FC Cincinnati vs Toronto FC, MLS 2025 REGULAR SEASON
Overview
Match Preview
FC Cincinnati vs Toronto FC — MLS at TQL Stadium.
- FC Cincinnati 15 games · 20 pts (2026/26)
- Toronto FC 14 games · 14 pts (2026/26)
Standings
| # | Team | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 14 | 33 |
| 2 | Internacional CF Miami | 15 | 31 |
| 3 | Chicago Fire FC | 14 | 26 |
| 4 | New England Revolution | 14 | 25 |
| 5 | New York Red Bulls | 15 | 22 |
| 6 | Charlotte FC | 15 | 21 |
| 7 | FC Cincinnati | 15 | 20 |
| 8 | New York City FC | 15 | 19 |
| 9 | D.C. United SC | 15 | 18 |
| 10 | Columbus Crew SC | 15 | 16 |
| 11 | Toronto FC | 14 | 14 |
| 12 | Montreal Impact FC | 14 | 14 |
| 13 | Orlando City SC | 15 | 14 |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 14 | 11 |
| 15 | Philadelphia Union | 15 | 7 |
| 16 | Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 14 | 32 |
| 17 | San Jose Earthquakes | 15 | 32 |
| 18 | Real Salt Lake | 14 | 26 |
| 19 | FC Dallas | 15 | 25 |
| 20 | Los Angeles FC | 15 | 24 |
| 21 | Seattle Sounders FC | 13 | 24 |
| 22 | Houston Dynamo | 14 | 22 |
| 23 | Minnesota United FC | 15 | 22 |
| 24 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 15 | 20 |
| 25 | San Diego FC | 15 | 17 |
| 26 | Colorado Rapids SC | 15 | 16 |
| 27 | St. Louis City | 14 | 16 |
| 28 | Portland Timbers | 14 | 14 |
| 29 | Austin FC | 15 | 14 |
| 30 | Sporting Kansas City | 14 | 11 |
Head-to-Head
Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | H/A | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Mar | Toronto FC | H | 2–0 | W |
| 02 Mar | Philadelphia Union | A | 1–4 | L |
| 23 Feb | New York Red Bulls | H | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Oct | Philadelphia Union | A | 2–1 | W |
| 05 Oct | Orlando City SC | H | 1–3 | L |
| 02 Oct | New York City FC | A | 2–3 | L |
| Date | Opponent | H/A | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Mar | FC Cincinnati | A | 0–2 | L |
| 02 Mar | Orlando City SC | A | 2–4 | L |
| 23 Feb | D.C. United SC | A | 2–2 | D |
| 05 Oct | Internacional CF Miami | H | 0–1 | L |
| 02 Oct | New York Red Bulls | H | 1–4 | L |
| 29 Sep | Chicago Fire FC | A | 1–1 | D |
Season Stats
| FC Cincinnati | Toronto FC | |
|---|---|---|
| #7 | Position | #11 |
| 20 | Points | 14 |
| 15 | Played | 14 |
| 5 / 5 / 5 | W / D / L | 3 / 5 / 6 |
| 36 | Scored | 22 |
| 37 | Conceded | 29 |
| -1 | GD | -7 |
| 1.33 | PPG | 1.00 |
| 33% | Win % | 21% |
Key Stats
44%
Both Teams to Score
H2H (16 games)
H2H (16 games)
44%
Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history
H2H history
27%
Clean Sheets
FC Cincinnati this season
FC Cincinnati this season
7%
Clean Sheets
Toronto FC this season
Toronto FC this season
FC Cincinnati are 7th (20 pts). Toronto FC are 11th (14 pts).
Goal Timing (This Season)
FC Cincinnati
0-15
1/1
16-30
2/5
31-45
7/3
46-60
3/4
61-75
2/1
76+
8/3
■ Scored ■ Conceded
Toronto FC
0-15
1/1
16-30
1/3
31-45
1/3
46-60
2/5
61-75
4/4
76+
5/5
■ Scored ■ Conceded
Events
Match Events
- 0' The wait is over. Toronto FC get us underway at TQL Stadium.
- 5' Spectators are craving for more action. Both teams play very cautiously. They need to put some more energy.
- 10' FC Cincinnati are deployed in a today, looking to exploit space against Toronto FC's shape.
- 15' Players seem to put ease on their energy level Spectators hardly appreciate such approach. Teams need to speed up the tempo.
- 20' Both teams are passing the ball around with high level of urgency. Toronto FC needs to do something about it to get closer to the goal.
- 25' Toronto FC has dominated the recent head-to-head record, winning 1 of the last 2 meetings.
- 30' The home supporters are growing impatient. FC Cincinnati must find a spark to ignite this game.
- 35' Kevin Denkey, a Togo , has 1 bookings this season and will need to keep his discipline tonight.
- 40' The clock is ticking and both teams know a goal could change everything at this point.
- 45' Corey Baird has been relatively quiet despite scoring 38 goals in his last 280 appearances.
- 46' Fresh legs for Toronto FC! Deandre Kerr comes on to replace Ola Brynhildsen.
- 50' A moment of madness from Kosi Thompson on 50 minutes earns him a card. Toronto FC will be frustrated.
- 55' Toronto FC are happy to let the opposition have the ball in their own half. The trap is set.
- 60' Alonso Coello Camarero has been one of the livelier players on the pitch with 0 goals to his name this season.
- 61' The FC Cincinnati manager makes a substitution. Luca Orellano departs to be replaced by Evander.
- 66' While players are taking a pause, let’s have a look at their stats. The teams met 2 times this season with Toronto FC winning 50% of all matches.
- 67' The referee does not hesitate — a card for Evander on 67 minutes.
- 72' FC Cincinnati are enjoying more possession but struggling to find a way through a disciplined Toronto FC backline.
- 73' A goal from the Togo international Kevin Denkey! He fires home on 73 to make it 1-0!
- 74' FC Cincinnati ring the changes. Kevin Denkey has done his job and it is now time for Sergio Santos to step up.
- 75' The Toronto FC manager makes a substitution. Nicksoen Gomis departs to be replaced by Theo Corbeanu.
- 80' Supporters expect more eagerness from Roman Celentano, as he is very good at scoring at TQL Stadium with 0 goals in the last 0 games.
- 84' Zane Monlouis makes way for Obinna Nwobodo at the 84 minute mark. A tactical switch from FC Cincinnati.
- 88' Yuya Kubo adds to his 0 season tally! FC Cincinnati lead 2-0 — and this changes everything.
- 90' Poor challenge from Alvas Powell. The referee spots it immediately and shows the card.
- Hope, you loved the show. Another epic battle is over with the score 2-0.
Lineups
FC Cincinnati Lineups
Starting XI
- 7
- 11
- 2
- 12
- 20
-
9
Kevin Denkey ↓ Sergio Santos 74'
-
23
Luca Orellano ↓ Evander 61'
- 16
- 27
- 18
-
29
Lukas Engel ↓ DeAndre Yedlin 61'
Bench
-
10
Evander ↑ 61'
-
91
DeAndre Yedlin ↑ 61'
- 13
- 5
-
17
Sergio Santos ↑ 74'
- 37
- 22
- 19
-
3
Gilberto Flores ↑ 61'
Coach
Pat Noonan
Toronto FC Lineups
Starting XI
- 5
- 10
- 21
- 1
- 8
-
9
Ola Brynhildsen ↓ Deandre Kerr 46'
- 6
- 20
- 12
-
15
Nicksoen Gomis ↓ Theo Corbeanu 75'
- 16
Bench
- 11
-
7
Theo Corbeanu ↑ 75'
-
29
Deandre Kerr ↑ 46'
- 90
- 19
-
14
Alonso Coello Camarero ↑ 75'
- 71
- 76
Coach
Robin Fraser
H2H
H2H Top Scorers
| Player | Goals |
|---|---|
| Luciano Acosta | 5 |
| Emmanuel Ledesma | 2 |
| Kevin Denkey | 2 |
| Ian Murphy | 2 |
| Marky Delgado | 2 |
| Jonathan Osorio | 2 |
| Patrick Mullins | 2 |
| Allan Cruz | 2 |
Head to Head
FC Cincinnati Form
Predictions
Prediction accuracy
1 / 4
2.83
FC Cincinnati xG
Expected Goals
Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo
1.63
Toronto FC xG
I would bet for:
Over 2.5 goals 81% + Both teams to score 75%
Match Result
✓ CorrectActual: FC Cincinnati win
Both Teams to Score
✗ Wrong
Avg goals/match: 4.46
Actual: No — clean sheet
Over / Under Goals
✗ O/U 2.5| Line | Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ± 0.5 | 98% |
|
2% |
| ± 1.5 | 93% |
|
7% |
| ± 2.5 | 81% |
|
19% |
| ± 3.5 | 64% |
|
36% |
| ± 4.5 | 45% |
|
55% |
Double Chance
FC Cincinnati or Draw
81%
Draw or Toronto FC
38%
FC Cincinnati or Toronto FC
81%
Half-Time Result
✗ WrongActual: Draw at HT
Correct Score
✓ In top 12
2 – 1
7.5%
3 – 1
6.9%
1 – 1
6.1%
2 – 2
6%
3 – 2
5.5%
4 – 1
4.8%
2 – 0
Actual
3 – 0
4.4%
1 – 2
4.4%
4 – 2
3.9%
2 – 3
3.2%
1 – 0
3.1%
Asian Handicap — FC Cincinnati
| Handicap | FC Cincinnati covers | Push | Toronto FC covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 25% | — | 75% |
| -2 | 25% | 17% | 58% |
| -1.5 | 42% | — | 58% |
| -1 | 42% | 19% | 39% |
| -0.5 | 61% | — | 39% |
| +0.5 | 79% | — | 21% |
| +1 | 79% | 11% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | — | 10% |
| +2 | 90% | 6% | 4% |
| +2.5 | 96% | — | 4% |
Clean Sheet
FC Cincinnati keeps clean sheet
20%
✗
Toronto FC keeps clean sheet
7%
✓
Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.