Thursday , 2 July 2026

1. FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg, Bundesliga 2024-25 REGULAR SEASON

Bundesliga · 2024-25
Sat 15 Mar 2025 · 14:30 UTC MEWA Arena 33,305 HT 45' · FT 45'

Overview

Match Preview

1. FSV Mainz 05 vs SC FreiburgBundesliga at MEWA Arena.

Match Details

  • Referee Benjamin Brand
  • Assistant 1 Thomas Stein
  • Assistant 2 Marco Achmuller
19 games this season 🟨 0.7/game 6.3 goals/game 🟥 1 total

Recent Form

DateOpponentH/A ScoreResult
15 Mar SC Freiburg H 2–2 D
07 Mar Borussia Monchengladbach A 3–1 W
01 Mar RB Leipzig A 2–1 W
22 Feb FC St. Pauli 1910 H 2–0 W
16 Feb 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 A 2–0 W
08 Feb FC Augsburg H 0–0 D
DateOpponentH/A ScoreResult
15 Mar 1. FSV Mainz 05 A 2–2 D
08 Mar RB Leipzig H 0–0 D
02 Mar FC Augsburg A 0–0 D
21 Feb SV Werder Bremen H 5–0 W
15 Feb FC St. Pauli 1910 A 1–0 W
08 Feb 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 H 1–0 W

Season Stats

1. FSV Mainz 05 SC Freiburg
#10 Position #7
40 Points 47
34 Played 34
10 / 10 / 14 W / D / L 13 / 8 / 13
44 Scored 51
53 Conceded 57
-9 GD -6
1.18 PPG 1.38
29% Win % 38%

Key Stats

50% Both Teams to Score
H2H (16 games)
50% Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history
12% Clean Sheets
1. FSV Mainz 05 this season
18% Clean Sheets
SC Freiburg this season

1. FSV Mainz 05 are 10th (40 pts). SC Freiburg are 7th (47 pts).

Goal Timing (This Season)

1. FSV Mainz 05
0-15
4/1
16-30
1/1
31-45
3/1
46-60
1/2
61-75
/1
76+
2/5
■ Scored ■ Conceded
SC Freiburg
0-15
/3
16-30
4/
31-45
/2
46-60
3/2
61-75
3/2
76+
2/4
■ Scored ■ Conceded

Events

Match Events

  • 0' The stage is set the green flag drops! Another match against 1. FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg has kicked off!
  • 2' Chikwubuike Adamu has been a danger all night but risks an early exit having now seen a card on 2.
  • 7' SC Freiburg fans have not had much to celebrate tonight. Their side is struggling to get forward.
  • 12' The 33-year-old Christian Gunter has been sensational this season — 0 goals and 0 assists is a remarkable return.
  • 17' Spectators do not have much to choose from both teams. The sides had several scoring chances but they still need a bit more than just a sight of a goal.
  • 22' Maximilian Eggestein has been disciplined this evening — perhaps mindful of those 0 cards already picked up this season.
  • 27' 1. FSV Mainz 05 player sees a card in front of him.
  • 32' Dominik Kohr is putting in a real shift tonight. He has covered more ground than anyone else for SC Freiburg so far.
  • 34' Jonathan Burkardt is having a superb {COMPETITION} campaign — that is 4 goals this season for the .
  • 39' Nicolas Hofler has been relatively quiet despite scoring 10 goals in his last 493 appearances.
  • 43' Dominik Kohr picks up a card and will need to be extremely careful for the remainder of this match.
  • 46' Michael Gregoritsch has so much to prove this time. He replaces Chikwubuike Adamu on 46 minute.
  • 51' It looks like no one’s ball. 1. FSV Mainz 05 is used to counterattacking playing. None of the sides are ready to take the lead.
  • 56' Noah Atubolu has certainly something to prove this evening. He made 49 appearances with only 0 goals this season.
  • 58' Michael Gregoritsch doubles the advantage! 1-1 and this game is slipping away from the opposition.
  • 63' The clock is ticking and both teams know a goal could change everything at this point.
  • 68' It’s high time Julian Schuster made some changes to put the his team’s game back to action.
  • 73' It looks surprising 1. FSV Mainz 05 does not make any changes. Lucas Holer has some obvious troubles when approaching to the goal.
  • 74' Clinical. Composed. Brilliant. Andreas Hanche-Olsen makes it 2-1.
  • 76' SC Freiburg ring the changes. Maximilian Eggestein has done his job and it is now time for Nicolas Hofler to step up.
  • 79' A stunning finish from Lukas Kubler — that came from absolutely nowhere!
  • 84' A quiet spell here at MEWA Arena. SC Freiburg seem content sitting deep and soaking up pressure.
  • 85' Jan-Niklas Beste has so much to prove this time. He replaces Vincenzo Grifo on 85 minute.
  • 87' It’s gonna be a card for Lucas Holer.
  • It finishes all square. 1. FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg share the spoils 2-2.

Lineups

H2H

Predictions

Prediction accuracy
1 / 4
1.32 1. FSV Mainz 05 xG
Expected Goals
Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo
1.22 SC Freiburg xG
I would bet for: 1. FSV Mainz 05 or SC Freiburg 71%

Match Result

✗ Wrong
1. FSV Mainz 0540% Draw29% SC Freiburg31%
Actual: Draw

Both Teams to Score

✓ Correct
Yes52% 0% No48%
Avg goals/match: 2.54
Actual: Yes — both scored

Over / Under Goals

✗ O/U 2.5
Line Over Under
± 0.5 90%
10%
± 1.5 72%
28%
± 2.5 46%
54%
± 3.5 26%
74%
± 4.5 12%
88%

Double Chance

1. FSV Mainz 05 or Draw
68%
Draw or SC Freiburg
60%
1. FSV Mainz 05 or SC Freiburg
71%

Half-Time Result

✗ Wrong
1. FSV Mainz 0527% Draw48% SC Freiburg25%
Actual: 1. FSV Mainz 05 win at HT

Correct Score

✓ In top 12
1 – 1
13.6%
0 – 0
9.9%
1 – 0
9.3%
0 – 1
8.5%
2 – 1
8.1%
1 – 2
7.5%
2 – 0
6.7%
0 – 2
5.7%
2 – 2
Actual
3 – 1
3.6%
1 – 3
3.1%
3 – 0
2.9%

Asian Handicap — 1. FSV Mainz 05

Handicap 1. FSV Mainz 05 covers Push SC Freiburg covers
-2.5 6% 94%
-2 6% 11% 83%
-1.5 17% 83%
-1 17% 20% 63%
-0.5 37% 63%
+0.5 67% 33%
+1 67% 18% 14%
+1.5 86% 14%
+2 86% 10% 5%
+2.5 95% 5%

Clean Sheet

1. FSV Mainz 05 keeps clean sheet
30%
SC Freiburg keeps clean sheet
27%

Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.