Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FSV Mainz 05, Bundesliga 2024-25 REGULAR SEASON

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Bundesliga · 2024-25

Borussia Dortmund

3 – 1

Full Time

1. FSV Mainz 05

Sun 30 Mar 2025 · 15:30 UTC Signal Iduna Park 81,365 HT 45' · FT 45'

Maximilian Beier 39' 1–0

Emre Can 42' 2–0

Maximilian Beier 72' 3–0

3–1 76' Paul Nebel

Yan Couto 45' Y

Nico Schlotterbeck 89' Y

Overview

Match Preview

Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FSV Mainz 05 — Bundesliga at Signal Iduna Park.

Borussia Dortmund 34 games · 73 pts (2025/26)
1. FSV Mainz 05 34 games · 40 pts (2025/26)

Match Details

Referee Daniel Schlager
Assistant 1 Sven Waschitzki
Assistant 2 Arno Blos

20 games this season 🟨 1.3/game ⚽ 8.3 goals/game 🟥 1 total

Standings

#	Team	P	Pts
1	FC Bayern München	34	89
2	Borussia Dortmund	34	73
3	RB Leipzig	34	65
4	VfB Stuttgart	34	62
5	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim	34	61
6	Bayer 04 Leverkusen	34	59
7	SC Freiburg	34	47
8	Eintracht Frankfurt	34	44
9	FC Augsburg	34	43
10	1. FSV Mainz 05	34	40
11	1. FC Union Berlin	34	39
12	Borussia Monchengladbach	34	38
13	Hamburger SV	34	38
14	1. FC Koln	34	32
15	SV Werder Bremen	34	32
16	VfL Wolfsburg	34	29
17	1. FC Heidenheim 1846	34	26
18	FC St. Pauli 1910	34	26

Head-to-Head

Borussia Dortmund 16 games · Avg 3.1 goals 1. FSV Mainz 05

Last 5 meetings

2025-03-30 Borussia Dortmund 3–1 1. FSV Mainz 05 2024-11-09 1. FSV Mainz 05 3–1 Borussia Dortmund 2024-05-11 1. FSV Mainz 05 3–0 Borussia Dortmund 2023-12-19 Borussia Dortmund 1–1 1. FSV Mainz 05 2023-05-27 Borussia Dortmund 2–2 1. FSV Mainz 05

Recent Form

Borussia Dortmund

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
30 Mar	1. FSV Mainz 05	H	3–1	W
15 Mar	RB Leipzig	A	0–2	L
12 Mar	Lille OSC	A	2–1	W
08 Mar	FC Augsburg	H	0–1	L
04 Mar	Lille OSC	H	1–1	D
01 Mar	FC St. Pauli 1910	A	2–0	W

1. FSV Mainz 05

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
30 Mar	Borussia Dortmund	A	1–3	L
15 Mar	SC Freiburg	H	2–2	D
07 Mar	Borussia Monchengladbach	A	3–1	W
01 Mar	RB Leipzig	A	2–1	W
22 Feb	FC St. Pauli 1910	H	2–0	W
16 Feb	1. FC Heidenheim 1846	A	2–0	W

Season Stats

Borussia Dortmund		1. FSV Mainz 05
#2	Position	#10
73	Points	40
34	Played	34
22 / 7 / 5	W / D / L	10 / 10 / 14
70	Scored	44
34	Conceded	53
+36	GD	-9
2.15	PPG	1.18
65%	Win %	29%

Key Stats

63% Both Teams to Score
H2H (16 games)

69% Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history

44% Clean Sheets
Borussia Dortmund this season

12% Clean Sheets
1. FSV Mainz 05 this season

Borussia Dortmund are 2nd (73 pts). 1. FSV Mainz 05 are 10th (40 pts).

Goal Timing (This Season)

Borussia Dortmund

0-15

2/1

16-30

–/–

31-45

3/2

46-60

1/–

61-75

1/–

76+

5/3

■ Scored ■ Conceded

1. FSV Mainz 05

0-15

4/1

16-30

1/1

31-45

3/1

46-60

1/2

61-75

–/1

76+

2/5

■ Scored ■ Conceded

Events

Match Events

0' And we are off! Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FSV Mainz 05 — let the football do the talking.
5' It is a cagey affair so far. Borussia Dortmund in their 4-2-3-1 trying to find a way past 1. FSV Mainz 05's compact 3-4-2-1.
10' It looks surprising 1. FSV Mainz 05 does not make any changes. Gregor Kobel has some obvious troubles when approaching to the goal.
15' A tactical chess match is unfolding here. The question is which manager blinks first.
20' A quiet spell here at Signal Iduna Park. Borussia Dortmund seem content sitting deep and soaking up pressure.
25' 1. FSV Mainz 05 fans have not had much to celebrate tonight. Their side is struggling to get forward.
30' The energy levels are beginning to show. might look to freshen things up shortly.
35' Matchday of the Array and both teams know exactly what is at stake tonight.
39' What a moment for Maximilian Beier! That strike on 39 puts his side firmly in control.
42' The deadlock is broken! Emre Can gets on the scoresheet on 42 minutes.
45' Yan Couto picks up a card and will need to be extremely careful for the remainder of this match.
50' Pascal Gross has been one of the livelier players on the pitch with 0 goals to his name this season.
55' Kaishu Sano has been disciplined this evening — perhaps mindful of those 0 cards already picked up this season.
60' Over 60 minutes have gone by without a meaningful attack. The supporters want more.
62' Daniel Svensson has so much to prove this time. He replaces Yan Couto on 62 minute.
65' Hyun-seok Hong is ready to make an impact after coming on for Jae-sung Lee at the 65 minute mark.
66' Nikolas Veratschnig has so much to prove this time. He replaces Silvan Widmer on 66 minute.
71' The 1. FSV Mainz 05 manager makes a substitution. Jonathan Burkardt departs to be replaced by Nelson Weiper.
72' Clinical. Composed. Brilliant. Maximilian Beier makes it 3-0.
76' What a moment for Paul Nebel! That strike on 76 puts his side firmly in control.
79' Another substitution for Borussia Dortmund to replace Julian Brandt by Carney Chukwuemeka on 79 minute.
84' Waldemar Anton is a natural and has been asked to do a very specific job for Borussia Dortmund tonight.
88' The 1. FSV Mainz 05 bench stirs into life. Paul Nebel is withdrawn and Armindo Sieb gets his opportunity.
89' The referee does not hesitate — a card for Nico Schlotterbeck on 89 minutes.
90' Borussia Dortmund make a change. Karim Adeyemi trudges off to be replaced by Jamie Bynoe-Gittens on 90 minutes.
The referee brings this contest to a close. Borussia Dortmund take all three points.

Lineups

Borussia Dortmund Lineups

4-2-3-1

Starting XI

13
Pascal Gross
10
Julian Brandt ↓ Carney Chukwuemeka 79'
3
Waldemar Anton ↓ Ramy Bensebaini 90'
1
Gregor Kobel
6
Salih Ozcan ↓ Niklas Sule 79'
26
Julian Ryerson
23
Emre Can
4
Nico Schlotterbeck
14
Maximilian Beier
27
Karim Adeyemi ↓ Jamie Bynoe-Gittens 90'
2
Yan Couto ↓ Daniel Svensson 62'

Bench

1. FSV Mainz 05 Lineups

3-4-2-1

Starting XI

19
Anthony Caci ↓ Arnaud Nordin 88'
27
Robin Zentner
29
Jonathan Burkardt ↓ Nelson Weiper 71'
18
Nadiem Amiri
21
Danny da Costa
30
Silvan Widmer ↓ Nikolas Veratschnig 66'
8
Paul Nebel ↓ Armindo Sieb 88'
25
Andreas Hanche-Olsen
3
Moritz Jenz
6
Kaishu Sano
7
Jae-sung Lee ↓ Hyun-seok Hong 65'

Bench

H2H

H2H Top Scorers

Player	Goals
Marco Reus	4
Jae-sung Lee	3
Jadon Sancho	3
Jonathan Burkardt	3
Erling Haaland	3
Robin Quaison	3
Julian Brandt	2
Raphael Guerreiro	2

Head to Head

Borussia Dortmund Form

2025-03-30 Borussia Dortmund 3–1 1. FSV Mainz 05 W 2025-03-15 RB Leipzig 2–0 Borussia Dortmund L 2025-03-12 Lille OSC 1–2 Borussia Dortmund W 2025-03-08 Borussia Dortmund 0–1 FC Augsburg L 2025-03-04 Borussia Dortmund 1–1 Lille OSC D 2025-03-01 FC St. Pauli 1910 0–2 Borussia Dortmund W

1. FSV Mainz 05 Form

2025-03-30 Borussia Dortmund 3–1 1. FSV Mainz 05 L 2025-03-15 1. FSV Mainz 05 2–2 SC Freiburg D 2025-03-07 Borussia Monchengladbach 1–3 1. FSV Mainz 05 W 2025-03-01 RB Leipzig 1–2 1. FSV Mainz 05 W 2025-02-22 1. FSV Mainz 05 2–0 FC St. Pauli 1910 W 2025-02-16 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 0–2 1. FSV Mainz 05 W

Predictions

Prediction accuracy

3 / 4

1.93 Borussia Dortmund xG

Expected Goals

Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo

1.25 1. FSV Mainz 05 xG

I would bet for: Both teams to score 61% + Over 2.5 goals 61%

Match Result

✓ Correct

Borussia Dortmund50% Draw25% 1. FSV Mainz 0525%

Actual: Borussia Dortmund win

Both Teams to Score

✓ Correct

Yes61% 0% No39%

Avg goals/match: 3.18

Actual: Yes — both scored

Over / Under Goals

✓ O/U 2.5

Line	Over	Under
± 0.5	94%	6%
± 1.5	82%	18%
± 2.5	61%	39%
± 3.5	39%	61%
± 4.5	22%	78%

Double Chance

Borussia Dortmund or Draw

75%

Draw or 1. FSV Mainz 05

50%

Borussia Dortmund or 1. FSV Mainz 05

75%

Half-Time Result

✗ Wrong

Borussia Dortmund38% Draw42% 1. FSV Mainz 0520%

Actual: Borussia Dortmund win at HT

Correct Score

✓ In top 12

1 – 1

10.9%

2 – 1

9.3%

2 – 0

7.7%

1 – 0

7.4%

1 – 2

6.1%

3 – 1

Actual

2 – 2

5.8%

0 – 0

5.8%

3 – 0

4.8%

0 – 1

4.5%

3 – 2

3.8%

0 – 2

3.3%

Asian Handicap — Borussia Dortmund

Handicap	Borussia Dortmund covers	Push	1. FSV Mainz 05 covers
-2.5	14%	—	86%
-2	14%	16%	70%
-1.5	30%	—	70%
-1	30%	21%	48%
-0.5	52%	—	48%
+0.5	76%	—	24%
+1	76%	14%	10%
+1.5	90%	—	10%
+2	90%	7%	3%
+2.5	97%	—	3%

Clean Sheet

Borussia Dortmund keeps clean sheet

29% ✓

1. FSV Mainz 05 keeps clean sheet

15% ✓

Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.