FC St. Pauli 1910 vs 1. FSV Mainz 05, Bundesliga 2024-25 REGULAR SEASON
Overview
Match Preview
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs 1. FSV Mainz 05 — Bundesliga at Millerntor-Stadion.
- FC St. Pauli 1910 34 games · 26 pts (2025/26)
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 34 games · 40 pts (2025/26)
Match Details
- Referee Christian Dingert
- Assistant 1 Benedikt Kempkes
- Assistant 2 Alexander Sather
14 games this season
🟨 0.5/game
⚽ 3.4 goals/game
Standings
| # | Team | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Bayern München | 34 | 89 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 34 | 73 |
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 65 |
| 4 | VfB Stuttgart | 34 | 62 |
| 5 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 34 | 61 |
| 6 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 34 | 59 |
| 7 | SC Freiburg | 34 | 47 |
| 8 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 34 | 44 |
| 9 | FC Augsburg | 34 | 43 |
| 10 | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 34 | 40 |
| 11 | 1. FC Union Berlin | 34 | 39 |
| 12 | Borussia Monchengladbach | 34 | 38 |
| 13 | Hamburger SV | 34 | 38 |
| 14 | 1. FC Koln | 34 | 32 |
| 15 | SV Werder Bremen | 34 | 32 |
| 16 | VfL Wolfsburg | 34 | 29 |
| 17 | 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | 34 | 26 |
| 18 | FC St. Pauli 1910 | 34 | 26 |
Head-to-Head
Last 5 meetings
Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | H/A | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Oct | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | H | 0–3 | L |
| 28 Sep | SC Freiburg | A | 3–0 | W |
| 22 Sep | RB Leipzig | H | 0–0 | D |
| 15 Sep | FC Augsburg | A | 1–3 | L |
| 30 Aug | 1. FC Union Berlin | A | 0–1 | L |
| 25 Aug | 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | H | 0–2 | L |
| Date | Opponent | H/A | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Oct | FC St. Pauli 1910 | A | 3–0 | W |
| 28 Sep | 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | H | 0–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | FC Augsburg | A | 3–2 | W |
| 15 Sep | SV Werder Bremen | H | 1–2 | L |
| 31 Aug | VfB Stuttgart | A | 3–3 | D |
| 24 Aug | 1. FC Union Berlin | H | 1–1 | D |
Season Stats
| FC St. Pauli 1910 | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | |
|---|---|---|
| #18 | Position | #10 |
| 26 | Points | 40 |
| 34 | Played | 34 |
| 6 / 8 / 20 | W / D / L | 10 / 10 / 14 |
| 29 | Scored | 44 |
| 60 | Conceded | 53 |
| -31 | GD | -9 |
| 0.76 | PPG | 1.18 |
| 18% | Win % | 29% |
Key Stats
25%
Both Teams to Score
H2H (4 games)
H2H (4 games)
50%
Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history
H2H history
15%
Clean Sheets
FC St. Pauli 1910 this season
FC St. Pauli 1910 this season
12%
Clean Sheets
1. FSV Mainz 05 this season
1. FSV Mainz 05 this season
FC St. Pauli 1910 are 18th (26 pts). 1. FSV Mainz 05 are 10th (40 pts).
Goal Timing (This Season)
FC St. Pauli 1910
0-15
–/3
16-30
1/–
31-45
–/3
46-60
1/4
61-75
1/1
76+
2/4
■ Scored ■ Conceded
1. FSV Mainz 05
0-15
4/1
16-30
1/1
31-45
3/1
46-60
1/2
61-75
–/1
76+
2/5
■ Scored ■ Conceded
Events
Match Events
- 0' The game is set. FC St. Pauli 1910 kicks off things out of here…
- 5' The Germany Jonathan Burkardt breaks the deadlock on 5 minutes. 0-1!
- 10' Although teams showed high tempo form the start, they seem to slow down a bit. Both sides really need to catch a fire. Otherwise, we have another goalless match.
- 15' FC St. Pauli 1910 are enjoying more possession but struggling to find a way through a disciplined 1. FSV Mainz 05 backline.
- 16' A goal from the Germany international Armindo Sieb! He fires home on 16 to make it 0-2!
- 20' 1. FSV Mainz 05 receives a card for a hard tackle on 20.
- 25' A tactical chess match is unfolding here. The question is which manager blinks first.
- 30' 1. FSV Mainz 05 have won 398 goals from 436 games. They will be desperate to add to that tally today.
- 35' named a 3-4-3 earlier, and opted for a 3-4-2-1 in response. A fascinating tactical duel is developing.
- 40' It looks like no one’s ball. 1. FSV Mainz 05 is used to counterattacking playing. None of the sides are ready to take the lead.
- 45' Players seem to put ease on their energy level Spectators hardly appreciate such approach. Teams need to speed up the tempo.
- 50' 1. FSV Mainz 05 come into this ranked 13 in Array. They desperately need points to push themselves up the standings.
- 55' The teams are not in a rush to score plenty of goals. It might look strange considering 1. FSV Mainz 05 that had 436 games and scored 398 goals.
- 60' Matchday of the Array and both teams know exactly what is at stake tonight.
- 62' A stunning finish from Jonathan Burkardt — that came from absolutely nowhere!
- 63' The FC St. Pauli 1910 manager makes a substitution. Robert Wagner departs to be replaced by Morgan Guilavogui.
- 65' A tactical swap from 1. FSV Mainz 05 — Paul Nebel on, Armindo Sieb off on 65 minutes.
- 70' Both keepers have barely been tested. FC St. Pauli 1910 and 1. FSV Mainz 05 are cancelling each other out in the centre of the park.
- 75' Neither side is committing men forward. This has all the hallmarks of a tense, tactical contest.
- 79' Moritz Jenz is having his name booked by the referee on 79.
- 83' Nadiem Amiri makes way for Hyun-seok Hong at the 83 minute mark. A tactical switch from 1. FSV Mainz 05.
- 88' Dominik Kohr is having his name booked by the referee on 88.
- 90' Another change for 1. FSV Mainz 05 made on 90 minute. Jonathan Burkardt leaves to be changed by Nelson Weiper.
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 celebrates a vital win. Three points that could prove pivotal come season's end.
Lineups
FC St. Pauli 1910 Lineups
3-4-3Starting XI
- 11
- 5
- 3
- 7
- 8
-
17
Oladapo Afolayan ↓ Danel Sinani 63'
- 22
- 39
- 2
-
26
Elias Saad ↓ Andreas Albers 90'
-
23
Philipp Treu ↓ Lars Ritzka 83'
Bench
-
21
Lars Ritzka ↑ 83'
- 25
-
15
Danel Sinani ↑ 63'
- 1
-
19
Andreas Albers ↑ 90'
-
18
Scott Banks ↑ 83'
-
29
Morgan Guilavogui ↑ 63'
- 4
- 14
Coach
Alexander Blessin
1. FSV Mainz 05 Lineups
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 19
- 31
- 2
- 27
- 29
-
18
Nadiem Amiri ↓ Hyun-seok Hong 83'
- 5
-
11
Armindo Sieb ↓ Paul Nebel 65'
- 3
- 6
- 7
Bench
- 16
- 9
- 21
- 30
-
8
Paul Nebel ↑ 65'
- 1
- 17
-
44
Nelson Weiper ↑ 90'
-
14
Hyun-seok Hong ↑ 83'
Coach
Bo Henriksen
H2H
H2H Top Scorers
| Player | Goals |
|---|---|
| Jonathan Burkardt | 2 |
| Paul Nebel | 1 |
| Jae-sung Lee | 1 |
| Abdoulie Ceesay | 1 |
| Philipp Mwene | 1 |
| Phillip Tietz | 1 |
| Armindo Sieb | 1 |
Head to Head
FC St. Pauli 1910 Form
2024-10-05
FC St. Pauli 1910
0–3
1. FSV Mainz 05
L
2024-09-28
SC Freiburg
0–3
FC St. Pauli 1910
W
2024-09-22
FC St. Pauli 1910
0–0
RB Leipzig
D
2024-09-15
FC Augsburg
3–1
FC St. Pauli 1910
L
2024-08-30
1. FC Union Berlin
1–0
FC St. Pauli 1910
L
2024-08-25
FC St. Pauli 1910
0–2
1. FC Heidenheim 1846
L
1. FSV Mainz 05 Form
Predictions
Prediction accuracy
4 / 4
0.69
FC St. Pauli 1910 xG
Expected Goals
Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo
2.04
1. FSV Mainz 05 xG
I would bet for:
1. FSV Mainz 05 to win 58% + Under — clean sheet likely 56%
Match Result
✓ CorrectActual: 1. FSV Mainz 05 win
Both Teams to Score
✓ Correct
Avg goals/match: 2.73
Actual: No — clean sheet
Over / Under Goals
✓ O/U 2.5| Line | Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ± 0.5 | 92% |
|
8% |
| ± 1.5 | 75% |
|
25% |
| ± 2.5 | 51% |
|
49% |
| ± 3.5 | 29% |
|
71% |
| ± 4.5 | 15% |
|
85% |
Double Chance
FC St. Pauli 1910 or Draw
42%
Draw or 1. FSV Mainz 05
82%
FC St. Pauli 1910 or 1. FSV Mainz 05
76%
Half-Time Result
✓ CorrectActual: 1. FSV Mainz 05 win at HT
Correct Score
✓ In top 12
0 – 2
13.3%
0 – 1
12.7%
1 – 1
9.9%
1 – 2
9%
0 – 3
Actual
0 – 0
8.2%
1 – 3
6.2%
0 – 4
4.5%
1 – 0
3.7%
1 – 4
3.3%
2 – 2
3.1%
2 – 1
3%
Asian Handicap — FC St. Pauli 1910
| Handicap | FC St. Pauli 1910 covers | Push | 1. FSV Mainz 05 covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 1% | — | 99% |
| -2 | 1% | 2% | 97% |
| -1.5 | 3% | — | 97% |
| -1 | 3% | 8% | 89% |
| -0.5 | 11% | — | 89% |
| +0.5 | 32% | — | 68% |
| +1 | 32% | 24% | 43% |
| +1.5 | 57% | — | 43% |
| +2 | 57% | 21% | 22% |
| +2.5 | 78% | — | 22% |
Clean Sheet
FC St. Pauli 1910 keeps clean sheet
14%
✓
1. FSV Mainz 05 keeps clean sheet
50%
✓
Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.