Wednesday , 30 September 2026

1. FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg, Bundesliga 2025-26 REGULAR SEASON

Bundesliga · 2025-26
Sun 12 Apr 2026 · 17:30 UTC MEWA Arena 30,000 HT 45' · FT 45'
0–1 47' Lucas Holer

Overview

Match Preview

1. FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg — Bundesliga at MEWA Arena.

Match Details

  • Referee Felix Zwayer
  • Assistant 1 Robert Kempter
  • Assistant 2 Dominik Schaal
10 games this season 🟨 4.3/game ⚽ 13.5 goals/game 🟥 1 total

Recent Form

DateOpponentH/A ScoreResult
12 Apr SC Freiburg H 0–1 L
04 Apr TSG 1899 Hoffenheim A 2–1 W
22 Mar Eintracht Frankfurt H 2–1 W
15 Mar SV Werder Bremen A 2–0 W
07 Mar VfB Stuttgart H 2–2 D
28 Feb Bayer 04 Leverkusen A 1–1 D
DateOpponentH/A ScoreResult
12 Apr 1. FSV Mainz 05 A 1–0 W
09 Apr RC Celta de Vigo H 3–0 W
04 Apr FC Bayern München H 2–3 L
22 Mar FC St. Pauli 1910 A 2–1 W
19 Mar KRC Genk H 5–1 W
15 Mar 1. FC Union Berlin H 0–1 L

Season Stats

1. FSV Mainz 05 SC Freiburg
#6 Position #3
7 Points 10
4 Played 4
2 / 1 / 1 W / D / L 3 / 1 / 0
10 Scored 12
6 Conceded 3
+4 GD +9
1.75 PPG 2.50
50% Win % 75%

Key Stats

50% Both Teams to Score
H2H (16 games)
50% Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history
50% Clean Sheets
1. FSV Mainz 05 this season
50% Clean Sheets
SC Freiburg this season

1. FSV Mainz 05 are 6th (7 pts). SC Freiburg are 3rd (10 pts).

Goal Timing (This Season)

1. FSV Mainz 05
0-15
–/2
16-30
2/–
31-45
2/1
46-60
1/2
61-75
–/–
76+
5/1
■ Scored ■ Conceded
SC Freiburg
0-15
–/1
16-30
4/–
31-45
2/1
46-60
3/–
61-75
–/–
76+
3/1
■ Scored ■ Conceded

Top Scorers (This Season)

Events

Match Events

  • 0' Welcome to MEWA Arena that hosts another battle between 1. FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg.
  • 5' It looks like no one’s ball. 1. FSV Mainz 05 is used to counterattacking playing. None of the sides are ready to take the lead.
  • 10' Paul Nebel is a natural and has been asked to do a very specific job for SC Freiburg tonight.
  • 15' The tempo has dropped considerably in the last few minutes. Urs Fischer will be considering his options from the bench.
  • 20' The 20-year-old Ifechukwu Ogbus has been sensational this season — 0 goals and 0 assists is a remarkable return.
  • 25' We miss some good tackles and strikes. Is there anyone on the field to put the game back to action?
  • 30' The referee is likely to let players tackle, as he already missed some meaty challenges during opening seconds. He is still to establish what should not be done by the players and what is acceptable on the pitch. It’s going to be a tough game for Philipp Mwene suffering a number of foals already.
  • 33' The referee calls foul for Ifechukwu Ogbus. He receives a card.
  • 38' It is a cagey affair so far. 1. FSV Mainz 05 in their 3-1-4-2 trying to find a way past SC Freiburg's compact 4-2-3-1.
  • 43' has dominated the recent head-to-head record, winning 0 of the last 0 meetings.
  • 45' That looks like a foul for a card for Maximilian Eggestein.
  • 46' The referee shows SC Freiburg player a card on 46.
  • 46' Ifechukwu Ogbus makes way for Philipp Lienhart at the 46 minute mark. A tactical switch from SC Freiburg.
  • 47' Against the run of play, Lucas Holer has scored! This game has turned on its head.
  • 52' A moment of individual brilliance could settle this. Both teams are waiting for that decisive action.
  • 55' The referee shows 1. FSV Mainz 05 player a card on 55.
  • 60' 1. FSV Mainz 05 currently sit 9 in the Array table. A result here could be decisive in the race for the top positions.
  • 62' Another change for 1. FSV Mainz 05 made on 62 minute. Sota Kawasaki leaves to be changed by Nadiem Amiri.
  • 64' Jan-Niklas Beste is ready to make an impact after coming on for Cyriaque Irie at the 64 minute mark.
  • 69' Although teams showed high tempo form the start, they seem to slow down a bit. Both sides really need to catch a fire. Otherwise, we have another goalless match.
  • 73' Controversy at the stadium! Lucas Holer argues furiously but the card stands.
  • 74' The 1. FSV Mainz 05 manager makes a substitution. Paul Nebel departs to be replaced by Armindo Sieb.
  • 79' Not even hints on scoring a goal over the last 79 minutes.
  • 83' SC Freiburg make a change. Matthias Ginter trudges off to be replaced by Jordy Makengo on 83 minutes.
  • 88' The travelling SC Freiburg supporters hardly appreciate their team being pressed down to the backline.
  • 1. FSV Mainz 05 will have plenty to reflect on. SC Freiburg were simply the better side today.

Lineups

H2H

Predictions

Prediction accuracy
2 / 4
0.93 1. FSV Mainz 05 xG
Expected Goals
Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo
1.88 SC Freiburg xG
I would bet for: Markets are evenly balanced — no clear value pick.

Match Result

✓ Correct
1. FSV Mainz 0523% Draw26% SC Freiburg51%
Actual: SC Freiburg win

Both Teams to Score

✗ Wrong
Yes52% 0% No48%
Avg goals/match: 2.81
Actual: No — clean sheet

Over / Under Goals

✗ O/U 2.5
Line Over Under
± 0.5 92%
8%
± 1.5 77%
23%
± 2.5 52%
48%
± 3.5 31%
69%
± 4.5 16%
84%

Double Chance

1. FSV Mainz 05 or Draw
49%
Draw or SC Freiburg
77%
1. FSV Mainz 05 or SC Freiburg
74%

Half-Time Result

✓ Correct
1. FSV Mainz 0515% Draw44% SC Freiburg41%
Actual: Draw at HT

Correct Score

✓ In top 12
1 – 1
11.4%
0 – 1
Actual
0 – 2
10.4%
1 – 2
9.5%
0 – 0
7.8%
0 – 3
6.4%
1 – 3
6%
1 – 0
4.8%
2 – 1
4.7%
2 – 2
4.5%
0 – 4
3%
1 – 4
2.9%

Asian Handicap — 1. FSV Mainz 05

Handicap 1. FSV Mainz 05 covers Push SC Freiburg covers
-2.5 2% — 98%
-2 2% 4% 94%
-1.5 6% — 94%
-1 6% 11% 83%
-0.5 17% — 83%
+0.5 42% — 58%
+1 42% 24% 35%
+1.5 65% — 35%
+2 65% 18% 17%
+2.5 83% — 17%

Clean Sheet

1. FSV Mainz 05 keeps clean sheet
16% ✓
SC Freiburg keeps clean sheet
40% ✗

Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.