Monday , 3 August 2026

Heracles Almelo vs FC Groningen, Eredivisie 2025-26 REGULAR SEASON

Eredivisie · 2025-26
Sun 17 May 2026 · 12:30 UTC Erve Asito 11,311 HT 45' · FT 45'
Tristan van Gilst 17' 1–1
1–2 56' Tygo Land

Overview

Match Preview

Heracles Almelo vs FC GroningenEredivisie at Erve Asito.

Recent Form

DateOpponentH/A ScoreResult
17 May FC Groningen H 1–2 L
10 May Telstar 1963 A 0–3 L
03 May PEC Zwolle A 0–1 L
26 Apr FC Volendam H 0–2 L
11 Apr AFC Ajax H 0–3 L
05 Apr SC Heerenveen A 1–4 L
DateOpponentH/A ScoreResult
17 May Heracles Almelo A 2–1 W
10 May NEC H 2–1 W
02 May SBV Excelsior H 2–3 L
25 Apr Feyenoord Rotterdam A 1–3 L
11 Apr Go Ahead Eagles H 0–0 D
04 Apr Telstar 1963 A 2–0 W

Key Stats

55% Both Teams to Score
H2H (11 games)
64% Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history

Events

Match Events

  • 0' Packed stands, loud atmosphere — Heracles Almelo and FC Groningen get this one started.
  • 4' GOAL! David van der Werff fires home to make it 0-1!
  • 9' It’s high time Ernest Faber made some changes to put the his team’s game back to action.
  • 14' FC Groningen come into this ranked 9 in Array. They desperately need points to push themselves up the standings.
  • 17' Tristan van Gilst has been a constant threat and now delivers with a goal on 17 minutes.
  • 22' Although teams showed high tempo form the start, they seem to slow down a bit. Both sides really need to catch a fire. Otherwise, we have another goalless match.
  • 27' Heracles Almelo started playing very sharply right from the kick off. However, it slowed down the tempo rapidly by 27.
  • 32' FC Groningen is defending very well tonight not leaving a chance for their rivals to get through for a goal.
  • 37' FC Groningen have won 243 goals from 307 games. They will be desperate to add to that tally today.
  • 42' Heracles Almelo are deployed in a 4-2-3-1 today, looking to exploit space against FC Groningen's 4-2-3-1 shape.
  • 47' The referee has had an easy afternoon — neither side has been overly physical in the tackle.
  • 52' Over 52 minutes have gone by without a meaningful attack. The supporters want more.
  • 56' The deadlock is broken! Tygo Land gets on the scoresheet on 56 minutes.
  • 61' While players are taking a pause, let’s have a look at their stats. The teams met 0 times this season with winning -% of all matches.
  • 66' Etienne Vaessen needs to be pretty careful with his discipline considering 0 Red cards this season.
  • 71' A quiet spell here at Erve Asito. FC Groningen seem content sitting deep and soaking up pressure.
  • 76' The 23-year-old Timo Jansink has been sensational this season — 0 goals and 0 assists is a remarkable return.
  • 81' The tempo has dropped considerably in the last few minutes. Dick Lukkien will be considering his options from the bench.
  • 86' will be watching from the dugout nervously. His Heracles Almelo side need to improve if they are to claim all three points.
  • 87' A moment of madness from Jan Zamburek on 87 minutes earns him a card. Heracles Almelo will be frustrated.
  • 90' Travis Hernes was booked on 90.
  • The referee brings this contest to a close. FC Groningen take all three points.

Lineups

H2H

Predictions

Prediction accuracy
4 / 4
1.1 Heracles Almelo xG
Expected Goals
Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo
1.6 FC Groningen xG
I would bet for: Markets are evenly balanced — no clear value pick.

Match Result

✓ Correct
Heracles Almelo26% Draw27% FC Groningen47%
Actual: FC Groningen win

Both Teams to Score

✓ Correct
Yes54% 0% No46%
Avg goals/match: 2.7
Actual: Yes — both scored

Over / Under Goals

✓ O/U 2.5
Line Over Under
± 0.5 91%
9%
± 1.5 75%
25%
± 2.5 50%
50%
± 3.5 29%
71%
± 4.5 14%
86%

Double Chance

Heracles Almelo or Draw
53%
Draw or FC Groningen
74%
Heracles Almelo or FC Groningen
73%

Half-Time Result

✓ Correct
Heracles Almelo20% Draw46% FC Groningen34%
Actual: Draw at HT

Correct Score

✓ In top 12
1 – 1
12.7%
0 – 1
9.8%
1 – 2
Actual
0 – 0
8.6%
0 – 2
8.4%
1 – 0
6.4%
2 – 1
6.3%
2 – 2
5.1%
1 – 3
4.9%
0 – 3
4.4%
2 – 0
4%
2 – 3
2.8%

Asian Handicap — Heracles Almelo

Handicap Heracles Almelo covers Push FC Groningen covers
-2.5 3% 97%
-2 3% 7% 90%
-1.5 10% 90%
-1 10% 15% 75%
-0.5 25% 75%
+0.5 53% 47%
+1 53% 22% 25%
+1.5 75% 25%
+2 75% 15% 11%
+2.5 89% 11%

Clean Sheet

Heracles Almelo keeps clean sheet
21%
FC Groningen keeps clean sheet
34%

Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.