VfL Wolfsburg vs 1. FSV Mainz 05, Bundesliga 2024-25 REGULAR SEASON
Overview
Match Preview
VfL Wolfsburg vs 1. FSV Mainz 05 — Bundesliga at Volkswagen Arena.
- VfL Wolfsburg 34 games · 29 pts (2025/26)
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 34 games · 40 pts (2025/26)
Match Details
- Referee Timo Gerach
- Assistant 1 Florian Heft
- Assistant 2 Marcel Unger
15 games this season
🟨 1.1/game
⚽ 5.7 goals/game
Standings
| # | Team | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Bayern München | 34 | 89 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 34 | 73 |
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 65 |
| 4 | VfB Stuttgart | 34 | 62 |
| 5 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 34 | 61 |
| 6 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 34 | 59 |
| 7 | SC Freiburg | 34 | 47 |
| 8 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 34 | 44 |
| 9 | FC Augsburg | 34 | 43 |
| 10 | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 34 | 40 |
| 11 | 1. FC Union Berlin | 34 | 39 |
| 12 | Borussia Monchengladbach | 34 | 38 |
| 13 | Hamburger SV | 34 | 38 |
| 14 | 1. FC Koln | 34 | 32 |
| 15 | SV Werder Bremen | 34 | 32 |
| 16 | VfL Wolfsburg | 34 | 29 |
| 17 | 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | 34 | 26 |
| 18 | FC St. Pauli 1910 | 34 | 26 |
Head-to-Head
Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | H/A | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Dec | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | H | 4–3 | W |
| 04 Dec | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | H | 3–0 | W |
| 30 Nov | RB Leipzig | A | 5–1 | W |
| 23 Nov | 1. FC Union Berlin | H | 1–0 | W |
| 10 Nov | 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | A | 3–1 | W |
| 02 Nov | FC Augsburg | H | 1–1 | D |
| Date | Opponent | H/A | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Dec | VfL Wolfsburg | A | 3–4 | L |
| 01 Dec | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | H | 2–0 | W |
| 24 Nov | Holstein Kiel | A | 3–0 | W |
| 09 Nov | Borussia Dortmund | H | 3–1 | W |
| 03 Nov | SC Freiburg | A | 0–0 | D |
| 30 Oct | FC Bayern München | H | 0–4 | L |
Season Stats
| VfL Wolfsburg | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | |
|---|---|---|
| #16 | Position | #10 |
| 29 | Points | 40 |
| 34 | Played | 34 |
| 7 / 8 / 19 | W / D / L | 10 / 10 / 14 |
| 45 | Scored | 44 |
| 69 | Conceded | 53 |
| -24 | GD | -9 |
| 0.85 | PPG | 1.18 |
| 21% | Win % | 29% |
Key Stats
48%
Both Teams to Score
H2H (25 games)
H2H (25 games)
64%
Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history
H2H history
6%
Clean Sheets
VfL Wolfsburg this season
VfL Wolfsburg this season
12%
Clean Sheets
1. FSV Mainz 05 this season
1. FSV Mainz 05 this season
VfL Wolfsburg are 16th (29 pts). 1. FSV Mainz 05 are 10th (40 pts).
Goal Timing (This Season)
VfL Wolfsburg
0-15
1/–
16-30
1/2
31-45
3/2
46-60
2/3
61-75
–/3
76+
2/2
■ Scored ■ Conceded
1. FSV Mainz 05
0-15
4/1
16-30
1/1
31-45
3/1
46-60
1/2
61-75
–/1
76+
2/5
■ Scored ■ Conceded
Events
Match Events
- 0' In just a few seconds Volkswagen Arena will turn into a battlefield for VfL Wolfsburg and 1. FSV Mainz 05.
- 5' 1. FSV Mainz 05 ring the changes. Danny da Costa has done his job and it is now time for Andreas Hanche-Olsen to step up.
- 10' VfL Wolfsburg are deployed in a 4-3-3 today, looking to exploit space against 1. FSV Mainz 05's 3-4-2-1 shape.
- 11' A stunning finish from Paul Nebel — that came from absolutely nowhere!
- 16' Both keepers have barely been tested. VfL Wolfsburg and 1. FSV Mainz 05 are cancelling each other out in the centre of the park.
- 20' Mohammed Amoura doubles the advantage! 1-1 and this game is slipping away from the opposition.
- 21' It’s a booking for VfL Wolfsburg player. Ridle Baku gets a card.
- 22' The referee shows VfL Wolfsburg player a card on 22.
- 27' It’s a booking for 1. FSV Mainz 05 player. Bo Henriksen gets a card.
- 32' Spectators do not have much to choose from both teams. The sides had several scoring chances but they still need a bit more than just a sight of a goal.
- 37' Kaishu Sano has been relatively quiet despite scoring 2 goals in his last 447 appearances.
- 39' The deadlock is broken! Jonathan Burkardt gets on the scoresheet on 39 minutes.
- 43' That looks like a foul for a card for Nadiem Amiri.
- 45' Poor challenge from Jae-sung Lee. The referee spots it immediately and shows the card.
- 46' The VfL Wolfsburg manager makes a substitution. Patrick Wimmer departs to be replaced by Jonas Wind.
- 51' The tempo has dropped considerably in the last few minutes. Bo Henriksen will be considering his options from the bench.
- 56' The referee has no hesitation. Dominik Kohr is booked for 1. FSV Mainz 05 — card on 56.
- 57' Andreas Hanche-Olsen is having a superb {COMPETITION} campaign — that is 0 goals this season for the .
- 62' Bence Dardai, a Hungary , has 0 bookings this season and will need to keep his discipline tonight.
- 66' Paul Nebel doubles the advantage! 1-4 and this game is slipping away from the opposition.
- 68' Controversy at the stadium! Tiago Tomas argues furiously but the card stands.
- 69' The whistle greets Mohammed Amoura as he departs to be replaced by Lukas Nmecha.
- 74' 1. FSV Mainz 05 looks like a favorite considering 1 games won in last 2 matches with its main striker scoring 0 goals.
- 79' Dominik Kohr has certainly something to prove this evening. He made 46 appearances with only 1 goals this season.
- 81' Kevin Behrens gets the nod from VfL Wolfsburg. He replaces Tiago Tomas and will look to change the dynamic.
- 84' The Denmark Jonas Wind breaks the deadlock on 84 minutes. 2-4!
- 85' Another change for 1. FSV Mainz 05 made on 85 minute. Anthony Caci leaves to be changed by Silvan Widmer.
- 89' Time for substitution for 1. FSV Mainz 05. Andreas Hanche-Olsen is replaced by Maxim Leitsch.
- 90' A moment of madness from Maxim Leitsch on 90 minutes earns him a card. 1. FSV Mainz 05 will be frustrated.
- The final whistle goes. A composed, disciplined performance from VfL Wolfsburg to claim maximum points.
Lineups
VfL Wolfsburg Lineups
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1
- 27
- 20
- 21
- 18
-
39
Patrick Wimmer ↓ Jonas Wind 46'
-
11
Tiago Tomas ↓ Kevin Behrens 81'
-
2
Kilian Fischer ↓ Jakub Kaminski 81'
-
9
Mohammed Amoura ↓ Lukas Nmecha 69'
-
24
Bence Dardai ↓ Yannick Gerhardt 69'
- 4
Bench
-
10
Lukas Nmecha ↑ 69'
-
31
Yannick Gerhardt ↑ 69'
- 29
- 8
-
17
Kevin Behrens ↑ 81'
- 32
-
23
Jonas Wind ↑ 46'
- 5
-
16
Jakub Kaminski ↑ 81'
Coach
Ralph Hasenhuttl
1. FSV Mainz 05 Lineups
3-4-2-1Starting XI
-
19
Anthony Caci ↓ Silvan Widmer 85'
- 31
- 2
- 27
- 16
- 29
- 18
- 21
-
8
Paul Nebel ↓ Hyun-seok Hong 85'
- 6
- 7
Bench
- 5
- 4
-
30
Silvan Widmer ↑ 85'
-
25
Andreas Hanche-Olsen ↑ 5'
- 11
- 1
- 3
-
14
Hyun-seok Hong ↑ 85'
- 22
Coach
Bo Henriksen
H2H
H2H Top Scorers
| Player | Goals |
|---|---|
| Jonas Wind | 7 |
| Maximilian Arnold | 3 |
| Jonathan Burkardt | 3 |
| Max Kruse | 3 |
| Sebastiaan Bornauw | 2 |
| Stefan Bell | 2 |
| Wout Weghorst | 2 |
| Robin Quaison | 2 |
Head to Head
VfL Wolfsburg Form
1. FSV Mainz 05 Form
Predictions
Prediction accuracy
3 / 4
1.91
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Expected Goals
Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo
1.61
1. FSV Mainz 05 xG
I would bet for:
Both teams to score 68% + Over 2.5 goals 67%
Match Result
✓ CorrectActual: VfL Wolfsburg win
Both Teams to Score
✓ Correct
Avg goals/match: 3.52
Actual: Yes — both scored
Over / Under Goals
✓ O/U 2.5| Line | Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ± 0.5 | 96% |
|
4% |
| ± 1.5 | 86% |
|
14% |
| ± 2.5 | 67% |
|
33% |
| ± 3.5 | 46% |
|
54% |
| ± 4.5 | 28% |
|
72% |
Double Chance
VfL Wolfsburg or Draw
72%
Draw or 1. FSV Mainz 05
51%
VfL Wolfsburg or 1. FSV Mainz 05
77%
Half-Time Result
✗ WrongActual: 1. FSV Mainz 05 win at HT
Correct Score
✗ 4–3 not predicted4 – 3Actual
1 – 1
10%
2 – 1
8.4%
1 – 2
7.1%
2 – 2
6.7%
2 – 0
5.4%
3 – 1
5.3%
1 – 0
5.1%
0 – 0
4.4%
3 – 2
4.3%
0 – 1
4.2%
0 – 2
3.9%
1 – 3
3.8%
Asian Handicap — VfL Wolfsburg
| Handicap | VfL Wolfsburg covers | Push | 1. FSV Mainz 05 covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 11% | — | 89% |
| -2 | 11% | 13% | 75% |
| -1.5 | 25% | — | 75% |
| -1 | 25% | 19% | 56% |
| -0.5 | 44% | — | 56% |
| +0.5 | 68% | — | 32% |
| +1 | 68% | 16% | 16% |
| +1.5 | 84% | — | 16% |
| +2 | 84% | 10% | 6% |
| +2.5 | 94% | — | 6% |
Clean Sheet
VfL Wolfsburg keeps clean sheet
21%
✓
1. FSV Mainz 05 keeps clean sheet
16%
✓
Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.