Sagan Tosu FC vs Nagoya Grampus, J. League 2023 REGULAR SEASON

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J. League · 2023

Sagan Tosu FC

1 – 0

Full Time

Nagoya Grampus

Sat 4 Mar 2023 · 06:00 UTC Ekimae Real Estate Stadium 7,773 HT 45' · FT 45'

Yoichi Naganuma 83' 1–0

Jun Nishikawa 57' Y

Akito Fukuta 63' Y

Y 90' Takuji Yonemoto

Overview

Match Preview

Sagan Tosu FC vs Nagoya Grampus — J. League at Ekimae Real Estate Stadium.

Sagan Tosu FC 0 games · 0 pts (2026/26)
Nagoya Grampus 18 games · 31 pts (2026/26)

Match Details

Referee Koei Koya
Assistant 1 Hiroyuki Igarashi
Assistant 2

11 games this season 🟨 1.3/game ⚽ 11.8 goals/game 🟥 1 total

Standings

#	Team	P	Pts
1	Vissel Kobe	18	35
2	Cerezo Osaka FC	18	31
3	Nagoya Grampus	18	31
4	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	18	30
5	Gamba Osaka	18	28
6	Fagiano Okayama FC	18	26
7	Shimizu S-Pulse	18	24
8	Kyoto Sanga FC	18	23
9	V-Varen Nagasaki	18	21
10	Avispa Fukuoka	18	21
11	Kashima Antlers	18	45
12	FC Tōkyō	18	37
13	FC Machida Zelvia	18	37
14	Kawasaki Frontale	18	28
15	Tokyo Verdy	18	28
16	Urawa Red Diamonds	18	25
17	Kashiwa Reysol	18	20
18	Yokohama F·Marinos	18	20
19	FC Mito Holly Hock	18	18
20	JEF United Ichihara Chiba	18	12

Head-to-Head

Sagan Tosu FC 16 games · Avg 1.9 goals Nagoya Grampus

Last 5 meetings

2023-03-04 Sagan Tosu FC 1–0 Nagoya Grampus 2022-08-14 Sagan Tosu FC 0–0 Nagoya Grampus 2022-03-06 Nagoya Grampus 1–1 Sagan Tosu FC 2021-07-17 Sagan Tosu FC 3–1 Nagoya Grampus 2021-04-18 Nagoya Grampus 1–2 Sagan Tosu FC

Recent Form

Sagan Tosu FC

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
04 Mar	Nagoya Grampus	H	1–0	W
25 Feb	Gamba Osaka	A	1–1	D
18 Feb	Shonan Bellmare	H	1–5	L
05 Nov	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	H	2–2	D
29 Oct	Shonan Bellmare	A	0–3	L
08 Oct	Urawa Red Diamonds	A	1–2	L

Nagoya Grampus

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
04 Mar	Sagan Tosu FC	A	0–1	L
25 Feb	Kyoto Sanga FC	H	1–0	W
18 Feb	Yokohama FC	A	1–0	W
05 Nov	Cerezo Osaka FC	A	1–0	W
29 Oct	FC Tōkyō	H	2–1	W
08 Oct	Kyoto Sanga FC	A	1–1	D

Key Stats

31% Both Teams to Score
H2H (16 games)

38% Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history

28% Clean Sheets
Nagoya Grampus this season

Goal Timing (This Season)

Nagoya Grampus

0-15

2/1

16-30

2/4

31-45

5/4

46-60

4/3

61-75

3/1

76+

4/5

■ Scored ■ Conceded

Events

Match Events

0' The stage is set the green flag drops! Another match against Sagan Tosu FC and Nagoya Grampus has kicked off!
5' The tempo has dropped considerably in the last few minutes. Kenta Hasegawa will be considering his options from the bench.
10' Naldinho has certainly something to prove this evening. He made 18 appearances with only 0 goals this season.
15' Sagan Tosu FC is defending very well tonight not leaving a chance for their rivals to get through for a goal.
20' Akito Fukuta has been one of the livelier players on the pitch with 0 goals to his name this season.
25' While players are taking a pause, let’s have a look at their stats. The teams met 0 times this season with winning -% of all matches.
30' With 1 assists to his name this season, So Kawahara is clearly more than just a goal scorer for Sagan Tosu FC.
35' The referee has had an easy afternoon — neither side has been overly physical in the tackle.
40' Haruya Fujii has been relatively quiet despite scoring 4 goals in his last 439 appearances.
45' The clock is ticking and both teams know a goal could change everything at this point.
50' Nagoya Grampus are happy to let the opposition have the ball in their own half. The trap is set.
55' Kensuke Nagai makes way for Ryoya Morishita at the 55 minute mark. A tactical switch from Nagoya Grampus.
57' Sagan Tosu FC receives a Yellow card for a hard tackle on 57.
62' named a 3-4-2-1 earlier, and opted for a 3-4-2-1 in response. A fascinating tactical duel is developing.
63' Taichi Kikuchi is ready to make an impact after coming on for Naoyuki Fujita at the 63 minute mark.
63' A meaty challenge results in booking for Akito Fukuta on 63.
64' Another change for Sagan Tosu FC made on 64 minute. Naoyuki Fujita leaves to be changed by Taichi Kikuchi.
69' Not even hints on scoring a goal over the last 69 minutes.
72' A tactical swap from Sagan Tosu FC — Ryonosuke Kabayama on, Yuto Iwasaki off on 72 minutes.
75' The whistle greets Ryuji Izumi as he departs to be replaced by Noriyoshi Sakai.
80' Sagan Tosu FC are deployed in a 3-4-2-1 today, looking to exploit space against Nagoya Grampus's 3-4-2-1 shape.
82' Nagoya Grampus ring the changes. Kasper Junker has done his job and it is now time for Naldinho to step up.
83' Naldinho is ready to make an impact after coming on for Kasper Junker at the 83 minute mark.
83' Clinical. Composed. Brilliant. Yoichi Naganuma makes it 1-0.
88' Nagoya Grampus come into this ranked 3 in Array. They desperately need points to push themselves up the standings.
90' A change in the Sagan Tosu FC ranks — Cayman Togashi exits the field as Masaya Tashiro enters on 90.
90' The referee has no hesitation. Takuji Yonemoto is booked for Nagoya Grampus — Yellow card on 90.
The referee brings this contest to a close. Sagan Tosu FC take all three points.

Lineups

Sagan Tosu FC Lineups

3-4-2-1

Starting XI

22
Cayman Togashi ↓ Masaya Tashiro 90'
6
Akito Fukuta
14
Naoyuki Fujita ↓ Taichi Kikuchi 63'
29
Yuto Iwasaki ↓ Ryonosuke Kabayama 72'
18
Jun Nishikawa ↓ Yuji Ono 72'
8
Fuchi Honda ↓ Kohei Tezuka 90'
24
Yoichi Naganuma
71
Il-kyu Park
42
Wataru Harada
2
Kosuke Yamazaki
5
So Kawahara

Bench

19
Kentaro Moriya
10
Yuji Ono ↑ 72'
7
Kohei Tezuka ↑ 90'
41
Ryonosuke Kabayama ↑ 72'
30
Masaya Tashiro ↑ 90'
23
Taichi Kikuchi ↑ 63'
35
Kei Uchiyama

Coach Kenta Kawai

Nagoya Grampus Lineups

3-4-2-1

Starting XI

Bench

34
Takuya Uchida ↑ 75'
5
Kazuki Nagasawa
16
Yohei Takeda
17
Ryoya Morishita ↑ 55'
9
Noriyoshi Sakai ↑ 75'
19
Takuya Shigehiro
92
Naldinho ↑ 83'

Coach Kenta Hasegawa

H2H

H2H Top Scorers

Player	Goals
Noriyoshi Sakai	2
Gabriel Xavier	2
Sho Inagaki	2
Naoki Maeda	2
Ryuji Izumi	2
Tomoya Koyamatsu	2
Gabriel Xavier	2
Jo	2

Head to Head

Sagan Tosu FC Form

2023-03-04 Sagan Tosu FC 1–0 Nagoya Grampus W 2023-02-25 Gamba Osaka 1–1 Sagan Tosu FC D 2023-02-18 Sagan Tosu FC 1–5 Shonan Bellmare L 2022-11-05 Sagan Tosu FC 2–2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima D 2022-10-29 Shonan Bellmare 3–0 Sagan Tosu FC L 2022-10-08 Urawa Red Diamonds 2–1 Sagan Tosu FC L

Nagoya Grampus Form

2023-03-04 Sagan Tosu FC 1–0 Nagoya Grampus L 2023-02-25 Nagoya Grampus 1–0 Kyoto Sanga FC W 2023-02-18 Yokohama FC 0–1 Nagoya Grampus W 2022-11-05 Cerezo Osaka FC 0–1 Nagoya Grampus W 2022-10-29 Nagoya Grampus 2–1 FC Tōkyō W 2022-10-08 Kyoto Sanga FC 1–1 Nagoya Grampus D

Predictions

Prediction accuracy

4 / 4

1.21 Sagan Tosu FC xG

Expected Goals

Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo

1.09 Nagoya Grampus xG

I would bet for: Sagan Tosu FC or Nagoya Grampus 71% + Under 2.5 goals 60%

Match Result

✓ Correct

Sagan Tosu FC41% Draw29% Nagoya Grampus30%

Actual: Sagan Tosu FC win

Both Teams to Score

✓ Correct

Yes47% 0% No53%

Avg goals/match: 2.3

Actual: No — clean sheet

Over / Under Goals

✓ O/U 2.5

Line	Over	Under
± 0.5	88%	12%
± 1.5	67%	33%
± 2.5	40%	60%
± 3.5	21%	79%
± 4.5	9%	91%

Double Chance

Sagan Tosu FC or Draw

71%

Draw or Nagoya Grampus

59%

Sagan Tosu FC or Nagoya Grampus

71%

Half-Time Result

✓ Correct

Sagan Tosu FC26% Draw51% Nagoya Grampus23%

Actual: Draw at HT

Correct Score

✓ In top 12

1 – 1

14.2%

0 – 0

12.3%

1 – 0

Actual

0 – 1

9.7%

2 – 1

7.7%

2 – 0

7.1%

1 – 2

6.9%

0 – 2

5.7%

2 – 2

4.3%

3 – 1

3.2%

3 – 0

2.8%

1 – 3

2.5%

Asian Handicap — Sagan Tosu FC

Handicap	Sagan Tosu FC covers	Push	Nagoya Grampus covers
-2.5	6%	—	94%
-2	6%	11%	83%
-1.5	17%	—	83%
-1	17%	21%	63%
-0.5	37%	—	63%
+0.5	69%	—	31%
+1	69%	18%	13%
+1.5	87%	—	13%
+2	87%	9%	4%
+2.5	96%	—	4%

Clean Sheet

Sagan Tosu FC keeps clean sheet

34% ✗

Nagoya Grampus keeps clean sheet

30% ✓

Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.