Sunday , 16 August 2026

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs 1. FSV Mainz 05, Bundesliga 2025-26 REGULAR SEASON

Bundesliga · 2025-26
Sat 4 Apr 2026 · 13:30 UTC PreZero Arena 30,150 HT 45' · FT 45'
0–1 13' Phillip Tietz
Fisnik Asllani 23' 1–1
1–2 79' Phillip Tietz

Overview

Match Preview

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs 1. FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga at PreZero Arena.

Match Details

  • Referee Harm Osmers
  • Assistant 1 Dominik Schaal
  • Assistant 2 Christian Gittelmann
5 games this season 🟨 0.2/game 3.0 goals/game

Recent Form

DateOpponentH/A ScoreResult
04 Apr 1. FSV Mainz 05 H 1–2 L
20 Mar RB Leipzig A 0–5 L
14 Mar VfL Wolfsburg H 1–1 D
07 Mar 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 A 4–2 W
28 Feb FC St. Pauli 1910 H 0–1 L
21 Feb 1. FC Köln A 2–2 D
DateOpponentH/A ScoreResult
04 Apr TSG 1899 Hoffenheim A 2–1 W
22 Mar Eintracht Frankfurt H 2–1 W
15 Mar SV Werder Bremen A 2–0 W
07 Mar VfB Stuttgart H 2–2 D
28 Feb Bayer 04 Leverkusen A 1–1 D
20 Feb Hamburger SV H 1–1 D

Season Stats

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 1. FSV Mainz 05
#11 Position #16
0 Points 0
0 Played 0
0 / 0 / 0 W / D / L 0 / 0 / 0
0 Scored 0
0 Conceded 0
+0 GD +0
PPG
Win %

Key Stats

63% Both Teams to Score
H2H (16 games)
38% Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim are 11th (0 pts). 1. FSV Mainz 05 are 16th (0 pts).

Events

Match Events

Lineups

H2H

Predictions

Prediction accuracy
2 / 4
0.43 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim xG
Expected Goals
Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo
0.87 1. FSV Mainz 05 xG
I would bet for: Under 2.5 goals 85% + 1. FSV Mainz 05 or Draw 80%

Match Result

✓ Correct
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim20% Draw38% 1. FSV Mainz 0542%
Actual: 1. FSV Mainz 05 win

Both Teams to Score

✗ Wrong
Yes22% 0% No78%
Avg goals/match: 1.3
Actual: Yes — both scored

Over / Under Goals

✗ O/U 2.5
Line Over Under
± 0.5 70%
30%
± 1.5 38%
62%
± 2.5 15%
85%
± 3.5 5%
95%
± 4.5 1%
99%

Double Chance

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim or Draw
58%
Draw or 1. FSV Mainz 05
80%
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim or 1. FSV Mainz 05
62%

Half-Time Result

✓ Correct
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim9% Draw66% 1. FSV Mainz 0525%
Actual: Draw at HT

Correct Score

✓ In top 12
0 – 0
29.9%
0 – 1
22.2%
1 – 1
11.2%
1 – 0
10%
0 – 2
9.6%
1 – 2
Actual
0 – 3
2.8%
2 – 1
2.2%
2 – 0
2.2%
1 – 3
1.5%
2 – 2
1.1%
0 – 4
0.6%

Asian Handicap — TSG 1899 Hoffenheim

Handicap TSG 1899 Hoffenheim covers Push 1. FSV Mainz 05 covers
-2.5 0% 100%
-2 0% 3% 97%
-1.5 3% 97%
-1 3% 12% 85%
-0.5 15% 85%
+0.5 58% 42%
+1 58% 27% 15%
+1.5 85% 15%
+2 85% 11% 4%
+2.5 96% 4%

Clean Sheet

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim keeps clean sheet
42%
1. FSV Mainz 05 keeps clean sheet
65%

Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.