Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati, MLS 2025 REGULAR SEASON

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MLS · 2025

Philadelphia Union

4 – 1

Full Time

FC Cincinnati

Sun 2 Mar 2025 · 00:30 UTC Subaru Park HT 45' · FT 45'

Y 76' Obinna Nwobodo

Overview

Match Preview

Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati — MLS at Subaru Park.

Philadelphia Union 34 games · 50 pts (2026/26)
FC Cincinnati 34 games · 46 pts (2026/26)

Standings

#	Team	P	Pts
1	Nashville SC	34	77
2	Internacional CF Miami	34	60
3	New England Revolution	34	58
4	Chicago Fire FC	34	55
5	Charlotte FC	34	54
6	Philadelphia Union	34	50
7	Columbus Crew SC	34	47
8	FC Cincinnati	34	46
9	Orlando City SC	34	46
10	New York City FC	34	42
11	New York Red Bulls	34	42
12	Toronto FC	34	39
13	Atlanta United FC	34	33
14	D.C. United SC	34	33
15	Montreal Impact FC	34	26
16	Vancouver Whitecaps FC	34	64
17	FC Dallas	34	58
18	St. Louis City	34	54
19	San Jose Earthquakes	34	52
20	Houston Dynamo	34	51
21	Los Angeles FC	34	47
22	Portland Timbers	34	46
23	Seattle Sounders FC	34	46
24	Real Salt Lake	34	45
25	Minnesota United FC	34	44
26	Los Angeles Galaxy	34	44
27	Colorado Rapids SC	34	43
28	San Diego FC	34	38
29	Austin FC	34	34
30	Sporting Kansas City	34	26

Head-to-Head

Philadelphia Union 17 games · Avg 2.7 goals FC Cincinnati

Last 5 meetings

2025-03-02 Philadelphia Union 4–1 FC Cincinnati 2024-10-19 Philadelphia Union 1–2 FC Cincinnati 2024-06-19 FC Cincinnati 4–3 Philadelphia Union 2023-09-16 Philadelphia Union 2–2 FC Cincinnati 2023-04-08 FC Cincinnati 1–0 Philadelphia Union

Recent Form

Philadelphia Union

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
02 Mar	FC Cincinnati	H	4–1	W
23 Feb	Orlando City SC	A	4–2	W
19 Oct	FC Cincinnati	H	1–2	L
05 Oct	Columbus Crew SC	A	2–3	L
02 Oct	Orlando City SC	A	1–2	L
28 Sep	Atlanta United FC	H	1–1	D

FC Cincinnati

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
02 Mar	Philadelphia Union	A	1–4	L
23 Feb	New York Red Bulls	H	1–0	W
19 Oct	Philadelphia Union	A	2–1	W
05 Oct	Orlando City SC	H	1–3	L
02 Oct	New York City FC	A	2–3	L
28 Sep	Los Angeles FC	H	1–2	L

Season Stats

Philadelphia Union		FC Cincinnati
#6	Position	#8
50	Points	46
34	Played	34
14 / 8 / 12	W / D / L	12 / 10 / 12
66	Scored	67
52	Conceded	75
+14	GD	-8
1.47	PPG	1.35
41%	Win %	35%

Key Stats

41% Both Teams to Score
H2H (17 games)

47% Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history

24% Clean Sheets
Philadelphia Union this season

18% Clean Sheets
FC Cincinnati this season

Philadelphia Union are 6th (50 pts). FC Cincinnati are 8th (46 pts).

Goal Timing (This Season)

Philadelphia Union

0-15

4/6

16-30

6/7

31-45

8/7

46-60

12/2

61-75

17/5

76+

8/6

■ Scored ■ Conceded

FC Cincinnati

0-15

6/3

16-30

5/11

31-45

10/11

46-60

8/13

61-75

6/7

76+

17/9

■ Scored ■ Conceded

Top Scorers (This Season)

Philadelphia Union

Milan Iloski	19 G	2 A
Bruno Damiani	13 G	3 A
Cavan Sullivan	9 G	6 A

FC Cincinnati

Kevin Denkey	17 G	2 A
Evander	14 G	13 A
Tom Barlow	10 G	4 A
Pavel Bucha	6 G	3 A

Events

Match Events

0' In just a few seconds Subaru Park will turn into a battlefield for Philadelphia Union and FC Cincinnati.
5' Although teams showed high tempo form the start, they seem to slow down a bit. Both sides really need to catch a fire. Otherwise, we have another goalless match.
6' Tai Baribo puts Philadelphia Union on the lead.
11' Neither side is committing men forward. This has all the hallmarks of a tense, tactical contest.
16' Philadelphia Union are enjoying more possession but struggling to find a way through a disciplined FC Cincinnati backline.
21' The home supporters are growing impatient. Philadelphia Union must find a spark to ignite this game.
26' will be watching from the dugout nervously. His Philadelphia Union side need to improve if they are to claim all three points.
30' The Israel Tai Baribo breaks the deadlock on 30 minutes. 2-0!
35' While players are taking a pause, let’s have a look at their stats. The teams met 2 times this season with FC Cincinnati winning 50% of all matches.
40' The tempo has dropped considerably in the last few minutes. Pat Noonan will be considering his options from the bench.
45' Both teams are passing the ball around with high level of urgency. Philadelphia Union needs to do something about it to get closer to the goal.
50' Philadelphia Union have won 517 goals from 304 games. They will be desperate to add to that tally today.
52' A stunning finish from Tai Baribo — that came from absolutely nowhere!
57' Philadelphia Union currently sit in the Array table. A result here could be decisive in the race for the top positions.
58' GOAL! Evander fires home to make it 3-1!
58' Another substitution for FC Cincinnati to replace Yuya Kubo by Corey Baird on 58 minute.
59' Bret Halsey is replacing DeAndre Yedlin for the FC Cincinnati side.
64' We are waiting for someone to take the initiative. Who will be the first to commit to attack?
69' Fresh legs for Philadelphia Union! Bruno Damiani comes on to replace Mikkel Uhre.
70' FC Cincinnati make a change. Gilberto Flores trudges off to be replaced by Alvas Powell on 70 minutes.
75' FC Cincinnati come into this ranked in Array. They desperately need points to push themselves up the standings.
76' The referee does not hesitate — a card for Obinna Nwobodo on 76 minutes.
81' Philadelphia Union are happy to let the opposition have the ball in their own half. The trap is set.
82' Time for substitution for Philadelphia Union. Daniel Gazdag is replaced by Indiana Vassilev.
85' A tactical swap from FC Cincinnati — Kenji Mboma on, Lukas Engel off on 85 minutes.
89' A tactical swap from Philadelphia Union — Jesus Bueno on, Jovan Lukic off on 89 minutes.
The referee brings this contest to a close. Philadelphia Union take all three points.

Lineups

Philadelphia Union Lineups

Starting XI

Bench

Coach Bradley Carnell

FC Cincinnati Lineups

Starting XI

Bench

11
Corey Baird ↑ 58'
13
Evan Louro
2
Alvas Powell ↑ 70'
20
Pavel Bucha ↑ 58'
15
Bret Halsey ↑ 59'
35
Kenji Mboma ↑ 85'
19
Stefan Chirila
49
Peter Mangione

Coach Pat Noonan

H2H

H2H Top Scorers

Player	Goals
Bruno Damiani	5
Tai Baribo	5
Brandon Vazquez	4
Luciano Acosta	3
Paxten Aaronson	3
Alejandro Bedoya	2
Quinn Sullivan	2
Kevin Kelsy	1

Head to Head

Philadelphia Union Form

2025-03-02 Philadelphia Union 4–1 FC Cincinnati W 2025-02-23 Orlando City SC 2–4 Philadelphia Union W 2024-10-19 Philadelphia Union 1–2 FC Cincinnati L 2024-10-05 Columbus Crew SC 3–2 Philadelphia Union L 2024-10-02 Orlando City SC 2–1 Philadelphia Union L 2024-09-28 Philadelphia Union 1–1 Atlanta United FC D

FC Cincinnati Form

2025-03-02 Philadelphia Union 4–1 FC Cincinnati L 2025-02-23 FC Cincinnati 1–0 New York Red Bulls W 2024-10-19 Philadelphia Union 1–2 FC Cincinnati W 2024-10-05 FC Cincinnati 1–3 Orlando City SC L 2024-10-02 New York City FC 3–2 FC Cincinnati L 2024-09-28 FC Cincinnati 1–2 Los Angeles FC L

Predictions

Prediction accuracy

4 / 4

2.74 Philadelphia Union xG

Expected Goals

Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo

1.75 FC Cincinnati xG

I would bet for: Over 2.5 goals 81% + Both teams to score 77%

Match Result

✓ Correct

Philadelphia Union54% Draw21% FC Cincinnati25%

Actual: Philadelphia Union win

Both Teams to Score

✓ Correct

Yes77% 0% No23%

Avg goals/match: 4.49

Actual: Yes — both scored

Over / Under Goals

✓ O/U 2.5

Line	Over	Under
± 0.5	98%	2%
± 1.5	94%	6%
± 2.5	81%	19%
± 3.5	64%	36%
± 4.5	46%	54%

Double Chance

Philadelphia Union or Draw

75%

Draw or FC Cincinnati

46%

Philadelphia Union or FC Cincinnati

79%

Half-Time Result

✓ Correct

Philadelphia Union44% Draw34% FC Cincinnati22%

Actual: Philadelphia Union win at HT

Correct Score

✓ In top 12

2 – 1

7.3%

3 – 1

6.5%

2 – 2

6.2%

1 – 1

6.1%

3 – 2

5.6%

1 – 2

4.7%

4 – 1

Actual

2 – 0

4.4%

4 – 2

3.9%

3 – 0

3.9%

2 – 3

3.6%

3 – 3

3.3%

Asian Handicap — Philadelphia Union

Handicap	Philadelphia Union covers	Push	FC Cincinnati covers
-2.5	22%	—	78%
-2	22%	16%	61%
-1.5	39%	—	61%
-1	39%	19%	43%
-0.5	57%	—	43%
+0.5	76%	—	24%
+1	76%	12%	12%
+1.5	88%	—	12%
+2	88%	7%	5%
+2.5	95%	—	5%

Clean Sheet

Philadelphia Union keeps clean sheet

18% ✓

FC Cincinnati keeps clean sheet

7% ✓

Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.