City FC 1–3 FC Cincinnati

Recent Form

New York City FC

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
04 May	FC Cincinnati	H	1–0	W
26 Apr	Toronto FC	A	1–0	W
19 Apr	New England Revolution	A	0–2	L
12 Apr	Philadelphia Union	H	1–0	W
06 Apr	Minnesota United FC	H	1–2	L
29 Mar	Atlanta United FC	A	3–4	L

FC Cincinnati

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
04 May	New York City FC	A	0–1	L
26 Apr	Sporting Kansas City	H	2–1	W
20 Apr	Chicago Fire FC	A	3–2	W
12 Apr	D.C. United SC	A	1–0	W
05 Apr	New England Revolution	H	1–0	W
30 Mar	Nashville SC	A	2–1	W

Season Stats

New York City FC		FC Cincinnati
#5	Position	#6
26	Points	26
18	Played	18
7 / 5 / 6	W / D / L	7 / 5 / 6
31	Scored	45
24	Conceded	44
+7	GD	+1
1.44	PPG	1.44
39%	Win %	39%

Key Stats

60% Both Teams to Score
H2H (15 games)

73% Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history

17% Clean Sheets
New York City FC this season

21% Clean Sheets
FC Cincinnati this season

New York City FC are 5th (26 pts). FC Cincinnati are 6th (26 pts).

Goal Timing (This Season)

New York City FC

0-15

4/–

16-30

3/4

31-45

2/4

46-60

3/2

61-75

2/2

76+

2/6

■ Scored ■ Conceded

FC Cincinnati

0-15

3/2

16-30

4/7

31-45

9/5

46-60

4/7

61-75

2/1

76+

11/3

■ Scored ■ Conceded

Top Scorers (This Season)

New York City FC

Nicolas Fernandez Marcau	11 G	3 A
Hannes Wolf	5 G	1 A
Agustin Ojeda	4 G	3 A

FC Cincinnati

Evander	10 G	4 A
Kevin Denkey	10 G	1 A
Tom Barlow	5 G

Events

Match Events

0' The ball is rolling at Citi Field. New York City FC are looking to make home advantage count against FC Cincinnati.
5' New York City FC is defending very well tonight not leaving a chance for their rivals to get through for a goal.
9' Goal! Julian Fernandez scores his 9 goal in 164 matches.
13' It’s a booking for FC Cincinnati player. Matt Miazga gets a card.
18' New York City FC currently sit in the Array table. A result here could be decisive in the race for the top positions.
23' DeAndre Yedlin needs to be pretty careful with his discipline considering 0 Red cards this season.
26' The whistle greets Keaton Parks as he departs to be replaced by Birk Risa.
31' The teams are not in a rush to score plenty of goals. It might look strange considering New York City FC that had 289 games and scored 459 goals.
36' FC Cincinnati started playing very sharply right from the kick off. However, it slowed down the tempo rapidly by 36.
39' The referee calls foul for Matt Freese. He receives a card.
44' The midfield battle is intense right now. Both New York City FC and FC Cincinnati are fighting for every inch of the pitch.
46' The FC Cincinnati bench stirs into life. Nick Hagglund is withdrawn and Sergio Santos gets his opportunity.
51' Jonathan Shore, a USA , has 0 bookings this season and will need to keep his discipline tonight.
54' A tactical swap from New York City FC — Nico Cavallo on, Andres Perea off on 54 minutes.
59' Both teams are passing the ball around with high level of urgency. New York City FC needs to do something about it to get closer to the goal.
64' Matchday of the Array and both teams know exactly what is at stake tonight.
69' Another substitution for FC Cincinnati to replace Matt Miazga by Gilberto Flores on 69 minute.
72' The referee reaches into his pocket. Out comes the card for Hannes Wolf.
75' Controversy at the stadium! Justin Haak argues furiously but the card stands.
80' The travelling FC Cincinnati supporters hardly appreciate their team being pressed down to the backline.
81' Luca Orellano makes way for Corey Baird at the 81 minute mark. A tactical switch from FC Cincinnati.
85' Alonso Martinez makes way for Monsef Bakrar at the 85 minute mark. A tactical switch from New York City FC.
90' A moment of madness from Evander on 90 minutes earns him a card. FC Cincinnati will be frustrated.
90' It is a substitution in FC Cincinnati team. Lukas Engel is replaced by Brad Smith on 90 minute.
That’s it! Another goalless match for New York City FC and FC Cincinnati (для сухой ничьи).

Lineups

New York City FC Lineups

Starting XI

Bench

Coach Pascal Jansen

FC Cincinnati Lineups

Starting XI

Bench

11
Corey Baird ↑ 81'
13
Evan Louro
2
Alvas Powell
14
Brad Smith ↑ 90'
17
Sergio Santos ↑ 46'
16
Teenage Hadebe
22
Gerardo Valenzuela ↑ 46'
19
Stefan Chirila
3
Gilberto Flores ↑ 69'

Coach Pat Noonan

H2H

H2H Top Scorers

Player	Goals
Brenner da Silva	7
Heber	6
Valentin Castellanos	4
Luciano Acosta	4
Jesus Medina	3
Alexandru Mitrita	3
Gabriel Pereira	3
Anton Tinnerholm	2

Head to Head

New York City FC Form

2025-05-04 New York City FC 1–0 FC Cincinnati W 2025-04-26 Toronto FC 0–1 New York City FC W 2025-04-19 New England Revolution 2–0 New York City FC L 2025-04-12 New York City FC 1–0 Philadelphia Union W 2025-04-06 New York City FC 1–2 Minnesota United FC L 2025-03-29 Atlanta United FC 4–3 New York City FC L

FC Cincinnati Form

2025-05-04 New York City FC 1–0 FC Cincinnati L 2025-04-26 FC Cincinnati 2–1 Sporting Kansas City W 2025-04-20 Chicago Fire FC 2–3 FC Cincinnati W 2025-04-12 D.C. United SC 0–1 FC Cincinnati W 2025-04-05 FC Cincinnati 1–0 New England Revolution W 2025-03-30 Nashville SC 1–2 FC Cincinnati W

Predictions

Prediction accuracy

1 / 4

2.03 New York City FC xG

Expected Goals

Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo

1.65 FC Cincinnati xG

I would bet for: Over 2.5 goals 70% + Both teams to score 70%

Match Result

✓ Correct

New York City FC45% Draw24% FC Cincinnati31%

Actual: New York City FC win

Both Teams to Score

✗ Wrong

Yes70% 0% No30%

Avg goals/match: 3.68

Actual: No — clean sheet

Over / Under Goals

✗ O/U 2.5

Line	Over	Under
± 0.5	96%	4%
± 1.5	88%	12%
± 2.5	70%	30%
± 3.5	49%	51%
± 4.5	31%	69%

Double Chance

New York City FC or Draw

69%

Draw or FC Cincinnati

55%

New York City FC or FC Cincinnati

76%

Half-Time Result

✗ Wrong

New York City FC35% Draw39% FC Cincinnati26%

Actual: New York City FC win at HT

Correct Score

✓ In top 12

1 – 1

9.3%

2 – 1

8.3%

1 – 2

6.8%

2 – 2

6.7%

3 – 1

5.6%

2 – 0

5.3%

1 – 0

Actual

3 – 2

4.6%

0 – 0

3.8%

2 – 3

3.7%

1 – 3

3.7%

0 – 1

3.6%

Asian Handicap — New York City FC

Handicap	New York City FC covers	Push	FC Cincinnati covers
-2.5	13%	—	87%
-2	13%	14%	73%
-1.5	27%	—	73%
-1	27%	19%	54%
-0.5	46%	—	54%
+0.5	69%	—	31%
+1	69%	15%	16%
+1.5	84%	—	16%
+2	84%	9%	6%
+2.5	94%	—	6%

Clean Sheet

New York City FC keeps clean sheet

20% ✗

FC Cincinnati keeps clean sheet

14% ✓

Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.