Croatia vs Italy, European Championship 2024 GROUP STAGE
Overview
Match Preview
Croatia vs Italy — European Championship at Red Bull Arena Leipzig.
Match Details
- Referee Danny Makkelie
- Assistant 1 Hessel Steegstra
- Assistant 2 Jan de Vries
18 games this season
🟨 3.2/game
⚽ 11.3 goals/game
🟥 1 total
Head-to-Head
Recent Form
Key Stats
33%
Both Teams to Score
H2H (3 games)
H2H (3 games)
0%
Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history
H2H history
0%
Clean Sheets
Croatia this season
Croatia this season
0%
Clean Sheets
Italy this season
Italy this season
Goal Timing (This Season)
Croatia
0-15
–/1
16-30
–/1
31-45
–/2
46-60
1/–
61-75
1/–
76+
–/2
■ Scored ■ Conceded
Italy
0-15
1/1
16-30
1/–
31-45
–/1
46-60
–/2
61-75
–/–
76+
1/–
■ Scored ■ Conceded
Top Scorers (This Season)
Croatia
| Andrej Kramaric | 1 G |
Italy
| Nicolo Barella | 1 G |
| Alessandro Bastoni | 1 G |
Events
Match Events
- 0' In just a few seconds Red Bull Arena Leipzig will turn into a battlefield for Croatia and Italy.
- 5' It’s high time Zlatko Dalić made some changes to put the his team’s game back to action.
- 10' Alessandro Bastoni is putting in a real shift tonight. He has covered more ground than anyone else for Italy so far.
- 15' Italy come into this ranked in Array. They desperately need points to push themselves up the standings.
- 20' We miss some good tackles and strikes. Is there anyone on the field to put the game back to action?
- 24' The referee reaches into his pocket. Out comes the card for Luka Sucic.
- 29' The midfield battle is intense right now. Both Croatia and Italy are fighting for every inch of the pitch.
- 34' Croatia is defending very well tonight not leaving a chance for their rivals to get through for a goal.
- 39' will be watching from the dugout nervously. His Croatia side need to improve if they are to claim all three points.
- 44' Spectators do not have much to choose from both teams. The sides had several scoring chances but they still need a bit more than just a sight of a goal.
- 46' Croatia ring the changes. Mario Pasalic has done his job and it is now time for Ante Budimir to step up.
- 51' Mario Pasalic has been disciplined this evening — perhaps mindful of those 0 cards already picked up this season.
- 55' GOAL! Luka Modric scores on 55.
- 57' Federico Dimarco makes way for Federico Chiesa at the 57 minute mark. A tactical switch from Italy.
- 60' Poor challenge from Luka Modric. The referee spots it immediately and shows the card.
- 65' Italy has dominated the recent head-to-head record, winning 0 of the last 1 meetings.
- 70' It is a substitution in Croatia team. Luka Sucic is replaced by Ivan Perisic on 70 minute.
- 73' Luka Ivanusec catches the referee's attention in entirely the wrong way. card on 73.
- 75' Italy manager makes another effort to make the tables turned. Gianluca Scamacca is hanging Giacomo Raspadori on the field on 75 minute.
- 78' The referee reaches into his pocket. Out comes the card for Marin Pongracic.
- 80' The crowd applauds Luka Modric as he leaves the pitch. Lovro Majer steps in for Croatia.
- 81' Nicolo Fagioli is ready to make an impact after coming on for Jorginho at the 81 minute mark.
- 82' Croatia player sees a card in front of him.
- 87' Matchday of the Array and both teams know exactly what is at stake tonight.
- 90' Marcelo Brozovic catches the referee's attention in entirely the wrong way. card on 90.
- 90' The supporters are chanting for Josip Juranovic. He replaces Andrej Kramaric on 90 minute.
- The final whistle. It looks like we are having a draw.
Lineups
Croatia Lineups
4-3-3Starting XI
-
8
Mateo Kovacic ↓ Luka Ivanusec 70'
- 9
-
10
Luka Modric ↓ Lovro Majer 80'
-
15
Mario Pasalic ↓ Ante Budimir 46'
- 11
- 1
- 3
- 4
- 6
-
25
Luka Sucic ↓ Ivan Perisic 70'
- 2
Bench
- 19
-
16
Ante Budimir ↑ 46'
-
14
Ivan Perisic ↑ 70'
- 20
- 5
- 21
- 17
-
7
Lovro Majer ↑ 80'
-
22
Josip Juranovic ↑ 90'
- 23
-
18
Luka Ivanusec ↑ 70'
- 26
- 24
- 12
Coach
Zlatko Dalić
Italy Lineups
3-1-4-2Starting XI
-
8
Jorginho ↓ Nicolo Fagioli 81'
- 13
- 18
- 10
- 1
- 23
- 3
- 2
- 19
- 11
- 5
Bench
- 12
-
7
Davide Frattesi ↑ 46'
-
9
Gianluca Scamacca ↑ 75'
-
20
Mattia Zaccagni ↑ 81'
- 26
- 17
- 22
- 16
- 15
-
14
Federico Chiesa ↑ 57'
- 4
-
21
Nicolo Fagioli ↑ 81'
- 24
- 25
- 6
Coach
Luciano Spalletti
H2H
H2H Top Scorers
| Player | Goals |
|---|---|
| Luka Modric | 1 |
| Mattia Zaccagni | 1 |
Croatia Form
Predictions
Prediction accuracy
2 / 4
1.35
Croatia xG
Expected Goals
Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo
1.05
Italy xG
I would bet for:
Croatia or Draw 71% + Under 2.5 goals 57%
Match Result
✗ WrongActual: Draw
Both Teams to Score
✗ Wrong
Avg goals/match: 2.4
Actual: Yes — both scored
Over / Under Goals
✓ O/U 2.5| Line | Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ± 0.5 | 89% |
|
11% |
| ± 1.5 | 69% |
|
31% |
| ± 2.5 | 43% |
|
57% |
| ± 3.5 | 23% |
|
77% |
| ± 4.5 | 10% |
|
90% |
Double Chance
Croatia or Draw
71%
Draw or Italy
58%
Croatia or Italy
70%
Half-Time Result
✓ CorrectActual: Draw at HT
Correct Score
✓ In top 12
1 – 1
Actual
0 – 0
11.2%
1 – 0
11.1%
2 – 1
8.4%
0 – 1
8.4%
2 – 0
8%
1 – 2
6.5%
0 – 2
4.8%
2 – 2
4.5%
3 – 1
3.8%
3 – 0
3.5%
1 – 3
2.3%
Asian Handicap — Croatia
| Handicap | Croatia covers | Push | Italy covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 7% | — | 93% |
| -2 | 7% | 13% | 80% |
| -1.5 | 20% | — | 80% |
| -1 | 20% | 22% | 58% |
| -0.5 | 42% | — | 58% |
| +0.5 | 72% | — | 28% |
| +1 | 72% | 17% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | — | 11% |
| +2 | 89% | 8% | 3% |
| +2.5 | 97% | — | 3% |
Clean Sheet
Croatia keeps clean sheet
36%
✓
Italy keeps clean sheet
27%
✓
Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.