Melbourne Victory FC vs Adelaide United FC, A League 2024-25 REGULAR SEASON

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A League · 2024-25

Melbourne Victory FC

5 – 3

Full Time

Adelaide United FC

Sat 29 Mar 2025 · 08:35 UTC AAMI Park HT 45' · FT 45'

Y 51' Panagiotis Kikianis

Bruno Fornaroli 78' Y

Y 87' Zach Clough

Alex Badolato 90' Y

Overview

Match Preview

Melbourne Victory FC vs Adelaide United FC — A League at AAMI Park.

Melbourne Victory FC 26 games · 40 pts (2025/26)
Adelaide United FC 26 games · 43 pts (2025/26)

Match Details

Referee Shaun Evans
Referee

18 games this season 🟨 0.0/game ⚽ 3.1 goals/game

Standings

#	Team	P	Pts
1	Newcastle United Jets FC	26	48
2	Adelaide United FC	26	43
3	Auckland FC	26	42
4	Melbourne Victory FC	26	40
5	Sydney FC	26	39
6	Melbourne City FC	26	38
7	Macarthur FC	26	34
8	Wellington Phoenix FC	26	33
9	Central Coast Mariners FC	26	32
10	Perth Glory FC	26	31
11	Brisbane Roar FC	26	26
12	Western Sydney Wanderers FC	26	21

Head-to-Head

Melbourne Victory FC 24 games · Avg 2.8 goals Adelaide United FC

Last 5 meetings

2025-03-29 Melbourne Victory FC 5–3 Adelaide United FC 2025-01-18 Adelaide United FC 3–2 Melbourne Victory FC 2024-03-09 Adelaide United FC 1–2 Melbourne Victory FC 2023-12-30 Melbourne Victory FC 2–0 Adelaide United FC 2023-11-04 Melbourne Victory FC 1–1 Adelaide United FC

Recent Form

Melbourne Victory FC

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
29 Mar	Adelaide United FC	H	5–3	W
15 Mar	Western Sydney Wanderers FC	A	2–4	L
08 Mar	Central Coast Mariners FC	H	3–0	W
01 Mar	Brisbane Roar FC	A	1–1	D
22 Feb	Melbourne City FC	H	2–2	D
14 Feb	Wellington Phoenix FC	H	1–0	W

Adelaide United FC

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
29 Mar	Melbourne Victory FC	A	3–5	L
14 Mar	Macarthur FC	H	4–5	L
08 Mar	Brisbane Roar FC	H	1–1	D
01 Mar	Auckland FC	A	4–4	D
23 Feb	Western United FC	A	0–3	L
15 Feb	Newcastle United Jets FC	H	1–2	L

Season Stats

Melbourne Victory FC		Adelaide United FC
#4	Position	#2
40	Points	43
26	Played	26
11 / 7 / 8	W / D / L	12 / 7 / 7
44	Scored	46
33	Conceded	36
+11	GD	+10
1.54	PPG	1.65
42%	Win %	46%

Key Stats

63% Both Teams to Score
H2H (24 games)

54% Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history

23% Clean Sheets
Melbourne Victory FC this season

11% Clean Sheets
Adelaide United FC this season

Melbourne Victory FC are 4th (40 pts). Adelaide United FC are 2nd (43 pts).

Goal Timing (This Season)

Melbourne Victory FC

0-15

–/–

16-30

1/1

31-45

2/1

46-60

1/–

61-75

1/–

76+

1/3

■ Scored ■ Conceded

Adelaide United FC

0-15

–/1

16-30

1/2

31-45

–/1

46-60

–/2

61-75

4/–

76+

3/2

■ Scored ■ Conceded

Top Scorers (This Season)

Melbourne Victory FC

Nikolaos Vergos	7 G	1 A
Clarismario	6 G
Mata	5 G	12 A
Keegan Jelacic	5 G	2 A
Charles Nduka	5 G	2 A

Adelaide United FC

Luka Jovanovic	11 G	3 A
Johnny Yull	4 G	5 A
Ethan Alagich	4 G	4 A
Ryan Kitto	3 G	1 A

Events

Match Events

0' Melbourne Victory FC have kicked off against Adelaide United FC. Both sides are eager to make an early statement.
5' The referee is likely to let players tackle, as he already missed some meaty challenges during opening seconds. He is still to establish what should not be done by the players and what is acceptable on the pitch. It’s going to be a tough game for Jay Barnett suffering a number of foals already.
10' The home supporters are growing impatient. Melbourne Victory FC must find a spark to ignite this game.
12' Adelaide United FC is taking the lead after the goal scored by Johnny Yull on 12.
17' Austin Ayoubi has certainly something to prove this evening. He made 26 appearances with only 0 goals this season.
22' Adelaide United FC is showing some good football. However, Adelaide United FC are ready to play back every minute. It might result in some problems for the home side. The game will hardly remain goalless.
27' It looks like no one’s ball. Melbourne Victory FC is used to counterattacking playing. None of the sides are ready to take the lead.
29' Daniel Arzani has been a constant threat and now delivers with a goal on 29 minutes.
34' Roderick Miranda, a Portugal , has 4 bookings this season and will need to keep his discipline tonight.
39' GOAL! Nishan Velupillay scores on 39. Assisted by Zinedine Machach
44' James Delianov needs to be pretty careful with his discipline considering 0 Yellow cards this season.
46' The Adelaide United FC manager makes a substitution. Jay Barnett departs to be replaced by Isaias Sanchez.
47' GOAL! Archie Goodwin scores on 47. Assisted by Ethan Alagich
51' The referee calls foul for Panagiotis Kikianis. He receives a card.
56' It’s high time made some changes to put the his team’s game back to action.
57' Clinical. Composed. Brilliant. Zach Clough makes it 2-3.
62' A tactical swap from Melbourne Victory FC — Jordi Valadon on, Fabian Monge off on 62 minutes.
67' Supporters expect more eagerness from Lachlan Jackson, as he is very good at scoring at AAMI Park with 0 goals in the last 0 games.
71' The Australia Daniel Arzani breaks the deadlock on 71 minutes. 3-3!
75' The whistle greets Reno Piscopo as he departs to be replaced by Alex Badolato.
76' A tactical swap from Adelaide United FC — Luka Jovanovic on, Archie Goodwin off on 76 minutes.
78' The referee calls foul for Bruno Fornaroli. He receives a card.
83' Melbourne Victory FC currently sit in the Array table. A result here could be decisive in the race for the top positions.
84' Nikolaos Vergos has so much to prove this time. He replaces Bruno Fornaroli on 84 minute.
87' The referee calls foul for Zach Clough. He receives a card.
88' Sensational shot from Nikolaos Vergos. Melbourne Victory FC is back in the lead.
90' Nikolaos Vergos does the damage! The net is bulging and Melbourne Victory FC surge ahead!
90' Melbourne Victory FC receives a card for a hard tackle on 90.
Hope, you loved the show. Another epic battle is over with the score 5-3.

Lineups

Melbourne Victory FC Lineups

Starting XI

8
Zinedine Machach
4
Lachlan Jackson ↓ Brendan Hamill 46'
21
Roderick Miranda
7
Daniel Arzani
1
Mitch Langerak
10
Bruno Fornaroli ↓ Nikolaos Vergos 84'
27
Reno Piscopo ↓ Alex Badolato 75'
17
Nishan Velupillay
16
Joshua Inserra ↓ Joshua Rawlins 84'
18
Fabian Monge ↓ Jordi Valadon 62'
28
Kasey Bos

Bench

5
Brendan Hamill ↑ 46'
22
Joshua Rawlins ↑ 84'
25
Jack Duncan
23
Alex Badolato ↑ 75'
14
Jordi Valadon ↑ 62'
19
Jing Reec
9
Nikolaos Vergos ↑ 84'

Coach Arthur Diles

Adelaide United FC Lineups

Starting XI

Bench

17
Ben Folami
10
Zach Clough ↑ 46'
21
Javi Lopez
40
Ethan Cox
8
Isaias Sanchez ↑ 46'
9
Luka Jovanovic ↑ 76'
44
Ryan White

H2H

H2H Top Scorers

Player	Goals
Bruno Fornaroli	6
Craig Goodwin	4
Marco Rojas	4
Hiroshi Ibusuki	3
Stefan Mauk	3
Besart Berisha	3
Leroy George	2
Daniel Arzani	2

Head to Head

Melbourne Victory FC Form

2025-03-29 Melbourne Victory FC 5–3 Adelaide United FC W 2025-03-15 Western Sydney Wanderers FC 4–2 Melbourne Victory FC L 2025-03-08 Melbourne Victory FC 3–0 Central Coast Mariners FC W 2025-03-01 Brisbane Roar FC 1–1 Melbourne Victory FC D 2025-02-22 Melbourne Victory FC 2–2 Melbourne City FC D 2025-02-14 Melbourne Victory FC 1–0 Wellington Phoenix FC W

Adelaide United FC Form

2025-03-29 Melbourne Victory FC 5–3 Adelaide United FC L 2025-03-14 Adelaide United FC 4–5 Macarthur FC L 2025-03-08 Adelaide United FC 1–1 Brisbane Roar FC D 2025-03-01 Auckland FC 4–4 Adelaide United FC D 2025-02-23 Western United FC 3–0 Adelaide United FC L 2025-02-15 Adelaide United FC 1–2 Newcastle United Jets FC L

Predictions

Prediction accuracy

4 / 4

2.6 Melbourne Victory FC xG

Expected Goals

Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo

1.72 Adelaide United FC xG

I would bet for: Over 2.5 goals 79% + Both teams to score 75%

Match Result

✓ Correct

Melbourne Victory FC58% Draw20% Adelaide United FC22%

Actual: Melbourne Victory FC win

Both Teams to Score

✓ Correct

Yes75% 0% No25%

Avg goals/match: 4.32

Actual: Yes — both scored

Over / Under Goals

✓ O/U 2.5

Line	Over	Under
± 0.5	98%	2%
± 1.5	93%	7%
± 2.5	79%	21%
± 3.5	61%	39%
± 4.5	43%	57%

Double Chance

Melbourne Victory FC or Draw

78%

Draw or Adelaide United FC

42%

Melbourne Victory FC or Adelaide United FC

80%

Half-Time Result

✓ Correct

Melbourne Victory FC43% Draw35% Adelaide United FC22%

Actual: Melbourne Victory FC win at HT

Correct Score

✗ 5–3 not predicted

5 – 3

Actual

2 – 1

7.6%

1 – 1

6.7%

3 – 1

6.5%

2 – 2

6.4%

3 – 2

5.5%

1 – 2

5.1%

2 – 0

4.7%

4 – 1

4.2%

3 – 0

3.9%

2 – 3

3.6%

4 – 2

3.6%

1 – 0

3.2%

Asian Handicap — Melbourne Victory FC

Handicap	Melbourne Victory FC covers	Push	Adelaide United FC covers
-2.5	21%	—	79%
-2	21%	16%	63%
-1.5	37%	—	63%
-1	37%	19%	44%
-0.5	56%	—	44%
+0.5	75%	—	25%
+1	75%	12%	12%
+1.5	88%	—	12%
+2	88%	7%	5%
+2.5	95%	—	5%

Clean Sheet

Melbourne Victory FC keeps clean sheet

19% ✓

Adelaide United FC keeps clean sheet

8% ✓

Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.