Sagan Tosu FC vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima, J. League 2024 REGULAR SEASON

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J. League · 2024

Sagan Tosu FC

1 – 4

Full Time

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Sun 21 Jul 2024 · 10:00 UTC Ekimae Real Estate Stadium HT 45' · FT 45'

Kosuke Yamazaki 6' Y

Akito Fukuta 41' Y

Overview

Match Preview

Sagan Tosu FC vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima — J. League at Ekimae Real Estate Stadium.

Sagan Tosu FC 0 games · 0 pts (2026/27)
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 18 games · 30 pts (2026/27)

Standings

#	Team	P	Pts
1	Vissel Kobe	18	35
2	Cerezo Osaka FC	18	31
3	Nagoya Grampus	18	31
4	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	18	30
5	Gamba Osaka	18	28
6	Fagiano Okayama FC	18	26
7	Shimizu S-Pulse	18	24
8	Kyoto Sanga FC	18	23
9	V-Varen Nagasaki	18	21
10	Avispa Fukuoka	18	21
11	Kashima Antlers	18	45
12	FC Tokyo	18	37
13	FC Machida Zelvia	18	37
14	Kawasaki Frontale	18	28
15	Tokyo Verdy	18	28
16	Urawa Red Diamonds	18	25
17	Kashiwa Reysol	18	20
18	Yokohama F.Marinos	18	20
19	FC Mito Holly Hock	18	18
20	JEF United Ichihara Chiba	18	12

Head-to-Head

Sagan Tosu FC 16 games · Avg 2.1 goals Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Last 5 meetings

2024-07-21 Sagan Tosu FC 1–4 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2024-03-09 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 4–0 Sagan Tosu FC 2023-09-02 Sagan Tosu FC 0–2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2023-04-09 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1–0 Sagan Tosu FC 2022-11-05 Sagan Tosu FC 2–2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Recent Form

Sagan Tosu FC

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
21 Jul	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	H	1–4	L
14 Jul	Gamba Osaka	H	0–2	L
06 Jul	Albirex Niigata	A	4–3	W
03 Jul	Yokohama F.Marinos	A	1–0	W
30 Jun	Kashiwa Reysol	H	1–4	L
26 Jun	Cerezo Osaka FC	A	0–1	L

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
21 Jul	Sagan Tosu FC	A	4–1	W
14 Jul	Avispa Fukuoka	H	1–0	W
05 Jul	Vissel Kobe	H	1–3	L
29 Jun	Kawasaki Frontale	A	1–1	D
26 Jun	Albirex Niigata	H	1–1	D
22 Jun	Kashiwa Reysol	A	1–0	W

Key Stats

25% Both Teams to Score
H2H (16 games)

38% Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history

0% Clean Sheets
Sanfrecce Hiroshima this season

Goal Timing (This Season)

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

0-15

–/–

16-30

1/1

31-45

1/–

46-60

–/–

61-75

2/–

76+

–/–

■ Scored ■ Conceded

Events

Match Events

0' The referee blows the starting whistle. The fans are roaring. The teams are ready for the match. Sagan Tosu FC is hosting Sanfrecce Hiroshima for another epic battle.
5' has dominated the recent head-to-head record, winning 0 of the last 0 meetings.
6' Kosuke Yamazaki has been a danger all night but risks an early exit having now seen a card on 6.
11' Over 11 minutes have gone by without a meaningful attack. The supporters want more.
16' looks like a favorite considering 0 games won in last 0 matches with its main striker scoring goals.
21' Marcos Junior makes no mistake. The score reads 0-1 and Sanfrecce Hiroshima are in front.
26' The energy levels are beginning to show. Michael Skibbe might look to freshen things up shortly.
31' With 6 assists to his name this season, Shunki Higashi is clearly more than just a goal scorer for Sanfrecce Hiroshima.
36' We are waiting for someone to take the initiative. Who will be the first to commit to attack?
41' The referee has no hesitation. Akito Fukuta is booked for Sagan Tosu FC — card on 41.
46' Marcelo Ryan does the damage! The net is bulging and Sagan Tosu FC surge ahead!
51' While players are taking a pause, let’s have a look at their stats. The teams met 0 times this season with winning -% of all matches.
56' Japan international Makoto Mitsuta has been a key figure this campaign — 0 goals and 0 assists in the Array this season.
61' Sanfrecce Hiroshima make a change. Douglas Vieira trudges off to be replaced by Makoto Mitsuta on 61 minutes.
64' Cayman Togashi gets the nod from Sagan Tosu FC. He replaces Vykintas Slivka and will look to change the dynamic.
69' The referee is likely to let players tackle, as he already missed some meaty challenges during opening seconds. He is still to establish what should not be done by the players and what is acceptable on the pitch. It’s going to be a tough game for Hayato Araki suffering a number of foals already.
71' Goal! Taishi Matsumoto scores his 10 goal in 335 matches.
76' Ayumu Yokoyama has certainly something to prove this evening. He made 0 appearances with only 0 goals this season.
78' Katsunori Ueebisu is replacing Tae-hyeon Kim for the Sagan Tosu FC side.
82' Time for substitution for Sagan Tosu FC. Hikaru Nakahara is replaced by Yuki Horigome.
86' The supporters are chanting for Kohei Tezuka. He replaces Ayumu Yokoyama on 86 minute.
87' What composure from Yuki Ohashi! The Japan international strokes it home. 1-3.
90' The whistle greets Shunki Higashi as he departs to be replaced by Takaaki Shichi.
With this win, Sanfrecce Hiroshima is likely to improve its situation in the overall team standings.

Lineups

Sagan Tosu FC Lineups

Starting XI

6
Akito Fukuta ↓ Hiroshi Kiyotake 86'
77
Vykintas Slivka ↓ Cayman Togashi 64'
99
Marcelo Ryan
88
Yoichi Naganuma
71
Il-kyu Park
8
Hikaru Nakahara ↓ Yuki Horigome 82'
42
Wataru Harada
2
Kosuke Yamazaki
5
So Kawahara
13
Ayumu Yokoyama ↓ Kohei Tezuka 86'
20
Tae-hyeon Kim ↓ Katsunori Ueebisu 78'

Bench

22
Cayman Togashi ↑ 64'
7
Kohei Tezuka ↑ 86'
55
Hiroshi Kiyotake ↑ 86'
16
Katsunori Ueebisu ↑ 78'
21
Yuki Horigome ↑ 82'
32
Keisuke Sakaiya
1
Arnau Riera

Coach Kenta Kawai

Sanfrecce Hiroshima Lineups

Starting XI

10
Marcos Junior ↓ Mutsuki Kato 61'
1
Keisuke Osako
14
Taishi Matsumoto ↓ Toshihiro Aoyama 90'
24
Shunki Higashi ↓ Takaaki Shichi 90'
77
Yuki Ohashi
33
Tsukasa Shiotani
9
Douglas Vieira ↓ Makoto Mitsuta 61'
4
Hayato Araki
13
Naoto Arai ↓ Yusuke Chajima 90'
15
Shuto Nakano
27
Osamu Henry Iyoha

Bench

22
Goro Kawanami
6
Toshihiro Aoyama ↑ 90'
16
Takaaki Shichi ↑ 90'
25
Yusuke Chajima ↑ 90'
11
Makoto Mitsuta ↑ 61'
35
Yotaro Nakajima
51
Mutsuki Kato ↑ 61'

Coach Michael Skibbe

H2H

H2H Top Scorers

Player	Goals
Makoto Mitsuta	2
Douglas Vieira	2
Pieros Sotiriou	2
Marcelo Ryan	1
Patric	1
Junior Santos	1
Marcos Junior	1
Patric	1

Head to Head

Sagan Tosu FC Form

2024-07-21 Sagan Tosu FC 1–4 Sanfrecce Hiroshima L 2024-07-14 Sagan Tosu FC 0–2 Gamba Osaka L 2024-07-06 Albirex Niigata 3–4 Sagan Tosu FC W 2024-07-03 Yokohama F.Marinos 0–1 Sagan Tosu FC W 2024-06-30 Sagan Tosu FC 1–4 Kashiwa Reysol L 2024-06-26 Cerezo Osaka FC 1–0 Sagan Tosu FC L

Sanfrecce Hiroshima Form

2024-07-21 Sagan Tosu FC 1–4 Sanfrecce Hiroshima W 2024-07-14 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1–0 Avispa Fukuoka W 2024-07-05 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1–3 Vissel Kobe L 2024-06-29 Kawasaki Frontale 1–1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima D 2024-06-26 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1–1 Albirex Niigata D 2024-06-22 Kashiwa Reysol 0–1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima W

Predictions

Prediction accuracy

3 / 4

1 Sagan Tosu FC xG

Expected Goals

Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo

1.96 Sanfrecce Hiroshima xG

I would bet for: Over 2.5 goals 56%

Match Result

✓ Correct

Sagan Tosu FC21% Draw25% Sanfrecce Hiroshima54%

Actual: Sanfrecce Hiroshima win

Both Teams to Score

✓ Correct

Yes54% 0% No46%

Avg goals/match: 2.96

Actual: Yes — both scored

Over / Under Goals

✓ O/U 2.5

Line	Over	Under
± 0.5	93%	7%
± 1.5	79%	21%
± 2.5	56%	44%
± 3.5	34%	66%
± 4.5	18%	82%

Double Chance

Sagan Tosu FC or Draw

45%

Draw or Sanfrecce Hiroshima

79%

Sagan Tosu FC or Sanfrecce Hiroshima

75%

Half-Time Result

✗ Wrong

Sagan Tosu FC15% Draw43% Sanfrecce Hiroshima42%

Actual: Sanfrecce Hiroshima win at HT

Correct Score

✓ In top 12

1 – 1

11%

0 – 2

9.9%

1 – 2

9.6%

0 – 1

9.5%

0 – 0

6.9%

0 – 3

6.3%

1 – 3

6.3%

2 – 1

4.9%

2 – 2

4.8%

1 – 0

4.4%

2 – 3

3.2%

1 – 4

Actual

Asian Handicap — Sagan Tosu FC

Handicap	Sagan Tosu FC covers	Push	Sanfrecce Hiroshima covers
-2.5	2%	—	98%
-2	2%	5%	94%
-1.5	6%	—	94%
-1	6%	11%	82%
-0.5	18%	—	82%
+0.5	42%	—	58%
+1	42%	23%	35%
+1.5	65%	—	35%
+2	65%	18%	17%
+2.5	83%	—	17%

Clean Sheet

Sagan Tosu FC keeps clean sheet

15% ✓

Sanfrecce Hiroshima keeps clean sheet

38% ✓

Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.