Sunday , 16 August 2026

Southampton FC vs Derby County FC, Championship 2025-26 REGULAR SEASON

Championship · 2025-26
Sat 11 Apr 2026 · 14:00 UTC St. Mary's Stadium 31,206 HT 45' · FT 45'
0–1 38' Carlton Morris
Leo Scienza 62' 1–1

Overview

Recent Form

DateOpponentH/A ScoreResult
11 Apr Derby County FC H 2–1 W
07 Apr Wrexham AFC A 5–1 W
04 Apr Arsenal FC H 2–1 W
21 Mar Oxford United FC H 2–0 W
18 Mar Norwich City FC H 1–0 W
14 Mar Coventry City FC A 2–1 W
DateOpponentH/A ScoreResult
11 Apr Southampton FC A 1–2 L
06 Apr Stoke City FC H 2–0 W
03 Apr Coventry City FC A 2–3 L
21 Mar Birmingham City FC H 1–0 W
16 Mar Portsmouth FC A 1–0 W
10 Mar Millwall FC A 0–1 L

Season Stats

Southampton FC Derby County FC
#17 Position #23
0 Points 0
0 Played 0
0 / 0 / 0 W / D / L 0 / 0 / 0
0 Scored 0
0 Conceded 0
+0 GD +0
PPG
Win %

Key Stats

100% Both Teams to Score
H2H (4 games)
75% Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history
0% Clean Sheets
Derby County FC this season

Southampton FC are 17th (0 pts). Derby County FC are 23rd (0 pts).

Goal Timing (This Season)

Derby County FC
0-15
/
16-30
1/
31-45
/
46-60
/
61-75
/1
76+
/1
■ Scored ■ Conceded

Events

Match Events

  • 0' The stage is set the green flag drops! Another match against Southampton FC and Derby County FC has kicked off!
  • 5' Southampton FC are deployed in a 4-2-3-1 today, looking to exploit space against Derby County FC's 4-2-3-1 shape.
  • 9' Fresh legs for Derby County FC! Oscar Fraulo comes on to replace Bobby Clark.
  • 14' Southampton FC are happy to let the opposition have the ball in their own half. The trap is set.
  • 19' We are waiting for someone to take the initiative. Who will be the first to commit to attack?
  • 24' Caspar Jander has been disciplined this evening — perhaps mindful of those 0 cards already picked up this season.
  • 29' The referee is likely to let players tackle, as he already missed some meaty challenges during opening seconds. He is still to establish what should not be done by the players and what is acceptable on the pitch. It’s going to be a tough game for Leo Scienza suffering a number of foals already.
  • 34' Southampton FC are keeping things exceptionally tight at the back. It will take something special to break them down.
  • 38' Magnificent from Carlton Morris! That is 67 goals in 329 appearances — and it could not have come at a better time.
  • 43' The tempo has dropped considerably in the last few minutes. Tonda Eckert will be considering his options from the bench.
  • 48' Southampton FC seems to be on a short break. The game is mainly concentrated in the center. It’s high time they got back to action. Otherwise, it looks like a goalless game.
  • 53' Dion Sanderson is having his name booked by the referee on 53.
  • 55' That looks like a foul for a card for Oscar Fraulo.
  • 60' It looks surprising Derby County FC does not make any changes. Dion Sanderson has some obvious troubles when approaching to the goal.
  • 62' GOAL! Leo Scienza fires home to make it 1-1!
  • 64' The Southampton FC manager makes a substitution. Tom Fellows departs to be replaced by Kuryu Matsuki.
  • 66' A change in the Derby County FC ranks — Jaydon Banel exits the field as Owen Eames enters on 66.
  • 67' The supporters are chanting for Craig Forsyth. He replaces Max Johnston on 67 minute.
  • 69' Goal! Taylor Harwood-Bellis scores his 7 goal in 436 matches.
  • 74' The home supporters are growing impatient. Southampton FC must find a spark to ignite this game.
  • 75' The Southampton FC manager makes a substitution. Leo Scienza departs to be replaced by Samuel Edozie.
  • 80' We miss some good tackles and strikes. Is there anyone on the field to put the game back to action?
  • 84' Lars-Jorgen Salvesen is ready to make an impact after coming on for Lewis Travis at the 84 minute mark.
  • 87' Southampton FC ring the changes. James Bree has done his job and it is now time for Nathan Wood-Gordon to step up.
  • 90' Cyle Larin catches the referee's attention in entirely the wrong way. card on 90.
  • The referee brings this contest to a close. Southampton FC take all three points.

Lineups

H2H

Predictions

Prediction accuracy
1 / 4
0.91 Southampton FC xG
Expected Goals
Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo
0.57 Derby County FC xG
I would bet for: Under 2.5 goals 81% + Under — clean sheet likely 72%

Match Result

✓ Correct
Southampton FC46% Draw34% Derby County FC20%
Actual: Southampton FC win

Both Teams to Score

✗ Wrong
Yes28% 0% No72%
Avg goals/match: 1.48
Actual: Yes — both scored

Over / Under Goals

✗ O/U 2.5
Line Over Under
± 0.5 75%
25%
± 1.5 44%
56%
± 2.5 19%
81%
± 3.5 7%
93%
± 4.5 2%
98%

Double Chance

Southampton FC or Draw
81%
Draw or Derby County FC
54%
Southampton FC or Derby County FC
66%

Half-Time Result

✗ Wrong
Southampton FC25% Draw63% Derby County FC12%
Actual: Derby County FC win at HT

Correct Score

✓ In top 12
0 – 0
25.4%
1 – 0
19.2%
1 – 1
12.8%
0 – 1
11.3%
2 – 0
8.8%
2 – 1
Actual
1 – 2
3.3%
0 – 2
3.3%
3 – 0
2.6%
3 – 1
1.8%
2 – 2
1.7%
1 – 3
0.7%

Asian Handicap — Southampton FC

Handicap Southampton FC covers Push Derby County FC covers
-2.5 4% 96%
-2 4% 11% 85%
-1.5 15% 85%
-1 15% 25% 60%
-0.5 40% 60%
+0.5 80% 20%
+1 80% 15% 5%
+1.5 95% 5%
+2 95% 4% 1%
+2.5 99% 1%

Clean Sheet

Southampton FC keeps clean sheet
57%
Derby County FC keeps clean sheet
41%

Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.