Nagoya Grampus vs Sagan Tosu FC, J. League 2024 REGULAR SEASON

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J. League · 2024

Nagoya Grampus

0 – 3

Full Time

Sagan Tosu FC

Sat 30 Nov 2024 · 05:00 UTC Toyota Stadium HT 45' · FT 45'

Y 26' Yusuke Maruhashi

Overview

Match Preview

Nagoya Grampus vs Sagan Tosu FC — J. League at Toyota Stadium.

Nagoya Grampus 18 games · 31 pts (2026/27)
Sagan Tosu FC 0 games · 0 pts (2026/27)

Standings

#	Team	P	Pts
1	Vissel Kobe	18	35
2	Cerezo Osaka FC	18	31
3	Nagoya Grampus	18	31
4	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	18	30
5	Gamba Osaka	18	28
6	Fagiano Okayama FC	18	26
7	Shimizu S-Pulse	18	24
8	Kyoto Sanga FC	18	23
9	V-Varen Nagasaki	18	21
10	Avispa Fukuoka	18	21
11	Kashima Antlers	18	45
12	FC Tokyo	18	37
13	FC Machida Zelvia	18	37
14	Kawasaki Frontale	18	28
15	Tokyo Verdy	18	28
16	Urawa Red Diamonds	18	25
17	Kashiwa Reysol	18	20
18	Yokohama F.Marinos	18	20
19	FC Mito Holly Hock	18	18
20	JEF United Ichihara Chiba	18	12

Head-to-Head

Nagoya Grampus 16 games · Avg 1.9 goals Sagan Tosu FC

Last 5 meetings

2024-11-30 Nagoya Grampus 0–3 Sagan Tosu FC 2024-05-18 Sagan Tosu FC 0–2 Nagoya Grampus 2023-10-27 Nagoya Grampus 1–1 Sagan Tosu FC 2023-03-04 Sagan Tosu FC 1–0 Nagoya Grampus 2022-08-14 Sagan Tosu FC 0–0 Nagoya Grampus

Recent Form

Nagoya Grampus

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
30 Nov	Sagan Tosu FC	H	0–3	L
09 Nov	Kashima Antlers	A	0–0	D
23 Oct	Gamba Osaka	A	2–3	L
19 Oct	Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo	H	0–2	L
04 Oct	Avispa Fukuoka	A	0–1	L
28 Sep	Jubilo Iwata	H	2–0	W

Sagan Tosu FC

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
30 Nov	Nagoya Grampus	A	3–0	W
09 Nov	Yokohama F.Marinos	H	1–2	L
03 Nov	FC Machida Zelvia	H	2–1	W
19 Oct	Kyoto Sanga FC	A	0–2	L
05 Oct	FC Tokyo	A	1–1	D
28 Sep	Avispa Fukuoka	H	0–0	D

Key Stats

31% Both Teams to Score
H2H (16 games)

38% Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history

0% Clean Sheets
Nagoya Grampus this season

Goal Timing (This Season)

Nagoya Grampus

0-15

–/–

16-30

–/1

31-45

–/–

46-60

1/–

61-75

–/–

76+

–/1

■ Scored ■ Conceded

Events

Match Events

0' Here we go! The referee blows the whistle and Nagoya Grampus launch into their encounter with Sagan Tosu FC.
5' Nagoya Grampus are keeping things exceptionally tight at the back. It will take something special to break them down.
8' Sagan Tosu FC is taking the lead after the goal scored by Vykintas Slivka on 8.
10' Magnificent from Hikaru Nakahara! That is 7 goals in 369 appearances — and it could not have come at a better time.
15' Nagoya Grampus started playing very sharply right from the kick off. However, it slowed down the tempo rapidly by 15.
20' The clock is ticking and both teams know a goal could change everything at this point.
25' It looks surprising Sagan Tosu FC does not make any changes. Yuya Yamagishi has some obvious troubles when approaching to the goal.
26' Yusuke Maruhashi was booked on 26.
31' The referee has had an easy afternoon — neither side has been overly physical in the tackle.
36' Katsunori Ueebisu has been disciplined this evening — perhaps mindful of those 0 cards already picked up this season.
41' looks like a favorite considering 0 games won in last 0 matches with its main striker scoring goals.
46' Taichi Kikuchi has so much to prove this time. He replaces Takuya Uchida on 46 minute.
51' Both keepers have barely been tested. Nagoya Grampus and Sagan Tosu FC are cancelling each other out in the centre of the park.
56' Sagan Tosu FC come into this ranked in Array. They desperately need points to push themselves up the standings.
61' Fumiya Kitajima has so much to prove this time. He replaces Yusuke Maruhashi on 61 minute.
62' Fresh legs for Nagoya Grampus! Ryosuke Yamanaka comes on to replace Shuhei Tokumoto.
67' The Japan Hikaru Nakahara breaks the deadlock on 67 minutes. 0-3!
69' Time for substitution for Nagoya Grampus. Kensuke Nagai is replaced by Kasper Junker.
70' Time for substitution for Sagan Tosu FC. Tsubasa Terayama is replaced by Keisuke Sakaiya.
75' The teams are not in a rush to score plenty of goals. It might look strange considering Sagan Tosu FC that had 279 games and scored 293 goals.
80' We miss some good tackles and strikes. Is there anyone on the field to put the game back to action?
84' A tactical swap from Sagan Tosu FC — Naoyuki Fujita on, Akito Fukuta off on 84 minutes.
85' The crowd applauds Keiya Shiihashi as he leaves the pitch. Haruki Yoshida steps in for Nagoya Grampus.
90' The midfield battle is intense right now. Both Nagoya Grampus and Sagan Tosu FC are fighting for every inch of the pitch.
Another three points for Sagan Tosu FC.

Lineups

Nagoya Grampus Lineups

Starting XI

8
Keiya Shiihashi ↓ Haruki Yoshida 85'
34
Takuya Uchida ↓ Taichi Kikuchi 46'
18
Kensuke Nagai ↓ Kasper Junker 69'
1
Mitch Langerak
14
Tsukasa Morishima
15
Sho Inagaki
7
Ryuji Izumi ↓ Katsuhiro Nakayama 84'
11
Yuya Yamagishi ↓ Patric 46'
24
Akinari Kawazura
55
Shuhei Tokumoto ↓ Ryosuke Yamanaka 62'
20
Kennedy Egbus Mikuni

Bench

66
Ryosuke Yamanaka ↑ 62'
10
Patric ↑ 46'
16
Yohei Takeda
27
Katsuhiro Nakayama ↑ 84'
77
Kasper Junker ↑ 69'
33
Taichi Kikuchi ↑ 46'
5
Haruki Yoshida ↑ 85'

Coach Kenta Hasegawa

Sagan Tosu FC Lineups

Starting XI

3
Seiji Kimura
22
Cayman Togashi
6
Akito Fukuta ↓ Naoyuki Fujita 84'
77
Vykintas Slivka
28
Yusuke Maruhashi ↓ Fumiya Kitajima 61'
4
Yuta Imazu
16
Katsunori Ueebisu ↓ Kosuke Yamazaki 84'
71
Il-kyu Park
8
Hikaru Nakahara ↓ Jaja Silva 84'
37
Tsubasa Terayama ↓ Keisuke Sakaiya 70'
25
Ryohei Watanabe

Bench

11
Vinicius Araujo
14
Naoyuki Fujita ↑ 84'
70
Jaja Silva ↑ 84'
31
Masahiro Okamoto
2
Kosuke Yamazaki ↑ 84'
32
Keisuke Sakaiya ↑ 70'
36
Fumiya Kitajima ↑ 61'

Coach Naoyuki Iwata

H2H

H2H Top Scorers

Player	Goals
Gabriel Xavier	2
Jo	2
Hikaru Nakahara	2
Noriyoshi Sakai	2
Gabriel Xavier	2
Sho Inagaki	2
Naoki Maeda	2
Ryuji Izumi	2

Head to Head

Nagoya Grampus Form

2024-11-30 Nagoya Grampus 0–3 Sagan Tosu FC L 2024-11-09 Kashima Antlers 0–0 Nagoya Grampus D 2024-10-23 Gamba Osaka 3–2 Nagoya Grampus L 2024-10-19 Nagoya Grampus 0–2 Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo L 2024-10-04 Avispa Fukuoka 1–0 Nagoya Grampus L 2024-09-28 Nagoya Grampus 2–0 Jubilo Iwata W

Sagan Tosu FC Form

2024-11-30 Nagoya Grampus 0–3 Sagan Tosu FC W 2024-11-09 Sagan Tosu FC 1–2 Yokohama F.Marinos L 2024-11-03 Sagan Tosu FC 2–1 FC Machida Zelvia W 2024-10-19 Kyoto Sanga FC 2–0 Sagan Tosu FC L 2024-10-05 FC Tokyo 1–1 Sagan Tosu FC D 2024-09-28 Sagan Tosu FC 0–0 Avispa Fukuoka D

Predictions

Prediction accuracy

2 / 4

0.97 Nagoya Grampus xG

Expected Goals

Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo

1.31 Sagan Tosu FC xG

I would bet for: Sagan Tosu FC or Draw 71% + Under 2.5 goals 60%

Match Result

✓ Correct

Nagoya Grampus29% Draw31% Sagan Tosu FC40%

Actual: Sagan Tosu FC win

Both Teams to Score

✓ Correct

Yes46% 0% No54%

Avg goals/match: 2.28

Actual: No — clean sheet

Over / Under Goals

✗ O/U 2.5

Line	Over	Under
± 0.5	88%	12%
± 1.5	67%	33%
± 2.5	40%	60%
± 3.5	20%	80%
± 4.5	9%	91%

Double Chance

Nagoya Grampus or Draw

59%

Draw or Sagan Tosu FC

71%

Nagoya Grampus or Sagan Tosu FC

69%

Half-Time Result

✗ Wrong

Nagoya Grampus19% Draw51% Sagan Tosu FC30%

Actual: Sagan Tosu FC win at HT

Correct Score

✓ In top 12

1 – 1

13.9%

0 – 0

12.4%

0 – 1

12.2%

1 – 0

8.7%

0 – 2

8.5%

1 – 2

8.2%

2 – 1

6.1%

2 – 0

4.6%

2 – 2

4.1%

1 – 3

3.7%

0 – 3

Actual

3 – 1

Asian Handicap — Nagoya Grampus

Handicap	Nagoya Grampus covers	Push	Sagan Tosu FC covers
-2.5	3%	—	97%
-2	3%	7%	90%
-1.5	10%	—	90%
-1	10%	16%	74%
-0.5	26%	—	74%
+0.5	57%	—	43%
+1	57%	23%	20%
+1.5	80%	—	20%
+2	80%	13%	7%
+2.5	93%	—	7%

Clean Sheet

Nagoya Grampus keeps clean sheet

28% ✓

Sagan Tosu FC keeps clean sheet

38% ✗

Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.