Tuesday , 1 September 2026

Sao Paulo FC vs Gremio FBPA, Serie A 2024 REGULAR SEASON

Wed 17 Jul 2024 · 23:00 UTC Morumbi 53,168 HT 45' · FT 45'
Lucas Moura 10' 1–0

Overview

Match Preview

Sao Paulo FC vs Gremio FBPASerie A at Morumbi.

Recent Form

DateOpponentH/A ScoreResult
17 Jul Gremio FBPA H 1–0 W
12 Jul CA Mineiro A 1–2 L
06 Jul RB Bragantino H 2–0 W
04 Jul CA Paranaense A 2–1 W
30 Jun EC Bahia H 3–1 W
27 Jun Criciúma EC H 2–1 W
DateOpponentH/A ScoreResult
17 Jul Sao Paulo FC A 0–1 L
10 Jul Cruzeiro EC H 0–2 L
07 Jul EC Juventude A 0–3 L
04 Jul SE Palmeiras H 2–2 D
30 Jun Fluminense FC H 1–0 W
26 Jun AC Goianiense A 1–1 D

Season Stats

Sao Paulo FC Gremio FBPA
#11 Position #15
30 Points 28
24 Played 24
8 / 6 / 10 W / D / L 7 / 7 / 10
29 Scored 27
28 Conceded 32
+1 GD -5
1.25 PPG 1.17
33% Win % 29%

Key Stats

50% Both Teams to Score
H2H (18 games)
56% Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history
21% Clean Sheets
Sao Paulo FC this season
29% Clean Sheets
Gremio FBPA this season

Sao Paulo FC are 11th (30 pts). Gremio FBPA are 15th (28 pts).

Goal Timing (This Season)

Sao Paulo FC
0-15
4/
16-30
3/4
31-45
4/2
46-60
/8
61-75
3/2
76+
4/6
■ Scored ■ Conceded
Gremio FBPA
0-15
/1
16-30
2/2
31-45
2/4
46-60
4/2
61-75
2/6
76+
3/1
■ Scored ■ Conceded

Top Scorers (This Season)

Sao Paulo FC
Luciano 7 G 1 A
Jonathan Calleri 7 G 1 A
Ferreira 4 G
Artur Guimaraes 3 G 1 A
Gremio FBPA
Carlos Vinicius 10 G 1 A

Events

Match Events

  • 0' The match kicks off with home fans waiting with anticipation for Sao Paulo FC to score. At the same time, Grêmio FBPA does not seem to pull back! Let’s get it on!
  • 5' Neither side is committing men forward. This has all the hallmarks of a tense, tactical contest.
  • 10' What a strike from Lucas Moura! The score is 1-0.
  • 15' The 38-year-old Agustin Marchesin has been sensational this season — 0 goals and 0 assists is a remarkable return.
  • 20' Although teams showed high tempo form the start, they seem to slow down a bit. Both sides really need to catch a fire. Otherwise, we have another goalless match.
  • 23' It’s gonna be a card for Joao Pedro Pepe.
  • 28' Grêmio FBPA have won 385 goals from 328 games. They will be desperate to add to that tally today.
  • 31' It’s gonna be a card for Mathias Villasanti.
  • 36' A tactical chess match is unfolding here. The question is which manager blinks first.
  • 38' The referee has no hesitation. Igor Vinicius is booked for Sao Paulo FC — card on 38.
  • 41' The referee calls foul for Lucas Moura. He receives a card.
  • 46' Felipe Carballo is replacing Joao Pedro Pepe for the Gremio FBPA side.
  • 47' A change in the Gremio FBPA ranks — Everton exits the field as Nathan enters on 47.
  • 52' Sao Paulo FC is showing some good football. However, Sao Paulo FC are ready to play back every minute. It might result in some problems for the home side. The game will hardly remain goalless.
  • 55' The supporters are chanting for Wellington Rato. He replaces Alisson on 55 minute.
  • 60' The clock is ticking and both teams know a goal could change everything at this point.
  • 64' It is a substitution in Sao Paulo FC team. Lucas Moura is replaced by Rodrigo Nestor on 64 minute.
  • 69' Andre Silva is ready to make an impact after coming on for Jonathan Calleri at the 69 minute mark.
  • 74' A tactical swap from Gremio FBPANathan Ribeiro on, Cristian Pavon off on 74 minutes.
  • 75' Gustavo Gomes gets the nod from Gremio FBPA. He replaces Dodi and will look to change the dynamic.
  • 78' The referee has no hesitation. Rafael Monteiro is booked for Sao Paulo FC — card on 78.
  • 80' Controversy at the stadium! Nathan argues furiously but the card stands.
  • 85' We are waiting for someone to take the initiative. Who will be the first to commit to attack?
  • 89' Ronald is ready to make an impact after coming on for Nata at the 89 minute mark.
  • 90' Sao Paulo FC player sees a card in front of him.
  • Hope, you loved the show. Another epic battle is over with the score 1-0.

Lineups

H2H

Predictions

Prediction accuracy
3 / 4
1.54 Sao Paulo FC xG
Expected Goals
Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo
0.81 Gremio FBPA xG
I would bet for: Under 2.5 goals 59% + Sao Paulo FC to win 56%

Match Result

✓ Correct
Sao Paulo FC56% Draw26% Gremio FBPA18%
Actual: Sao Paulo FC win

Both Teams to Score

✓ Correct
Yes44% 0% No56%
Avg goals/match: 2.35
Actual: No — clean sheet

Over / Under Goals

✓ O/U 2.5
Line Over Under
± 0.5 88%
12%
± 1.5 68%
32%
± 2.5 41%
59%
± 3.5 22%
78%
± 4.5 10%
90%

Double Chance

Sao Paulo FC or Draw
82%
Draw or Gremio FBPA
44%
Sao Paulo FC or Gremio FBPA
74%

Half-Time Result

✗ Wrong
Sao Paulo FC36% Draw49% Gremio FBPA15%
Actual: Sao Paulo FC win at HT

Correct Score

✓ In top 12
1 – 0
Actual
1 – 1
12.7%
0 – 0
11.6%
2 – 0
11%
2 – 1
8.9%
0 – 1
6.6%
3 – 0
5.5%
3 – 1
4.6%
1 – 2
4.6%
2 – 2
3.7%
0 – 2
3%
4 – 0
2.2%

Asian Handicap — Sao Paulo FC

Handicap Sao Paulo FC covers Push Gremio FBPA covers
-2.5 12% 88%
-2 12% 17% 72%
-1.5 28% 72%
-1 28% 25% 47%
-0.5 53% 47%
+0.5 82% 18%
+1 82% 12% 6%
+1.5 94% 6%
+2 94% 4% 1%
+2.5 99% 1%

Clean Sheet

Sao Paulo FC keeps clean sheet
45%
Gremio FBPA keeps clean sheet
22%

Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.