Melbourne Victory FC vs Adelaide United FC, A League 2024-25 REGULAR SEASON

Refresh

A League · 2024-25

Melbourne Victory FC

5 – 3

Full Time

Adelaide United FC

Sat 29 Mar 2025 · 08:35 UTC AAMI Park HT 45' · FT 45'

Y 51' Panagiotis Kikianis

Bruno Fornaroli 78' Y

Y 87' Zach Clough

Alex Badolato 90' Y

Overview

Match Preview

Melbourne Victory FC vs Adelaide United FC — A League at AAMI Park.

Melbourne Victory FC 26 games · 40 pts (2025/26)
Adelaide United FC 26 games · 43 pts (2025/26)

Match Details

Referee Shaun Evans
Referee

18 games this season 🟨 0.0/game ⚽ 3.1 goals/game

Standings

#	Team	P	Pts
1	Newcastle United Jets FC	26	48
2	Adelaide United FC	26	43
3	Auckland FC	26	42
4	Melbourne Victory FC	26	40
5	Sydney FC	26	39
6	Melbourne City FC	26	38
7	Macarthur FC	26	34
8	Wellington Phoenix FC	26	33
9	Central Coast Mariners FC	26	32
10	Perth Glory FC	26	31
11	Brisbane Roar FC	26	26
12	Western Sydney Wanderers FC	26	21

Head-to-Head

Melbourne Victory FC 24 games · Avg 2.8 goals Adelaide United FC

Last 5 meetings

2025-03-29 Melbourne Victory FC 5–3 Adelaide United FC 2025-01-18 Adelaide United FC 3–2 Melbourne Victory FC 2024-03-09 Adelaide United FC 1–2 Melbourne Victory FC 2023-12-30 Melbourne Victory FC 2–0 Adelaide United FC 2023-11-04 Melbourne Victory FC 1–1 Adelaide United FC

Recent Form

Melbourne Victory FC

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
29 Mar	Adelaide United FC	H	5–3	W
15 Mar	Western Sydney Wanderers FC	A	2–4	L
08 Mar	Central Coast Mariners FC	H	3–0	W
01 Mar	Brisbane Roar FC	A	1–1	D
22 Feb	Melbourne City FC	H	2–2	D
14 Feb	Wellington Phoenix FC	H	1–0	W

Adelaide United FC

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
29 Mar	Melbourne Victory FC	A	3–5	L
14 Mar	Macarthur FC	H	4–5	L
08 Mar	Brisbane Roar FC	H	1–1	D
01 Mar	Auckland FC	A	4–4	D
23 Feb	Western United FC	A	0–3	L
15 Feb	Newcastle United Jets FC	H	1–2	L

Season Stats

Melbourne Victory FC		Adelaide United FC
#4	Position	#2
40	Points	43
26	Played	26
11 / 7 / 8	W / D / L	12 / 7 / 7
44	Scored	46
33	Conceded	36
+11	GD	+10
1.54	PPG	1.65
42%	Win %	46%

Key Stats

63% Both Teams to Score
H2H (24 games)

54% Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history

23% Clean Sheets
Melbourne Victory FC this season

11% Clean Sheets
Adelaide United FC this season

Melbourne Victory FC are 4th (40 pts). Adelaide United FC are 2nd (43 pts).

Goal Timing (This Season)

Melbourne Victory FC

0-15

–/–

16-30

1/1

31-45

2/1

46-60

1/–

61-75

1/–

76+

1/3

■ Scored ■ Conceded

Adelaide United FC

0-15

–/1

16-30

1/2

31-45

–/1

46-60

–/2

61-75

4/–

76+

3/2

■ Scored ■ Conceded

Top Scorers (This Season)

Melbourne Victory FC

Nikolaos Vergos	7 G	1 A
Clarismario	6 G
Mata	5 G	12 A
Keegan Jelacic	5 G	2 A
Charles Nduka	5 G	2 A

Adelaide United FC

Luka Jovanovic	11 G	3 A
Johnny Yull	4 G	5 A
Ethan Alagich	4 G	4 A
Ryan Kitto	3 G	1 A

Events

Match Events

0' That's the starting whistle at AAMI Park. Ninety minutes of football awaits between Melbourne Victory FC and Adelaide United FC.
5' Reno Piscopo is a natural and has been asked to do a very specific job for Adelaide United FC tonight.
10' Adelaide United FC are keeping things exceptionally tight at the back. It will take something special to break them down.
12' GOAL! Johnny Yull fires home to make it 0-1!
17' Matchday of the Array and both teams know exactly what is at stake tonight.
22' The tempo has dropped considerably in the last few minutes. Arthur Diles will be considering his options from the bench.
27' Nishan Velupillay has been relatively quiet despite scoring 16 goals in his last 210 appearances.
29' Brilliant from the ! Daniel Arzani makes it 1-1 with a superb finish on 29.
34' The teams are not in a rush to score plenty of goals. It might look strange considering Melbourne Victory FC that had 210 games and scored 299 goals.
39' Nishan Velupillay is having a superb {COMPETITION} campaign — that is 1 goals this season for the .
44' Not even hints on scoring a goal over the last 44 minutes.
46' Fresh legs for Adelaide United FC! Isaias Sanchez comes on to replace Jay Barnett.
47' Assisted by Ethan Alagich with the perfectly-timed delivery and Archie Goodwin makes no mistake. 2-2!
51' Poor challenge from Panagiotis Kikianis. The referee spots it immediately and shows the card.
56' Adelaide United FC fans have not had much to celebrate tonight. Their side is struggling to get forward.
57' A goal from the England international Zach Clough! He fires home on 57 to make it 2-3!
62' Jordi Valadon has so much to prove this time. He replaces Fabian Monge on 62 minute.
67' Melbourne Victory FC is showing some good football. However, Melbourne Victory FC are ready to play back every minute. It might result in some problems for the home side. The game will hardly remain goalless.
71' What composure from Daniel Arzani! The Australia international strokes it home. 3-3.
75' Another change for Melbourne Victory FC made on 75 minute. Reno Piscopo leaves to be changed by Alex Badolato.
76' A tactical swap from Adelaide United FC — Luka Jovanovic on, Archie Goodwin off on 76 minutes.
78' That looks like a foul for a card for Bruno Fornaroli.
83' It looks like no one’s ball. Melbourne Victory FC is used to counterattacking playing. None of the sides are ready to take the lead.
84' The crowd applauds Bruno Fornaroli as he leaves the pitch. Nikolaos Vergos steps in for Melbourne Victory FC.
87' The referee shows Adelaide United FC player a card on 87.
88' Nikolaos Vergos does the damage! The net is bulging and Melbourne Victory FC surge ahead!
90' Nikolaos Vergos with the second goal in the match!
90' Alex Badolato was booked on 90.
Another three points for Melbourne Victory FC.

Lineups

Melbourne Victory FC Lineups

Starting XI

8
Zinedine Machach
4
Lachlan Jackson ↓ Brendan Hamill 46'
21
Roderick Miranda
7
Daniel Arzani
1
Mitch Langerak
10
Bruno Fornaroli ↓ Nikolaos Vergos 84'
27
Reno Piscopo ↓ Alex Badolato 75'
17
Nishan Velupillay
16
Joshua Inserra ↓ Joshua Rawlins 84'
18
Fabian Monge ↓ Jordi Valadon 62'
28
Kasey Bos

Bench

5
Brendan Hamill ↑ 46'
22
Joshua Rawlins ↑ 84'
25
Jack Duncan
23
Alex Badolato ↑ 75'
14
Jordi Valadon ↑ 62'
19
Jing Reec
9
Nikolaos Vergos ↑ 84'

Coach Arthur Diles

Adelaide United FC Lineups

Starting XI

Bench

17
Ben Folami
10
Zach Clough ↑ 46'
21
Javi Lopez
40
Ethan Cox
8
Isaias Sanchez ↑ 46'
9
Luka Jovanovic ↑ 76'
44
Ryan White

H2H

H2H Top Scorers

Player	Goals
Bruno Fornaroli	6
Craig Goodwin	4
Marco Rojas	4
Besart Berisha	3
Hiroshi Ibusuki	3
Stefan Mauk	3
Ola Toivonen	2
Leroy George	2

Head to Head

Melbourne Victory FC Form

2025-03-29 Melbourne Victory FC 5–3 Adelaide United FC W 2025-03-15 Western Sydney Wanderers FC 4–2 Melbourne Victory FC L 2025-03-08 Melbourne Victory FC 3–0 Central Coast Mariners FC W 2025-03-01 Brisbane Roar FC 1–1 Melbourne Victory FC D 2025-02-22 Melbourne Victory FC 2–2 Melbourne City FC D 2025-02-14 Melbourne Victory FC 1–0 Wellington Phoenix FC W

Adelaide United FC Form

2025-03-29 Melbourne Victory FC 5–3 Adelaide United FC L 2025-03-14 Adelaide United FC 4–5 Macarthur FC L 2025-03-08 Adelaide United FC 1–1 Brisbane Roar FC D 2025-03-01 Auckland FC 4–4 Adelaide United FC D 2025-02-23 Western United FC 3–0 Adelaide United FC L 2025-02-15 Adelaide United FC 1–2 Newcastle United Jets FC L

Predictions

Prediction accuracy

4 / 4

2.6 Melbourne Victory FC xG

Expected Goals

Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo

1.72 Adelaide United FC xG

I would bet for: Over 2.5 goals 79% + Both teams to score 75%

Match Result

✓ Correct

Melbourne Victory FC58% Draw20% Adelaide United FC22%

Actual: Melbourne Victory FC win

Both Teams to Score

✓ Correct

Yes75% 0% No25%

Avg goals/match: 4.32

Actual: Yes — both scored

Over / Under Goals

✓ O/U 2.5

Line	Over	Under
± 0.5	98%	2%
± 1.5	93%	7%
± 2.5	79%	21%
± 3.5	61%	39%
± 4.5	43%	57%

Double Chance

Melbourne Victory FC or Draw

78%

Draw or Adelaide United FC

42%

Melbourne Victory FC or Adelaide United FC

80%

Half-Time Result

✓ Correct

Melbourne Victory FC43% Draw35% Adelaide United FC22%

Actual: Melbourne Victory FC win at HT

Correct Score

✗ 5–3 not predicted

5 – 3

Actual

2 – 1

7.6%

1 – 1

6.7%

3 – 1

6.5%

2 – 2

6.4%

3 – 2

5.5%

1 – 2

5.1%

2 – 0

4.7%

4 – 1

4.2%

3 – 0

3.9%

2 – 3

3.6%

4 – 2

3.6%

1 – 0

3.2%

Asian Handicap — Melbourne Victory FC

Handicap	Melbourne Victory FC covers	Push	Adelaide United FC covers
-2.5	21%	—	79%
-2	21%	16%	63%
-1.5	37%	—	63%
-1	37%	19%	44%
-0.5	56%	—	44%
+0.5	75%	—	25%
+1	75%	12%	12%
+1.5	88%	—	12%
+2	88%	7%	5%
+2.5	95%	—	5%

Clean Sheet

Melbourne Victory FC keeps clean sheet

19% ✓

Adelaide United FC keeps clean sheet

8% ✓

Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.