Sunday , 16 August 2026

1. FSV Mainz 05 vs RB Leipzig, Bundesliga 2024-25 REGULAR SEASON

Bundesliga · 2024-25
Sat 19 Oct 2024 · 13:30 UTC MEWA Arena 30,100 HT 45' · FT 45'
0–1 20' Xavi Simons
0–2 37' Willi Orban

Overview

Match Preview

1. FSV Mainz 05 vs RB LeipzigBundesliga at MEWA Arena.

Match Details

  • Referee Felix Zwayer
  • Assistant 1 Robert Kempter
  • Assistant 2 Christian Dietz
16 games this season 🟨 2.7/game 10.3 goals/game

Recent Form

DateOpponentH/A ScoreResult
19 Oct RB Leipzig H 0–2 L
05 Oct FC St. Pauli 1910 A 3–0 W
28 Sep 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 H 0–2 L
20 Sep FC Augsburg A 3–2 W
15 Sep SV Werder Bremen H 1–2 L
31 Aug VfB Stuttgart A 3–3 D
DateOpponentH/A ScoreResult
19 Oct 1. FSV Mainz 05 A 2–0 W
06 Oct 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 A 1–0 W
02 Oct Juventus FC H 2–3 L
28 Sep FC Augsburg H 4–0 W
22 Sep FC St. Pauli 1910 A 0–0 D
19 Sep Club Atlético de Madrid A 1–2 L

Season Stats

1. FSV Mainz 05 RB Leipzig
#16 Position #9
0 Points 0
0 Played 0
0 / 0 / 0 W / D / L 0 / 0 / 0
0 Scored 0
0 Conceded 0
+0 GD +0
PPG
Win %

Key Stats

55% Both Teams to Score
H2H (20 games)
60% Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history

1. FSV Mainz 05 are 16th (0 pts). RB Leipzig are 9th (0 pts).

Events

Match Events

  • 0' Packed stands, loud atmosphere — 1. FSV Mainz 05 and RB Leipzig get this one started.
  • 5' It is a cagey affair so far. 1. FSV Mainz 05 in their 3-4-2-1 trying to find a way past RB Leipzig's compact 4-2-2-2.
  • 10' It looks like no one’s ball. 1. FSV Mainz 05 is used to counterattacking playing. None of the sides are ready to take the lead.
  • 15' 1. FSV Mainz 05 are deployed in a 3-4-2-1 today, looking to exploit space against RB Leipzig's 4-2-2-2 shape.
  • 20' What a strike from Xavi Simons! The score is 0-1.
  • 25' The teams are not in a rush to score plenty of goals. It might look strange considering RB Leipzig that had 513 games and scored 719 goals.
  • 30' The 21-year-old Antonio Nusa has been sensational this season — 1 goals and 0 assists is a remarkable return.
  • 35' The referee is likely to let players tackle, as he already missed some meaty challenges during opening seconds. He is still to establish what should not be done by the players and what is acceptable on the pitch. It’s going to be a tough game for Amadou Haidara suffering a number of foals already.
  • 37' Willi Orban has been a constant threat and now delivers with a goal on 37 minutes.
  • 42' The tempo has dropped considerably in the last few minutes. Marco Rose will be considering his options from the bench.
  • 47' 1. FSV Mainz 05 are keeping things exceptionally tight at the back. It will take something special to break them down.
  • 52' Spectators do not have much to choose from both teams. The sides had several scoring chances but they still need a bit more than just a sight of a goal.
  • 53' It’s a booking for RB Leipzig player. Amadou Haidara gets a card.
  • 56' Another change for RB Leipzig made on 56 minute. Amadou Haidara leaves to be changed by Kevin Kampl.
  • 59' 1. FSV Mainz 05 manager makes another effort to make the tables turned. Paul Nebel is hanging Armindo Sieb on the field on 59 minute.
  • 60' RB Leipzig receives a card for a hard tackle on 60.
  • 65' Spectators are craving for more action. Both teams play very cautiously. They need to put some more energy.
  • 70' will be watching from the dugout nervously. His 1. FSV Mainz 05 side need to improve if they are to claim all three points.
  • 73' A tactical swap from RB LeipzigEljif Elmas on, Arthur Vermeeren off on 73 minutes.
  • 74' The supporters are chanting for Nelson Weiper. He replaces Jae-sung Lee on 74 minute.
  • 79' Both keepers have barely been tested. 1. FSV Mainz 05 and RB Leipzig are cancelling each other out in the centre of the park.
  • 84' Another change for RB Leipzig made on 84 minute. Lois Openda leaves to be changed by Yussuf Poulsen.
  • 87' Another substitution for 1. FSV Mainz 05 to replace Maxim Leitsch by Silvan Widmer on 87 minute.
  • 89' RB Leipzig receives a card for a hard tackle on 89.
  • 90' A meaty challenge results in booking for Paul Nebel on 90.
  • It finishes all square. 1. FSV Mainz 05 and RB Leipzig share the spoils 0-2.

Lineups

H2H

Predictions

Prediction accuracy
2 / 4
0.33 1. FSV Mainz 05 xG
Expected Goals
Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo
0.63 RB Leipzig xG
I would bet for: Under 2.5 goals 92% + Under — clean sheet likely 84%

Match Result

✗ Wrong
1. FSV Mainz 0521% Draw44% RB Leipzig35%
Actual: RB Leipzig win

Both Teams to Score

✓ Correct
Yes16% 0% No84%
Avg goals/match: 0.96
Actual: No — clean sheet

Over / Under Goals

✓ O/U 2.5
Line Over Under
± 0.5 59%
41%
± 1.5 26%
74%
± 2.5 8%
92%
± 3.5 2%
98%
± 4.5 1%
99%

Double Chance

1. FSV Mainz 05 or Draw
66%
Draw or RB Leipzig
79%
1. FSV Mainz 05 or RB Leipzig
56%

Half-Time Result

✗ Wrong
1. FSV Mainz 057% Draw74% RB Leipzig19%
Actual: RB Leipzig win at HT

Correct Score

✓ In top 12
0 – 0
41.3%
0 – 1
22.2%
1 – 0
10.7%
1 – 1
9.3%
0 – 2
Actual
1 – 2
2.9%
2 – 0
1.7%
2 – 1
1.4%
0 – 3
1.4%
1 – 3
0.7%
2 – 2
0.6%
0 – 4
0.2%

Asian Handicap — 1. FSV Mainz 05

Handicap 1. FSV Mainz 05 covers Push RB Leipzig covers
-2.5 0% 100%
-2 0% 2% 98%
-1.5 2% 98%
-1 2% 12% 86%
-0.5 14% 86%
+0.5 65% 35%
+1 65% 25% 9%
+1.5 91% 9%
+2 91% 7% 2%
+2.5 98% 2%

Clean Sheet

1. FSV Mainz 05 keeps clean sheet
54%
RB Leipzig keeps clean sheet
72%

Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.