Sagan Tosu FC vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima, J. League 2024 REGULAR SEASON

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J. League · 2024

Sagan Tosu FC

1 – 4

Full Time

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Sun 21 Jul 2024 · 10:00 UTC Ekimae Real Estate Stadium HT 45' · FT 45'

Kosuke Yamazaki 6' Y

Akito Fukuta 41' Y

Overview

Match Preview

Sagan Tosu FC vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima — J. League at Ekimae Real Estate Stadium.

Sagan Tosu FC 0 games · 0 pts (2026/27)
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 18 games · 30 pts (2026/27)

Standings

#	Team	P	Pts
1	Vissel Kobe	18	35
2	Cerezo Osaka FC	18	31
3	Nagoya Grampus	18	31
4	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	18	30
5	Gamba Osaka	18	28
6	Fagiano Okayama FC	18	26
7	Shimizu S-Pulse	18	24
8	Kyōto Sanga FC	18	23
9	V-Varen Nagasaki	18	21
10	Avispa Fukuoka	18	21
11	Kashima Antlers	18	45
12	FC Tōkyō	18	37
13	FC Machida Zelvia	18	37
14	Kawasaki Frontale	18	28
15	Tōkyō Verdy	18	28
16	Urawa Red Diamonds	18	25
17	Kashiwa Reysol	18	20
18	Yokohama F·Marinos	18	20
19	FC Mito Holly Hock	18	18
20	JEF United Ichihara Chiba	18	12

Head-to-Head

Sagan Tosu FC 16 games · Avg 2.1 goals Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Last 5 meetings

2024-07-21 Sagan Tosu FC 1–4 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2024-03-09 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 4–0 Sagan Tosu FC 2023-09-02 Sagan Tosu FC 0–2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2023-04-09 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1–0 Sagan Tosu FC 2022-11-05 Sagan Tosu FC 2–2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Recent Form

Sagan Tosu FC

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
21 Jul	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	H	1–4	L
14 Jul	Gamba Osaka	H	0–2	L
06 Jul	Albirex Niigata	A	4–3	W
03 Jul	Yokohama F·Marinos	A	1–0	W
30 Jun	Kashiwa Reysol	H	1–4	L
26 Jun	Cerezo Osaka FC	A	0–1	L

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
21 Jul	Sagan Tosu FC	A	4–1	W
14 Jul	Avispa Fukuoka	H	1–0	W
05 Jul	Vissel Kobe	H	1–3	L
29 Jun	Kawasaki Frontale	A	1–1	D
26 Jun	Albirex Niigata	H	1–1	D
22 Jun	Kashiwa Reysol	A	1–0	W

Key Stats

25% Both Teams to Score
H2H (16 games)

38% Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history

43% Clean Sheets
Sanfrecce Hiroshima this season

Goal Timing (This Season)

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

0-15

1/1

16-30

3/2

31-45

3/–

46-60

2/2

61-75

5/–

76+

3/1

■ Scored ■ Conceded

Top Scorers (This Season)

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Akito Suzuki	6 G	2 A
Shun Ayukawa	3 G	1 A
Sebastien Haller	3 G	1 A
Mutsuki Kato	2 G	3 A
Shuto Nakano	2 G	1 A

Events

Match Events

0' It’s Showtime! The match between Sagan Tosu FC and Sanfrecce Hiroshima is underway.
5' Spectators do not have much to choose from both teams. The sides had several scoring chances but they still need a bit more than just a sight of a goal.
6' Poor challenge from Kosuke Yamazaki. The referee spots it immediately and shows the card.
11' A tactical chess match is unfolding here. The question is which manager blinks first.
16' named a earlier, and opted for a in response. A fascinating tactical duel is developing.
21' Goal! Marcos Junior scores his 48 goal in 398 matches.
26' It looks surprising Sagan Tosu FC does not make any changes. Wataru Harada has some obvious troubles when approaching to the goal.
31' Tae-hyeon Kim is a natural and has been asked to do a very specific job for Sanfrecce Hiroshima tonight.
36' Hikaru Nakahara has been relatively quiet despite scoring 7 goals in his last 376 appearances.
41' Akito Fukuta picks up a card and will need to be extremely careful for the remainder of this match.
46' The Brazil Marcelo Ryan breaks the deadlock on 46 minutes. 1-1!
51' Over 51 minutes have gone by without a meaningful attack. The supporters want more.
56' Tsukasa Shiotani has been disciplined this evening — perhaps mindful of those 0 cards already picked up this season.
61' Sanfrecce Hiroshima ring the changes. Douglas Vieira has done his job and it is now time for Makoto Mitsuta to step up.
64' Another change for Sagan Tosu FC made on 64 minute. Vykintas Slivka leaves to be changed by Cayman Togashi.
69' Sagan Tosu FC is showing some good football. However, Sagan Tosu FC are ready to play back every minute. It might result in some problems for the home side. The game will hardly remain goalless.
71' Sensational shot from Taishi Matsumoto. Sanfrecce Hiroshima is back in the lead.
76' Spectators are craving for more action. Both teams play very cautiously. They need to put some more energy.
78' A tactical swap from Sagan Tosu FC — Katsunori Ueebisu on, Tae-hyeon Kim off on 78 minutes.
82' Yuki Horigome gets the nod from Sagan Tosu FC. He replaces Hikaru Nakahara and will look to change the dynamic.
86' Another change for Sagan Tosu FC made on 86 minute. Ayumu Yokoyama leaves to be changed by Kohei Tezuka.
87' GOAL! Yuki Ohashi fires home to make it 1-3!
90' It is a substitution in Sanfrecce Hiroshima team. Shunki Higashi is replaced by Takaaki Shichi on 90 minute.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima celebrates a vital win. Three points that could prove pivotal come season's end.

Lineups

Sagan Tosu FC Lineups

Starting XI

6
Akito Fukuta ↓ Hiroshi Kiyotake 86'
77
Vykintas Slivka ↓ Cayman Togashi 64'
99
Marcelo Ryan
88
Yoichi Naganuma
71
Il-kyu Park
8
Hikaru Nakahara ↓ Yuki Horigome 82'
42
Wataru Harada
2
Kosuke Yamazaki
5
So Kawahara
13
Ayumu Yokoyama ↓ Kohei Tezuka 86'
20
Tae-hyeon Kim ↓ Katsunori Ueebisu 78'

Bench

22
Cayman Togashi ↑ 64'
7
Kohei Tezuka ↑ 86'
55
Hiroshi Kiyotake ↑ 86'
16
Katsunori Ueebisu ↑ 78'
21
Yuki Horigome ↑ 82'
32
Keisuke Sakaiya
1
Arnau Riera

Coach Kenta Kawai

Sanfrecce Hiroshima Lineups

Starting XI

10
Marcos Junior ↓ Mutsuki Kato 61'
1
Keisuke Osako
14
Taishi Matsumoto ↓ Toshihiro Aoyama 90'
24
Shunki Higashi ↓ Takaaki Shichi 90'
77
Yuki Ohashi
33
Tsukasa Shiotani
9
Douglas Vieira ↓ Makoto Mitsuta 61'
4
Hayato Araki
13
Naoto Arai ↓ Yusuke Chajima 90'
15
Shuto Nakano
27
Osamu Henry Iyoha

Bench

22
Goro Kawanami
6
Toshihiro Aoyama ↑ 90'
16
Takaaki Shichi ↑ 90'
25
Yusuke Chajima ↑ 90'
11
Makoto Mitsuta ↑ 61'
35
Yotaro Nakajima
51
Mutsuki Kato ↑ 61'

Coach Michael Skibbe

H2H

H2H Top Scorers

Player	Goals
Makoto Mitsuta	2
Douglas Vieira	2
Pieros Sotiriou	2
Noriyoshi Sakai	1
Marcelo Ryan	1
Patric	1
Junior Santos	1
Marcos Junior	1

Head to Head

Sagan Tosu FC Form

2024-07-21 Sagan Tosu FC 1–4 Sanfrecce Hiroshima L 2024-07-14 Sagan Tosu FC 0–2 Gamba Osaka L 2024-07-06 Albirex Niigata 3–4 Sagan Tosu FC W 2024-07-03 Yokohama F·Marinos 0–1 Sagan Tosu FC W 2024-06-30 Sagan Tosu FC 1–4 Kashiwa Reysol L 2024-06-26 Cerezo Osaka FC 1–0 Sagan Tosu FC L

Sanfrecce Hiroshima Form

2024-07-21 Sagan Tosu FC 1–4 Sanfrecce Hiroshima W 2024-07-14 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1–0 Avispa Fukuoka W 2024-07-05 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1–3 Vissel Kobe L 2024-06-29 Kawasaki Frontale 1–1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima D 2024-06-26 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1–1 Albirex Niigata D 2024-06-22 Kashiwa Reysol 0–1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima W

Predictions

Prediction accuracy

3 / 4

1 Sagan Tosu FC xG

Expected Goals

Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo

1.96 Sanfrecce Hiroshima xG

I would bet for: Over 2.5 goals 56%

Match Result

✓ Correct

Sagan Tosu FC21% Draw25% Sanfrecce Hiroshima54%

Actual: Sanfrecce Hiroshima win

Both Teams to Score

✓ Correct

Yes54% 0% No46%

Avg goals/match: 2.96

Actual: Yes — both scored

Over / Under Goals

✓ O/U 2.5

Line	Over	Under
± 0.5	93%	7%
± 1.5	79%	21%
± 2.5	56%	44%
± 3.5	34%	66%
± 4.5	18%	82%

Double Chance

Sagan Tosu FC or Draw

45%

Draw or Sanfrecce Hiroshima

79%

Sagan Tosu FC or Sanfrecce Hiroshima

75%

Half-Time Result

✗ Wrong

Sagan Tosu FC15% Draw43% Sanfrecce Hiroshima42%

Actual: Sanfrecce Hiroshima win at HT

Correct Score

✓ In top 12

1 – 1

11%

0 – 2

9.9%

1 – 2

9.6%

0 – 1

9.5%

0 – 0

6.9%

0 – 3

6.3%

1 – 3

6.3%

2 – 1

4.9%

2 – 2

4.8%

1 – 0

4.4%

2 – 3

3.2%

1 – 4

Actual

Asian Handicap — Sagan Tosu FC

Handicap	Sagan Tosu FC covers	Push	Sanfrecce Hiroshima covers
-2.5	2%	—	98%
-2	2%	5%	94%
-1.5	6%	—	94%
-1	6%	11%	82%
-0.5	18%	—	82%
+0.5	42%	—	58%
+1	42%	23%	35%
+1.5	65%	—	35%
+2	65%	18%	17%
+2.5	83%	—	17%

Clean Sheet

Sagan Tosu FC keeps clean sheet

15% ✓

Sanfrecce Hiroshima keeps clean sheet

38% ✓

Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.