Toronto FC vs New York Red Bulls, MLS 2024 REGULAR SEASON

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MLS · 2024

Toronto FC

1 – 4

Full Time

New York Red Bulls

Wed 2 Oct 2024 · 23:30 UTC BMO Field HT 45' · FT 45'

Y 23' Ryan Meara

Jonathan Osorio 30' Y

Y 38' Andres Reyes

Federico Bernardeschi 43' Y

Federico Bernardeschi 75' YR

Kosi Thompson 80' Y

Overview

Match Preview

Toronto FC vs New York Red Bulls — MLS at BMO Field.

Toronto FC 34 games · 39 pts (2026/26)
New York Red Bulls 34 games · 42 pts (2026/26)

Standings

#	Team	P	Pts
1	Nashville SC	34	77
2	Internacional CF Miami	34	60
3	New England Revolution	34	58
4	Chicago Fire FC	34	55
5	Charlotte FC	34	54
6	Philadelphia Union	34	50
7	Columbus Crew SC	34	47
8	FC Cincinnati	34	46
9	Orlando City SC	34	46
10	New York City FC	34	42
11	New York Red Bulls	34	42
12	Toronto FC	34	39
13	Atlanta United FC	34	33
14	D.C. United SC	34	33
15	Montreal Impact FC	34	26
16	Vancouver Whitecaps FC	34	64
17	FC Dallas	34	58
18	St. Louis City	34	54
19	San Jose Earthquakes	34	52
20	Houston Dynamo	34	51
21	Los Angeles FC	34	47
22	Portland Timbers	34	46
23	Seattle Sounders FC	34	46
24	Real Salt Lake	34	45
25	Minnesota United FC	34	44
26	Los Angeles Galaxy	34	44
27	Colorado Rapids SC	34	43
28	San Diego FC	34	38
29	Austin FC	34	34
30	Sporting Kansas City	34	26

Head-to-Head

Toronto FC 18 games · Avg 2.5 goals New York Red Bulls

Last 5 meetings

2024-10-02 Toronto FC 1–4 New York Red Bulls 2024-06-22 New York Red Bulls 3–0 Toronto FC 2023-10-07 New York Red Bulls 3–0 Toronto FC 2023-05-17 Toronto FC 0–0 New York Red Bulls 2022-06-18 New York Red Bulls 2–0 Toronto FC

Recent Form

Toronto FC

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
02 Oct	New York Red Bulls	H	1–4	L
29 Sep	Chicago Fire FC	A	1–1	D
22 Sep	Colorado Rapids SC	A	0–2	L
18 Sep	Columbus Crew SC	H	0–2	L
14 Sep	Austin FC	H	2–1	W
31 Aug	D.C. United SC	H	1–3	L

New York Red Bulls

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
02 Oct	Toronto FC	A	4–1	W
28 Sep	New York City FC	H	1–5	L
21 Sep	Atlanta United FC	H	2–2	D
15 Sep	Chicago Fire FC	A	1–2	L
07 Sep	Sporting Kansas City	H	1–1	D
31 Aug	Philadelphia Union	H	0–2	L

Season Stats

Toronto FC		New York Red Bulls
#12	Position	#11
39	Points	42
34	Played	34
9 / 12 / 13	W / D / L	12 / 6 / 16
52	Scored	48
67	Conceded	62
-15	GD	-14
1.15	PPG	1.24
26%	Win %	35%

Key Stats

50% Both Teams to Score
H2H (18 games)

39% Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history

12% Clean Sheets
Toronto FC this season

24% Clean Sheets
New York Red Bulls this season

Toronto FC are 12th (39 pts). New York Red Bulls are 11th (42 pts).

Goal Timing (This Season)

Toronto FC

0-15

1/3

16-30

3/10

31-45

6/9

46-60

5/12

61-75

9/7

76+

16/12

■ Scored ■ Conceded

New York Red Bulls

0-15

7/7

16-30

4/3

31-45

8/7

46-60

7/10

61-75

4/6

76+

8/9

■ Scored ■ Conceded

Top Scorers (This Season)

Toronto FC

Josh Sargent	10 G	4 A
Daniel Salloi	9 G	6 A

New York Red Bulls

Julian Hall	13 G	3 A
Jorge Ruvalcaba	8 G	1 A

Events

Match Events

0' The ball is rolling at BMO Field. Toronto FC are looking to make home advantage count against New York Red Bulls.
5' While there is no rush on the pitch, let’s have a look at some stats. Sean Nealis made 302 appearances and scored 4 goals. He is very likely to score a goal today.
10' The referee is likely to let players tackle, as he already missed some meaty challenges during opening seconds. He is still to establish what should not be done by the players and what is acceptable on the pitch. It’s going to be a tough game for Dennis Gjengaar suffering a number of foals already.
15' Supporters expect more eagerness from Lewis Morgan, as he is very good at scoring at BMO Field with 6 goals in the last 4 games.
20' It is a cagey affair so far. Toronto FC in their trying to find a way past New York Red Bulls's compact .
23' Poor challenge from Ryan Meara. The referee spots it immediately and shows the card.
27' What a moment for Emil Forsberg! That strike on 27 puts his side firmly in control.
30' The referee has no hesitation. Jonathan Osorio is booked for Toronto FC — card on 30.
35' Both keepers have barely been tested. Toronto FC and New York Red Bulls are cancelling each other out in the centre of the park.
38' Andres Reyes picks up a card and will need to be extremely careful for the remainder of this match.
43' Controversy at the stadium! Federico Bernardeschi argues furiously but the card stands.
46' Deybi Flores makes way for Alonso Coello Camarero at the 46 minute mark. A tactical switch from Toronto FC.
48' A stunning finish from John Tolkin — that came from absolutely nowhere!
53' Kevin Long is putting in a real shift tonight. He has covered more ground than anyone else for New York Red Bulls so far.
57' A tactical swap from New York Red Bulls — Sean Nealis on, Andres Reyes off on 57 minutes.
58' Toronto FC ring the changes. Deandre Kerr has done his job and it is now time for Prince-Osei Owusu to step up.
62' Ronald Donkor makes way for Felipe Carballo at the 62 minute mark. A tactical switch from New York Red Bulls.
66' Prince-Osei Owusu doubles the advantage! 1-2 and this game is slipping away from the opposition.
66' Kosi Thompson is ready to make an impact after coming on for Raoul Petretta at the 66 minute mark.
69' What a moment for Lewis Morgan! That strike on 69 puts his side firmly in control.
74' It looks like no one’s ball. Toronto FC is used to counterattacking playing. None of the sides are ready to take the lead.
75' Toronto FC player sees a card in front of him.
80' Kosi Thompson was booked on 80.
81' The whistle greets Dante Vanzeir as he departs to be replaced by Elias Manoel.
86' The referee has had an easy afternoon — neither side has been overly physical in the tackle.
88' Elias Manoel has been a constant threat and now delivers with a goal on 88 minutes.
Toronto FC will have plenty to reflect on. New York Red Bulls were simply the better side today.

Lineups

Toronto FC Lineups

Starting XI

5
Kevin Long
10
Federico Bernardeschi
11
Derrick Etienne
21
Jonathan Osorio
28
Raoul Petretta ↓ Kosi Thompson 66'
1
Sean Johnson
27
Shane O'Neill
22
Richie Laryea
29
Deandre Kerr ↓ Prince-Osei Owusu 58'
20
Deybi Flores ↓ Alonso Coello Camarero 46'
16
Tyrese Spicer ↓ Matthew Longstaff 46'

Bench

Coach John Herdman

New York Red Bulls Lineups

Starting XI

Bench

18
Ryan Meara
15
Sean Nealis ↑ 57'
17
Cameron Harper ↑ 62'
11
Elias Manoel ↑ 81'
22
Serge Ngoma
20
Felipe Carballo ↑ 62'
16
Julian Hall
2
Dennis Gjengaar ↑ 81'
23
Aidan O'Connor

Coach Sandro Schwarz

H2H

H2H Top Scorers

Player	Goals
Lewis Morgan	5
Luquinhas	3
Tom Barlow	3
Emil Forsberg	3
Pozuelo	2
Kemar Lawrence	2
Caden Clark	2
Elias Manoel	2

Head to Head

Toronto FC Form

2024-10-02 Toronto FC 1–4 New York Red Bulls L 2024-09-29 Chicago Fire FC 1–1 Toronto FC D 2024-09-22 Colorado Rapids SC 2–0 Toronto FC L 2024-09-18 Toronto FC 0–2 Columbus Crew SC L 2024-09-14 Toronto FC 2–1 Austin FC W 2024-08-31 Toronto FC 1–3 D.C. United SC L

New York Red Bulls Form

2024-10-02 Toronto FC 1–4 New York Red Bulls W 2024-09-28 New York Red Bulls 1–5 New York City FC L 2024-09-21 New York Red Bulls 2–2 Atlanta United FC D 2024-09-15 Chicago Fire FC 2–1 New York Red Bulls L 2024-09-07 New York Red Bulls 1–1 Sporting Kansas City D 2024-08-31 New York Red Bulls 0–2 Philadelphia Union L

Predictions

Prediction accuracy

4 / 4

1.41 Toronto FC xG

Expected Goals

Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo

2.19 New York Red Bulls xG

I would bet for: Over 2.5 goals 68% + Both teams to score 67%

Match Result

✓ Correct

Toronto FC26% Draw24% New York Red Bulls50%

Actual: New York Red Bulls win

Both Teams to Score

✓ Correct

Yes67% 0% No33%

Avg goals/match: 3.6

Actual: Yes — both scored

Over / Under Goals

✓ O/U 2.5

Line	Over	Under
± 0.5	96%	4%
± 1.5	87%	13%
± 2.5	68%	32%
± 3.5	48%	52%
± 4.5	29%	71%

Double Chance

Toronto FC or Draw

50%

Draw or New York Red Bulls

74%

Toronto FC or New York Red Bulls

76%

Half-Time Result

✓ Correct

Toronto FC20% Draw39% New York Red Bulls41%

Actual: New York Red Bulls win at HT

Correct Score

✓ In top 12

1 – 1

9.3%

1 – 2

8.9%

0 – 2

6.6%

1 – 3

6.5%

2 – 2

6.2%

2 – 1

5.8%

0 – 1

5.5%

0 – 3

4.7%

2 – 3

4.6%

0 – 0

4.1%

1 – 4

Actual

1 – 0

3.3%

Asian Handicap — Toronto FC

Handicap	Toronto FC covers	Push	New York Red Bulls covers
-2.5	4%	—	96%
-2	4%	7%	89%
-1.5	11%	—	89%
-1	11%	13%	76%
-0.5	24%	—	76%
+0.5	46%	—	54%
+1	46%	21%	34%
+1.5	66%	—	34%
+2	66%	16%	17%
+2.5	83%	—	17%

Clean Sheet

Toronto FC keeps clean sheet

12% ✓

New York Red Bulls keeps clean sheet

25% ✓

Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.