Thursday , 1 October 2026

Gremio FBPA vs Sao Paulo FC, Serie A 2025 REGULAR SEASON

Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A · 2025
Gremio FBPA
2 – 0
Full Time
Sao Paulo FC
Thu 16 Oct 2025 · 22:00 UTC Arena do Gremio HT 45' · FT 45'
Y 21' Gonzalo Tapia
Y 64' Mailton dos Santos
Y 75' Luciano
Dodi 90' Y

Overview

Match Preview

Grêmio FBPA vs São Paulo FC — Serie A at Arena do Gremio.

Standings

# Team P Pts
1 CR Flamengo 28 60
2 SE Palmeiras 28 57
3 CA Paranaense 28 49
4 Fluminense FC 28 48
5 EC Bahia 28 46
6 Cruzeiro EC 28 45
7 CA Mineiro 27 40
8 Santos FC 27 38
9 Coritiba FBC 28 38
10 RB Bragantino 27 36
11 Sao Paulo FC 27 36
12 Botafogo FR 28 35
13 EC Vitoria 28 33
14 SC Corinthians Paulista 28 32
15 Mirassol FC 28 32
16 CR Vasco da Gama 27 31
17 Gremio FBPA 28 29
18 SC Internacional 28 28
19 Clube do Remo 28 23
20 Chapecoense AF 27 18

Head-to-Head

8
4
6
Gremio FBPA 18 games · Avg 2.2 goals Sao Paulo FC
Last 5 meetings
2025-10-16 Gremio FBPA 2–0 Sao Paulo FC 2025-05-18 Sao Paulo FC 2–1 Gremio FBPA 2024-12-01 Gremio FBPA 2–1 Sao Paulo FC 2024-07-17 Sao Paulo FC 1–0 Gremio FBPA 2023-10-21 Sao Paulo FC 3–0 Gremio FBPA

Recent Form

Gremio FBPA
DateOpponentH/A ScoreResult
16 Oct Sao Paulo FC H 2–0 W
04 Oct RB Bragantino A 0–1 L
02 Oct Santos FC A 1–1 D
28 Sep EC Vitoria H 3–1 W
24 Sep Botafogo FR H 1–1 D
21 Sep SC Internacional A 3–2 W
Sao Paulo FC
DateOpponentH/A ScoreResult
16 Oct Gremio FBPA A 0–2 L
05 Oct SE Palmeiras H 2–3 L
02 Oct Fortaleza EC A 2–0 W
29 Sep Ceará SC H 0–1 L
21 Sep Santos FC A 0–1 L
14 Sep Botafogo FR H 1–0 W

Season Stats

Gremio FBPA Sao Paulo FC
#17 Position #11
29 Points 36
28 Played 27
7 / 8 / 13 W / D / L 10 / 6 / 11
30 Scored 32
38 Conceded 30
-8 GD +2
1.04 PPG 1.33
25% Win % 37%

Key Stats

50% Both Teams to Score
H2H (18 games)
56% Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history
29% Clean Sheets
Gremio FBPA this season
26% Clean Sheets
Sao Paulo FC this season

Gremio FBPA are 17th (29 pts). Sao Paulo FC are 11th (36 pts).

Goal Timing (This Season)

Gremio FBPA
0-15
–/1
16-30
2/3
31-45
4/4
46-60
4/3
61-75
2/7
76+
4/4
■ Scored ■ Conceded
Sao Paulo FC
0-15
5/–
16-30
3/4
31-45
4/3
46-60
–/9
61-75
5/2
76+
4/6
■ Scored ■ Conceded

Top Scorers (This Season)

Gremio FBPA
Carlos Vinicius 10 G 1 A
Sao Paulo FC
Luciano 8 G 1 A
Jonathan Calleri 8 G 1 A
Ferreira 4 G
Artur Guimaraes 3 G 1 A

Events

Match Events

  • 0' The game is set. Gremio FBPA kicks off things out of here…
  • 5' It is a cagey affair so far. Gremio FBPA in their trying to find a way past Sao Paulo FC's compact .
  • 10' Spectators do not have much to choose from both teams. The sides had several scoring chances but they still need a bit more than just a sight of a goal.
  • 13' Another substitution for Sao Paulo FC to replace Wendell by Patryck on 13 minute.
  • 18' Sao Paulo FC is showing some good football. However, Sao Paulo FC are ready to play back every minute. It might result in some problems for the home side. The game will hardly remain goalless.
  • 21' The referee reaches into his pocket. Out comes the card for Gonzalo Tapia.
  • 26' While there is no rush on the pitch, let’s have a look at some stats. Luciano made 393 appearances and scored 64 goals. He is very likely to score a goal today.
  • 29' The Gremio FBPA bench stirs into life. Alysson is withdrawn and Cristian Pavon gets his opportunity.
  • 34' A quiet spell here at Arena do Gremio. Gremio FBPA seem content sitting deep and soaking up pressure.
  • 39' What composure from Carlos Vinicius! The Brazil international strokes it home. 1-0.
  • 44' While players are taking a pause, let’s have a look at their stats. The teams met 2 times this season with Sao Paulo FC winning 50% of all matches.
  • 46' The whistle greets Alan Franco as he departs to be replaced by Lucas Moura.
  • 51' Neither side is committing men forward. This has all the hallmarks of a tense, tactical contest.
  • 56' A stunning finish from Carlos Vinicius — that came from absolutely nowhere!
  • 61' The 37-year-old Rafael Monteiro has been sensational this season — 0 goals and 0 assists is a remarkable return.
  • 64' Mailton dos Santos was booked on 64.
  • 66' Ferreira is ready to make an impact after coming on for Rodrigo Huendra at the 66 minute mark.
  • 67' The supporters are chanting for Cristian Olivera. He replaces Carlos Vinicius on 67 minute.
  • 72' The travelling Sao Paulo FC supporters hardly appreciate their team being pressed down to the backline.
  • 75' Sao Paulo FC receives a card for a hard tackle on 75.
  • 80' A change in the Sao Paulo FC ranks — Luciano exits the field as Emiliano Rigoni enters on 80.
  • 84' Another substitution for Gremio FBPA to replace Arthur by Gustavo Martins on 84 minute.
  • 89' Gremio FBPA currently sit in the Array table. A result here could be decisive in the race for the top positions.
  • 90' Poor challenge from Dodi. The referee spots it immediately and shows the card.
  • It finishes all square. Gremio FBPA and Sao Paulo FC share the spoils 2-0.

Lineups

Grêmio FBPA Lineups

Starting XI

Bench

Coach Mano Menezes

São Paulo FC Lineups

Starting XI

Bench

H2H

H2H Top Scorers

PlayerGoals
Everton 3
Everton 2
Luciano 2
Franco Cristaldo 2
Carlos Vinicius 2
Luciano 2
Cristian Pavon 1
Diogo Barbosa 1

Head to Head

2025-10-16 Gremio FBPA 2–0 Sao Paulo FC 2025-05-18 Sao Paulo FC 2–1 Gremio FBPA 2024-12-01 Gremio FBPA 2–1 Sao Paulo FC 2024-07-17 Sao Paulo FC 1–0 Gremio FBPA 2023-10-21 Sao Paulo FC 3–0 Gremio FBPA

Grêmio FBPA Form

2025-10-16 Gremio FBPA 2–0 Sao Paulo FC L 2025-10-04 RB Bragantino 1–0 Gremio FBPA L 2025-10-02 Santos FC 1–1 Gremio FBPA D 2025-09-28 Gremio FBPA 3–1 EC Vitoria L 2025-09-24 Gremio FBPA 1–1 Botafogo FR D 2025-09-21 SC Internacional 2–3 Gremio FBPA W

São Paulo FC Form

2025-10-16 Gremio FBPA 2–0 Sao Paulo FC L 2025-10-05 Sao Paulo FC 2–3 SE Palmeiras W 2025-10-02 Fortaleza EC 0–2 Sao Paulo FC W 2025-09-29 Sao Paulo FC 0–1 Ceará SC W 2025-09-21 Santos FC 1–0 Sao Paulo FC L 2025-09-14 Sao Paulo FC 1–0 Botafogo FR L

Predictions

Prediction accuracy
3 / 4
1.22 Grêmio FBPA xG
Expected Goals
Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo
1.05 São Paulo FC xG
I would bet for: Grêmio FBPA or Draw 73% + Under 2.5 goals 61%

Match Result

✓ Correct
Grêmio FBPA44% Draw29% São Paulo FC27%
Actual: Grêmio FBPA win

Both Teams to Score

✓ Correct
Yes47% 0% No53%
Avg goals/match: 2.27
Actual: No — clean sheet

Over / Under Goals

✓ O/U 2.5
Line Over Under
± 0.5 87%
13%
± 1.5 66%
34%
± 2.5 39%
61%
± 3.5 20%
80%
± 4.5 9%
91%

Double Chance

Grêmio FBPA or Draw
73%
Draw or São Paulo FC
56%
Grêmio FBPA or São Paulo FC
71%

Half-Time Result

✗ Wrong
Grêmio FBPA27% Draw51% São Paulo FC22%
Actual: Grêmio FBPA win at HT

Correct Score

✓ In top 12
1 – 1
14.2%
0 – 0
12.6%
1 – 0
11.4%
0 – 1
9.6%
2 – 1
7.8%
2 – 0
Actual
1 – 2
6.7%
0 – 2
5.5%
2 – 2
4.2%
3 – 1
3.2%
3 – 0
3%
1 – 3
2.4%

Asian Handicap — Grêmio FBPA

Handicap Grêmio FBPA covers Push São Paulo FC covers
-2.5 6% — 94%
-2 6% 11% 83%
-1.5 17% — 83%
-1 17% 21% 62%
-0.5 38% — 62%
+0.5 70% — 30%
+1 70% 18% 12%
+1.5 88% — 12%
+2 88% 8% 4%
+2.5 96% — 4%

Clean Sheet

Grêmio FBPA keeps clean sheet
36% ✗
São Paulo FC keeps clean sheet
30% ✓

Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.