VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FSV Mainz 05, Bundesliga 2024-25 REGULAR SEASON
Overview
Match Preview
VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FSV Mainz 05 — Bundesliga at Mercedes-Benz Arena.
- VfB Stuttgart 34 games · 62 pts (2025/26)
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 34 games · 40 pts (2025/26)
Match Details
- Referee Timo Gerach
- Assistant 1 Dr. Martin Thomsen (Germany)
- Assistant 2 Marcel Unger
15 games this season
🟨 1.1/game
⚽ 5.7 goals/game
Standings
| # | Team | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Bayern München | 34 | 89 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 34 | 73 |
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 65 |
| 4 | VfB Stuttgart | 34 | 62 |
| 5 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 34 | 61 |
| 6 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 34 | 59 |
| 7 | SC Freiburg | 34 | 47 |
| 8 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 34 | 44 |
| 9 | FC Augsburg | 34 | 43 |
| 10 | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 34 | 40 |
| 11 | 1. FC Union Berlin | 34 | 39 |
| 12 | Borussia Monchengladbach | 34 | 38 |
| 13 | Hamburger SV | 34 | 38 |
| 14 | 1. FC Koln | 34 | 32 |
| 15 | SV Werder Bremen | 34 | 32 |
| 16 | VfL Wolfsburg | 34 | 29 |
| 17 | 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | 34 | 26 |
| 18 | FC St. Pauli 1910 | 34 | 26 |
Head-to-Head
Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | H/A | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Aug | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | H | 3–3 | D |
| 27 Aug | SC Preussen Munster | A | 5–0 | W |
| 24 Aug | SC Freiburg | A | 1–3 | L |
| 18 May | Borussia Monchengladbach | H | 4–0 | W |
| 10 May | FC Augsburg | A | 1–0 | W |
| 04 May | FC Bayern München | H | 3–1 | W |
| Date | Opponent | H/A | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Aug | VfB Stuttgart | A | 3–3 | D |
| 24 Aug | 1. FC Union Berlin | H | 1–1 | D |
| 16 Aug | SV Wehen Wiesbaden | A | 3–1 | W |
| 18 May | VfL Wolfsburg | A | 3–1 | W |
| 11 May | Borussia Dortmund | H | 3–0 | W |
| 05 May | 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | A | 1–1 | D |
Season Stats
| VfB Stuttgart | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | |
|---|---|---|
| #4 | Position | #10 |
| 62 | Points | 40 |
| 34 | Played | 34 |
| 18 / 8 / 8 | W / D / L | 10 / 10 / 14 |
| 71 | Scored | 44 |
| 49 | Conceded | 53 |
| +22 | GD | -9 |
| 1.82 | PPG | 1.18 |
| 53% | Win % | 29% |
Key Stats
67%
Both Teams to Score
H2H (24 games)
H2H (24 games)
58%
Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history
H2H history
32%
Clean Sheets
VfB Stuttgart this season
VfB Stuttgart this season
12%
Clean Sheets
1. FSV Mainz 05 this season
1. FSV Mainz 05 this season
VfB Stuttgart are 4th (62 pts). 1. FSV Mainz 05 are 10th (40 pts).
Goal Timing (This Season)
VfB Stuttgart
0-15
2/2
16-30
3/2
31-45
3/3
46-60
2/2
61-75
2/1
76+
3/3
■ Scored ■ Conceded
1. FSV Mainz 05
0-15
4/1
16-30
1/1
31-45
3/1
46-60
1/2
61-75
–/1
76+
2/5
■ Scored ■ Conceded
Events
Match Events
- 0' Packed stands, loud atmosphere — VfB Stuttgart and 1. FSV Mainz 05 get this one started.
- 5' Both teams are passing the ball around with high level of urgency. VfB Stuttgart needs to do something about it to get closer to the goal.
- 8' Against the run of play, Enzo Millot has scored! This game has turned on its head.
- 13' Matchday of the Array and both teams know exactly what is at stake tonight.
- 15' Jamie Leweling makes no mistake. The score reads 2-0 and VfB Stuttgart are in front.
- 20' VfB Stuttgart currently sit 16 in the Array table. A result here could be decisive in the race for the top positions.
- 25' Spectators are craving for more action. Both teams play very cautiously. They need to put some more energy.
- 30' The clock is ticking and both teams know a goal could change everything at this point.
- 35' The Array continues to deliver drama. Both VfB Stuttgart and 1. FSV Mainz 05 are desperate not to drop points on matchday .
- 36' Atakan Karazor catches the referee's attention in entirely the wrong way. card on 36.
- 41' named a 4-2-3-1 earlier, and opted for a 3-4-2-1 in response. A fascinating tactical duel is developing.
- 43' A stunning finish from Nadiem Amiri — that came from absolutely nowhere!
- 46' Fabian Rieder is replacing Chris Fuhrich for the VfB Stuttgart side.
- 51' 1. FSV Mainz 05 have won 398 goals from 436 games. They will be desperate to add to that tally today.
- 53' That is a card for VfB Stuttgart. Julian Chabot will be fuming at that decision.
- 57' Enzo Millot was booked on 57.
- 62' Brilliant from the ! Jonathan Burkardt makes it 2-2 with a superb finish on 62.
- 64' The 1. FSV Mainz 05 bench stirs into life. Hyun-seok Hong is withdrawn and Armindo Sieb gets his opportunity.
- 69' Players seem to put ease on their energy level Spectators hardly appreciate such approach. Teams need to speed up the tempo.
- 73' Ermedin Demirovic is replacing Deniz Undav for the VfB Stuttgart side.
- 74' Another substitution for VfB Stuttgart to replace Jamie Leweling by El Bilal Toure on 74 minute.
- 79' A moment of madness from Silvan Widmer on 79 minutes earns him a card. 1. FSV Mainz 05 will be frustrated.
- 84' A meaty challenge results in booking for Josha Vagnoman on 84.
- 87' Another change for 1. FSV Mainz 05 made on 87 minute. Nadiem Amiri leaves to be changed by Aymen Barkok.
- 88' What a strike from Fabian Rieder! The score is 3-2.
- 89' Fresh legs for VfB Stuttgart! Ramon Hendriks comes on to replace Maximilian Mittelstadt.
- will have plenty to reflect on. were simply the better side today.
Lineups
VfB Stuttgart Lineups
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 16
- 24
- 7
- 33
-
15
Pascal Stenzel ↓ Josha Vagnoman 46'
-
27
Chris Fuhrich ↓ Fabian Rieder 46'
-
18
Jamie Leweling ↓ El Bilal Toure 74'
-
26
Deniz Undav ↓ Ermedin Demirovic 73'
- 8
- 6
- 45
Bench
-
9
Ermedin Demirovic ↑ 73'
-
4
Josha Vagnoman ↑ 46'
- 1
- 11
-
10
El Bilal Toure ↑ 74'
-
32
Fabian Rieder ↑ 46'
-
3
Ramon Hendriks ↑ 89'
- 17
- 13
Coach
Sebastian Hoeneß
1. FSV Mainz 05 Lineups
3-4-2-1Starting XI
-
19
Anthony Caci ↓ Silvan Widmer 73'
- 31
- 2
- 27
-
16
Stefan Bell ↓ Maxim Leitsch 46'
- 29
-
18
Nadiem Amiri ↓ Aymen Barkok 87'
- 25
-
14
Hyun-seok Hong ↓ Armindo Sieb 64'
- 6
- 7
Bench
- 9
- 21
-
5
Maxim Leitsch ↑ 46'
-
4
Aymen Barkok ↑ 87'
-
30
Silvan Widmer ↑ 73'
- 8
-
11
Armindo Sieb ↑ 64'
- 1
-
22
Nikolas Veratschnig ↑ 87'
Coach
Bo Henriksen
H2H
H2H Top Scorers
| Player | Goals |
|---|---|
| Sehrou Guirassy | 5 |
| Silas Wamangituka | 2 |
| Sasa Kalajdzic | 2 |
| Jamie Leweling | 2 |
| Borna Sosa | 2 |
| Alexander Hack | 2 |
| Marcus Ingvartsen | 2 |
| Enzo Millot | 1 |
Head to Head
VfB Stuttgart Form
1. FSV Mainz 05 Form
2024-08-31
VfB Stuttgart
3–3
1. FSV Mainz 05
D
2024-08-24
1. FSV Mainz 05
1–1
1. FC Union Berlin
D
2024-08-16
SV Wehen Wiesbaden
1–3
1. FSV Mainz 05
W
2024-05-18
VfL Wolfsburg
1–3
1. FSV Mainz 05
W
2024-05-11
1. FSV Mainz 05
3–0
Borussia Dortmund
W
2024-05-05
1. FC Heidenheim 1846
1–1
1. FSV Mainz 05
D
Predictions
Prediction accuracy
3 / 4
2.52
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo
1.52
1. FSV Mainz 05 xG
I would bet for:
Over 2.5 goals 75% + Both teams to score 71%
Match Result
✗ WrongActual: Draw
Both Teams to Score
✓ Correct
Avg goals/match: 4.04
Actual: Yes — both scored
Over / Under Goals
✓ O/U 2.5| Line | Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ± 0.5 | 97% |
|
3% |
| ± 1.5 | 91% |
|
9% |
| ± 2.5 | 75% |
|
25% |
| ± 3.5 | 56% |
|
44% |
| ± 4.5 | 37% |
|
63% |
Double Chance
VfB Stuttgart or Draw
77%
Draw or 1. FSV Mainz 05
44%
VfB Stuttgart or 1. FSV Mainz 05
79%
Half-Time Result
✓ CorrectActual: VfB Stuttgart win at HT
Correct Score
✗ 3–3 not predicted3 – 3Actual
2 – 1
8.3%
1 – 1
7.5%
3 – 1
6.8%
2 – 2
6.2%
2 – 0
5.7%
3 – 2
5.2%
1 – 2
5.1%
3 – 0
4.6%
4 – 1
4.3%
1 – 0
4.1%
4 – 2
3.3%
2 – 3
3.2%
Asian Handicap — VfB Stuttgart
| Handicap | VfB Stuttgart covers | Push | 1. FSV Mainz 05 covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 21% | — | 79% |
| -2 | 21% | 17% | 62% |
| -1.5 | 38% | — | 62% |
| -1 | 38% | 20% | 42% |
| -0.5 | 58% | — | 42% |
| +0.5 | 78% | — | 22% |
| +1 | 78% | 12% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | — | 10% |
| +2 | 90% | 6% | 4% |
| +2.5 | 96% | — | 4% |
Clean Sheet
VfB Stuttgart keeps clean sheet
23%
✓
1. FSV Mainz 05 keeps clean sheet
9%
✓
Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.