Sunday , 11 October 2026

Heart of Midlothian FC vs SK Sturm Graz, Champions League Q 2026 QUALIFICATION

Tue 28 Jul 2026 · 18:45 UTC Tynecastle Park HT 45' · FT 45'
0–1 64' Simon Seidl
0–2 68' Emran Soglo

Overview

Match Preview

Heart of Midlothian FC vs SK Sturm Graz — Champions League Q at Tynecastle Park.

Match Details

  • Referee Andris Treimanis

Head-to-Head

2
Heart of Midlothian FC 2 games · Avg 1.5 goals SK Sturm Graz

Recent Form

DateOpponentH/A ScoreResult
28 Jul SK Sturm Graz H 0–2 L
21 Jul SK Sturm Graz A 0–1 L
16 May Celtic FC A 1–3 L
13 May Falkirk FC H 3–0 W
09 May Motherwell FC A 1–1 D
04 May Rangers FC H 2–1 W
DateOpponentH/A ScoreResult
28 Jul Heart of Midlothian FC A 2–0 W
21 Jul Heart of Midlothian FC H 1–0 W
29 Jan SK Brann H 1–0 W
22 Jan Feyenoord Rotterdam A 0–3 L
11 Dec FK Crvena Zvezda H 0–1 L
27 Nov Panathinaikos AO A 1–2 L

Key Stats

0% Both Teams to Score
H2H (2 games)
0% Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history
0% Clean Sheets
Heart of Midlothian FC this season
67% Clean Sheets
SK Sturm Graz this season

Goal Timing (This Season)

SK Sturm Graz
0-15
1/–
16-30
–/–
31-45
–/–
46-60
–/–
61-75
2/1
76+
–/–
■ Scored ■ Conceded

Events

Match Events

Lineups

H2H

Predictions

Prediction accuracy
4 / 4
1.08 Heart of Midlothian FC xG
Expected Goals
Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo
1.2 SK Sturm Graz xG
I would bet for: Heart of Midlothian FC or SK Sturm Graz 69% + Under 2.5 goals 60%

Match Result

✓ Correct
Heart of Midlothian FC31% Draw31% SK Sturm Graz38%
Actual: SK Sturm Graz win

Both Teams to Score

✓ Correct
Yes47% 0% No53%
Avg goals/match: 2.28
Actual: No — clean sheet

Over / Under Goals

✓ O/U 2.5
Line Over Under
± 0.5 88%
12%
± 1.5 67%
33%
± 2.5 40%
60%
± 3.5 20%
80%
± 4.5 9%
91%

Double Chance

Heart of Midlothian FC or Draw
62%
Draw or SK Sturm Graz
69%
Heart of Midlothian FC or SK Sturm Graz
69%

Half-Time Result

✓ Correct
Heart of Midlothian FC23% Draw51% SK Sturm Graz26%
Actual: Draw at HT

Correct Score

✓ In top 12
1 – 1
14.2%
0 – 0
12.4%
0 – 1
11%
1 – 0
9.8%
1 – 2
7.7%
0 – 2
Actual
2 – 1
6.9%
2 – 0
5.7%
2 – 2
4.3%
1 – 3
3.1%
0 – 3
2.8%
3 – 1
2.5%

Asian Handicap — Heart of Midlothian FC

Handicap Heart of Midlothian FC covers Push SK Sturm Graz covers
-2.5 4% — 96%
-2 4% 9% 87%
-1.5 13% — 87%
-1 13% 19% 69%
-0.5 31% — 69%
+0.5 63% — 37%
+1 63% 21% 16%
+1.5 84% — 16%
+2 84% 11% 5%
+2.5 95% — 5%

Clean Sheet

Heart of Midlothian FC keeps clean sheet
31% ✓
SK Sturm Graz keeps clean sheet
35% ✗

Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.