AC Milan vs ACF Fiorentina, Serie A 2025-26 REGULAR SEASON

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Serie A · 2025-26

AC Milan

2 – 1

Full Time

ACF Fiorentina

Sun 19 Oct 2025 · 18:45 UTC HT 45' · FT 45'

Overview

Match Preview

AC Milan vs ACF Fiorentina — Serie A .

AC Milan 5 games · 11 pts (2026/27)
ACF Fiorentina 5 games · 4 pts (2026/27)

Match Details

Referee Livio Marinelli

Standings

#	Team	P	Pts
1	AS Roma	5	13
2	FC Internazionale Milano	5	13
3	SS Lazio	5	13
4	Cagliari Calcio	5	12
5	AC Milan	5	11
6	Frosinone Calcio	5	10
7	Juventus FC	5	10
8	Como 1907	5	10
9	SSC Napoli	5	7
10	US Sassuolo Calcio	5	7
11	Atalanta BC	5	6
12	US Lecce	5	6
13	Udinese Calcio	5	4
14	Torino FC	5	4
15	Parma Calcio 1913	5	4
16	AC Monza	5	4
17	ACF Fiorentina	5	4
18	Bologna FC 1909	5	2
19	Genoa CFC	5	1
20	Venezia FC	5	0

Head-to-Head

AC Milan 24 games · Avg 2.6 goals ACF Fiorentina

Last 5 meetings

2025-10-19 AC Milan 2–1 ACF Fiorentina 2025-04-05 AC Milan 2–2 ACF Fiorentina 2024-10-06 ACF Fiorentina 2–1 AC Milan 2024-03-30 ACF Fiorentina 1–2 AC Milan 2023-11-25 AC Milan 1–0 ACF Fiorentina

Recent Form

AC Milan

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
19 Oct	ACF Fiorentina	H	2–1	W
05 Oct	Juventus FC	A	0–0	D
28 Sep	SSC Napoli	H	2–1	W
20 Sep	Udinese Calcio	A	3–0	W
14 Sep	Bologna FC 1909	H	1–0	W
29 Aug	US Lecce	A	2–0	W

ACF Fiorentina

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
19 Oct	AC Milan	A	1–2	L
05 Oct	AS Roma	H	1–2	L
28 Sep	AC Pisa 1909	A	0–0	D
21 Sep	Como 1907	H	1–2	L
13 Sep	SSC Napoli	H	1–3	L
31 Aug	Torino FC	A	0–0	D

Season Stats

AC Milan		ACF Fiorentina
#5	Position	#17
11	Points	4
5	Played	5
3 / 2 / 0	W / D / L	1 / 1 / 3
10	Scored	6
4	Conceded	12
+6	GD	-6
2.20	PPG	0.80
60%	Win %	20%

Key Stats

58% Both Teams to Score
H2H (24 games)

50% Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history

40% Clean Sheets
AC Milan this season

0% Clean Sheets
ACF Fiorentina this season

AC Milan are 5th (11 pts). ACF Fiorentina are 17th (4 pts).

Goal Timing (This Season)

AC Milan

0-15

1/1

16-30

–/–

31-45

–/1

46-60

–/–

61-75

8/–

76+

–/2

■ Scored ■ Conceded

ACF Fiorentina

0-15

–/–

16-30

2/4

31-45

–/1

46-60

2/2

61-75

1/2

76+

1/3

■ Scored ■ Conceded

Top Scorers (This Season)

AC Milan

Diego Moreira	3 G
Adrien Rabiot	2 G	2 A
Alphadjo Cisse	2 G
Goncalo Ramos	1 G	1 A

ACF Fiorentina

Franco Mastantuono	3 G
Mateo Pellegrino	2 G

Events

Match Events

0' The game is set. AC Milan kicks off things out of here…
Another three points for AC Milan.

Lineups

AC Milan Lineups

ACF Fiorentina Lineups

H2H

H2H Top Scorers

Player	Goals
Rafael Leao	4
Erick Pulgar	3
Zlatan Ibrahimovic	3
Dusan Vlahovic	3
Alfred Duncan	2
Franck Ribery	2
Theo Hernandez	2
Franck Kessie	2

Head to Head

AC Milan Form

2025-10-19 AC Milan 2–1 ACF Fiorentina W 2025-10-05 Juventus FC 0–0 AC Milan D 2025-09-28 AC Milan 2–1 SSC Napoli W 2025-09-20 Udinese Calcio 0–3 AC Milan W 2025-09-14 AC Milan 1–0 Bologna FC 1909 W 2025-08-29 US Lecce 0–2 AC Milan W

ACF Fiorentina Form

2025-10-19 AC Milan 2–1 ACF Fiorentina L 2025-10-05 ACF Fiorentina 1–2 AS Roma L 2025-09-28 AC Pisa 1909 0–0 ACF Fiorentina D 2025-09-21 ACF Fiorentina 1–2 Como 1907 L 2025-09-13 ACF Fiorentina 1–3 SSC Napoli L 2025-08-31 Torino FC 0–0 ACF Fiorentina D

Predictions

Prediction accuracy

2 / 4

2.65 AC Milan xG

Expected Goals

Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo

0.75 ACF Fiorentina xG

I would bet for: AC Milan to win 74% + Over 2.5 goals 65%

Match Result

✓ Correct

AC Milan74% Draw17% ACF Fiorentina9%

Actual: AC Milan win

Both Teams to Score

✗ Wrong

Yes49% 0% No51%

Avg goals/match: 3.4

Actual: Yes — both scored

Over / Under Goals

✓ O/U 2.5

Line	Over	Under
± 0.5	95%	5%
± 1.5	85%	15%
± 2.5	65%	35%
± 3.5	43%	57%
± 4.5	25%	75%

Double Chance

AC Milan or Draw

90%

Draw or ACF Fiorentina

26%

AC Milan or ACF Fiorentina

83%

Half-Time Result

✗ Wrong

AC Milan56% Draw35% ACF Fiorentina9%

Actual: Draw at HT

Correct Score

✓ In top 12

2 – 0

11.7%

3 – 0

10.1%

1 – 0

8.7%

2 – 1

Actual

3 – 1

7.5%

1 – 1

7.3%

4 – 0

6.6%

4 – 1

0 – 0

4.6%

5 – 0

3.5%

2 – 2

3.2%

3 – 2

2.9%

Asian Handicap — AC Milan

Handicap	AC Milan covers	Push	ACF Fiorentina covers
-2.5	34%	—	66%
-2	34%	22%	44%
-1.5	56%	—	44%
-1	56%	21%	24%
-0.5	76%	—	24%
+0.5	92%	—	8%
+1	92%	5%	2%
+1.5	98%	—	2%
+2	98%	2%	0%
+2.5	100%	—	0%

Clean Sheet

AC Milan keeps clean sheet

48% ✓

ACF Fiorentina keeps clean sheet

8% ✓

Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.