VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FSV Mainz 05, Bundesliga 2023-24 REGULAR SEASON

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Bundesliga · 2023-24

VfB Stuttgart

3 – 1

Full Time

1. FSV Mainz 05

Sun 11 Feb 2024 · 14:30 UTC Mercedes-Benz Arena 52,000 HT 45' · FT 45'

Maximilian Mittelstadt 45+2' 1–0

Jamie Leweling 45+5' 2–0

Deniz Undav 73' 3–0

3–1 76' Ludovic Ajorque

Atakan Karazor 82' Y

Y 84' Josuha Guilavogui

Overview

Match Preview

VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FSV Mainz 05 — Bundesliga at Mercedes-Benz Arena.

VfB Stuttgart 9 games · 12 pts (2026/27)
1. FSV Mainz 05 9 games · 10 pts (2026/27)

Match Details

Referee Deniz Aytekin
Assistant 1 Christian Dietz
Assistant 2 Eduard Beitinger

Standings

#	Team	P	Pts
1	FC Bayern München	9	21
2	Borussia Dortmund	9	21
3	SC Freiburg	9	19
4	RB Leipzig	9	18
5	Bayer 04 Leverkusen	9	16
6	SV Werder Bremen	9	15
7	SV 07 Elversberg	9	13
8	VfB Stuttgart	9	12
9	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim	9	12
10	Eintracht Frankfurt	9	12
11	Hamburger SV	9	12
12	1. FSV Mainz 05	9	10
13	SC Paderborn 07	9	10
14	FC Augsburg	9	9
15	1. FC Köln	9	9
16	1. FC Union Berlin	9	7
17	FC Schalke 04	9	6
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	9	4

Head-to-Head

VfB Stuttgart 24 games · Avg 3.1 goals 1. FSV Mainz 05

Last 5 meetings

2024-02-11 VfB Stuttgart 3–1 1. FSV Mainz 05 2023-09-16 1. FSV Mainz 05 1–3 VfB Stuttgart 2023-05-21 1. FSV Mainz 05 1–4 VfB Stuttgart 2023-01-21 VfB Stuttgart 1–1 1. FSV Mainz 05 2022-04-16 1. FSV Mainz 05 0–0 VfB Stuttgart

Recent Form

VfB Stuttgart

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
11 Feb	1. FSV Mainz 05	H	3–1	W
06 Feb	Bayer 04 Leverkusen	A	2–3	L
03 Feb	SC Freiburg	A	3–1	W
27 Jan	RB Leipzig	H	5–2	W
20 Jan	VfL Bochum 1848	A	0–1	L
14 Jan	Borussia Mönchengladbach	A	1–3	L

1. FSV Mainz 05

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
11 Feb	VfB Stuttgart	A	1–3	L
07 Feb	1. FC Union Berlin	H	1–1	D
03 Feb	SV Werder Bremen	H	0–1	L
26 Jan	Eintracht Frankfurt	A	0–1	L
13 Jan	VfL Wolfsburg	H	1–1	D
19 Dec	Borussia Dortmund	A	1–1	D

Season Stats

VfB Stuttgart		1. FSV Mainz 05
#8	Position	#12
12	Points	10
9	Played	9
4 / 0 / 5	W / D / L	3 / 1 / 5
15	Scored	18
15	Conceded	19
+0	GD	-1
1.33	PPG	1.11
44%	Win %	33%

Key Stats

67% Both Teams to Score
H2H (24 games)

58% Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history

22% Clean Sheets
VfB Stuttgart this season

33% Clean Sheets
1. FSV Mainz 05 this season

VfB Stuttgart are 8th (12 pts). 1. FSV Mainz 05 are 12th (10 pts).

Goal Timing (This Season)

VfB Stuttgart

0-15

3/1

16-30

2/2

31-45

1/1

46-60

4/2

61-75

2/3

76+

3/4

■ Scored ■ Conceded

1. FSV Mainz 05

0-15

–/7

16-30

3/2

31-45

5/2

46-60

1/4

61-75

1/2

76+

8/2

■ Scored ■ Conceded

Top Scorers (This Season)

VfB Stuttgart

Ermedin Demirovic	5 G
Josha Vagnoman	2 G	1 A
Maximilian Mittelstadt	2 G	1 A
Bilal El Khannouss	2 G
Grischa Promel	1 G

1. FSV Mainz 05

Phillip Tietz	6 G
Anthony Caci	3 G	3 A
Sheraldo Becker	2 G	4 A
Philipp Mwene	1 G	1 A
Ransford Konigsdorffer	1 G

Events

Match Events

0' The match kicks off with home fans waiting with anticipation for VfB Stuttgart to score. At the same time, 1. FSV Mainz 05 does not seem to pull back! Let’s get it on!
5' The energy levels are beginning to show. Jan Siewert might look to freshen things up shortly.
10' VfB Stuttgart seems to be on a short break. The game is mainly concentrated in the center. It’s high time they got back to action. Otherwise, it looks like a goalless game.
15' A tactical chess match is unfolding here. The question is which manager blinks first.
20' The clock is ticking and both teams know a goal could change everything at this point.
25' Atakan Karazor is putting in a real shift tonight. He has covered more ground than anyone else for 1. FSV Mainz 05 so far.
30' 1. FSV Mainz 05 have won 425 goals from 447 games. They will be desperate to add to that tally today.
35' Chris Fuhrich is a natural forward and has been asked to do a very specific job for VfB Stuttgart tonight.
40' Jessic Ngankam needs to be pretty careful with his discipline considering 0 Red cards this season.
44' The Germany Maximilian Mittelstadt breaks the deadlock on 44 minutes. 1-0!
46' Another substitution for 1. FSV Mainz 05 to replace Matondo-Merveille Papela by Jae-sung Lee on 46 minute.
47' What a strike from Jamie Leweling! The score is 2-0.
50' GOAL! Jamie Leweling fires home to make it 3-0!
55' The referee has had an easy afternoon — neither side has been overly physical in the tackle.
60' 1. FSV Mainz 05 fans have not had much to celebrate tonight. Their side is struggling to get forward.
61' VfB Stuttgart ring the changes. Chris Fuhrich has done his job and it is now time for Anthony Rouault to step up.
62' The supporters are chanting for Sehrou Guirassy. He replaces Jamie Leweling on 62 minute.
67' Both teams are passing the ball around with high level of urgency. 1. FSV Mainz 05 needs to do something about it to get closer to the goal.
70' The 1. FSV Mainz 05 manager makes a substitution. Andreas Hanche-Olsen departs to be replaced by Tom Krauss.
73' Deniz Undav is having a superb {COMPETITION} campaign — that is 5 goals this season for the .
76' Clinical. Composed. Brilliant. Ludovic Ajorque makes it 4-1.
76' Fresh legs for VfB Stuttgart! Mahmoud Dahoud comes on to replace Angelo Stiller.
79' VfB Stuttgart make a change. Deniz Undav trudges off to be replaced by Jeong Wooyeong on 79 minutes.
82' Atakan Karazor has been a danger all night but risks an early exit having now seen a Yellow card on 82.
84' 1. FSV Mainz 05 make a change. Josuha Guilavogui trudges off to be replaced by Brajan Gruda on 84 minutes.
84' It’s gonna be a Yellow card for Josuha Guilavogui.
89' Players seem to put ease on their energy level Spectators hardly appreciate such approach. Teams need to speed up the tempo.
3-1 the final result. 1. FSV Mainz 05 will be bitterly disappointed.

Lineups

VfB Stuttgart Lineups

4-2-3-1

Starting XI

Bench

Coach Sebastian Hoeneß

1. FSV Mainz 05 Lineups

3-4-2-1

Starting XI

3
Sepp van den Berg
17
Ludovic Ajorque
19
Anthony Caci
31
Dominik Kohr ↓ Leandro Barreiro Martins 46'
23
Josuha Guilavogui ↓ Brajan Gruda 84'
27
Robin Zentner
29
Jonathan Burkardt
18
Nadiem Amiri
11
Jessic Ngankam ↓ Marco Richter 46'
25
Andreas Hanche-Olsen ↓ Tom Krauss 70'
24
Matondo-Merveille Papela ↓ Jae-sung Lee 46'

Bench

Coach Jan Siewert

H2H

H2H Top Scorers

Player	Goals
Sehrou Guirassy	5
Jamie Leweling	2
Borna Sosa	2
Alexander Hack	2
Marcus Ingvartsen	2
Silas Wamangituka	2
Sasa Kalajdzic	2
Maximilian Mittelstadt	1

Head to Head

VfB Stuttgart Form

2024-02-11 VfB Stuttgart 3–1 1. FSV Mainz 05 W 2024-02-06 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3–2 VfB Stuttgart L 2024-02-03 SC Freiburg 1–3 VfB Stuttgart W 2024-01-27 VfB Stuttgart 5–2 RB Leipzig W 2024-01-20 VfL Bochum 1848 1–0 VfB Stuttgart L 2024-01-14 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3–1 VfB Stuttgart L

1. FSV Mainz 05 Form

2024-02-11 VfB Stuttgart 3–1 1. FSV Mainz 05 L 2024-02-07 1. FSV Mainz 05 1–1 1. FC Union Berlin D 2024-02-03 1. FSV Mainz 05 0–1 SV Werder Bremen L 2024-01-26 Eintracht Frankfurt 1–0 1. FSV Mainz 05 L 2024-01-13 1. FSV Mainz 05 1–1 VfL Wolfsburg D 2023-12-19 Borussia Dortmund 1–1 1. FSV Mainz 05 D

Predictions

Prediction accuracy

4 / 4

2.52 VfB Stuttgart xG

Expected Goals

Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo

1.41 1. FSV Mainz 05 xG

I would bet for: Over 2.5 goals 74% + Both teams to score 69%

Match Result

✓ Correct

VfB Stuttgart61% Draw20% 1. FSV Mainz 0519%

Actual: VfB Stuttgart win

Both Teams to Score

✓ Correct

Yes69% 0% No31%

Avg goals/match: 3.93

Actual: Yes — both scored

Over / Under Goals

✓ O/U 2.5

Line	Over	Under
± 0.5	97%	3%
± 1.5	90%	10%
± 2.5	74%	26%
± 3.5	54%	46%
± 4.5	35%	65%

Double Chance

VfB Stuttgart or Draw

81%

Draw or 1. FSV Mainz 05

39%

VfB Stuttgart or 1. FSV Mainz 05

80%

Half-Time Result

✓ Correct

VfB Stuttgart45% Draw36% 1. FSV Mainz 0519%

Actual: VfB Stuttgart win at HT

Correct Score

✓ In top 12

2 – 1

8.6%

1 – 1

7.8%

3 – 1

Actual

2 – 0

6.3%

2 – 2

3 – 0

5.2%

3 – 2

1 – 2

4.9%

1 – 0

4.6%

4 – 1

4.5%

4 – 0

3.2%

4 – 2

3.2%

Asian Handicap — VfB Stuttgart

Handicap	VfB Stuttgart covers	Push	1. FSV Mainz 05 covers
-2.5	23%	—	77%
-2	23%	18%	60%
-1.5	40%	—	60%
-1	40%	20%	40%
-0.5	60%	—	40%
+0.5	80%	—	20%
+1	80%	11%	9%
+1.5	91%	—	9%
+2	91%	6%	3%
+2.5	97%	—	3%

Clean Sheet

VfB Stuttgart keeps clean sheet

25% ✓

1. FSV Mainz 05 keeps clean sheet

9% ✓

Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.