Kilmarnock FC vs Heart of Midlothian FC, Premier League 2023-24 REGULAR SEASON

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Premier League · 2023-24

Kilmarnock FC

0 – 1

Full Time

Heart of Midlothian FC

Sat 2 Dec 2023 · 15:00 UTC Rugby Park 5,915 HT 45' · FT 45'

0–1 18' Will Dennis og

Will Dennis 41' Y

David Watson 68' Y

Y 79' Calem Nieuwenhof

Overview

Match Preview

Kilmarnock FC vs Heart of Midlothian FC — Premier League at Rugby Park.

Kilmarnock FC 33 games · 28 pts (2026/27)
Heart of Midlothian FC 33 games · 70 pts (2026/27)

Match Details

Referee David Dickinson
Assistant 1 Chris Rae (Scotland)
Assistant 2 Colin Drummond (Scotland)

Standings

#	Team	P	Pts
1	Heart of Midlothian FC	33	70
2	Rangers FC	33	69
3	Celtic FC	33	67
4	Motherwell FC	33	54
5	Hibernian FC	33	51
6	Falkirk FC	33	46
7	Dundee United FC	33	40
8	Aberdeen FC	33	33
9	Dundee FC	33	33
10	St. Mirren FC	33	30
11	Kilmarnock FC	33	28
12	Livingston FC	33	16

Head-to-Head

Kilmarnock FC 21 games · Avg 2.1 goals Heart of Midlothian FC

Last 5 meetings

2023-12-02 Kilmarnock FC 0–1 Heart of Midlothian FC 2023-08-13 Heart of Midlothian FC 0–0 Kilmarnock FC 2023-04-01 Kilmarnock FC 2–1 Heart of Midlothian FC 2022-12-17 Heart of Midlothian FC 3–1 Kilmarnock FC 2022-10-09 Kilmarnock FC 2–2 Heart of Midlothian FC

Recent Form

Kilmarnock FC

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
02 Dec	Heart of Midlothian FC	H	0–1	L
25 Nov	Ross County FC	A	0–0	D
11 Nov	Hibernian FC	A	0–1	L
04 Nov	Motherwell FC	H	1–0	W
01 Nov	St. Johnstone FC	A	1–2	L
29 Oct	Aberdeen FC	H	2–0	W

Heart of Midlothian FC

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
02 Dec	Kilmarnock FC	A	1–0	W
25 Nov	St. Johnstone FC	H	1–0	W
11 Nov	Motherwell FC	A	2–1	W
01 Nov	Livingston FC	H	1–0	W
29 Oct	Rangers FC	A	1–2	L
22 Oct	Celtic FC	H	1–4	L

Season Stats

Kilmarnock FC		Heart of Midlothian FC
#11	Position	#1
28	Points	70
33	Played	33
6 / 10 / 17	W / D / L	21 / 7 / 5
37	Scored	58
65	Conceded	28
-28	GD	+30
0.85	PPG	2.12
18%	Win %	64%

Key Stats

43% Both Teams to Score
H2H (21 games)

43% Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history

Kilmarnock FC are 11th (28 pts). Heart of Midlothian FC are 1st (70 pts).

Events

Match Events

0' Kilmarnock FC have kicked off against Heart of Midlothian FC. Both sides are eager to make an early statement.
5' Danny Armstrong has been one of the livelier players on the pitch with 0 goals to his name this season.
10' Heart of Midlothian FC fans have not had much to celebrate tonight. Their side is struggling to get forward.
15' With 0 assists to his name this season, Marley Watkins is clearly more than just a goal scorer for Kilmarnock FC.
18' Brilliant from the ! Will Dennis makes it 1-0 with a superb finish on 18.
23' Kilmarnock FC are enjoying more possession but struggling to find a way through a disciplined Heart of Midlothian FC backline.
28' The tempo has dropped considerably in the last few minutes. Steven Naismith will be considering his options from the bench.
30' A tactical swap from Heart of Midlothian FC — Toby Sibbick on, Liam Boyce off on 30 minutes.
35' Kilmarnock FC are keeping things exceptionally tight at the back. It will take something special to break them down.
40' A quiet spell here at Rugby Park. Heart of Midlothian FC seem content sitting deep and soaking up pressure.
41' Poor challenge from Will Dennis. The referee spots it immediately and shows the card.
46' Over 46 minutes have gone by without a meaningful attack. The supporters want more.
51' Kilmarnock FC are deployed in a 3-5-2 today, looking to exploit space against Heart of Midlothian FC's 3-5-2 shape.
56' has dominated the recent head-to-head record, winning 0 of the last 0 meetings.
61' A tactical chess match is unfolding here. The question is which manager blinks first.
64' Time for substitution for Heart of Midlothian FC. Yutaro Oda is replaced by Kyosuke Tagawa.
68' The referee calls foul for David Watson. He receives a card.
70' The Kilmarnock FC manager makes a substitution. Robbie Deas departs to be replaced by Matty Kennedy.
75' Kilmarnock FC are happy to let the opposition have the ball in their own half. The trap is set.
79' Calem Nieuwenhof has been a danger all night but risks an early exit having now seen a card on 79.
80' Andrew Dallas has so much to prove this time. He replaces David Watson on 80 minute.
84' A change in the Heart of Midlothian FC ranks — Calem Nieuwenhof exits the field as Aidan Denholm enters on 84.
89' Kilmarnock FC started playing very sharply right from the kick off. However, it slowed down the tempo rapidly by 89.
Another three points for Heart of Midlothian FC.

Lineups

Kilmarnock FC Lineups

3-5-2

Starting XI

Bench

Coach Derek McInnes

Heart of Midlothian FC Lineups

3-5-2

Starting XI

Bench

Coach Steven Naismith

H2H

H2H Top Scorers

Player	Goals
Chris Burke	4
Lawrence Shankland	3
Sean Clare	2
Stuart Findlay	2
Danny Armstrong	2
Eamonn Brophy	2
Craig Halkett	1
Kenneth Vargas	1

Head to Head

Kilmarnock FC Form

2023-12-02 Kilmarnock FC 0–1 Heart of Midlothian FC L 2023-11-25 Ross County FC 0–0 Kilmarnock FC D 2023-11-11 Hibernian FC 1–0 Kilmarnock FC L 2023-11-04 Kilmarnock FC 1–0 Motherwell FC W 2023-11-01 St. Johnstone FC 2–1 Kilmarnock FC L 2023-10-29 Kilmarnock FC 2–0 Aberdeen FC W

Heart of Midlothian FC Form

2023-12-02 Kilmarnock FC 0–1 Heart of Midlothian FC W 2023-11-25 Heart of Midlothian FC 1–0 St. Johnstone FC W 2023-11-11 Motherwell FC 1–2 Heart of Midlothian FC W 2023-11-01 Heart of Midlothian FC 1–0 Livingston FC W 2023-10-29 Rangers FC 2–1 Heart of Midlothian FC L 2023-10-22 Heart of Midlothian FC 1–4 Celtic FC L

Predictions

Prediction accuracy

3 / 4

0.85 Kilmarnock FC xG

Expected Goals

Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo

1.78 Heart of Midlothian FC xG

I would bet for: Markets are evenly balanced — no clear value pick.

Match Result

✓ Correct

Kilmarnock FC22% Draw27% Heart of Midlothian FC51%

Actual: Heart of Midlothian FC win

Both Teams to Score

✓ Correct

Yes48% 0% No52%

Avg goals/match: 2.63

Actual: No — clean sheet

Over / Under Goals

✓ O/U 2.5

Line	Over	Under
± 0.5	91%	9%
± 1.5	74%	26%
± 2.5	48%	52%
± 3.5	27%	73%
± 4.5	13%	87%

Double Chance

Kilmarnock FC or Draw

48%

Draw or Heart of Midlothian FC

78%

Kilmarnock FC or Heart of Midlothian FC

73%

Half-Time Result

✗ Wrong

Kilmarnock FC14% Draw46% Heart of Midlothian FC40%

Actual: Heart of Midlothian FC win at HT

Correct Score

✓ In top 12

0 – 1

Actual

1 – 1

11.7%

0 – 2

11.2%

1 – 2

9.4%

0 – 0

9.1%

0 – 3

6.5%

1 – 3

5.6%

1 – 0

5.2%

2 – 1

4.4%

2 – 2

0 – 4

2.9%

1 – 4

2.6%

Asian Handicap — Kilmarnock FC

Handicap	Kilmarnock FC covers	Push	Heart of Midlothian FC covers
-2.5	1%	—	99%
-2	1%	4%	95%
-1.5	5%	—	95%
-1	5%	11%	84%
-0.5	16%	—	84%
+0.5	42%	—	58%
+1	42%	24%	34%
+1.5	66%	—	34%
+2	66%	18%	16%
+2.5	84%	—	16%

Clean Sheet

Kilmarnock FC keeps clean sheet

18% ✓

Heart of Midlothian FC keeps clean sheet

43% ✗

Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.