VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FSV Mainz 05, Bundesliga 2025-26 REGULAR SEASON

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Bundesliga · 2025-26

VfB Stuttgart

2 – 1

Full Time

1. FSV Mainz 05

Sun 26 Oct 2025 · 16:30 UTC HT 45' · FT 45'

Overview

Match Preview

VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FSV Mainz 05 — Bundesliga .

VfB Stuttgart 34 games · 62 pts (2025/26)
1. FSV Mainz 05 34 games · 40 pts (2025/26)

Match Details

Referee Felix Zwayer

35 games this season 🟨 1.6/game ⚽ 7.2 goals/game 🟥 1 total

Standings

#	Team	P	Pts
1	FC Bayern München	34	89
2	Borussia Dortmund	34	73
3	RB Leipzig	34	65
4	VfB Stuttgart	34	62
5	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim	34	61
6	Bayer 04 Leverkusen	34	59
7	SC Freiburg	34	47
8	Eintracht Frankfurt	34	44
9	FC Augsburg	34	43
10	1. FSV Mainz 05	34	40
11	1. FC Union Berlin	34	39
12	Borussia Monchengladbach	34	38
13	Hamburger SV	34	38
14	1. FC Koln	34	32
15	SV Werder Bremen	34	32
16	VfL Wolfsburg	34	29
17	1. FC Heidenheim 1846	34	26
18	FC St. Pauli 1910	34	26

Head-to-Head

VfB Stuttgart 24 games · Avg 3.1 goals 1. FSV Mainz 05

Last 5 meetings

2025-10-26 VfB Stuttgart 2–1 1. FSV Mainz 05 2025-01-25 1. FSV Mainz 05 2–0 VfB Stuttgart 2024-08-31 VfB Stuttgart 3–3 1. FSV Mainz 05 2024-02-11 VfB Stuttgart 3–1 1. FSV Mainz 05 2023-09-16 1. FSV Mainz 05 1–3 VfB Stuttgart

Recent Form

VfB Stuttgart

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
26 Oct	1. FSV Mainz 05	H	2–1	W
23 Oct	Fenerbahce SK	A	0–1	L
18 Oct	VfL Wolfsburg	A	3–0	W
05 Oct	1. FC Heidenheim 1846	H	1–0	W
02 Oct	FC Basel 1893	A	0–2	L
28 Sep	1. FC Koln	A	2–1	W

1. FSV Mainz 05

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
26 Oct	VfB Stuttgart	A	1–2	L
18 Oct	Bayer 04 Leverkusen	H	3–4	L
05 Oct	Hamburger SV	A	0–4	L
27 Sep	Borussia Dortmund	H	0–2	L
20 Sep	FC Augsburg	A	4–1	W
13 Sep	RB Leipzig	H	0–1	L

Season Stats

VfB Stuttgart		1. FSV Mainz 05
#4	Position	#10
62	Points	40
34	Played	34
18 / 8 / 8	W / D / L	10 / 10 / 14
71	Scored	44
49	Conceded	53
+22	GD	-9
1.82	PPG	1.18
53%	Win %	29%

Key Stats

67% Both Teams to Score
H2H (24 games)

58% Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history

32% Clean Sheets
VfB Stuttgart this season

12% Clean Sheets
1. FSV Mainz 05 this season

VfB Stuttgart are 4th (62 pts). 1. FSV Mainz 05 are 10th (40 pts).

Goal Timing (This Season)

VfB Stuttgart

0-15

2/2

16-30

3/2

31-45

3/3

46-60

2/2

61-75

2/1

76+

3/3

■ Scored ■ Conceded

1. FSV Mainz 05

0-15

4/1

16-30

1/1

31-45

3/1

46-60

1/2

61-75

–/1

76+

2/5

■ Scored ■ Conceded

Events

Match Events

0' The game is set. 1. FSV Mainz 05 kicks off things out of here…
With this win, VfB Stuttgart is likely to improve its situation in the overall team standings.

Lineups

VfB Stuttgart Lineups

1. FSV Mainz 05 Lineups

H2H

H2H Top Scorers

Player	Goals
Sehrou Guirassy	5
Silas Wamangituka	2
Sasa Kalajdzic	2
Jamie Leweling	2
Borna Sosa	2
Alexander Hack	2
Marcus Ingvartsen	2
Nadiem Amiri	1

Head to Head

VfB Stuttgart Form

2025-10-26 VfB Stuttgart 2–1 1. FSV Mainz 05 W 2025-10-23 Fenerbahce SK 1–0 VfB Stuttgart L 2025-10-18 VfL Wolfsburg 0–3 VfB Stuttgart W 2025-10-05 VfB Stuttgart 1–0 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 W 2025-10-02 FC Basel 1893 2–0 VfB Stuttgart L 2025-09-28 1. FC Koln 1–2 VfB Stuttgart W

1. FSV Mainz 05 Form

2025-10-26 VfB Stuttgart 2–1 1. FSV Mainz 05 L 2025-10-18 1. FSV Mainz 05 3–4 Bayer 04 Leverkusen L 2025-10-05 Hamburger SV 4–0 1. FSV Mainz 05 L 2025-09-27 1. FSV Mainz 05 0–2 Borussia Dortmund L 2025-09-20 FC Augsburg 1–4 1. FSV Mainz 05 W 2025-09-13 1. FSV Mainz 05 0–1 RB Leipzig L

Predictions

Prediction accuracy

3 / 4

2.24 VfB Stuttgart xG

Expected Goals

Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo

1.19 1. FSV Mainz 05 xG

I would bet for: Over 2.5 goals 66% + Both teams to score 62%

Match Result

✓ Correct

VfB Stuttgart61% Draw21% 1. FSV Mainz 0518%

Actual: VfB Stuttgart win

Both Teams to Score

✓ Correct

Yes62% 0% No38%

Avg goals/match: 3.43

Actual: Yes — both scored

Over / Under Goals

✓ O/U 2.5

Line	Over	Under
± 0.5	95%	5%
± 1.5	85%	15%
± 2.5	66%	34%
± 3.5	44%	56%
± 4.5	26%	74%

Double Chance

VfB Stuttgart or Draw

82%

Draw or 1. FSV Mainz 05

39%

VfB Stuttgart or 1. FSV Mainz 05

79%

Half-Time Result

✗ Wrong

VfB Stuttgart44% Draw39% 1. FSV Mainz 0517%

Actual: Draw at HT

Correct Score

✓ In top 12

1 – 1

9.4%

2 – 1

Actual

2 – 0

8.1%

3 – 1

6.9%

1 – 0

6.7%

3 – 0

5.9%

2 – 2

5.5%

1 – 2

0 – 0

4.6%

3 – 2

4.2%

4 – 1

3.9%

4 – 0

3.3%

Asian Handicap — VfB Stuttgart

Handicap	VfB Stuttgart covers	Push	1. FSV Mainz 05 covers
-2.5	20%	—	80%
-2	20%	18%	62%
-1.5	38%	—	62%
-1	38%	21%	40%
-0.5	60%	—	40%
+0.5	81%	—	19%
+1	81%	11%	8%
+1.5	92%	—	8%
+2	92%	5%	2%
+2.5	98%	—	2%

Clean Sheet

VfB Stuttgart keeps clean sheet

31% ✓

1. FSV Mainz 05 keeps clean sheet

12% ✓

Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.