Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati, MLS 2025 REGULAR SEASON

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MLS · 2025

Philadelphia Union

4 – 1

Full Time

FC Cincinnati

Sun 2 Mar 2025 · 00:30 UTC Subaru Park HT 45' · FT 45'

Y 76' Obinna Nwobodo

Overview

Match Preview

Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati — MLS at Subaru Park.

Philadelphia Union 18 games · 16 pts (2026/26)
FC Cincinnati 18 games · 26 pts (2026/26)

Standings

#	Team	P	Pts
1	Nashville SC	18	40
2	Internacional CF Miami	18	38
3	New England Revolution	18	30
4	Chicago Fire FC	17	29
5	New York City FC	18	26
6	FC Cincinnati	18	26
7	Charlotte FC	18	25
8	New York Red Bulls	18	25
9	D.C. United SC	18	23
10	Columbus Crew SC	18	20
11	Orlando City SC	18	20
12	Toronto FC	18	17
13	Philadelphia Union	18	16
14	Montreal Impact FC	18	16
15	Atlanta United FC	18	12
16	Vancouver Whitecaps FC	17	34
17	Los Angeles FC	19	34
18	San Jose Earthquakes	18	33
19	Houston Dynamo	18	32
20	FC Dallas	18	27
21	Real Salt Lake	17	27
22	St. Louis City	18	26
23	Portland Timbers	18	24
24	Seattle Sounders FC	17	24
25	Minnesota United FC	18	24
26	Colorado Rapids SC	18	22
27	Los Angeles Galaxy	19	22
28	San Diego FC	18	21
29	Austin FC	18	17
30	Sporting Kansas City	18	14

Head-to-Head

Philadelphia Union 15 games · Avg 2.7 goals FC Cincinnati

Last 5 meetings

2025-03-02 Philadelphia Union 4–1 FC Cincinnati 2024-10-19 Philadelphia Union 1–2 FC Cincinnati 2024-06-19 FC Cincinnati 4–3 Philadelphia Union 2023-09-16 Philadelphia Union 2–2 FC Cincinnati 2023-04-08 FC Cincinnati 1–0 Philadelphia Union

Recent Form

Philadelphia Union

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
02 Mar	FC Cincinnati	H	4–1	W
23 Feb	Orlando City SC	A	4–2	W
19 Oct	FC Cincinnati	H	1–2	L
05 Oct	Columbus Crew SC	A	2–3	L
02 Oct	Orlando City SC	A	1–2	L
28 Sep	Atlanta United FC	H	1–1	D

FC Cincinnati

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
02 Mar	Philadelphia Union	A	1–4	L
23 Feb	New York Red Bulls	H	1–0	W
19 Oct	Philadelphia Union	A	2–1	W
05 Oct	Orlando City SC	H	1–3	L
02 Oct	New York City FC	A	2–3	L
28 Sep	Los Angeles FC	H	1–2	L

Season Stats

Philadelphia Union		FC Cincinnati
#13	Position	#6
16	Points	26
18	Played	18
4 / 4 / 10	W / D / L	7 / 5 / 6
25	Scored	45
33	Conceded	44
-8	GD	+1
0.89	PPG	1.44
22%	Win %	39%

Key Stats

47% Both Teams to Score
H2H (15 games)

47% Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history

22% Clean Sheets
Philadelphia Union this season

21% Clean Sheets
FC Cincinnati this season

Philadelphia Union are 13th (16 pts). FC Cincinnati are 6th (26 pts).

Goal Timing (This Season)

Philadelphia Union

0-15

3/3

16-30

1/5

31-45

3/3

46-60

3/1

61-75

4/2

76+

4/2

■ Scored ■ Conceded

FC Cincinnati

0-15

3/2

16-30

4/7

31-45

9/5

46-60

4/7

61-75

2/1

76+

11/3

■ Scored ■ Conceded

Top Scorers (This Season)

Philadelphia Union

Milan Iloski

8 G

1 A

FC Cincinnati

Evander	10 G	4 A
Kevin Denkey	10 G	1 A
Tom Barlow	5 G

Events

Match Events

0' In just a few seconds Subaru Park will turn into a battlefield for Philadelphia Union and FC Cincinnati.
5' has dominated the recent head-to-head record, winning 0 of the last 0 meetings.
6' GOAL! Tai Baribo scores on 6. Assisted by Kai Wagner
11' Lukas Engel is putting in a real shift tonight. He has covered more ground than anyone else for Philadelphia Union so far.
16' FC Cincinnati are keeping things exceptionally tight at the back. It will take something special to break them down.
21' Philadelphia Union are deployed in a today, looking to exploit space against FC Cincinnati's shape.
26' FC Cincinnati come into this ranked in Array. They desperately need points to push themselves up the standings.
30' Tai Baribo does the damage! The net is bulging and Philadelphia Union surge ahead!
35' While there is no rush on the pitch, let’s have a look at some stats. Danley Jean Jacques made 434 appearances and scored 6 goals. He is very likely to score a goal today.
40' Philadelphia Union are enjoying more possession but struggling to find a way through a disciplined FC Cincinnati backline.
45' The teams are not in a rush to score plenty of goals. It might look strange considering Philadelphia Union that had 289 games and scored 484 goals.
50' With 0 assists to his name this season, Mikkel Uhre is clearly more than just a goal scorer for Philadelphia Union.
52' Against the run of play, Tai Baribo has scored! This game has turned on its head.
57' The tempo has dropped considerably in the last few minutes. Pat Noonan will be considering his options from the bench.
58' Evander makes no mistake. The score reads 3-1 and FC Cincinnati are in front.
58' Another substitution for FC Cincinnati to replace Yuya Kubo by Corey Baird on 58 minute.
59' FC Cincinnati make a change. DeAndre Yedlin trudges off to be replaced by Bret Halsey on 59 minutes.
64' A quiet spell here at Subaru Park. FC Cincinnati seem content sitting deep and soaking up pressure.
69' The whistle greets Mikkel Uhre as he departs to be replaced by Bruno Damiani.
70' Another change for FC Cincinnati made on 70 minute. Gilberto Flores leaves to be changed by Alvas Powell.
75' The travelling FC Cincinnati supporters hardly appreciate their team being pressed down to the backline.
76' The referee has no hesitation. Obinna Nwobodo is booked for FC Cincinnati — card on 76.
81' Over 81 minutes have gone by without a meaningful attack. The supporters want more.
82' The Philadelphia Union bench stirs into life. Daniel Gazdag is withdrawn and Indiana Vassilev gets his opportunity.
85' Time for substitution for FC Cincinnati. Lukas Engel is replaced by Kenji Mboma.
89' The crowd applauds Jovan Lukic as he leaves the pitch. Jesus Bueno steps in for Philadelphia Union.
It finishes all square. Philadelphia Union and FC Cincinnati share the spoils 4-1.

Lineups

Philadelphia Union Lineups

Starting XI

Bench

Coach Bradley Carnell

FC Cincinnati Lineups

Starting XI

Bench

11
Corey Baird ↑ 58'
13
Evan Louro
2
Alvas Powell ↑ 70'
20
Pavel Bucha ↑ 58'
15
Bret Halsey ↑ 59'
35
Kenji Mboma ↑ 85'
19
Stefan Chirila
49
Peter Mangione

Coach Pat Noonan

H2H

H2H Top Scorers

Player	Goals
Tai Baribo	5
Brandon Vazquez	4
Luciano Acosta	3
Paxten Aaronson	3
Bruno Damiani	2
Alejandro Bedoya	2
Olivier Mbaizo	1
Jacob Glesnes	1

Head to Head

Philadelphia Union Form

2025-03-02 Philadelphia Union 4–1 FC Cincinnati W 2025-02-23 Orlando City SC 2–4 Philadelphia Union W 2024-10-19 Philadelphia Union 1–2 FC Cincinnati L 2024-10-05 Columbus Crew SC 3–2 Philadelphia Union L 2024-10-02 Orlando City SC 2–1 Philadelphia Union L 2024-09-28 Philadelphia Union 1–1 Atlanta United FC D

FC Cincinnati Form

2025-03-02 Philadelphia Union 4–1 FC Cincinnati L 2025-02-23 FC Cincinnati 1–0 New York Red Bulls W 2024-10-19 Philadelphia Union 1–2 FC Cincinnati W 2024-10-05 FC Cincinnati 1–3 Orlando City SC L 2024-10-02 New York City FC 3–2 FC Cincinnati L 2024-09-28 FC Cincinnati 1–2 Los Angeles FC L

Predictions

Prediction accuracy

4 / 4

2.44 Philadelphia Union xG

Expected Goals

Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo

2.23 FC Cincinnati xG

I would bet for: Over 2.5 goals 83% + Both teams to score 81%

Match Result

✓ Correct

Philadelphia Union44% Draw22% FC Cincinnati34%

Actual: Philadelphia Union win

Both Teams to Score

✓ Correct

Yes81% 0% No19%

Avg goals/match: 4.67

Actual: Yes — both scored

Over / Under Goals

✓ O/U 2.5

Line	Over	Under
± 0.5	98%	2%
± 1.5	94%	6%
± 2.5	83%	17%
± 3.5	67%	33%
± 4.5	49%	51%

Double Chance

Philadelphia Union or Draw

66%

Draw or FC Cincinnati

56%

Philadelphia Union or FC Cincinnati

78%

Half-Time Result

✓ Correct

Philadelphia Union35% Draw35% FC Cincinnati30%

Actual: Philadelphia Union win at HT

Correct Score

✓ In top 12

2 – 2

6.7%

2 – 1

6.2%

1 – 1

5.8%

1 – 2

5.7%

3 – 2

5.4%

2 – 3

4.9%

3 – 1

4.9%

1 – 3

4.1%

3 – 3

4 – 2

3.3%

4 – 1

Actual

2 – 0

Asian Handicap — Philadelphia Union

Handicap	Philadelphia Union covers	Push	FC Cincinnati covers
-2.5	14%	—	86%
-2	14%	13%	73%
-1.5	27%	—	73%
-1	27%	17%	56%
-0.5	44%	—	56%
+0.5	64%	—	36%
+1	64%	16%	21%
+1.5	79%	—	21%
+2	79%	11%	10%
+2.5	90%	—	10%

Clean Sheet

Philadelphia Union keeps clean sheet

12% ✓

FC Cincinnati keeps clean sheet

10% ✓

Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.