VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FSV Mainz 05, Bundesliga 2023-24 REGULAR SEASON
Overview
Match Preview
VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FSV Mainz 05 — Bundesliga at Mercedes-Benz Arena.
- VfB Stuttgart 34 games · 62 pts (2025/26)
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 34 games · 40 pts (2025/26)
Match Details
- Referee Deniz Aytekin
- Assistant 1 Christian Dietz
- Assistant 2 Eduard Beitinger
16 games this season
🟨 1.3/game
⚽ 5.3 goals/game
🟥 2 total
Standings
| # | Team | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Bayern München | 34 | 89 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 34 | 73 |
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 65 |
| 4 | VfB Stuttgart | 34 | 62 |
| 5 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 34 | 61 |
| 6 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 34 | 59 |
| 7 | SC Freiburg | 34 | 47 |
| 8 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 34 | 44 |
| 9 | FC Augsburg | 34 | 43 |
| 10 | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 34 | 40 |
| 11 | 1. FC Union Berlin | 34 | 39 |
| 12 | Borussia Monchengladbach | 34 | 38 |
| 13 | Hamburger SV | 34 | 38 |
| 14 | 1. FC Koln | 34 | 32 |
| 15 | SV Werder Bremen | 34 | 32 |
| 16 | VfL Wolfsburg | 34 | 29 |
| 17 | 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | 34 | 26 |
| 18 | FC St. Pauli 1910 | 34 | 26 |
Head-to-Head
Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | H/A | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Feb | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | H | 3–1 | W |
| 06 Feb | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | A | 2–3 | L |
| 03 Feb | SC Freiburg | A | 3–1 | W |
| 27 Jan | RB Leipzig | H | 5–2 | W |
| 20 Jan | VfL Bochum 1848 | A | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Jan | Borussia Monchengladbach | A | 1–3 | L |
| Date | Opponent | H/A | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Feb | VfB Stuttgart | A | 1–3 | L |
| 07 Feb | 1. FC Union Berlin | H | 1–1 | D |
| 03 Feb | SV Werder Bremen | H | 0–1 | L |
| 26 Jan | Eintracht Frankfurt | A | 0–1 | L |
| 13 Jan | VfL Wolfsburg | H | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Dec | Borussia Dortmund | A | 1–1 | D |
Season Stats
| VfB Stuttgart | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | |
|---|---|---|
| #4 | Position | #10 |
| 62 | Points | 40 |
| 34 | Played | 34 |
| 18 / 8 / 8 | W / D / L | 10 / 10 / 14 |
| 71 | Scored | 44 |
| 49 | Conceded | 53 |
| +22 | GD | -9 |
| 1.82 | PPG | 1.18 |
| 53% | Win % | 29% |
Key Stats
67%
Both Teams to Score
H2H (24 games)
H2H (24 games)
58%
Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history
H2H history
32%
Clean Sheets
VfB Stuttgart this season
VfB Stuttgart this season
12%
Clean Sheets
1. FSV Mainz 05 this season
1. FSV Mainz 05 this season
VfB Stuttgart are 4th (62 pts). 1. FSV Mainz 05 are 10th (40 pts).
Goal Timing (This Season)
VfB Stuttgart
0-15
2/2
16-30
3/2
31-45
3/3
46-60
2/2
61-75
2/1
76+
3/3
■ Scored ■ Conceded
1. FSV Mainz 05
0-15
4/1
16-30
1/1
31-45
3/1
46-60
1/2
61-75
–/1
76+
2/5
■ Scored ■ Conceded
Events
Match Events
- 0' In just a few seconds Mercedes-Benz Arena will turn into a battlefield for VfB Stuttgart and 1. FSV Mainz 05.
- 5' Over 5 minutes have gone by without a meaningful attack. The supporters want more.
- 10' Both teams are passing the ball around with high level of urgency. VfB Stuttgart needs to do something about it to get closer to the goal.
- 15' VfB Stuttgart are enjoying more possession but struggling to find a way through a disciplined 1. FSV Mainz 05 backline.
- 20' It is a cagey affair so far. VfB Stuttgart in their 4-2-3-1 trying to find a way past 1. FSV Mainz 05's compact 3-4-2-1.
- 25' Germany international Matondo-Merveille Papela has been a key figure this campaign — 0 goals and 0 assists in the Array this season.
- 30' VfB Stuttgart has dominated the recent head-to-head record, winning 1 of the last 2 meetings.
- 35' The energy levels are beginning to show. Sebastian Hoeneß might look to freshen things up shortly.
- 40' 1. FSV Mainz 05 seems to be on a short break. The game is mainly concentrated in the center. It’s high time they got back to action. Otherwise, it looks like a goalless game.
- 44' Maximilian Mittelstadt does the damage! The net is bulging and VfB Stuttgart surge ahead!
- 46' 1. FSV Mainz 05 make a change. Matondo-Merveille Papela trudges off to be replaced by Jae-sung Lee on 46 minutes.
- 47' The deadlock is broken! Jamie Leweling gets on the scoresheet on 45 minutes.
- 50' Jamie Leweling is having a superb {COMPETITION} campaign — that is 0 goals this season for the .
- 55' 1. FSV Mainz 05 is defending very well tonight not leaving a chance for their rivals to get through for a goal.
- 60' We miss some good tackles and strikes. Is there anyone on the field to put the game back to action?
- 61' Another substitution for VfB Stuttgart to replace Chris Fuhrich by Anthony Rouault on 61 minute.
- 62' Fresh legs for VfB Stuttgart! Sehrou Guirassy comes on to replace Jamie Leweling.
- 67' named a 4-2-3-1 earlier, and opted for a 3-4-2-1 in response. A fascinating tactical duel is developing.
- 70' Time for substitution for 1. FSV Mainz 05. Andreas Hanche-Olsen is replaced by Tom Krauss.
- 73' GOAL! Deniz Undav scores on 73.
- 76' The France Ludovic Ajorque breaks the deadlock on 76 minutes. 4-1!
- 76' Angelo Stiller makes way for Mahmoud Dahoud at the 76 minute mark. A tactical switch from VfB Stuttgart.
- 79' VfB Stuttgart make a change. Deniz Undav trudges off to be replaced by Jeong Wooyeong on 79 minutes.
- 82' Controversy at the stadium! Atakan Karazor argues furiously but the Yellow card stands.
- 84' Brajan Gruda gets the nod from 1. FSV Mainz 05. He replaces Josuha Guilavogui and will look to change the dynamic.
- 84' The referee does not hesitate — a Yellow card for Josuha Guilavogui on 84 minutes.
- 89' Fabian Bredlow has been disciplined this evening — perhaps mindful of those 0 cards already picked up this season.
- What a match! Full time at {STADIUM} — VfB Stuttgart 3-1 1. FSV Mainz 05.
Lineups
VfB Stuttgart Lineups
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 16
- 2
- 7
-
15
Pascal Stenzel ↓ Josha Vagnoman 62'
-
27
Chris Fuhrich ↓ Anthony Rouault 61'
- 1
- 21
- 18
-
26
Deniz Undav ↓ Jeong Wooyeong 79'
- 8
-
6
Angelo Stiller ↓ Mahmoud Dahoud 76'
Bench
-
4
Josha Vagnoman ↑ 62'
-
5
Mahmoud Dahoud ↑ 76'
-
9
Sehrou Guirassy ↑ 62'
- 32
-
10
Jeong Wooyeong ↑ 79'
- 20
-
29
Anthony Rouault ↑ 61'
- 41
- 19
Coach
Sebastian Hoeneß
1. FSV Mainz 05 Lineups
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 3
- 17
- 19
- 31
- 23
- 27
- 29
- 18
-
11
Jessic Ngankam ↓ Marco Richter 46'
- 25
- 24
Bench
-
10
Marco Richter ↑ 46'
-
8
Leandro Barreiro Martins ↑ 46'
- 21
- 20
-
14
Tom Krauss ↑ 70'
- 1
-
43
Brajan Gruda ↑ 84'
-
7
Jae-sung Lee ↑ 46'
- 45
Coach
Jan Siewert
H2H
H2H Top Scorers
| Player | Goals |
|---|---|
| Sehrou Guirassy | 5 |
| Alexander Hack | 2 |
| Marcus Ingvartsen | 2 |
| Silas Wamangituka | 2 |
| Sasa Kalajdzic | 2 |
| Jamie Leweling | 2 |
| Borna Sosa | 2 |
| Deniz Undav | 1 |
Head to Head
VfB Stuttgart Form
1. FSV Mainz 05 Form
Predictions
Prediction accuracy
4 / 4
2.52
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo
1.05
1. FSV Mainz 05 xG
I would bet for:
Over 2.5 goals 68% + VfB Stuttgart to win 67%
Match Result
✓ CorrectActual: VfB Stuttgart win
Both Teams to Score
✓ Correct
Avg goals/match: 3.57
Actual: Yes — both scored
Over / Under Goals
✓ O/U 2.5| Line | Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ± 0.5 | 96% |
|
4% |
| ± 1.5 | 87% |
|
13% |
| ± 2.5 | 68% |
|
32% |
| ± 3.5 | 47% |
|
53% |
| ± 4.5 | 28% |
|
72% |
Double Chance
VfB Stuttgart or Draw
86%
Draw or 1. FSV Mainz 05
33%
VfB Stuttgart or 1. FSV Mainz 05
81%
Half-Time Result
✓ CorrectActual: VfB Stuttgart win at HT
Correct Score
✓ In top 12
2 – 1
9.1%
2 – 0
9%
1 – 1
8.3%
3 – 1
Actual
3 – 0
7.3%
1 – 0
6.8%
4 – 1
4.8%
2 – 2
4.7%
4 – 0
4.6%
0 – 0
4.1%
3 – 2
4%
1 – 2
3.8%
Asian Handicap — VfB Stuttgart
| Handicap | VfB Stuttgart covers | Push | 1. FSV Mainz 05 covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 27% | — | 73% |
| -2 | 27% | 20% | 53% |
| -1.5 | 47% | — | 53% |
| -1 | 47% | 21% | 32% |
| -0.5 | 68% | — | 32% |
| +0.5 | 87% | — | 13% |
| +1 | 87% | 8% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | — | 5% |
| +2 | 95% | 4% | 1% |
| +2.5 | 99% | — | 1% |
Clean Sheet
VfB Stuttgart keeps clean sheet
36%
✓
1. FSV Mainz 05 keeps clean sheet
9%
✓
Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.