Luton Town FC vs Derby County FC, Championship 2024-25 REGULAR SEASON

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Championship · 2024-25

Luton Town FC

2 – 1

Full Time

Derby County FC

Fri 20 Dec 2024 · 20:00 UTC Kenilworth Road 11,667 HT 45' · FT 45'

0–1 58' Kayden Jackson

Pelly-Ruddock Mpanzu 89' 1–1

Carlton Morris 90+2' 2–1

Mads Juel Andersen 37' Y

Y 41' Nathaniel Phillips

Y 67' Callum Elder

Y 89' Curtis Nelson

Overview

Match Preview

Luton Town FC vs Derby County FC — Championship at Kenilworth Road.

Luton Town FC 0 games · 0 pts (2026/27)
Derby County FC 0 games · 0 pts (2026/27)

Match Details

Referee
Assistant 1 Shaun Hudson
Assistant 2 Rob Hyde (England)

Standings

#	Team	P	Pts
1	Coventry City FC	46	95
2	Ipswich Town FC	46	84
3	Hull City AFC	46	73
4	Oxford United FC	46	47
5	Leicester City FC	46	46
6	Millwall FC	0	0
7	Southampton FC	0	0
8	Middlesbrough FC	0	0
9	Wrexham AFC	0	0
10	Derby County FC	0	0
11	Norwich City FC	0	0
12	Birmingham City FC	0	0
13	Swansea City AFC	0	0
14	Bristol City FC	0	0
15	Sheffield United FC	0	0
16	Preston North End FC	0	0
17	Queens Park Rangers FC	0	0
18	Watford FC	0	0
19	Stoke City FC	0	0
20	Portsmouth FC	0	0
21	Charlton Athletic FC	0	0
22	Blackburn Rovers FC	0	0
23	West Bromwich Albion FC	0	0
24	Burnley FC	0	0
25	Wolverhampton Wanderers FC	0	0
26	Cardiff City FC	0	0
27	West Ham United FC	0	0
28	Bolton Wanderers FC	0	0
29	Lincoln City FC	0	0
30	Sheffield Wednesday FC	46	0

Head-to-Head

Luton Town FC 8 games · Avg 2.6 goals Derby County FC

Last 5 meetings

2024-12-20 Luton Town FC 2–1 Derby County FC 2022-02-26 Luton Town FC 1–0 Derby County FC 2021-10-19 Derby County FC 2–2 Luton Town FC 2021-04-02 Derby County FC 2–0 Luton Town FC 2020-09-19 Luton Town FC 2–1 Derby County FC

Recent Form

Luton Town FC

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
20 Dec	Derby County FC	H	2–1	W
14 Dec	Blackburn Rovers FC	A	0–2	L
10 Dec	Stoke City FC	H	2–1	W
07 Dec	Swansea City AFC	H	1–1	D
30 Nov	Norwich City FC	A	2–4	L
27 Nov	Leeds United FC	A	0–3	L

Derby County FC

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
20 Dec	Luton Town FC	A	1–2	L
13 Dec	Portsmouth FC	H	4–0	W
10 Dec	Burnley FC	A	0–0	D
07 Dec	Leeds United FC	A	0–2	L
01 Dec	Sheffield Wednesday FC	H	1–2	L
27 Nov	Swansea City AFC	H	1–2	L

Key Stats

50% Both Teams to Score
H2H (8 games)

50% Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history

Events

Match Events

0' The match kicks off with home fans waiting with anticipation for Luton Town FC to score. At the same time, Derby County FC does not seem to pull back! Let’s get it on!
5' Derby County FC fans have not had much to celebrate tonight. Their side is struggling to get forward.
10' Derby County FC seems to be on a short break. The game is mainly concentrated in the center. It’s high time they got back to action. Otherwise, it looks like a goalless game.
15' The teams are not in a rush to score plenty of goals. It might look strange considering Derby County FC that had 385 games and scored 452 goals.
20' It is a cagey affair so far. Luton Town FC in their 3-4-3 trying to find a way past Derby County FC's compact 5-3-2.
25' It’s high time Paul Warne made some changes to put the his team’s game back to action.
30' Ireland international Marcus Harness has been a key figure this campaign — 0 goals and 0 assists in the Array this season.
35' Neither side is committing men forward. This has all the hallmarks of a tense, tactical contest.
37' That looks like a foul for a card for Mads Juel Andersen.
41' The referee calls foul for Nathaniel Phillips. He receives a card.
46' It looks like no one’s ball. Luton Town FC is used to counterattacking playing. None of the sides are ready to take the lead.
51' Luton Town FC are deployed in a 3-4-3 today, looking to exploit space against Derby County FC's 5-3-2 shape.
56' Curtis Nelson is a natural and has been asked to do a very specific job for Derby County FC tonight.
58' Kayden Jackson makes no mistake. The score reads 0-1 and Derby County FC are in front.
62' Time for substitution for Derby County FC. Sonny Bradley is replaced by Craig Forsyth.
67' Callum Elder catches the referee's attention in entirely the wrong way. card on 67.
68' Another change for Luton Town FC made on 68 minute. Victor Moses leaves to be changed by Zack Nelson.
69' Pelly-Ruddock Mpanzu is replacing Tom Krauss for the Luton Town FC side.
74' Luton Town FC currently sit 19 in the Array table. A result here could be decisive in the race for the top positions.
78' A change in the Derby County FC ranks — Kayden Jackson exits the field as James Collins enters on 78.
79' Nathaniel Mendez-Laing gets the nod from Derby County FC. He replaces Jerry Yates and will look to change the dynamic.
84' Fresh legs for Derby County FC! Marcus Harness comes on to replace Kenzo Goudmijn.
86' Jordan Clark makes way for Joe Taylor at the 86 minute mark. A tactical switch from Luton Town FC.
89' Assisted by Pelly-Ruddock Mpanzu with the perfectly-timed delivery and Pelly-Ruddock Mpanzu makes no mistake. 1-1!
89' The referee calls foul for Curtis Nelson. He receives a card.
With this win, Luton Town FC is likely to improve its situation in the overall team standings.

Lineups

Luton Town FC Lineups

3-4-3

Starting XI

29
Tom Holmes
7
Victor Moses ↓ Zack Nelson 68'
19
Jacob Brown ↓ Cauley Woodrow 68'
9
Carlton Morris
18
Jordan Clark ↓ Joe Taylor 86'
11
Elijah Adebayo
1
Thomas Kaminski
14
Tahith Chong
8
Tom Krauss ↓ Pelly-Ruddock Mpanzu 69'
5
Mads Juel Andersen ↓ Joseph Johnson 86'
6
Mark McGuinness

Bench

25
Joe Taylor ↑ 86'
13
Marvelous Nakamba
21
Erik Pieters
10
Cauley Woodrow ↑ 68'
23
Tim Krul
17
Pelly-Ruddock Mpanzu ↑ 69'
38
Joseph Johnson ↑ 86'
37
Zack Nelson ↑ 68'
40
Christian Chigozie

Coach Rob Edwards

Derby County FC Lineups

5-3-2

Starting XI

17
Kenzo Goudmijn ↓ Marcus Harness 84'
8
Ben Osborn
19
Kayden Jackson ↓ James Collins 78'
2
Kane Wilson
35
Curtis Nelson
10
Jerry Yates ↓ Nathaniel Mendez-Laing 79'
5
Sonny Bradley ↓ Craig Forsyth 62'
32
Ebou Adams
20
Callum Elder
12
Nathaniel Phillips
1
Jacob Widell Zetterstrom

Bench

Coach Paul Warne

H2H

H2H Top Scorers

Player	Goals
Tom Lawrence	2
Jack Marriott	1
Pelly-Ruddock Mpanzu	1
Jordan Clark	1
Millenic Alli	1
Luke Berry	1
Lee Gregory	1
Graeme Shinnie	1

Head to Head

Luton Town FC Form

2024-12-20 Luton Town FC 2–1 Derby County FC W 2024-12-14 Blackburn Rovers FC 2–0 Luton Town FC L 2024-12-10 Luton Town FC 2–1 Stoke City FC W 2024-12-07 Luton Town FC 1–1 Swansea City AFC D 2024-11-30 Norwich City FC 4–2 Luton Town FC L 2024-11-27 Leeds United FC 3–0 Luton Town FC L

Derby County FC Form

2024-12-20 Luton Town FC 2–1 Derby County FC L 2024-12-13 Derby County FC 4–0 Portsmouth FC W 2024-12-10 Burnley FC 0–0 Derby County FC D 2024-12-07 Leeds United FC 2–0 Derby County FC L 2024-12-01 Derby County FC 1–2 Sheffield Wednesday FC L 2024-11-27 Derby County FC 1–2 Swansea City AFC L

Predictions

Prediction accuracy

2 / 4

1.43 Luton Town FC xG

Expected Goals

Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo

1 Derby County FC xG

I would bet for: Under 2.5 goals 57%

Match Result

✓ Correct

Luton Town FC49% Draw27% Derby County FC24%

Actual: Luton Town FC win

Both Teams to Score

✗ Wrong

Yes49% 0% No51%

Avg goals/match: 2.43

Actual: Yes — both scored

Over / Under Goals

✗ O/U 2.5

Line	Over	Under
± 0.5	89%	11%
± 1.5	70%	30%
± 2.5	43%	57%
± 3.5	23%	77%
± 4.5	11%	89%

Double Chance

Luton Town FC or Draw

77%

Draw or Derby County FC

51%

Luton Town FC or Derby County FC

73%

Half-Time Result

✓ Correct

Luton Town FC32% Draw49% Derby County FC19%

Actual: Draw at HT

Correct Score

✓ In top 12

1 – 1

13.5%

1 – 0

11.6%

0 – 0

11%

2 – 0

8.8%

2 – 1

Actual

0 – 1

7.7%

1 – 2

2 – 2

4.4%

0 – 2

4.3%

3 – 1

4.2%

3 – 0

4.1%

3 – 2

2.2%

Asian Handicap — Luton Town FC

Handicap	Luton Town FC covers	Push	Derby County FC covers
-2.5	9%	—	91%
-2	9%	14%	77%
-1.5	23%	—	77%
-1	23%	23%	55%
-0.5	45%	—	55%
+0.5	75%	—	25%
+1	75%	15%	9%
+1.5	91%	—	9%
+2	91%	7%	3%
+2.5	97%	—	3%

Clean Sheet

Luton Town FC keeps clean sheet

38% ✓

Derby County FC keeps clean sheet

25% ✓

Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.