Toronto FC vs FC Cincinnati, MLS 2023 REGULAR SEASON

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MLS · 2023

Toronto FC

2 – 3

Full Time

FC Cincinnati

Sat 30 Sep 2023 · 23:30 UTC BMO Field HT 45' · FT 45'

0–1 28' Brandon Vazquez

0–2 35' Brandon Vazquez

Jonathan Osorio 39' 1–2

Jonathan Osorio 44' 2–2

2–3 72' Aaron Boupendza

Themi Antonoglou 74' Y

Prince-Osei Owusu 86' Y

Overview

Match Preview

Toronto FC vs FC Cincinnati — MLS at BMO Field.

Toronto FC 14 games · 14 pts (2026/26)
FC Cincinnati 15 games · 20 pts (2026/26)

Standings

#	Team	P	Pts
1	Nashville SC	14	33
2	Internacional CF Miami	15	31
3	Chicago Fire FC	14	26
4	New England Revolution	14	25
5	New York Red Bulls	15	22
6	Charlotte FC	15	21
7	FC Cincinnati	15	20
8	New York City FC	15	19
9	D.C. United SC	15	18
10	Columbus Crew SC	15	16
11	Toronto FC	14	14
12	Montreal Impact FC	14	14
13	Orlando City SC	15	14
14	Atlanta United FC	14	11
15	Philadelphia Union	15	7
16	Vancouver Whitecaps FC	14	32
17	San Jose Earthquakes	15	32
18	Real Salt Lake	14	26
19	FC Dallas	15	25
20	Los Angeles FC	15	24
21	Seattle Sounders FC	13	24
22	Houston Dynamo	14	22
23	Minnesota United FC	15	22
24	Los Angeles Galaxy	15	20
25	San Diego FC	15	17
26	Colorado Rapids SC	15	16
27	St. Louis City	14	16
28	Portland Timbers	14	14
29	Austin FC	15	14
30	Sporting Kansas City	14	11

Head-to-Head

Toronto FC 16 games · Avg 2.8 goals FC Cincinnati

Last 5 meetings

2023-09-30 Toronto FC 2–3 FC Cincinnati 2023-06-21 FC Cincinnati 3–0 Toronto FC 2022-05-04 FC Cincinnati 2–0 Toronto FC 2022-04-30 Toronto FC 1–2 FC Cincinnati 2021-09-29 Toronto FC 3–2 FC Cincinnati

Recent Form

Toronto FC

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
30 Sep	FC Cincinnati	H	2–3	L
24 Sep	New York City FC	A	0–3	L
20 Sep	Internacional CF Miami	A	0–4	L
16 Sep	Vancouver Whitecaps FC	H	1–2	L
30 Aug	Philadelphia Union	H	3–1	W
26 Aug	Columbus Crew SC	A	0–2	L

FC Cincinnati

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
30 Sep	Toronto FC	A	3–2	W
23 Sep	Charlotte FC	H	3–0	W
20 Sep	Montreal Impact FC	A	1–1	D
16 Sep	Philadelphia Union	A	2–2	D
02 Sep	Orlando City SC	H	0–1	L
30 Aug	Atlanta United FC	A	2–1	W

Season Stats

Toronto FC		FC Cincinnati
#11	Position	#7
14	Points	20
14	Played	15
3 / 5 / 6	W / D / L	5 / 5 / 5
22	Scored	36
29	Conceded	37
-7	GD	-1
1.00	PPG	1.33
21%	Win %	33%

Key Stats

44% Both Teams to Score
H2H (16 games)

44% Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history

7% Clean Sheets
Toronto FC this season

27% Clean Sheets
FC Cincinnati this season

Toronto FC are 11th (14 pts). FC Cincinnati are 7th (20 pts).

Goal Timing (This Season)

Toronto FC

0-15

1/1

16-30

1/3

31-45

1/3

46-60

2/5

61-75

4/4

76+

5/5

■ Scored ■ Conceded

FC Cincinnati

0-15

1/1

16-30

2/5

31-45

7/3

46-60

3/4

61-75

2/1

76+

8/3

■ Scored ■ Conceded

Events

Match Events

0' The game is set. Toronto FC kicks off things out of here…
5' Michael Bradley is a natural and has been asked to do a very specific job for Toronto FC tonight.
9' Hugo Mbongue has so much to prove this time. He replaces Deandre Kerr on 9 minute.
14' Players seem to put ease on their energy level Spectators hardly appreciate such approach. Teams need to speed up the tempo.
19' It looks like no one’s ball. FC Cincinnati is used to counterattacking playing. None of the sides are ready to take the lead.
24' Cristian Gutierrez needs to be pretty careful with his discipline considering 0 Yellow cards this season.
28' What composure from Brandon Vazquez! The USA international strokes it home. 0-1.
33' With 0 assists to his name this season, Roman Celentano is clearly more than just a goal scorer for FC Cincinnati.
35' Brilliant from the ! Brandon Vazquez makes it 0-2 with a superb finish on 35.
39' with the perfectly-timed delivery and Jonathan Osorio makes no mistake. 1-2!
44' What composure from Jonathan Osorio! The Canada international strokes it home. 2-2.
49' Toronto FC are enjoying more possession but struggling to find a way through a disciplined FC Cincinnati backline.
54' The home supporters are growing impatient. Toronto FC must find a spark to ignite this game.
59' USA international Ian Murphy has been a key figure this campaign — 0 goals and 0 assists in the Array this season.
60' Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty gets the nod from Toronto FC. He replaces Latif Blessing and will look to change the dynamic.
65' Dom Badji has certainly something to prove this evening. He made 15 appearances with only 0 goals this season.
69' Franco Ibarra is replacing Alonso Coello Camarero for the Toronto FC side.
72' Against the run of play, Aaron Boupendza has scored! This game has turned on its head.
74' Themi Antonoglou picks up a card and will need to be extremely careful for the remainder of this match.
77' A tactical swap from Toronto FC — Prince-Osei Owusu on, Hugo Mbongue off on 77 minutes.
82' The supporters are chanting for Dom Badji. He replaces Aaron Boupendza on 82 minute.
85' Fresh legs for FC Cincinnati! Ray Gaddis comes on to replace Alvaro Barreal.
86' Toronto FC receives a card for a hard tackle on 86.
89' The whistle greets Junior Moreno as he departs to be replaced by Yuya Kubo.
2-3 the final result. Toronto FC will be bitterly disappointed.

Lineups

Toronto FC Lineups

3-4-3

Starting XI

10
Federico Bernardeschi
4
Michael Bradley ↓ Victor Vazquez 77'
21
Jonathan Osorio
11
Latif Blessing ↓ Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty 60'
17
Sigurd Rosted
6
Aime Mabika
29
Deandre Kerr ↓ Hugo Mbongue 9'
90
Luka Gavran
19
Kobe Franklin
81
Themi Antonoglou ↓ Cristian Gutierrez 77'
52
Alonso Coello Camarero ↓ Franco Ibarra 69'

Bench

Coach Jon Conway

FC Cincinnati Lineups

3-4-1-2

Starting XI

Bench

Coach Pat Noonan

H2H

H2H Top Scorers

Player	Goals
Luciano Acosta	5
Allan Cruz	2
Brandon Vazquez	2
Luca Orellano	2
Nick DeLeon	2
Emmanuel Ledesma	2
Kevin Denkey	2
Ian Murphy	2

Head to Head

Toronto FC Form

2023-09-30 Toronto FC 2–3 FC Cincinnati L 2023-09-24 New York City FC 3–0 Toronto FC L 2023-09-20 Internacional CF Miami 4–0 Toronto FC L 2023-09-16 Toronto FC 1–2 Vancouver Whitecaps FC L 2023-08-30 Toronto FC 3–1 Philadelphia Union W 2023-08-26 Columbus Crew SC 2–0 Toronto FC L

FC Cincinnati Form

2023-09-30 Toronto FC 2–3 FC Cincinnati W 2023-09-23 FC Cincinnati 3–0 Charlotte FC W 2023-09-20 Montreal Impact FC 1–1 FC Cincinnati D 2023-09-16 Philadelphia Union 2–2 FC Cincinnati D 2023-09-02 FC Cincinnati 0–1 Orlando City SC L 2023-08-30 Atlanta United FC 1–2 FC Cincinnati W

Predictions

Prediction accuracy

3 / 4

2.16 Toronto FC xG

Expected Goals

Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo

2.61 FC Cincinnati xG

I would bet for: Over 2.5 goals 84% + Both teams to score 81%

Match Result

✓ Correct

Toronto FC31% Draw21% FC Cincinnati48%

Actual: FC Cincinnati win

Both Teams to Score

✓ Correct

Yes81% 0% No19%

Avg goals/match: 4.77

Actual: Yes — both scored

Over / Under Goals

✓ O/U 2.5

Line	Over	Under
± 0.5	98%	2%
± 1.5	95%	5%
± 2.5	84%	16%
± 3.5	69%	31%
± 4.5	51%	49%

Double Chance

Toronto FC or Draw

52%

Draw or FC Cincinnati

69%

Toronto FC or FC Cincinnati

79%

Half-Time Result

✗ Wrong

Toronto FC28% Draw34% FC Cincinnati38%

Actual: Draw at HT

Correct Score

✓ In top 12

2 – 2

6.5%

1 – 2

6.2%

2 – 3

Actual

1 – 1

5.5%

1 – 3

5.3%

2 – 1

5.2%

3 – 2

4.6%

3 – 3

2 – 4

3.7%

3 – 1

3.7%

1 – 4

3.5%

0 – 2

3.1%

Asian Handicap — Toronto FC

Handicap	Toronto FC covers	Push	FC Cincinnati covers
-2.5	9%	—	91%
-2	9%	10%	82%
-1.5	18%	—	82%
-1	18%	14%	67%
-0.5	33%	—	67%
+0.5	52%	—	48%
+1	52%	17%	30%
+1.5	70%	—	30%
+2	70%	14%	17%
+2.5	83%	—	17%

Clean Sheet

Toronto FC keeps clean sheet

8% ✓

FC Cincinnati keeps clean sheet

12% ✓

Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.