Toronto FC vs FC Cincinnati, MLS 2023 REGULAR SEASON

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MLS · 2023

Toronto FC

2 – 3

Full Time

FC Cincinnati

Sat 30 Sep 2023 · 23:30 UTC BMO Field HT 45' · FT 45'

0–1 28' Brandon Vazquez

0–2 35' Brandon Vazquez

Jonathan Osorio 39' 1–2

Jonathan Osorio 44' 2–2

2–3 72' Aaron Boupendza

Themi Antonoglou 74' Y

Prince-Osei Owusu 86' Y

Overview

Match Preview

Toronto FC vs FC Cincinnati — MLS at BMO Field.

Toronto FC 18 games · 17 pts (2026/26)
FC Cincinnati 18 games · 26 pts (2026/26)

Standings

#	Team	P	Pts
1	Nashville SC	18	40
2	Internacional CF Miami	18	38
3	New England Revolution	18	30
4	Chicago Fire FC	17	29
5	New York City FC	18	26
6	FC Cincinnati	18	26
7	Charlotte FC	18	25
8	New York Red Bulls	18	25
9	D.C. United SC	18	23
10	Columbus Crew SC	18	20
11	Orlando City SC	18	20
12	Toronto FC	18	17
13	Philadelphia Union	18	16
14	Montreal Impact FC	18	16
15	Atlanta United FC	18	12
16	Vancouver Whitecaps FC	17	34
17	Los Angeles FC	19	34
18	San Jose Earthquakes	18	33
19	Houston Dynamo	18	32
20	FC Dallas	18	27
21	Real Salt Lake	17	27
22	St. Louis City	18	26
23	Portland Timbers	18	24
24	Seattle Sounders FC	17	24
25	Minnesota United FC	18	24
26	Colorado Rapids SC	18	22
27	Los Angeles Galaxy	19	22
28	San Diego FC	18	21
29	Austin FC	18	17
30	Sporting Kansas City	18	14

Head-to-Head

Toronto FC 16 games · Avg 2.8 goals FC Cincinnati

Last 5 meetings

2023-09-30 Toronto FC 2–3 FC Cincinnati 2023-06-21 FC Cincinnati 3–0 Toronto FC 2022-05-04 FC Cincinnati 2–0 Toronto FC 2022-04-30 Toronto FC 1–2 FC Cincinnati 2021-09-29 Toronto FC 3–2 FC Cincinnati

Recent Form

Toronto FC

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
30 Sep	FC Cincinnati	H	2–3	L
24 Sep	New York City FC	A	0–3	L
20 Sep	Internacional CF Miami	A	0–4	L
16 Sep	Vancouver Whitecaps FC	H	1–2	L
30 Aug	Philadelphia Union	H	3–1	W
26 Aug	Columbus Crew SC	A	0–2	L

FC Cincinnati

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
30 Sep	Toronto FC	A	3–2	W
23 Sep	Charlotte FC	H	3–0	W
20 Sep	Montreal Impact FC	A	1–1	D
16 Sep	Philadelphia Union	A	2–2	D
02 Sep	Orlando City SC	H	0–1	L
30 Aug	Atlanta United FC	A	2–1	W

Season Stats

Toronto FC		FC Cincinnati
#12	Position	#6
17	Points	26
18	Played	18
3 / 8 / 7	W / D / L	7 / 5 / 6
24	Scored	45
32	Conceded	44
-8	GD	+1
0.94	PPG	1.44
17%	Win %	39%

Key Stats

44% Both Teams to Score
H2H (16 games)

44% Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history

16% Clean Sheets
Toronto FC this season

21% Clean Sheets
FC Cincinnati this season

Toronto FC are 12th (17 pts). FC Cincinnati are 6th (26 pts).

Goal Timing (This Season)

Toronto FC

0-15

1/2

16-30

1/3

31-45

4/3

46-60

2/5

61-75

4/4

76+

6/7

■ Scored ■ Conceded

FC Cincinnati

0-15

3/2

16-30

4/7

31-45

9/5

46-60

4/7

61-75

2/1

76+

11/3

■ Scored ■ Conceded

Top Scorers (This Season)

FC Cincinnati

Evander	10 G	4 A
Kevin Denkey	10 G	1 A
Tom Barlow	5 G

Events

Match Events

0' Here we go! The referee blows the whistle and Toronto FC launch into their encounter with FC Cincinnati.
5' FC Cincinnati fans have not had much to celebrate tonight. Their side is struggling to get forward.
9' A change in the Toronto FC ranks — Deandre Kerr exits the field as Hugo Mbongue enters on 9.
14' While there is no rush on the pitch, let’s have a look at some stats. Santiago Arias made 523 appearances and scored 4 goals. He is very likely to score a goal today.
19' Spectators do not have much to choose from both teams. The sides had several scoring chances but they still need a bit more than just a sight of a goal.
24' Yuya Kubo is putting in a real shift tonight. He has covered more ground than anyone else for FC Cincinnati so far.
28' Brilliant from the ! Brandon Vazquez makes it 0-1 with a superb finish on 28.
33' Matchday of the Array and both teams know exactly what is at stake tonight.
35' A stunning finish from Brandon Vazquez — that came from absolutely nowhere!
39' What a strike from Jonathan Osorio! The score is 1-2.
44' Clinical. Composed. Brilliant. Jonathan Osorio makes it 2-2.
49' FC Cincinnati are keeping things exceptionally tight at the back. It will take something special to break them down.
54' will be watching from the dugout nervously. His Toronto FC side need to improve if they are to claim all three points.
59' Toronto FC seems to be on a short break. The game is mainly concentrated in the center. It’s high time they got back to action. Otherwise, it looks like a goalless game.
60' Fresh legs for Toronto FC! Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty comes on to replace Latif Blessing.
65' The tempo has dropped considerably in the last few minutes. Pat Noonan will be considering his options from the bench.
69' A tactical swap from Toronto FC — Franco Ibarra on, Alonso Coello Camarero off on 69 minutes.
72' Aaron Boupendza makes no mistake. The score reads 2-3 and FC Cincinnati are in front.
74' A meaty challenge results in booking for Themi Antonoglou on 74.
77' A tactical swap from Toronto FC — Prince-Osei Owusu on, Hugo Mbongue off on 77 minutes.
82' Dom Badji is replacing Aaron Boupendza for the FC Cincinnati side.
85' The whistle greets Alvaro Barreal as he departs to be replaced by Ray Gaddis.
86' A moment of madness from Prince-Osei Owusu on 86 minutes earns him a card. Toronto FC will be frustrated.
89' The crowd applauds Junior Moreno as he leaves the pitch. Yuya Kubo steps in for FC Cincinnati.
What a match! Full time at {STADIUM} — Toronto FC 2-3 FC Cincinnati.

Lineups

Toronto FC Lineups

3-4-3

Starting XI

10
Federico Bernardeschi
4
Michael Bradley ↓ Victor Vazquez 77'
21
Jonathan Osorio
11
Latif Blessing ↓ Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty 60'
17
Sigurd Rosted
6
Aime Mabika
29
Deandre Kerr ↓ Hugo Mbongue 9'
90
Luka Gavran
19
Kobe Franklin
81
Themi Antonoglou ↓ Cristian Gutierrez 77'
52
Alonso Coello Camarero ↓ Franco Ibarra 69'

Bench

Coach Jon Conway

FC Cincinnati Lineups

3-4-1-2

Starting XI

Bench

Coach Pat Noonan

H2H

H2H Top Scorers

Player	Goals
Luciano Acosta	5
Kevin Denkey	2
Ian Murphy	2
Marky Delgado	2
Jonathan Osorio	2
Patrick Mullins	2
Allan Cruz	2
Brandon Vazquez	2

Head to Head

Toronto FC Form

2023-09-30 Toronto FC 2–3 FC Cincinnati L 2023-09-24 New York City FC 3–0 Toronto FC L 2023-09-20 Internacional CF Miami 4–0 Toronto FC L 2023-09-16 Toronto FC 1–2 Vancouver Whitecaps FC L 2023-08-30 Toronto FC 3–1 Philadelphia Union W 2023-08-26 Columbus Crew SC 2–0 Toronto FC L

FC Cincinnati Form

2023-09-30 Toronto FC 2–3 FC Cincinnati W 2023-09-23 FC Cincinnati 3–0 Charlotte FC W 2023-09-20 Montreal Impact FC 1–1 FC Cincinnati D 2023-09-16 Philadelphia Union 2–2 FC Cincinnati D 2023-09-02 FC Cincinnati 0–1 Orlando City SC L 2023-08-30 Atlanta United FC 1–2 FC Cincinnati W

Predictions

Prediction accuracy

3 / 4

1.97 Toronto FC xG

Expected Goals

Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo

2.49 FC Cincinnati xG

I would bet for: Over 2.5 goals 81% + Both teams to score 78%

Match Result

✓ Correct

Toronto FC30% Draw22% FC Cincinnati48%

Actual: FC Cincinnati win

Both Teams to Score

✓ Correct

Yes78% 0% No22%

Avg goals/match: 4.46

Actual: Yes — both scored

Over / Under Goals

✓ O/U 2.5

Line	Over	Under
± 0.5	98%	2%
± 1.5	93%	7%
± 2.5	81%	19%
± 3.5	64%	36%
± 4.5	45%	55%

Double Chance

Toronto FC or Draw

52%

Draw or FC Cincinnati

70%

Toronto FC or FC Cincinnati

78%

Half-Time Result

✗ Wrong

Toronto FC26% Draw35% FC Cincinnati39%

Actual: Draw at HT

Correct Score

✓ In top 12

1 – 2

6.9%

2 – 2

6.7%

1 – 1

6.4%

1 – 3

5.7%

2 – 1

5.5%

2 – 3

Actual

3 – 2

4.4%

0 – 2

3.7%

3 – 3

3.6%

3 – 1

3.6%

1 – 4

3.5%

2 – 4

3.5%

Asian Handicap — Toronto FC

Handicap	Toronto FC covers	Push	FC Cincinnati covers
-2.5	7%	—	93%
-2	7%	9%	84%
-1.5	16%	—	84%
-1	16%	14%	69%
-0.5	31%	—	69%
+0.5	51%	—	49%
+1	51%	18%	31%
+1.5	69%	—	31%
+2	69%	14%	17%
+2.5	83%	—	17%

Clean Sheet

Toronto FC keeps clean sheet

9% ✓

FC Cincinnati keeps clean sheet

15% ✓

Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.