Toronto FC vs FC Cincinnati, MLS 2023 REGULAR SEASON

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MLS · 2023

Toronto FC

2 – 3

Full Time

FC Cincinnati

Sat 30 Sep 2023 · 23:30 UTC BMO Field HT 45' · FT 45'

0–1 28' Brandon Vazquez

0–2 35' Brandon Vazquez

Jonathan Osorio 39' 1–2

Jonathan Osorio 44' 2–2

2–3 72' Aaron Boupendza

Themi Antonoglou 74' Y

Prince-Osei Owusu 86' Y

Overview

Match Preview

Toronto FC vs FC Cincinnati — MLS at BMO Field.

Toronto FC 27 games · 29 pts (2026/26)
FC Cincinnati 26 games · 33 pts (2026/26)

Standings

#	Team	P	Pts
1	Nashville SC	27	60
2	Internacional CF Miami	27	46
3	New England Revolution	27	46
4	Charlotte FC	27	43
5	Chicago Fire FC	26	42
6	Philadelphia Union	27	39
7	Orlando City SC	27	34
8	New York City FC	27	33
9	FC Cincinnati	26	33
10	New York Red Bulls	26	33
11	D.C. United SC	26	30
12	Columbus Crew SC	27	29
13	Toronto FC	27	29
14	Atlanta United FC	27	27
15	Montreal Impact FC	27	24
16	Vancouver Whitecaps FC	26	50
17	FC Dallas	27	47
18	San Jose Earthquakes	27	45
19	St. Louis City	26	44
20	Houston Dynamo	27	44
21	Los Angeles FC	28	41
22	Colorado Rapids SC	27	36
23	Los Angeles Galaxy	28	36
24	Seattle Sounders FC	26	35
25	San Diego FC	27	32
26	Portland Timbers	27	32
27	Real Salt Lake	27	32
28	Austin FC	27	31
29	Minnesota United FC	27	29
30	Sporting Kansas City	26	21

Head-to-Head

Toronto FC 16 games · Avg 2.8 goals FC Cincinnati

Last 5 meetings

2023-09-30 Toronto FC 2–3 FC Cincinnati 2023-06-21 FC Cincinnati 3–0 Toronto FC 2022-05-04 FC Cincinnati 2–0 Toronto FC 2022-04-30 Toronto FC 1–2 FC Cincinnati 2021-09-29 Toronto FC 3–2 FC Cincinnati

Recent Form

Toronto FC

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
30 Sep	FC Cincinnati	H	2–3	L
24 Sep	New York City FC	A	0–3	L
20 Sep	Internacional CF Miami	A	0–4	L
16 Sep	Vancouver Whitecaps FC	H	1–2	L
30 Aug	Philadelphia Union	H	3–1	W
26 Aug	Columbus Crew SC	A	0–2	L

FC Cincinnati

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
30 Sep	Toronto FC	A	3–2	W
23 Sep	Charlotte FC	H	3–0	W
20 Sep	Montreal Impact FC	A	1–1	D
16 Sep	Philadelphia Union	A	2–2	D
02 Sep	Orlando City SC	H	0–1	L
30 Aug	Atlanta United FC	A	2–1	W

Season Stats

Toronto FC		FC Cincinnati
#13	Position	#9
29	Points	33
27	Played	26
6 / 11 / 10	W / D / L	8 / 9 / 9
39	Scored	55
51	Conceded	64
-12	GD	-9
1.07	PPG	1.27
22%	Win %	31%

Key Stats

44% Both Teams to Score
H2H (16 games)

44% Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history

11% Clean Sheets
Toronto FC this season

15% Clean Sheets
FC Cincinnati this season

Toronto FC are 13th (29 pts). FC Cincinnati are 9th (33 pts).

Goal Timing (This Season)

Toronto FC

0-15

1/3

16-30

2/5

31-45

5/6

46-60

4/7

61-75

7/6

76+

9/10

■ Scored ■ Conceded

FC Cincinnati

0-15

4/3

16-30

5/9

31-45

9/9

46-60

5/11

61-75

4/4

76+

13/7

■ Scored ■ Conceded

Top Scorers (This Season)

Toronto FC

Daniel Salloi	7 G	5 A
Josh Sargent	7 G	2 A

FC Cincinnati

Kevin Denkey	14 G	1 A
Evander	13 G	7 A
Tom Barlow	7 G	2 A
Pavel Bucha	6 G	3 A

Events

Match Events

0' Packed stands, loud atmosphere — Toronto FC and FC Cincinnati get this one started.
5' It is a cagey affair so far. Toronto FC in their 3-4-3 trying to find a way past FC Cincinnati's compact 3-4-1-2.
9' Deandre Kerr makes way for Hugo Mbongue at the 9 minute mark. A tactical switch from Toronto FC.
14' A quiet spell here at BMO Field. FC Cincinnati seem content sitting deep and soaking up pressure.
19' Luka Gavran has been relatively quiet despite scoring 1 goals in his last 289 appearances.
24' Yerson Mosquera is a natural centre-back and has been asked to do a very specific job for Toronto FC tonight.
28' GOAL! Brandon Vazquez scores on 28. Assisted by Yerson Mosquera
33' Not even hints on scoring a goal over the last 33 minutes.
35' Brandon Vazquez has been a constant threat and now delivers with a goal on 35 minutes.
39' The Canada Jonathan Osorio breaks the deadlock on 39 minutes. 1-2!
44' GOAL! Jonathan Osorio fires home to make it 2-2!
49' Toronto FC are keeping things exceptionally tight at the back. It will take something special to break them down.
54' While there is no rush on the pitch, let’s have a look at some stats. Yuya Kubo made 300 appearances and scored 18 goals. He is very likely to score a goal today.
59' FC Cincinnati come into this ranked in Array. They desperately need points to push themselves up the standings.
60' A tactical swap from Toronto FC — Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty on, Latif Blessing off on 60 minutes.
65' Cristian Gutierrez, a Canada , has 0 bookings this season and will need to keep his discipline tonight.
69' Another substitution for Toronto FC to replace Alonso Coello Camarero by Franco Ibarra on 69 minute.
72' Aaron Boupendza adds to his 0 season tally! FC Cincinnati lead 2-3 — and this changes everything.
74' Themi Antonoglou catches the referee's attention in entirely the wrong way. card on 74.
77' Another substitution for Toronto FC to replace Hugo Mbongue by Prince-Osei Owusu on 77 minute.
82' It is a substitution in FC Cincinnati team. Aaron Boupendza is replaced by Dom Badji on 82 minute.
85' A change in the FC Cincinnati ranks — Alvaro Barreal exits the field as Ray Gaddis enters on 85.
86' Toronto FC receives a card for a hard tackle on 86.
89' Yuya Kubo gets the nod from FC Cincinnati. He replaces Junior Moreno and will look to change the dynamic.
Both sets of fans can go home satisfied — a 2-3 draw is a fair result on the day.

Lineups

Toronto FC Lineups

3-4-3

Starting XI

10
Federico Bernardeschi
4
Michael Bradley ↓ Victor Vazquez 77'
21
Jonathan Osorio
11
Latif Blessing ↓ Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty 60'
17
Sigurd Rosted
6
Aime Mabika
29
Deandre Kerr ↓ Hugo Mbongue 9'
90
Luka Gavran
19
Kobe Franklin
81
Themi Antonoglou ↓ Cristian Gutierrez 77'
52
Alonso Coello Camarero ↓ Franco Ibarra 69'

Bench

Coach Jon Conway

FC Cincinnati Lineups

3-4-1-2

Starting XI

Bench

Coach Pat Noonan

H2H

H2H Top Scorers

Player	Goals
Luciano Acosta	5
Ian Murphy	2
Marky Delgado	2
Jonathan Osorio	2
Patrick Mullins	2
Allan Cruz	2
Brandon Vazquez	2
Luca Orellano	2

Head to Head

Toronto FC Form

2023-09-30 Toronto FC 2–3 FC Cincinnati L 2023-09-24 New York City FC 3–0 Toronto FC L 2023-09-20 Internacional CF Miami 4–0 Toronto FC L 2023-09-16 Toronto FC 1–2 Vancouver Whitecaps FC L 2023-08-30 Toronto FC 3–1 Philadelphia Union W 2023-08-26 Columbus Crew SC 2–0 Toronto FC L

FC Cincinnati Form

2023-09-30 Toronto FC 2–3 FC Cincinnati W 2023-09-23 FC Cincinnati 3–0 Charlotte FC W 2023-09-20 Montreal Impact FC 1–1 FC Cincinnati D 2023-09-16 Philadelphia Union 2–2 FC Cincinnati D 2023-09-02 FC Cincinnati 0–1 Orlando City SC L 2023-08-30 Atlanta United FC 1–2 FC Cincinnati W

Predictions

Prediction accuracy

4 / 4

2.08 Toronto FC xG

Expected Goals

Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo

2.36 FC Cincinnati xG

I would bet for: Over 2.5 goals 81% + Both teams to score 78%

Match Result

✓ Correct

Toronto FC33% Draw22% FC Cincinnati45%

Actual: FC Cincinnati win

Both Teams to Score

✓ Correct

Yes78% 0% No22%

Avg goals/match: 4.44

Actual: Yes — both scored

Over / Under Goals

✓ O/U 2.5

Line	Over	Under
± 0.5	98%	2%
± 1.5	93%	7%
± 2.5	81%	19%
± 3.5	63%	37%
± 4.5	45%	55%

Double Chance

Toronto FC or Draw

55%

Draw or FC Cincinnati

67%

Toronto FC or FC Cincinnati

78%

Half-Time Result

✓ Correct

Toronto FC29% Draw36% FC Cincinnati35%

Actual: Draw at HT

Correct Score

✓ In top 12

2 – 2

6.8%

1 – 2

6.7%

1 – 1

6.6%

2 – 1

2 – 3

Actual

1 – 3

5.2%

3 – 2

4.7%

3 – 1

4.1%

3 – 3

3.7%

0 – 2

3.5%

2 – 4

3.2%

1 – 4

3.1%

Asian Handicap — Toronto FC

Handicap	Toronto FC covers	Push	FC Cincinnati covers
-2.5	9%	—	91%
-2	9%	10%	81%
-1.5	19%	—	81%
-1	19%	15%	65%
-0.5	35%	—	65%
+0.5	55%	—	45%
+1	55%	18%	27%
+1.5	73%	—	27%
+2	73%	13%	14%
+2.5	86%	—	14%

Clean Sheet

Toronto FC keeps clean sheet

10% ✓

FC Cincinnati keeps clean sheet

13% ✓

Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.