FC St. Pauli 1910 vs 1. FSV Mainz 05, Bundesliga 2025-26 REGULAR SEASON

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Bundesliga · 2025-26

FC St. Pauli 1910

1 – 2

Full Time

1. FSV Mainz 05

Sun 3 May 2026 · 13:30 UTC Millerntor-Stadion 29,546 HT 45' · FT 45'

0–1 6' Phillip Tietz

0–2 40' Philipp Mwene

Abdoulie Ceesay 87' 1–2

Y 68' Daniel Batz

Karol Mets 89' Y

Connor Metcalfe 90' Y

Abdoulie Ceesay 90' Y

Overview

Match Preview

FC St. Pauli 1910 vs 1. FSV Mainz 05 — Bundesliga at Millerntor-Stadion.

FC St. Pauli 1910 0 games · 0 pts (2026/27)
1. FSV Mainz 05 9 games · 10 pts (2026/27)

Match Details

Referee Timo Gerach
Assistant 1 Alexander Sather
Assistant 2 Patrick Kessel

4 games this season 🟨 4.8/game ⚽ 9.5 goals/game 🟥 1 total

Standings

#	Team	P	Pts
1	FC Bayern München	9	21
2	Borussia Dortmund	9	21
3	SC Freiburg	9	19
4	RB Leipzig	9	18
5	Bayer 04 Leverkusen	9	16
6	SV Werder Bremen	9	15
7	SV 07 Elversberg	9	13
8	VfB Stuttgart	9	12
9	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim	9	12
10	Eintracht Frankfurt	9	12
11	Hamburger SV	9	12
12	1. FSV Mainz 05	9	10
13	SC Paderborn 07	9	10
14	FC Augsburg	9	9
15	1. FC Köln	9	9
16	1. FC Union Berlin	9	7
17	FC Schalke 04	9	6
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	9	4

Head-to-Head

FC St. Pauli 1910 4 games · Avg 2.0 goals 1. FSV Mainz 05

Last 5 meetings

2026-05-03 FC St. Pauli 1910 1–2 1. FSV Mainz 05 2025-12-21 1. FSV Mainz 05 0–0 FC St. Pauli 1910 2025-02-22 1. FSV Mainz 05 2–0 FC St. Pauli 1910 2024-10-05 FC St. Pauli 1910 0–3 1. FSV Mainz 05

Recent Form

FC St. Pauli 1910

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
03 May	1. FSV Mainz 05	H	1–2	L
25 Apr	1. FC Heidenheim 1846	A	0–2	L
17 Apr	1. FC Köln	H	1–1	D
11 Apr	FC Bayern München	H	0–5	L
05 Apr	1. FC Union Berlin	A	1–1	D
22 Mar	SC Freiburg	H	1–2	L

1. FSV Mainz 05

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
03 May	FC St. Pauli 1910	A	2–1	W
25 Apr	FC Bayern München	H	3–4	L
19 Apr	Borussia Mönchengladbach	A	1–1	D
12 Apr	SC Freiburg	H	0–1	L
04 Apr	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim	A	2–1	W
22 Mar	Eintracht Frankfurt	H	2–1	W

Key Stats

25% Both Teams to Score
H2H (4 games)

50% Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history

33% Clean Sheets
1. FSV Mainz 05 this season

Goal Timing (This Season)

1. FSV Mainz 05

0-15

–/7

16-30

3/2

31-45

5/2

46-60

1/4

61-75

1/2

76+

8/2

■ Scored ■ Conceded

Top Scorers (This Season)

1. FSV Mainz 05

Phillip Tietz	6 G
Anthony Caci	3 G	3 A
Sheraldo Becker	2 G	4 A
Philipp Mwene	1 G	1 A
Ransford Konigsdorffer	1 G

Events

Match Events

0' FC St. Pauli 1910 have kicked off against 1. FSV Mainz 05. Both sides are eager to make an early statement.
5' Japan international Joel Fujita has been a key figure this campaign — 1 goals and 0 assists in the Array this season.
6' Assisted by Sheraldo Becker with the perfectly-timed delivery and Phillip Tietz makes no mistake. 0-1!
11' FC St. Pauli 1910 are enjoying more possession but struggling to find a way through a disciplined 1. FSV Mainz 05 backline.
16' Philipp Mwene is a natural and has been asked to do a very specific job for 1. FSV Mainz 05 tonight.
21' It looks like no one’s ball. FC St. Pauli 1910 is used to counterattacking playing. None of the sides are ready to take the lead.
26' While there is no rush on the pitch, let’s have a look at some stats. Jackson Irvine made 388 appearances and scored 17 goals. He is very likely to score a goal today.
31' Spectators are craving for more action. Both teams play very cautiously. They need to put some more energy.
36' The referee is likely to let players tackle, as he already missed some meaty challenges during opening seconds. He is still to establish what should not be done by the players and what is acceptable on the pitch. It’s going to be a tough game for Tomoya Ando suffering a number of foals already.
40' Magnificent from Philipp Mwene! That is 10 goals in 444 appearances — and it could not have come at a better time.
45' named a 3-4-2-1 earlier, and opted for a 3-5-2 in response. A fascinating tactical duel is developing.
50' We are waiting for someone to take the initiative. Who will be the first to commit to attack?
55' Spectators do not have much to choose from both teams. The sides had several scoring chances but they still need a bit more than just a sight of a goal.
60' 1. FSV Mainz 05 come into this ranked 10 in Array. They desperately need points to push themselves up the standings.
65' The tempo has dropped considerably in the last few minutes. Alexander Blessin will be considering his options from the bench.
68' The referee shows 1. FSV Mainz 05 player a card on 68.
73' Stefan Posch has been one of the livelier players on the pitch with 0 goals to his name this season.
78' The home supporters are growing impatient. FC St. Pauli 1910 must find a spark to ignite this game.
83' Andreas Hountondji has been relatively quiet despite scoring 18 goals in his last 399 appearances.
87' GOAL! Abdoulie Ceesay fires home to make it 1-2!
89' It’s a booking for FC St. Pauli 1910 player. Karol Mets gets a card.
90' FC St. Pauli 1910 receives a card for a hard tackle on 90.
The final score is 1-2.

Lineups

FC St. Pauli 1910 Lineups

3-4-2-1

Starting XI

Bench

Coach Alexander Blessin

1. FSV Mainz 05 Lineups

3-5-2

Starting XI

Bench

Coach Urs Fischer

H2H

H2H Top Scorers

Player	Goals
Jonathan Burkardt	2
Armindo Sieb	1
Paul Nebel	1
Jae-sung Lee	1
Abdoulie Ceesay	1
Philipp Mwene	1
Phillip Tietz	1

Head to Head

FC St. Pauli 1910 Form

2026-05-03 FC St. Pauli 1910 1–2 1. FSV Mainz 05 L 2026-04-25 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 2–0 FC St. Pauli 1910 L 2026-04-17 FC St. Pauli 1910 1–1 1. FC Köln D 2026-04-11 FC St. Pauli 1910 0–5 FC Bayern München L 2026-04-05 1. FC Union Berlin 1–1 FC St. Pauli 1910 D 2026-03-22 FC St. Pauli 1910 1–2 SC Freiburg L

1. FSV Mainz 05 Form

2026-05-03 FC St. Pauli 1910 1–2 1. FSV Mainz 05 W 2026-04-25 1. FSV Mainz 05 3–4 FC Bayern München L 2026-04-19 Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–1 1. FSV Mainz 05 D 2026-04-12 1. FSV Mainz 05 0–1 SC Freiburg L 2026-04-04 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 1–2 1. FSV Mainz 05 W 2026-03-22 1. FSV Mainz 05 2–1 Eintracht Frankfurt W

Predictions

Prediction accuracy

1 / 4

0.98 FC St. Pauli 1910 xG

Expected Goals

Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo

1.53 1. FSV Mainz 05 xG

I would bet for: Markets are evenly balanced — no clear value pick.

Match Result

✓ Correct

FC St. Pauli 191025% Draw28% 1. FSV Mainz 0547%

Actual: 1. FSV Mainz 05 win

Both Teams to Score

✗ Wrong

Yes50% 0% No50%

Avg goals/match: 2.51

Actual: Yes — both scored

Over / Under Goals

✗ O/U 2.5

Line	Over	Under
± 0.5	90%	10%
± 1.5	72%	28%
± 2.5	45%	55%
± 3.5	25%	75%
± 4.5	12%	88%

Double Chance

FC St. Pauli 1910 or Draw

53%

Draw or 1. FSV Mainz 05

75%

FC St. Pauli 1910 or 1. FSV Mainz 05

72%

Half-Time Result

✗ Wrong

FC St. Pauli 191018% Draw48% 1. FSV Mainz 0534%

Actual: 1. FSV Mainz 05 win at HT

Correct Score

✓ In top 12

1 – 1

13.1%

0 – 1

11.4%

0 – 0

10.1%

0 – 2

9.2%

1 – 2

Actual

1 – 0

6.9%

2 – 1

5.7%

1 – 3

4.6%

0 – 3

4.6%

2 – 2

4.5%

2 – 0

3.8%

2 – 3

2.4%

Asian Handicap — FC St. Pauli 1910

Handicap	FC St. Pauli 1910 covers	Push	1. FSV Mainz 05 covers
-2.5	2%	—	98%
-2	2%	6%	92%
-1.5	8%	—	92%
-1	8%	14%	77%
-0.5	23%	—	77%
+0.5	51%	—	49%
+1	51%	23%	25%
+1.5	75%	—	25%
+2	75%	15%	10%
+2.5	90%	—	10%

Clean Sheet

FC St. Pauli 1910 keeps clean sheet

22% ✓

1. FSV Mainz 05 keeps clean sheet

38% ✓

Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.