1. FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Bayern München, Bundesliga 2024-25 REGULAR SEASON
Overview
Match Preview
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Bayern München — Bundesliga at MEWA Arena.
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 9 games · 10 pts (2026/27)
- FC Bayern München 9 games · 21 pts (2026/27)
Match Details
- Referee Frank Willenborg
- Assistant 1 Guido Kleve
- Assistant 2 Robert Wessel
Standings
| # | Team | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Bayern München | 9 | 21 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 9 | 21 |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 9 | 19 |
| 4 | RB Leipzig | 9 | 18 |
| 5 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 9 | 16 |
| 6 | SV Werder Bremen | 9 | 15 |
| 7 | SV 07 Elversberg | 9 | 13 |
| 8 | VfB Stuttgart | 9 | 12 |
| 9 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 9 | 12 |
| 10 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 9 | 12 |
| 11 | Hamburger SV | 9 | 12 |
| 12 | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 9 | 10 |
| 13 | SC Paderborn 07 | 9 | 10 |
| 14 | FC Augsburg | 9 | 9 |
| 15 | 1. FC Köln | 9 | 9 |
| 16 | 1. FC Union Berlin | 9 | 7 |
| 17 | FC Schalke 04 | 9 | 6 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 9 | 4 |
Head-to-Head
Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | H/A | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Dec | FC Bayern München | H | 2–1 | W |
| 08 Dec | VfL Wolfsburg | A | 3–4 | L |
| 01 Dec | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | H | 2–0 | W |
| 24 Nov | Holstein Kiel | A | 3–0 | W |
| 09 Nov | Borussia Dortmund | H | 3–1 | W |
| 03 Nov | SC Freiburg | A | 0–0 | D |
| Date | Opponent | H/A | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Dec | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | A | 1–2 | L |
| 10 Dec | FK Shakhtar Donetsk | A | 5–1 | W |
| 07 Dec | 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | H | 4–2 | W |
| 03 Dec | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | H | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Nov | Borussia Dortmund | A | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Nov | Paris Saint-Germain FC | H | 1–0 | W |
Season Stats
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 | FC Bayern München | |
|---|---|---|
| #12 | Position | #1 |
| 10 | Points | 21 |
| 9 | Played | 9 |
| 3 / 1 / 5 | W / D / L | 6 / 3 / 0 |
| 18 | Scored | 29 |
| 19 | Conceded | 9 |
| -1 | GD | +20 |
| 1.11 | PPG | 2.33 |
| 33% | Win % | 67% |
Key Stats
79%
Both Teams to Score
H2H (19 games)
H2H (19 games)
100%
Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history
H2H history
33%
Clean Sheets
1. FSV Mainz 05 this season
1. FSV Mainz 05 this season
22%
Clean Sheets
FC Bayern München this season
FC Bayern München this season
1. FSV Mainz 05 are 12th (10 pts). FC Bayern München are 1st (21 pts).
Goal Timing (This Season)
1. FSV Mainz 05
0-15
–/7
16-30
3/2
31-45
5/2
46-60
1/4
61-75
1/2
76+
8/2
■ Scored ■ Conceded
FC Bayern München
0-15
2/1
16-30
5/–
31-45
5/–
46-60
6/2
61-75
5/2
76+
5/3
■ Scored ■ Conceded
Top Scorers (This Season)
1. FSV Mainz 05
| Phillip Tietz | 6 G | |
| Anthony Caci | 3 G | 3 A |
| Sheraldo Becker | 2 G | 4 A |
| Philipp Mwene | 1 G | 1 A |
| Ransford Konigsdorffer | 1 G |
FC Bayern München
| Michael Olise | 6 G | 3 A |
| Harry Kane | 4 G | 7 A |
| Luis Diaz | 4 G | 1 A |
| Dayot Upamecano | 3 G | |
| Ismael Saibari | 2 G | 3 A |
Events
Match Events
- 0' In just a few seconds MEWA Arena will turn into a battlefield for 1. FSV Mainz 05 and FC Bayern München.
- 5' With 0 assists to his name this season, Raphael Guerreiro is clearly more than just a goal scorer for 1. FSV Mainz 05.
- 10' Aleksandar Pavlovic needs to be pretty careful with his discipline considering 0 Yellow cards this season.
- 15' Armindo Sieb is replacing Jonathan Burkardt for the 1. FSV Mainz 05 side.
- 20' It is a cagey affair so far. 1. FSV Mainz 05 in their 3-4-2-1 trying to find a way past FC Bayern München's compact 4-2-3-1.
- 25' Both keepers have barely been tested. 1. FSV Mainz 05 and FC Bayern München are cancelling each other out in the centre of the park.
- 30' Jamal Musiala has been relatively quiet despite scoring 75 goals in his last 554 appearances.
- 35' It looks surprising FC Bayern München does not make any changes. Dominik Kohr has some obvious troubles when approaching to the goal.
- 40' Spectators do not have much to choose from both teams. The sides had several scoring chances but they still need a bit more than just a sight of a goal.
- 41' Against the run of play, Jae-sung Lee has scored! This game has turned on its head.
- 46' Kaishu Sano has been one of the livelier players on the pitch with 1 goals to his name this season.
- 49' The referee reaches into his pocket. Out comes the card for Dominik Kohr.
- 54' 1. FSV Mainz 05 are deployed in a 3-4-2-1 today, looking to exploit space against FC Bayern München's 4-2-3-1 shape.
- 58' The supporters are chanting for Sacha Boey. He replaces Raphael Guerreiro on 58 minute.
- 60' Jae-sung Lee doubles the advantage! 2-0 and this game is slipping away from the opposition.
- 64' A change in the FC Bayern Munchen ranks — Eric Dier exits the field as Mathys Tel enters on 64.
- 69' A quiet spell here at MEWA Arena. FC Bayern München seem content sitting deep and soaking up pressure.
- 74' It looks like no one’s ball. FC Bayern München is used to counterattacking playing. None of the sides are ready to take the lead.
- 77' Karim Onisiwo is ready to make an impact after coming on for Armindo Sieb at the 77 minute mark.
- 78' That is a card for FC Bayern Munchen. Joshua Kimmich will be fuming at that decision.
- 83' We are waiting for someone to take the initiative. Who will be the first to commit to attack?
- 84' Another change for 1. FSV Mainz 05 made on 84 minute. Paul Nebel leaves to be changed by Hyun-seok Hong.
- 87' Leroy Sane has been a constant threat and now delivers with a goal on 87 minutes.
- 90' Poor challenge from Philipp Mwene. The referee spots it immediately and shows the card.
- What a match! Full time at {STADIUM} — 1. FSV Mainz 05 2-1 FC Bayern München.
Lineups
1. FSV Mainz 05 Lineups
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 19
- 31
- 2
- 27
- 16
- 29
- 18
-
8
Paul Nebel ↓ Hyun-seok Hong 84'
- 3
- 6
- 7
Bench
- 9
- 5
- 30
- 25
-
11
Armindo Sieb ↑ 15'
- 1
- 44
-
14
Hyun-seok Hong ↑ 84'
- 22
Coach
Bo Henriksen
FC Bayern München Lineups
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 10
-
15
Eric Dier ↓ Mathys Tel 64'
- 6
- 25
-
22
Raphael Guerreiro ↓ Sacha Boey 58'
- 27
- 18
- 17
- 42
- 3
- 45
Bench
-
8
Leon Goretzka ↑ 58'
- 2
-
23
Sacha Boey ↑ 58'
-
39
Mathys Tel ↑ 64'
- 20
- 35
- 41
- 49
- 37
Coach
Vincent Kompany
H2H
H2H Top Scorers
| Player | Goals |
|---|---|
| Jamal Musiala | 9 |
| Robert Lewandowski | 7 |
| Kingsley Coman | 5 |
| Harry Kane | 5 |
| Leon Goretzka | 5 |
| Leroy Sane | 5 |
| James Rodriguez | 3 |
| Leandro Barreiro Martins | 3 |
Head to Head
1. FSV Mainz 05 Form
FC Bayern München Form
2024-12-14
1. FSV Mainz 05
2–1
FC Bayern München
L
2024-12-10
FK Shakhtar Donetsk
1–5
FC Bayern München
W
2024-12-07
FC Bayern München
4–2
1. FC Heidenheim 1846
W
2024-12-03
FC Bayern München
0–1
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
L
2024-11-30
Borussia Dortmund
1–1
FC Bayern München
D
2024-11-26
FC Bayern München
1–0
Paris Saint-Germain FC
W
Predictions
Prediction accuracy
2 / 4
1.53
1. FSV Mainz 05 xG
Expected Goals
Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo
3.05
FC Bayern München xG
I would bet for:
Over 2.5 goals 82% + Both teams to score 74%
Match Result
✗ WrongActual: 1. FSV Mainz 05 win
Both Teams to Score
✓ Correct
Avg goals/match: 4.58
Actual: Yes — both scored
Over / Under Goals
✓ O/U 2.5| Line | Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ± 0.5 | 98% |
|
2% |
| ± 1.5 | 94% |
|
6% |
| ± 2.5 | 82% |
|
18% |
| ± 3.5 | 65% |
|
35% |
| ± 4.5 | 47% |
|
53% |
Double Chance
1. FSV Mainz 05 or Draw
46%
Draw or FC Bayern München
73%
1. FSV Mainz 05 or FC Bayern München
81%
Half-Time Result
✗ WrongActual: 1. FSV Mainz 05 win at HT
Correct Score
✓ In top 12
1 – 2
7.3%
1 – 3
7.2%
1 – 1
5.5%
1 – 4
5.5%
2 – 3
5.4%
2 – 2
5.4%
0 – 2
5%
0 – 3
4.9%
2 – 4
4.2%
2 – 1
Actual
0 – 4
3.7%
1 – 5
3.4%
Asian Handicap — 1. FSV Mainz 05
| Handicap | 1. FSV Mainz 05 covers | Push | FC Bayern München covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 3% | — | 97% |
| -2 | 3% | 5% | 93% |
| -1.5 | 7% | — | 93% |
| -1 | 7% | 9% | 83% |
| -0.5 | 17% | — | 83% |
| +0.5 | 33% | — | 67% |
| +1 | 33% | 19% | 48% |
| +1.5 | 52% | — | 48% |
| +2 | 52% | 18% | 30% |
| +2.5 | 70% | — | 30% |
Clean Sheet
1. FSV Mainz 05 keeps clean sheet
6%
✓
FC Bayern München keeps clean sheet
23%
✓
Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.

