Melbourne Victory FC vs Wellington Phoenix FC, A League 2025-26 REGULAR SEASON

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A League · 2025-26

Melbourne Victory FC

5 – 1

Full Time

Wellington Phoenix FC

Mon 29 Dec 2025 · 08:00 UTC HT 45' · FT 45'

Overview

Match Preview

Melbourne Victory FC vs Wellington Phoenix FC — A League .

Melbourne Victory FC 26 games · 40 pts (2026/27)
Wellington Phoenix FC 26 games · 33 pts (2026/27)

Match Details

Referee Shaun Evans
Referee Hugh Fenton-White (Australia)

Standings

#	Team	P	Pts
1	Newcastle United Jets FC	26	48
2	Adelaide United FC	26	43
3	Auckland FC	26	42
4	Melbourne Victory FC	26	40
5	Sydney FC	26	39
6	Melbourne City FC	26	38
7	Macarthur FC	26	34
8	Wellington Phoenix FC	26	33
9	Central Coast Mariners FC	26	32
10	Perth Glory FC	26	31
11	Brisbane Roar FC	26	26
12	Western Sydney Wanderers FC	26	21

Head-to-Head

Melbourne Victory FC 24 games · Avg 2.7 goals Wellington Phoenix FC

Last 5 meetings

2025-12-29 Melbourne Victory FC 5–1 Wellington Phoenix FC 2025-04-12 Wellington Phoenix FC 2–3 Melbourne Victory FC 2025-02-14 Melbourne Victory FC 1–0 Wellington Phoenix FC 2024-11-24 Wellington Phoenix FC 1–0 Melbourne Victory FC 2024-05-18 Wellington Phoenix FC 1–2 Melbourne Victory FC

Recent Form

Melbourne Victory FC

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
29 Dec	Wellington Phoenix FC	H	5–1	W
20 Dec	Melbourne City FC	A	1–0	W
13 Dec	Adelaide United FC	H	2–1	W
05 Dec	Macarthur FC	A	0–0	D
28 Nov	Brisbane Roar FC	A	0–1	L
22 Nov	Sydney FC	A	0–3	L

Wellington Phoenix FC

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
29 Dec	Melbourne Victory FC	A	1–5	L
21 Dec	Central Coast Mariners FC	H	3–1	W
14 Dec	Newcastle United Jets FC	H	1–3	L
06 Dec	Auckland FC	A	1–3	L
29 Nov	Adelaide United FC	H	2–1	W
22 Nov	Macarthur FC	H	0–1	L

Season Stats

Melbourne Victory FC		Wellington Phoenix FC
#4	Position	#8
40	Points	33
26	Played	26
11 / 7 / 8	W / D / L	9 / 6 / 11
44	Scored	36
33	Conceded	48
+11	GD	-12
1.54	PPG	1.27
42%	Win %	35%

Key Stats

63% Both Teams to Score
H2H (24 games)

46% Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history

Melbourne Victory FC are 4th (40 pts). Wellington Phoenix FC are 8th (33 pts).

Events

Match Events

0' The wait is over. Melbourne Victory FC get us underway at .
Both sets of fans can go home satisfied — a 5-1 draw is a fair result on the day.

Lineups

Melbourne Victory FC Lineups

Wellington Phoenix FC Lineups

H2H

H2H Top Scorers

Player	Goals
Ola Toivonen	5
Oskar Zawada	4
Roy Krishna	4
Nicholas D'Agostino	3
Ulises Davila	3
Walter Sandoval	3
Bruno Fornaroli	3
Nikolaos Vergos	2

Head to Head

Melbourne Victory FC Form

2025-12-29 Melbourne Victory FC 5–1 Wellington Phoenix FC W 2025-12-20 Melbourne City FC 0–1 Melbourne Victory FC W 2025-12-13 Melbourne Victory FC 2–1 Adelaide United FC W 2025-12-05 Macarthur FC 0–0 Melbourne Victory FC D 2025-11-28 Brisbane Roar FC 1–0 Melbourne Victory FC L 2025-11-22 Sydney FC 3–0 Melbourne Victory FC L

Wellington Phoenix FC Form

2025-12-29 Melbourne Victory FC 5–1 Wellington Phoenix FC L 2025-12-21 Wellington Phoenix FC 3–1 Central Coast Mariners FC W 2025-12-14 Wellington Phoenix FC 1–3 Newcastle United Jets FC L 2025-12-06 Auckland FC 3–1 Wellington Phoenix FC L 2025-11-29 Wellington Phoenix FC 2–1 Adelaide United FC W 2025-11-22 Wellington Phoenix FC 0–1 Macarthur FC L

Predictions

Prediction accuracy

4 / 4

2.97 Melbourne Victory FC xG

Expected Goals

Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo

1.11 Wellington Phoenix FC xG

I would bet for: Over 2.5 goals 76% + Melbourne Victory FC to win 71%

Match Result

✓ Correct

Melbourne Victory FC71% Draw17% Wellington Phoenix FC12%

Actual: Melbourne Victory FC win

Both Teams to Score

✓ Correct

Yes63% 0% No37%

Avg goals/match: 4.08

Actual: Yes — both scored

Over / Under Goals

✓ O/U 2.5

Line	Over	Under
± 0.5	97%	3%
± 1.5	91%	9%
± 2.5	76%	24%
± 3.5	57%	43%
± 4.5	38%	62%

Double Chance

Melbourne Victory FC or Draw

88%

Draw or Wellington Phoenix FC

29%

Melbourne Victory FC or Wellington Phoenix FC

83%

Half-Time Result

✓ Correct

Melbourne Victory FC56% Draw33% Wellington Phoenix FC11%

Actual: Melbourne Victory FC win at HT

Correct Score

✓ In top 12

2 – 1

8.2%

3 – 1

7.9%

2 – 0

7.7%

3 – 0

7.3%

1 – 1

6.3%

4 – 1

5.9%

4 – 0

5.4%

1 – 0

2 – 2

4.5%

3 – 2

4.4%

5 – 1

Actual

4 – 2

3.3%

Asian Handicap — Melbourne Victory FC

Handicap	Melbourne Victory FC covers	Push	Wellington Phoenix FC covers
-2.5	35%	—	65%
-2	35%	20%	46%
-1.5	54%	—	46%
-1	54%	19%	27%
-0.5	73%	—	27%
+0.5	89%	—	11%
+1	89%	7%	4%
+1.5	96%	—	4%
+2	96%	3%	1%
+2.5	99%	—	1%

Clean Sheet

Melbourne Victory FC keeps clean sheet

34% ✓

Wellington Phoenix FC keeps clean sheet

6% ✓

Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.