Melbourne Victory FC vs Adelaide United FC, A League 2024-25 REGULAR SEASON

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A League · 2024-25

Melbourne Victory FC

5 – 3

Full Time

Adelaide United FC

Sat 29 Mar 2025 · 08:35 UTC AAMI Park HT 45' · FT 45'

Y 51' Panagiotis Kikianis

Bruno Fornaroli 78' Y

Y 87' Zach Clough

Alex Badolato 90' Y

Overview

Match Preview

Melbourne Victory FC vs Adelaide United FC — A League at AAMI Park.

Melbourne Victory FC 26 games · 40 pts (2026/27)
Adelaide United FC 26 games · 43 pts (2026/27)

Match Details

Referee Shaun Evans
Referee

Standings

#	Team	P	Pts
1	Newcastle United Jets FC	26	48
2	Adelaide United FC	26	43
3	Auckland FC	26	42
4	Melbourne Victory FC	26	40
5	Sydney FC	26	39
6	Melbourne City FC	26	38
7	Macarthur FC	26	34
8	Wellington Phoenix FC	26	33
9	Central Coast Mariners FC	26	32
10	Perth Glory FC	26	31
11	Brisbane Roar FC	26	26
12	Western Sydney Wanderers FC	26	21

Head-to-Head

Melbourne Victory FC 24 games · Avg 2.8 goals Adelaide United FC

Last 5 meetings

2025-03-29 Melbourne Victory FC 5–3 Adelaide United FC 2025-01-18 Adelaide United FC 3–2 Melbourne Victory FC 2024-03-09 Adelaide United FC 1–2 Melbourne Victory FC 2023-12-30 Melbourne Victory FC 2–0 Adelaide United FC 2023-11-04 Melbourne Victory FC 1–1 Adelaide United FC

Recent Form

Melbourne Victory FC

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
29 Mar	Adelaide United FC	H	5–3	W
15 Mar	Western Sydney Wanderers FC	A	2–4	L
08 Mar	Central Coast Mariners FC	H	3–0	W
01 Mar	Brisbane Roar FC	A	1–1	D
22 Feb	Melbourne City FC	H	2–2	D
14 Feb	Wellington Phoenix FC	H	1–0	W

Adelaide United FC

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
29 Mar	Melbourne Victory FC	A	3–5	L
14 Mar	Macarthur FC	H	4–5	L
08 Mar	Brisbane Roar FC	H	1–1	D
01 Mar	Auckland FC	A	4–4	D
23 Feb	Western United FC	A	0–3	L
15 Feb	Newcastle United Jets FC	H	1–2	L

Season Stats

Melbourne Victory FC		Adelaide United FC
#4	Position	#2
40	Points	43
26	Played	26
11 / 7 / 8	W / D / L	12 / 7 / 7
44	Scored	46
33	Conceded	36
+11	GD	+10
1.54	PPG	1.65
42%	Win %	46%

Key Stats

63% Both Teams to Score
H2H (24 games)

54% Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history

Melbourne Victory FC are 4th (40 pts). Adelaide United FC are 2nd (43 pts).

Events

Match Events

0' Packed stands, loud atmosphere — Melbourne Victory FC and Adelaide United FC get this one started.
5' The tempo has dropped considerably in the last few minutes. will be considering his options from the bench.
10' Matchday of the Array and both teams know exactly what is at stake tonight.
12' Johnny Yull puts Adelaide United FC on the lead.
17' Panagiotis Kikianis is putting in a real shift tonight. He has covered more ground than anyone else for Adelaide United FC so far.
22' Adelaide United FC has dominated the recent head-to-head record, winning 1 of the last 3 meetings.
27' Players seem to put ease on their energy level Spectators hardly appreciate such approach. Teams need to speed up the tempo.
29' Daniel Arzani adds to his 0 season tally! Melbourne Victory FC lead 1-1 — and this changes everything.
34' The travelling Adelaide United FC supporters hardly appreciate their team being pressed down to the backline.
39' Nishan Velupillay adds to his 1 season tally! Melbourne Victory FC lead 2-1 — and this changes everything.
44' Both teams are passing the ball around with high level of urgency. Melbourne Victory FC needs to do something about it to get closer to the goal.
46' It is a substitution in Adelaide United FC team. Jay Barnett is replaced by Isaias Sanchez on 46 minute.
47' GOAL! Archie Goodwin scores on 47. Assisted by Ethan Alagich
51' Panagiotis Kikianis catches the referee's attention in entirely the wrong way. card on 51.
56' A quiet spell here at AAMI Park. Adelaide United FC seem content sitting deep and soaking up pressure.
57' Zach Clough is having a superb {COMPETITION} campaign — that is 0 goals this season for the .
62' The crowd applauds Fabian Monge as he leaves the pitch. Jordi Valadon steps in for Melbourne Victory FC.
67' Joshua Rawlins has been disciplined this evening — perhaps mindful of those 0 cards already picked up this season.
71' Daniel Arzani adds to his 0 season tally! Melbourne Victory FC lead 3-3 — and this changes everything.
75' The Melbourne Victory FC bench stirs into life. Reno Piscopo is withdrawn and Alex Badolato gets his opportunity.
76' The supporters are chanting for Luka Jovanovic. He replaces Archie Goodwin on 76 minute.
78' It’s gonna be a card for Bruno Fornaroli.
83' Spectators are craving for more action. Both teams play very cautiously. They need to put some more energy.
84' The supporters are chanting for Nikolaos Vergos. He replaces Bruno Fornaroli on 84 minute.
87' The referee reaches into his pocket. Out comes the card for Zach Clough.
88' Nikolaos Vergos makes no mistake. The score reads 4-3 and Melbourne Victory FC are in front.
90' Nikolaos Vergos adds to his 1 season tally! Melbourne Victory FC lead 5-3 — and this changes everything.
90' Poor challenge from Alex Badolato. The referee spots it immediately and shows the card.
The final score is 5-3.

Lineups

Melbourne Victory FC Lineups

Starting XI

8
Zinedine Machach
4
Lachlan Jackson ↓ Brendan Hamill 46'
21
Roderick Miranda
7
Daniel Arzani
1
Mitch Langerak
10
Bruno Fornaroli ↓ Nikolaos Vergos 84'
27
Reno Piscopo ↓ Alex Badolato 75'
17
Nishan Velupillay
16
Joshua Inserra ↓ Joshua Rawlins 84'
18
Fabian Monge ↓ Jordi Valadon 62'
28
Kasey Bos

Bench

5
Brendan Hamill ↑ 46'
22
Joshua Rawlins ↑ 84'
25
Jack Duncan
23
Alex Badolato ↑ 75'
14
Jordi Valadon ↑ 62'
19
Jing Reec
9
Nikolaos Vergos ↑ 84'

Coach Arthur Diles

Adelaide United FC Lineups

Starting XI

Bench

17
Ben Folami
10
Zach Clough ↑ 46'
21
Javi Lopez
40
Ethan Cox
8
Isaias Sanchez ↑ 46'
9
Luka Jovanovic ↑ 76'
44
Ryan White

H2H

H2H Top Scorers

Player	Goals
Bruno Fornaroli	6
Marco Rojas	4
Craig Goodwin	4
Stefan Mauk	3
Besart Berisha	3
Hiroshi Ibusuki	3
Vince Lia	2
Ola Toivonen	2

Head to Head

Melbourne Victory FC Form

2025-03-29 Melbourne Victory FC 5–3 Adelaide United FC W 2025-03-15 Western Sydney Wanderers FC 4–2 Melbourne Victory FC L 2025-03-08 Melbourne Victory FC 3–0 Central Coast Mariners FC W 2025-03-01 Brisbane Roar FC 1–1 Melbourne Victory FC D 2025-02-22 Melbourne Victory FC 2–2 Melbourne City FC D 2025-02-14 Melbourne Victory FC 1–0 Wellington Phoenix FC W

Adelaide United FC Form

2025-03-29 Melbourne Victory FC 5–3 Adelaide United FC L 2025-03-14 Adelaide United FC 4–5 Macarthur FC L 2025-03-08 Adelaide United FC 1–1 Brisbane Roar FC D 2025-03-01 Auckland FC 4–4 Adelaide United FC D 2025-02-23 Western United FC 3–0 Adelaide United FC L 2025-02-15 Adelaide United FC 1–2 Newcastle United Jets FC L

Predictions

Prediction accuracy

4 / 4

2.6 Melbourne Victory FC xG

Expected Goals

Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo

1.72 Adelaide United FC xG

I would bet for: Over 2.5 goals 79% + Both teams to score 75%

Match Result

✓ Correct

Melbourne Victory FC58% Draw20% Adelaide United FC22%

Actual: Melbourne Victory FC win

Both Teams to Score

✓ Correct

Yes75% 0% No25%

Avg goals/match: 4.32

Actual: Yes — both scored

Over / Under Goals

✓ O/U 2.5

Line	Over	Under
± 0.5	98%	2%
± 1.5	93%	7%
± 2.5	79%	21%
± 3.5	61%	39%
± 4.5	43%	57%

Double Chance

Melbourne Victory FC or Draw

78%

Draw or Adelaide United FC

42%

Melbourne Victory FC or Adelaide United FC

80%

Half-Time Result

✓ Correct

Melbourne Victory FC43% Draw35% Adelaide United FC22%

Actual: Melbourne Victory FC win at HT

Correct Score

✗ 5–3 not predicted

5 – 3

Actual

2 – 1

7.6%

1 – 1

6.7%

3 – 1

6.5%

2 – 2

6.4%

3 – 2

5.5%

1 – 2

5.1%

2 – 0

4.7%

4 – 1

4.2%

3 – 0

3.9%

2 – 3

3.6%

4 – 2

3.6%

1 – 0

3.2%

Asian Handicap — Melbourne Victory FC

Handicap	Melbourne Victory FC covers	Push	Adelaide United FC covers
-2.5	21%	—	79%
-2	21%	16%	63%
-1.5	37%	—	63%
-1	37%	19%	44%
-0.5	56%	—	44%
+0.5	75%	—	25%
+1	75%	12%	12%
+1.5	88%	—	12%
+2	88%	7%	5%
+2.5	95%	—	5%

Clean Sheet

Melbourne Victory FC keeps clean sheet

19% ✓

Adelaide United FC keeps clean sheet

8% ✓

Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.