Sao Paulo FC vs EC Bahia, Serie A 2025 REGULAR SEASON
Overview
Match Preview
Sao Paulo FC vs EC Bahia — Serie A at Morumbi.
- Sao Paulo FC 22 games · 27 pts (2026/26)
- EC Bahia 22 games · 33 pts (2026/26)
Standings
| # | Team | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SE Palmeiras | 23 | 48 |
| 2 | CR Flamengo | 21 | 42 |
| 3 | CA Paranaense | 23 | 41 |
| 4 | Fluminense FC | 23 | 38 |
| 5 | EC Bahia | 22 | 33 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro EC | 22 | 33 |
| 7 | RB Bragantino | 22 | 32 |
| 8 | SC Corinthians Paulista | 22 | 32 |
| 9 | Coritiba FBC | 23 | 31 |
| 10 | Botafogo FR | 21 | 30 |
| 11 | CA Mineiro | 21 | 29 |
| 12 | Sao Paulo FC | 22 | 27 |
| 13 | EC Vitoria | 22 | 26 |
| 14 | Gremio FBPA | 21 | 25 |
| 15 | SC Internacional | 22 | 23 |
| 16 | Mirassol FC | 21 | 23 |
| 17 | Santos FC | 21 | 22 |
| 18 | CR Vasco da Gama | 21 | 22 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 22 | 22 |
| 20 | Chapecoense AF | 21 | 10 |
Head-to-Head
Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | H/A | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Oct | EC Bahia | H | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Oct | Mirassol FC | A | 0–3 | L |
| 16 Oct | Gremio FBPA | A | 0–2 | L |
| 05 Oct | SE Palmeiras | H | 2–3 | L |
| 02 Oct | Fortaleza EC | A | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Sep | Ceará SC | H | 0–1 | L |
| Date | Opponent | H/A | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Oct | Sao Paulo FC | A | 0–2 | L |
| 22 Oct | SC Internacional | H | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Oct | Gremio FBPA | H | 4–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | EC Vitoria | A | 1–2 | L |
| 05 Oct | CR Flamengo | H | 1–0 | W |
| 02 Oct | Botafogo FR | A | 1–2 | L |
Season Stats
| Sao Paulo FC | EC Bahia | |
|---|---|---|
| #12 | Position | #5 |
| 27 | Points | 33 |
| 22 | Played | 22 |
| 7 / 6 / 9 | W / D / L | 8 / 9 / 5 |
| 27 | Scored | 29 |
| 26 | Conceded | 25 |
| +1 | GD | +4 |
| 1.23 | PPG | 1.50 |
| 32% | Win % | 36% |
Key Stats
50%
Both Teams to Score
H2H (18 games)
H2H (18 games)
44%
Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history
H2H history
23%
Clean Sheets
Sao Paulo FC this season
Sao Paulo FC this season
41%
Clean Sheets
EC Bahia this season
EC Bahia this season
Sao Paulo FC are 12th (27 pts). EC Bahia are 5th (33 pts).
Goal Timing (This Season)
Sao Paulo FC
0-15
3/–
16-30
3/3
31-45
3/2
46-60
–/8
61-75
3/2
76+
4/5
■ Scored ■ Conceded
EC Bahia
0-15
2/1
16-30
1/3
31-45
3/4
46-60
2/–
61-75
3/2
76+
5/2
■ Scored ■ Conceded
Top Scorers (This Season)
Sao Paulo FC
| Jonathan Calleri | 7 G | 1 A |
| Luciano | 6 G | 1 A |
| Ferreira | 4 G | |
| Artur Guimaraes | 3 G | 1 A |
EC Bahia
| Luciano Juba | 7 G | 1 A |
| Everaldo | 4 G | |
| Willian Jose | 3 G | 1 A |
Events
Match Events
- 0' KICK OFF: EC Bahia gets underway.
- 5' Although teams showed high tempo form the start, they seem to slow down a bit. Both sides really need to catch a fire. Otherwise, we have another goalless match.
- 7' The Brazil Luciano breaks the deadlock on 7 minutes. 1-0!
- 12' Maik is putting in a real shift tonight. He has covered more ground than anyone else for Sao Paulo FC so far.
- 17' Sao Paulo FC are enjoying more possession but struggling to find a way through a disciplined EC Bahia backline.
- 22' The travelling EC Bahia supporters hardly appreciate their team being pressed down to the backline.
- 27' The referee calls foul for Maik. He receives a card.
- 31' Controversy at the stadium! David Duarte argues furiously but the card stands.
- 36' Ademir Santos has been a danger all night but risks an early exit having now seen a card on 36.
- 41' A stunning finish from Damian Bobadilla — that came from absolutely nowhere!
- 46' The supporters are chanting for Mateo Sanabria. He replaces Tiago on 46 minute.
- 51' Not even hints on scoring a goal over the last 51 minutes.
- 54' That is a card for Sao Paulo FC. Luciano will be fuming at that decision.
- 59' Mateo Sanabria makes way for Kayky at the 59 minute mark. A tactical switch from EC Bahia.
- 60' The EC Bahia manager makes a substitution. Gilberto departs to be replaced by Erick.
- 65' It looks like no one’s ball. Sao Paulo FC is used to counterattacking playing. None of the sides are ready to take the lead.
- 66' Fresh legs for Sao Paulo FC! Gonzalo Tapia comes on to replace Lucas Moura.
- 71' Over 71 minutes have gone by without a meaningful attack. The supporters want more.
- 76' Lucas Moura has been relatively quiet despite scoring 49 goals in his last 385 appearances.
- 78' Sao Paulo FC make a change. Pablo Maia trudges off to be replaced by Luiz Gustavo on 78 minutes.
- 79' Fresh legs for Sao Paulo FC! Ferreira comes on to replace Luciano.
- 84' Sao Paulo FC are keeping things exceptionally tight at the back. It will take something special to break them down.
- 87' A tactical swap from Sao Paulo FC — Felipe Negrucci on, Damian Bobadilla off on 87 minutes.
- 90' The referee reaches into his pocket. Out comes the card for Rodrigo Nestor.
- EC Bahia will have plenty to reflect on. Sao Paulo FC were simply the better side today.
Lineups
Sao Paulo FC Lineups
Starting XI
- 10
- 5
- 7
- 20
- 28
- 35
- 13
- 29
- 23
- 21
- 42
Bench
- 25
- 16
- 77
- 11
- 36
- 22
- 15
- 50
- 43
- 14
EC Bahia Lineups
Starting XI
- 96
- 6
- 7
- 12
-
13
Santiago Arias ↓ Gilberto 46'
-
25
Iago Borduchi ↓ Luciano Juba 46'
- 11
- 33
- 21
- 26
-
77
Tiago ↓ Mateo Sanabria 46'
Bench
-
2
Gilberto ↑ 46'
- 4
- 8
- 1
- 14
-
46
Luciano Juba ↑ 46'
- 15
- 37
- 5
-
23
Mateo Sanabria ↑ 46'
- 3
- 66
Coach
Rogério Ceni
H2H
H2H Top Scorers
| Player | Goals |
|---|---|
| Luciano | 6 |
| Willian Jose | 2 |
| Edigar Junio | 2 |
| Ferreira | 2 |
| Edigar Junio | 2 |
| Robert Arboleda | 1 |
| Luciano Juba | 1 |
| Shaylon | 1 |
Head to Head
Sao Paulo FC Form
Predictions
Prediction accuracy
3 / 4
1.59
Sao Paulo FC xG
Expected Goals
Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo
0.97
EC Bahia xG
I would bet for:
Markets are evenly balanced — no clear value pick.
Match Result
✓ CorrectActual: Sao Paulo FC win
Both Teams to Score
✓ Correct
Avg goals/match: 2.56
Actual: No — clean sheet
Over / Under Goals
✓ O/U 2.5| Line | Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ± 0.5 | 90% |
|
10% |
| ± 1.5 | 72% |
|
28% |
| ± 2.5 | 47% |
|
53% |
| ± 3.5 | 26% |
|
74% |
| ± 4.5 | 12% |
|
88% |
Double Chance
Sao Paulo FC or Draw
78%
Draw or EC Bahia
48%
Sao Paulo FC or EC Bahia
74%
Half-Time Result
✗ WrongActual: Sao Paulo FC win at HT
Correct Score
✓ In top 12
1 – 1
12.8%
1 – 0
11.4%
0 – 0
9.8%
2 – 0
Actual
2 – 1
9.1%
0 – 1
6.5%
1 – 2
5.5%
3 – 0
5%
3 – 1
4.9%
2 – 2
4.5%
0 – 2
3.5%
3 – 2
2.5%
Asian Handicap — Sao Paulo FC
| Handicap | Sao Paulo FC covers | Push | EC Bahia covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 11% | — | 89% |
| -2 | 11% | 16% | 73% |
| -1.5 | 27% | — | 73% |
| -1 | 27% | 23% | 50% |
| -0.5 | 50% | — | 50% |
| +0.5 | 78% | — | 22% |
| +1 | 78% | 14% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | — | 8% |
| +2 | 92% | 6% | 2% |
| +2.5 | 98% | — | 2% |
Clean Sheet
Sao Paulo FC keeps clean sheet
39%
✗
EC Bahia keeps clean sheet
21%
✓
Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.