Toronto FC vs FC Cincinnati, MLS 2024 REGULAR SEASON

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MLS · 2024

Toronto FC

3 – 4

Full Time

FC Cincinnati

Sat 25 May 2024 · 23:30 UTC BMO Field HT 45' · FT 45'

Deybi Flores 33' Y

Y 60' Luca Orellano

Matthew Longstaff 60' Y

Kevin Long 78' Y

Y 84' Miles Robinson

Prince-Osei Owusu 90' Y

Y 90' Kevin Kelsy

Overview

Match Preview

Toronto FC vs FC Cincinnati — MLS at BMO Field.

Toronto FC 34 games · 39 pts (2026/26)
FC Cincinnati 34 games · 46 pts (2026/26)

Standings

#	Team	P	Pts
1	Nashville SC	34	77
2	Internacional CF Miami	34	60
3	New England Revolution	34	58
4	Chicago Fire FC	34	55
5	Charlotte FC	34	54
6	Philadelphia Union	34	50
7	Columbus Crew SC	34	47
8	FC Cincinnati	34	46
9	Orlando City SC	34	46
10	New York City FC	34	42
11	New York Red Bulls	34	42
12	Toronto FC	34	39
13	Atlanta United FC	34	33
14	D.C. United SC	34	33
15	Montreal Impact FC	34	26
16	Vancouver Whitecaps FC	34	64
17	FC Dallas	34	58
18	St. Louis City	34	54
19	San Jose Earthquakes	34	52
20	Houston Dynamo	34	51
21	Los Angeles FC	34	47
22	Portland Timbers	34	46
23	Seattle Sounders FC	34	46
24	Real Salt Lake	34	45
25	Minnesota United FC	34	44
26	Los Angeles Galaxy	34	44
27	Colorado Rapids SC	34	43
28	San Diego FC	34	38
29	Austin FC	34	34
30	Sporting Kansas City	34	26

Head-to-Head

Toronto FC 16 games · Avg 2.8 goals FC Cincinnati

Last 5 meetings

2024-05-25 Toronto FC 3–4 FC Cincinnati 2024-02-25 FC Cincinnati 0–0 Toronto FC 2023-09-30 Toronto FC 2–3 FC Cincinnati 2023-06-21 FC Cincinnati 3–0 Toronto FC 2022-05-04 FC Cincinnati 2–0 Toronto FC

Recent Form

Toronto FC

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
25 May	FC Cincinnati	H	3–4	L
18 May	Montreal Impact FC	H	5–1	W
16 May	Nashville SC	A	0–2	L
11 May	New York City FC	H	2–3	L
04 May	FC Dallas	H	3–1	W
27 Apr	Orlando City SC	A	2–1	W

FC Cincinnati

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
25 May	Toronto FC	A	4–3	W
18 May	St. Louis City	H	3–1	W
15 May	Atlanta United FC	H	1–0	W
11 May	Columbus Crew SC	A	2–1	W
04 May	Orlando City SC	A	1–0	W
27 Apr	Colorado Rapids SC	H	2–1	W

Season Stats

Toronto FC		FC Cincinnati
#12	Position	#8
39	Points	46
34	Played	34
9 / 12 / 13	W / D / L	12 / 10 / 12
52	Scored	67
67	Conceded	75
-15	GD	-8
1.15	PPG	1.35
26%	Win %	35%

Key Stats

44% Both Teams to Score
H2H (16 games)

44% Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history

12% Clean Sheets
Toronto FC this season

18% Clean Sheets
FC Cincinnati this season

Toronto FC are 12th (39 pts). FC Cincinnati are 8th (46 pts).

Goal Timing (This Season)

Toronto FC

0-15

1/3

16-30

3/10

31-45

6/9

46-60

5/12

61-75

9/7

76+

16/12

■ Scored ■ Conceded

FC Cincinnati

0-15

6/3

16-30

5/11

31-45

10/11

46-60

8/13

61-75

6/7

76+

17/9

■ Scored ■ Conceded

Top Scorers (This Season)

Toronto FC

Josh Sargent	10 G	4 A
Daniel Salloi	9 G	6 A

FC Cincinnati

Kevin Denkey	17 G	2 A
Evander	14 G	13 A
Tom Barlow	10 G	4 A
Pavel Bucha	6 G	3 A

Events

Match Events

0' The game is set. FC Cincinnati kicks off things out of here…
5' It looks like no one’s ball. Toronto FC is used to counterattacking playing. None of the sides are ready to take the lead.
10' Yamil Asad is putting in a real shift tonight. He has covered more ground than anyone else for FC Cincinnati so far.
15' Matt Miazga needs to be pretty careful with his discipline considering 0 Red cards this season.
20' Bret Halsey has been disciplined this evening — perhaps mindful of those 0 cards already picked up this season.
25' Deybi Flores makes no mistake. The score reads 1-0 and Toronto FC are in front.
30' Both keepers have barely been tested. Toronto FC and FC Cincinnati are cancelling each other out in the centre of the park.
33' Toronto FC receives a card for a hard tackle on 33.
38' FC Cincinnati are keeping things exceptionally tight at the back. It will take something special to break them down.
43' The referee has had an easy afternoon — neither side has been overly physical in the tackle.
48' Neither side is committing men forward. This has all the hallmarks of a tense, tactical contest.
53' Luca Orellano has been a constant threat and now delivers with a goal on 53 minutes.
55' GOAL! Kevin Kelsy fires home to make it 1-2!
58' Derrick Etienne is replacing Tyrese Spicer for the Toronto FC side.
60' That looks like a foul for a card for Luca Orellano.
63' Brilliant from the ! Ian Murphy makes it 1-3 with a superb finish on 63.
65' FC Cincinnati manager makes another effort to make the tables turned. DeAndre Yedlin is hanging Bret Halsey on the field on 65 minute.
69' The whistle greets Deybi Flores as he departs to be replaced by Alonso Coello Camarero.
70' The Toronto FC manager makes a substitution. Jonathan Osorio departs to be replaced by Kobe Franklin.
72' FC Cincinnati ring the changes. Gerardo Valenzuela has done his job and it is now time for Sergio Santos to step up.
75' Toronto FC make a change. Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty trudges off to be replaced by Kevin Long on 75 minutes.
78' The referee reaches into his pocket. Out comes the card for Kevin Long.
79' A stunning finish from Luca Orellano — that came from absolutely nowhere!
84' Miles Robinson catches the referee's attention in entirely the wrong way. card on 84.
85' Lorenzo Insigne has been a constant threat and now delivers with a goal on 85 minutes.
88' The crowd applauds Luca Orellano as he leaves the pitch. Yamil Asad steps in for FC Cincinnati.
90' The referee reaches into his pocket. Out comes the card for Prince-Osei Owusu.
Full Time. FC Cincinnati beats Toronto FC

Lineups

Toronto FC Lineups

Starting XI

99
Prince-Osei Owusu
24
Lorenzo Insigne
21
Jonathan Osorio ↓ Kobe Franklin 70'
28
Raoul Petretta
1
Sean Johnson
17
Sigurd Rosted
8
Matthew Longstaff
7
Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty ↓ Kevin Long 75'
20
Deybi Flores ↓ Alonso Coello Camarero 69'
15
Nicksoen Gomis
16
Tyrese Spicer ↓ Derrick Etienne 58'

Bench

FC Cincinnati Lineups

Starting XI

21
Matt Miazga
10
Luciano Acosta
12
Miles Robinson
20
Pavel Bucha
5
Obinna Nwobodo
23
Luca Orellano ↓ Yamil Asad 88'
15
Bret Halsey ↓ DeAndre Yedlin 65'
32
Ian Murphy
18
Roman Celentano
19
Kevin Kelsy
22
Gerardo Valenzuela ↓ Sergio Santos 72'

Bench

H2H

H2H Top Scorers

Player	Goals
Luciano Acosta	5
Nick DeLeon	2
Emmanuel Ledesma	2
Kevin Denkey	2
Ian Murphy	2
Marky Delgado	2
Jonathan Osorio	2
Patrick Mullins	2

Head to Head

Toronto FC Form

2024-05-25 Toronto FC 3–4 FC Cincinnati L 2024-05-18 Toronto FC 5–1 Montreal Impact FC W 2024-05-16 Nashville SC 2–0 Toronto FC L 2024-05-11 Toronto FC 2–3 New York City FC L 2024-05-04 Toronto FC 3–1 FC Dallas W 2024-04-27 Orlando City SC 1–2 Toronto FC W

FC Cincinnati Form

2024-05-25 Toronto FC 3–4 FC Cincinnati W 2024-05-18 FC Cincinnati 3–1 St. Louis City W 2024-05-15 FC Cincinnati 1–0 Atlanta United FC W 2024-05-11 Columbus Crew SC 1–2 FC Cincinnati W 2024-05-04 Orlando City SC 0–1 FC Cincinnati W 2024-04-27 FC Cincinnati 2–1 Colorado Rapids SC W

Predictions

Prediction accuracy

3 / 4

2.2 Toronto FC xG

Expected Goals

Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo

2.44 FC Cincinnati xG

I would bet for: Over 2.5 goals 83% + Both teams to score 80%

Match Result

✓ Correct

Toronto FC33% Draw22% FC Cincinnati45%

Actual: FC Cincinnati win

Both Teams to Score

✓ Correct

Yes80% 0% No20%

Avg goals/match: 4.64

Actual: Yes — both scored

Over / Under Goals

✓ O/U 2.5

Line	Over	Under
± 0.5	98%	2%
± 1.5	94%	6%
± 2.5	83%	17%
± 3.5	67%	33%
± 4.5	48%	52%

Double Chance

Toronto FC or Draw

55%

Draw or FC Cincinnati

67%

Toronto FC or FC Cincinnati

78%

Half-Time Result

✗ Wrong

Toronto FC30% Draw35% FC Cincinnati35%

Actual: Toronto FC win at HT

Correct Score

✗ 3–4 not predicted

3 – 4

Actual

2 – 2

6.7%

1 – 2

6.3%

1 – 1

5.9%

2 – 1

5.7%

2 – 3

5.4%

1 – 3

3 – 2

4.9%

3 – 1

4.1%

3 – 3

3.9%

2 – 4

3.3%

1 – 4

3.1%

0 – 2

Asian Handicap — Toronto FC

Handicap	Toronto FC covers	Push	FC Cincinnati covers
-2.5	10%	—	90%
-2	10%	11%	80%
-1.5	20%	—	80%
-1	20%	15%	64%
-0.5	36%	—	64%
+0.5	56%	—	44%
+1	56%	17%	27%
+1.5	73%	—	27%
+2	73%	13%	14%
+2.5	86%	—	14%

Clean Sheet

Toronto FC keeps clean sheet

10% ✓

FC Cincinnati keeps clean sheet

12% ✓

Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.