VfL Wolfsburg vs 1. FSV Mainz 05, Bundesliga 2023-24 REGULAR SEASON
Overview
Match Preview
VfL Wolfsburg vs 1. FSV Mainz 05 — Bundesliga at Volkswagen Arena.
- VfL Wolfsburg 34 games · 29 pts (2025/26)
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 34 games · 40 pts (2025/26)
Match Details
- Referee Frank Willenborg
- Assistant 1 Thorben Siewer
- Assistant 2 Christian Leicher
14 games this season
🟨 1.1/game
⚽ 7.6 goals/game
🟥 1 total
Standings
| # | Team | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Bayern München | 34 | 89 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 34 | 73 |
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 65 |
| 4 | VfB Stuttgart | 34 | 62 |
| 5 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 34 | 61 |
| 6 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 34 | 59 |
| 7 | SC Freiburg | 34 | 47 |
| 8 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 34 | 44 |
| 9 | FC Augsburg | 34 | 43 |
| 10 | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 34 | 40 |
| 11 | 1. FC Union Berlin | 34 | 39 |
| 12 | Borussia Monchengladbach | 34 | 38 |
| 13 | Hamburger SV | 34 | 38 |
| 14 | 1. FC Koln | 34 | 32 |
| 15 | SV Werder Bremen | 34 | 32 |
| 16 | VfL Wolfsburg | 34 | 29 |
| 17 | 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | 34 | 26 |
| 18 | FC St. Pauli 1910 | 34 | 26 |
Head-to-Head
Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | H/A | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 May | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | H | 1–3 | L |
| 12 May | FC Bayern München | A | 0–2 | L |
| 04 May | SV Darmstadt 98 | H | 3–0 | W |
| 27 Apr | SC Freiburg | A | 2–1 | W |
| 20 Apr | VfL Bochum 1848 | H | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Apr | RB Leipzig | A | 0–3 | L |
| Date | Opponent | H/A | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 May | VfL Wolfsburg | A | 3–1 | W |
| 11 May | Borussia Dortmund | H | 3–0 | W |
| 05 May | 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | A | 1–1 | D |
| 28 Apr | 1. FC Koln | H | 1–1 | D |
| 21 Apr | SC Freiburg | A | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Apr | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | H | 4–1 | W |
Season Stats
| VfL Wolfsburg | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | |
|---|---|---|
| #16 | Position | #10 |
| 29 | Points | 40 |
| 34 | Played | 34 |
| 7 / 8 / 19 | W / D / L | 10 / 10 / 14 |
| 45 | Scored | 44 |
| 69 | Conceded | 53 |
| -24 | GD | -9 |
| 0.85 | PPG | 1.18 |
| 21% | Win % | 29% |
Key Stats
48%
Both Teams to Score
H2H (25 games)
H2H (25 games)
64%
Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history
H2H history
6%
Clean Sheets
VfL Wolfsburg this season
VfL Wolfsburg this season
12%
Clean Sheets
1. FSV Mainz 05 this season
1. FSV Mainz 05 this season
VfL Wolfsburg are 16th (29 pts). 1. FSV Mainz 05 are 10th (40 pts).
Goal Timing (This Season)
VfL Wolfsburg
0-15
1/–
16-30
1/2
31-45
3/2
46-60
2/3
61-75
–/3
76+
2/2
■ Scored ■ Conceded
1. FSV Mainz 05
0-15
4/1
16-30
1/1
31-45
3/1
46-60
1/2
61-75
–/1
76+
2/5
■ Scored ■ Conceded
Events
Match Events
- 0' That's the starting whistle at Volkswagen Arena. Ninety minutes of football awaits between VfL Wolfsburg and 1. FSV Mainz 05.
- 5' Brajan Gruda is putting in a real shift tonight. He has covered more ground than anyone else for 1. FSV Mainz 05 so far.
- 10' The Array continues to deliver drama. Both VfL Wolfsburg and 1. FSV Mainz 05 are desperate not to drop points on matchday .
- 12' It’s gonna be a card for Jae-sung Lee.
- 17' The teams are not in a rush to score plenty of goals. It might look strange considering 1. FSV Mainz 05 that had 436 games and scored 398 goals.
- 18' The USA Kevin Paredes breaks the deadlock on 18 minutes. 1-0!
- 23' Supporters expect more eagerness from Ridle Baku, as he is very good at scoring at Volkswagen Arena with 9 goals in the last 8 games.
- 24' Brajan Gruda makes no mistake. The score reads 1-1 and 1. FSV Mainz 05 are in front.
- 29' VfL Wolfsburg are deployed in a 4-2-3-1 today, looking to exploit space against 1. FSV Mainz 05's 3-4-2-1 shape.
- 34' Poor challenge from Michael Silberbauer. The referee spots it immediately and shows the card.
- 39' Neither side is committing men forward. This has all the hallmarks of a tense, tactical contest.
- 44' A tactical chess match is unfolding here. The question is which manager blinks first.
- 46' It is a substitution in VfL Wolfsburg team. Kevin Paredes is replaced by Patrick Wimmer on 46 minute.
- 51' Although teams showed high tempo form the start, they seem to slow down a bit. Both sides really need to catch a fire. Otherwise, we have another goalless match.
- 52' The referee does not hesitate — a card for Patrick Wimmer on 52 minutes.
- 54' 1. FSV Mainz 05 player sees a card in front of him.
- 59' Robin Zentner has been one of the livelier players on the pitch with 0 goals to his name this season.
- 64' It looks like no one’s ball. VfL Wolfsburg is used to counterattacking playing. None of the sides are ready to take the lead.
- 69' Ludovic Ajorque needs to be pretty careful with his discipline considering 0 Red cards this season.
- 71' A moment of madness from Lovro Majer on 71 minutes earns him a card. VfL Wolfsburg will be frustrated.
- 72' 1. FSV Mainz 05 is taking the lead after the goal scored by Sepp van den Berg on 72.
- 73' The 1. FSV Mainz 05 bench stirs into life. Jae-sung Lee is withdrawn and Ludovic Ajorque gets his opportunity.
- 76' Time for substitution for VfL Wolfsburg. Ridle Baku is replaced by Vaclav Cerny.
- 80' VfL Wolfsburg make a change. Patrick Wimmer trudges off to be replaced by Bennit Broger on 80 minutes.
- 85' Against the run of play, Jonathan Burkardt has scored! This game has turned on its head.
- 86' The 1. FSV Mainz 05 bench stirs into life. Brajan Gruda is withdrawn and Tom Krauss gets his opportunity.
- 89' Dominik Kohr has been a danger all night but risks an early exit having now seen a card on 89.
- 90' It is a substitution in 1. FSV Mainz 05 team. Jonathan Burkardt is replaced by Josuha Guilavogui on 90 minute.
- Full Time. 1. FSV Mainz 05 beats VfL Wolfsburg
Lineups
VfL Wolfsburg Lineups
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 4
- 1
- 27
-
20
Ridle Baku ↓ Vaclav Cerny 76'
- 19
- 3
-
23
Jonas Wind ↓ Kevin Behrens 76'
- 5
- 16
-
40
Kevin Paredes ↓ Patrick Wimmer 46'
- 2
Bench
-
7
Vaclav Cerny ↑ 76'
- 12
-
17
Kevin Behrens ↑ 76'
-
39
Patrick Wimmer ↑ 46'
- 30
- 25
- 49
- 38
Coach
Ralph Hasenhuttl
1. FSV Mainz 05 Lineups
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 3
- 31
- 2
- 27
- 8
- 29
-
18
Nadiem Amiri ↓ Marco Richter 90'
-
30
Silvan Widmer ↓ Anthony Caci 73'
- 25
-
43
Brajan Gruda ↓ Tom Krauss 86'
-
7
Jae-sung Lee ↓ Ludovic Ajorque 73'
Bench
-
17
Ludovic Ajorque ↑ 73'
-
19
Anthony Caci ↑ 73'
-
10
Marco Richter ↑ 90'
-
23
Josuha Guilavogui ↑ 90'
- 21
- 20
- 33
-
14
Tom Krauss ↑ 86'
- 44
Coach
Bo Henriksen
H2H
H2H Top Scorers
| Player | Goals |
|---|---|
| Jonas Wind | 7 |
| Maximilian Arnold | 3 |
| Jonathan Burkardt | 3 |
| Max Kruse | 3 |
| Robin Quaison | 2 |
| Renato Steffen | 2 |
| Paul Nebel | 2 |
| Maximilian Philipp | 2 |
Head to Head
VfL Wolfsburg Form
1. FSV Mainz 05 Form
Predictions
Prediction accuracy
3 / 4
1.68
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Expected Goals
Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo
1.45
1. FSV Mainz 05 xG
I would bet for:
VfL Wolfsburg or 1. FSV Mainz 05 73% + Both teams to score 62%
Match Result
✗ WrongActual: 1. FSV Mainz 05 win
Both Teams to Score
✓ Correct
Avg goals/match: 3.13
Actual: Yes — both scored
Over / Under Goals
✓ O/U 2.5| Line | Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ± 0.5 | 94% |
|
6% |
| ± 1.5 | 82% |
|
18% |
| ± 2.5 | 60% |
|
40% |
| ± 3.5 | 38% |
|
62% |
| ± 4.5 | 21% |
|
79% |
Double Chance
VfL Wolfsburg or Draw
68%
Draw or 1. FSV Mainz 05
59%
VfL Wolfsburg or 1. FSV Mainz 05
73%
Half-Time Result
✓ CorrectActual: Draw at HT
Correct Score
✓ In top 12
1 – 1
11.6%
2 – 1
8.6%
1 – 2
7.4%
1 – 0
6.6%
2 – 2
6.2%
2 – 0
6.1%
0 – 0
6%
0 – 1
5.6%
3 – 1
4.8%
0 – 2
4.6%
1 – 3
Actual
3 – 2
3.5%
Asian Handicap — VfL Wolfsburg
| Handicap | VfL Wolfsburg covers | Push | 1. FSV Mainz 05 covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 9% | — | 91% |
| -2 | 9% | 13% | 78% |
| -1.5 | 22% | — | 78% |
| -1 | 22% | 20% | 58% |
| -0.5 | 42% | — | 58% |
| +0.5 | 68% | — | 32% |
| +1 | 68% | 17% | 15% |
| +1.5 | 85% | — | 15% |
| +2 | 85% | 10% | 6% |
| +2.5 | 94% | — | 6% |
Clean Sheet
VfL Wolfsburg keeps clean sheet
24%
✓
1. FSV Mainz 05 keeps clean sheet
20%
✓
Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.