Adelaide United FC vs Melbourne Victory FC, A League 2025-26 REGULAR SEASON

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A League · 2025-26

Adelaide United FC

2 – 1

Full Time

Melbourne Victory FC

Sat 17 Jan 2026 · 08:35 UTC HT 45' · FT 45'

Overview

Match Preview

Adelaide United FC vs Melbourne Victory FC — A League .

Adelaide United FC 26 games · 43 pts (2026/27)
Melbourne Victory FC 26 games · 40 pts (2026/27)

Match Details

Referee Shaun Evans
Referee Lachlan Keevers

Standings

#	Team	P	Pts
1	Newcastle United Jets FC	26	48
2	Adelaide United FC	26	43
3	Auckland FC	26	42
4	Melbourne Victory FC	26	40
5	Sydney FC	26	39
6	Melbourne City FC	26	38
7	Macarthur FC	26	34
8	Wellington Phoenix FC	26	33
9	Central Coast Mariners FC	26	32
10	Perth Glory FC	26	31
11	Brisbane Roar FC	26	26
12	Western Sydney Wanderers FC	26	21

Head-to-Head

Adelaide United FC 24 games · Avg 2.8 goals Melbourne Victory FC

Last 5 meetings

2026-01-17 Adelaide United FC 2–1 Melbourne Victory FC 2025-12-13 Melbourne Victory FC 2–1 Adelaide United FC 2025-03-29 Melbourne Victory FC 5–3 Adelaide United FC 2025-01-18 Adelaide United FC 3–2 Melbourne Victory FC 2024-03-09 Adelaide United FC 1–2 Melbourne Victory FC

Recent Form

Adelaide United FC

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
17 Jan	Melbourne Victory FC	H	2–1	W
11 Jan	Wellington Phoenix FC	A	2–2	D
04 Jan	Central Coast Mariners FC	H	0–4	L
27 Dec	Western Sydney Wanderers FC	H	3–2	W
20 Dec	Perth Glory FC	A	1–0	W
13 Dec	Melbourne Victory FC	A	1–2	L

Melbourne Victory FC

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
17 Jan	Adelaide United FC	A	1–2	L
10 Jan	Western Sydney Wanderers FC	H	0–1	L
02 Jan	Perth Glory FC	H	3–2	W
29 Dec	Wellington Phoenix FC	H	5–1	W
20 Dec	Melbourne City FC	A	1–0	W
13 Dec	Adelaide United FC	H	2–1	W

Season Stats

Adelaide United FC		Melbourne Victory FC
#2	Position	#4
43	Points	40
26	Played	26
12 / 7 / 7	W / D / L	11 / 7 / 8
46	Scored	44
36	Conceded	33
+10	GD	+11
1.65	PPG	1.54
46%	Win %	42%

Key Stats

63% Both Teams to Score
H2H (24 games)

54% Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history

Adelaide United FC are 2nd (43 pts). Melbourne Victory FC are 4th (40 pts).

Events

Match Events

0' We are underway at . The crowd does wile while the referee lows the starting whistle.
The final whistle goes. A composed, disciplined performance from Adelaide United FC to claim maximum points.

Lineups

Adelaide United FC Lineups

Melbourne Victory FC Lineups

H2H

H2H Top Scorers

Player	Goals
Bruno Fornaroli	6
Marco Rojas	4
Craig Goodwin	4
Stefan Mauk	3
Besart Berisha	3
Hiroshi Ibusuki	3
Daniel Arzani	2
Nestor Irankunda	2

Head to Head

Adelaide United FC Form

2026-01-17 Adelaide United FC 2–1 Melbourne Victory FC W 2026-01-11 Wellington Phoenix FC 2–2 Adelaide United FC D 2026-01-04 Adelaide United FC 0–4 Central Coast Mariners FC L 2025-12-27 Adelaide United FC 3–2 Western Sydney Wanderers FC W 2025-12-20 Perth Glory FC 0–1 Adelaide United FC W 2025-12-13 Melbourne Victory FC 2–1 Adelaide United FC L

Melbourne Victory FC Form

2026-01-17 Adelaide United FC 2–1 Melbourne Victory FC L 2026-01-10 Melbourne Victory FC 0–1 Western Sydney Wanderers FC L 2026-01-02 Melbourne Victory FC 3–2 Perth Glory FC W 2025-12-29 Melbourne Victory FC 5–1 Wellington Phoenix FC W 2025-12-20 Melbourne City FC 0–1 Melbourne Victory FC W 2025-12-13 Melbourne Victory FC 2–1 Adelaide United FC W

Predictions

Prediction accuracy

3 / 4

1.77 Adelaide United FC xG

Expected Goals

Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo

1.78 Melbourne Victory FC xG

I would bet for: Adelaide United FC or Melbourne Victory FC 76% + Both teams to score 69%

Match Result

✓ Correct

Adelaide United FC41% Draw24% Melbourne Victory FC35%

Actual: Adelaide United FC win

Both Teams to Score

✓ Correct

Yes69% 0% No31%

Avg goals/match: 3.55

Actual: Yes — both scored

Over / Under Goals

✓ O/U 2.5

Line	Over	Under
± 0.5	96%	4%
± 1.5	87%	13%
± 2.5	68%	32%
± 3.5	47%	53%
± 4.5	29%	71%

Double Chance

Adelaide United FC or Draw

65%

Draw or Melbourne Victory FC

59%

Adelaide United FC or Melbourne Victory FC

76%

Half-Time Result

✗ Wrong

Adelaide United FC30% Draw41% Melbourne Victory FC29%

Actual: Adelaide United FC win at HT

Correct Score

✓ In top 12

1 – 1

9.9%

1 – 2

7.8%

2 – 1

Actual

2 – 2

6.8%

0 – 2

4.6%

1 – 3

4.6%

2 – 0

4.6%

3 – 1

4.6%

0 – 1

4.5%

1 – 0

4.5%

0 – 0

4.2%

2 – 3

4.1%

Asian Handicap — Adelaide United FC

Handicap	Adelaide United FC covers	Push	Melbourne Victory FC covers
-2.5	9%	—	91%
-2	9%	11%	80%
-1.5	20%	—	80%
-1	20%	18%	62%
-0.5	38%	—	62%
+0.5	62%	—	38%
+1	62%	18%	20%
+1.5	80%	—	20%
+2	80%	12%	9%
+2.5	91%	—	9%

Clean Sheet

Adelaide United FC keeps clean sheet

18% ✓

Melbourne Victory FC keeps clean sheet

18% ✓

Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.