Wednesday , 30 September 2026

SK Sturm Graz vs RB Leipzig, Champions League 2024-25 LEAGUE STAGE

Wed 29 Jan 2025 · 20:00 UTC Merkur Arena 26,851 HT 45' · FT 45'
Arjan Malic 43' 1–0

Overview

Match Preview

SK Sturm Graz vs RB Leipzig — Champions League at Merkur Arena.

Match Details

  • Referee Mikola Balakin (Ukraine)
  • Assistant 1 Oleksandr Berkut (Ukraine)
  • Assistant 2 Viktor Matyash (Ukraine)

Head-to-Head

1
SK Sturm Graz 1 games · Avg 1.0 goals RB Leipzig

Recent Form

DateOpponentH/A ScoreResult
29 Jan RB Leipzig H 1–0 W
21 Jan Atalanta BC A 0–5 L
11 Dec Lille OSC A 2–3 L
27 Nov Girona FC H 1–0 W
05 Nov Borussia Dortmund A 0–1 L
22 Oct Sporting Clube de Portugal H 0–2 L
DateOpponentH/A ScoreResult
29 Jan SK Sturm Graz A 0–1 L
25 Jan Bayer 04 Leverkusen H 2–2 D
22 Jan Sporting Clube de Portugal H 2–1 W
18 Jan VfL Bochum 1848 A 3–3 D
15 Jan VfB Stuttgart A 1–2 L
12 Jan SV Werder Bremen H 4–2 W

Key Stats

0% Both Teams to Score
H2H (1 games)
0% Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history
0% Clean Sheets
RB Leipzig this season

Goal Timing (This Season)

RB Leipzig
0-15
–/1
16-30
–/–
31-45
–/1
46-60
1/1
61-75
–/–
76+
–/1
■ Scored ■ Conceded

Events

Match Events

  • 0' We are underway at Merkur Arena. The crowd does wile while the referee lows the starting whistle.
  • 5' RB Leipzig come into this ranked in Array. They desperately need points to push themselves up the standings.
  • 10' It is a cagey affair so far. SK Sturm Graz in their 4-1-2-1-2 trying to find a way past RB Leipzig's compact 3-4-1-2.
  • 15' looks like a favorite considering 0 games won in last 0 matches with its main striker scoring goals.
  • 20' The clock is ticking and both teams know a goal could change everything at this point.
  • 25' Not even hints on scoring a goal over the last 25 minutes.
  • 30' Although teams showed high tempo form the start, they seem to slow down a bit. Both sides really need to catch a fire. Otherwise, we have another goalless match.
  • 35' Kjell Scherpen is putting in a real shift tonight. He has covered more ground than anyone else for RB Leipzig so far.
  • 40' SK Sturm Graz are enjoying more possession but struggling to find a way through a disciplined RB Leipzig backline.
  • 41' Amadou Haidara has been a danger all night but risks an early exit having now seen a card on 41.
  • 43' Against the run of play, Arjan Malic has scored! This game has turned on its head.
  • 48' RB Leipzig fans have not had much to celebrate tonight. Their side is struggling to get forward.
  • 51' A meaty challenge results in booking for Dimitri Lavalee on 51.
  • 56' will be watching from the dugout nervously. His SK Sturm Graz side need to improve if they are to claim all three points.
  • 61' SK Sturm Graz started playing very sharply right from the kick off. However, it slowed down the tempo rapidly by 61.
  • 63' Seedy Jatta catches the referee's attention in entirely the wrong way. card on 63.
  • 65' It is a substitution in RB Leipzig team. Christoph Baumgartner is replaced by David Raum on 65 minute.
  • 70' Malick Yalcouye has been one of the livelier players on the pitch with 2 goals to his name this season.
  • 71' Castello Lukeba has so much to prove this time. He replaces El Chadaille Bitshiabu on 71 minute.
  • 74' Amady Camara has so much to prove this time. He replaces Seedy Jatta on 74 minute.
  • 79' The Array continues to deliver drama. Both SK Sturm Graz and RB Leipzig are desperate not to drop points on matchday .
  • 84' The whistle greets Lutsharel Geertruida as he departs to be replaced by Lukas Klostermann.
  • 86' A tactical swap from SK Sturm Graz — Stefan Hierlander on, Jon Stankovic off on 86 minutes.
  • 90' SK Sturm Graz ring the changes. William Boving has done his job and it is now time for Lovro Zvonarek to step up.
  • The final whistle goes. A composed, disciplined performance from SK Sturm Graz to claim maximum points.

Lineups

Predictions

Prediction accuracy
3 / 4
1.27 SK Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo
0.78 RB Leipzig xG
I would bet for: Under 2.5 goals 67% + Under — clean sheet likely 60%

Match Result

✓ Correct
SK Sturm Graz48% Draw30% RB Leipzig22%
Actual: SK Sturm Graz win

Both Teams to Score

✓ Correct
Yes40% 0% No60%
Avg goals/match: 2.05
Actual: No — clean sheet

Over / Under Goals

✓ O/U 2.5
Line Over Under
± 0.5 85%
15%
± 1.5 61%
39%
± 2.5 33%
67%
± 3.5 16%
84%
± 4.5 6%
94%

Double Chance

SK Sturm Graz or Draw
78%
Draw or RB Leipzig
52%
SK Sturm Graz or RB Leipzig
70%

Half-Time Result

✗ Wrong
SK Sturm Graz31% Draw53% RB Leipzig16%
Actual: SK Sturm Graz win at HT

Correct Score

✓ In top 12
0 – 0
15.3%
1 – 0
Actual
1 – 1
13.6%
2 – 0
9.9%
0 – 1
8.8%
2 – 1
7.9%
1 – 2
4.8%
3 – 0
4.1%
0 – 2
3.7%
3 – 1
3.4%
2 – 2
3.2%
3 – 2
1.4%

Asian Handicap — SK Sturm Graz

Handicap SK Sturm Graz covers Push RB Leipzig covers
-2.5 8% — 92%
-2 8% 14% 78%
-1.5 22% — 78%
-1 22% 25% 54%
-0.5 46% — 54%
+0.5 79% — 21%
+1 79% 15% 7%
+1.5 93% — 7%
+2 93% 5% 2%
+2.5 98% — 2%

Clean Sheet

SK Sturm Graz keeps clean sheet
46% ✗
RB Leipzig keeps clean sheet
29% ✓

Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.