Thursday , 2 July 2026

1. FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund, Bundesliga 2024-25 REGULAR SEASON

Bundesliga · 2024-25
Sat 9 Nov 2024 · 14:30 UTC MEWA Arena 33,000 HT 45' · FT 45'
Jae-sung Lee 36' 1–0
1–1 40' Sehrou Guirassy pen
Jonathan Burkardt 45+3' 2–1
Paul Nebel 54' 3–1

Overview

Match Preview

1. FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia DortmundBundesliga at MEWA Arena.

Match Details

  • Referee Florian Badstubner
  • Assistant 1 Markus Schuller
  • Assistant 2 Philipp Huwe
18 games this season 🟨 0.8/game 4.5 goals/game

Recent Form

DateOpponentH/A ScoreResult
09 Nov Borussia Dortmund H 3–1 W
03 Nov SC Freiburg A 0–0 D
30 Oct FC Bayern München H 0–4 L
25 Oct Borussia Monchengladbach H 1–1 D
19 Oct RB Leipzig H 0–2 L
05 Oct FC St. Pauli 1910 A 3–0 W
DateOpponentH/A ScoreResult
09 Nov 1. FSV Mainz 05 A 1–3 L
05 Nov SK Sturm Graz H 1–0 W
02 Nov RB Leipzig H 2–1 W
29 Oct VfL Wolfsburg A 0–1 L
26 Oct FC Augsburg A 1–2 L
22 Oct Real Madrid CF A 2–5 L

Season Stats

1. FSV Mainz 05 Borussia Dortmund
#10 Position #2
40 Points 73
34 Played 34
10 / 10 / 14 W / D / L 22 / 7 / 5
44 Scored 70
53 Conceded 34
-9 GD +36
1.18 PPG 2.15
29% Win % 65%

Key Stats

63% Both Teams to Score
H2H (16 games)
69% Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history
12% Clean Sheets
1. FSV Mainz 05 this season
44% Clean Sheets
Borussia Dortmund this season

1. FSV Mainz 05 are 10th (40 pts). Borussia Dortmund are 2nd (73 pts).

Goal Timing (This Season)

1. FSV Mainz 05
0-15
4/1
16-30
1/1
31-45
3/1
46-60
1/2
61-75
/1
76+
2/5
■ Scored ■ Conceded
Borussia Dortmund
0-15
2/1
16-30
/
31-45
3/2
46-60
1/
61-75
1/
76+
5/3
■ Scored ■ Conceded

Events

Match Events

  • 0' We are underway at MEWA Arena. The crowd does wile while the referee lows the starting whistle.
  • 5' While there is no rush on the pitch, let’s have a look at some stats. Cole Campbell made 521 appearances and scored 0 goals. He is very likely to score a goal today.
  • 10' Marcel Sabitzer is putting in a real shift tonight. He has covered more ground than anyone else for Borussia Dortmund so far.
  • 15' 1. FSV Mainz 05 started playing very sharply right from the kick off. However, it slowed down the tempo rapidly by 15.
  • 20' The tempo has dropped considerably in the last few minutes. Bo Henriksen will be considering his options from the bench.
  • 25' Borussia Dortmund are keeping things exceptionally tight at the back. It will take something special to break them down.
  • 27' The referee calls foul for Emre Can. He receives a card.
  • 28' It’s a booking for Borussia Dortmund player. Nico Schlotterbeck gets a card.
  • 32' Controversy at the stadium! Paul Nebel argues furiously but the card stands.
  • 36' The South Korea Jae-sung Lee breaks the deadlock on 36 minutes. 1-0!
  • 40' A stunning finish from Sehrou Guirassy — that came from absolutely nowhere!
  • 45' It’s gonna be a card for Dominik Kohr.
  • 48' Clinical. Composed. Brilliant. Jonathan Burkardt makes it 2-1.
  • 53' While players are taking a pause, let’s have a look at their stats. The teams met 2 times this season with Borussia Dortmund winning 100% of all matches.
  • 54' Brilliant from the ! Paul Nebel makes it 3-1 with a superb finish on 54.
  • 59' A change in the Borussia Dortmund ranks — Felix Kalu Nmecha exits the field as Yannik Luhrs enters on 59.
  • 64' will be watching from the dugout nervously. His 1. FSV Mainz 05 side need to improve if they are to claim all three points.
  • 69' The 20-year-old Almugera Kabar has been sensational this season — 0 goals and 0 assists is a remarkable return.
  • 74' Julian Brandt makes way for Cole Campbell at the 74 minute mark. A tactical switch from Borussia Dortmund.
  • 79' Yannik Luhrs needs to be pretty careful with his discipline considering 0 Yellow cards this season.
  • 80' The crowd applauds Danny da Costa as he leaves the pitch. Silvan Widmer steps in for 1. FSV Mainz 05.
  • 85' The whistle greets Paul Nebel as he departs to be replaced by Hyun-seok Hong.
  • 86' Poor challenge from Robin Zentner. The referee spots it immediately and shows the card.
  • 90' Fresh legs for 1. FSV Mainz 05! Armindo Sieb comes on to replace Jae-sung Lee.
  • The referee brings this contest to a close. 1. FSV Mainz 05 take all three points.

Lineups

H2H

Predictions

Prediction accuracy
3 / 4
1.49 1. FSV Mainz 05 xG
Expected Goals
Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo
1.65 Borussia Dortmund xG
I would bet for: 1. FSV Mainz 05 or Borussia Dortmund 75% + Both teams to score 63%

Match Result

✓ Correct
1. FSV Mainz 0540% Draw25% Borussia Dortmund35%
Actual: 1. FSV Mainz 05 win

Both Teams to Score

✓ Correct
Yes63% 0% No37%
Avg goals/match: 3.14
Actual: Yes — both scored

Over / Under Goals

✓ O/U 2.5
Line Over Under
± 0.5 94%
6%
± 1.5 82%
18%
± 2.5 60%
40%
± 3.5 38%
62%
± 4.5 21%
79%

Double Chance

1. FSV Mainz 05 or Draw
65%
Draw or Borussia Dortmund
60%
1. FSV Mainz 05 or Borussia Dortmund
75%

Half-Time Result

✗ Wrong
1. FSV Mainz 0526% Draw43% Borussia Dortmund31%
Actual: 1. FSV Mainz 05 win at HT

Correct Score

✓ In top 12
1 – 1
11.5%
1 – 2
8.5%
2 – 1
7.6%
0 – 1
6.4%
2 – 2
6.3%
0 – 0
6%
0 – 2
5.9%
1 – 0
5.6%
2 – 0
4.8%
1 – 3
4.7%
3 – 1
Actual
2 – 3
3.5%

Asian Handicap — 1. FSV Mainz 05

Handicap 1. FSV Mainz 05 covers Push Borussia Dortmund covers
-2.5 6% 94%
-2 6% 10% 84%
-1.5 16% 84%
-1 16% 17% 67%
-0.5 33% 67%
+0.5 59% 41%
+1 59% 19% 21%
+1.5 79% 21%
+2 79% 12% 9%
+2.5 91% 9%

Clean Sheet

1. FSV Mainz 05 keeps clean sheet
20%
Borussia Dortmund keeps clean sheet
23%

Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.