Croatia vs Italy, European Championship 2024 GROUP STAGE
Overview
Match Preview
Croatia vs Italy — European Championship at Red Bull Arena Leipzig.
Match Details
- Referee Danny Makkelie
- Assistant 1 Hessel Steegstra
- Assistant 2 Jan de Vries
18 games this season
🟨 2.3/game
⚽ 7.6 goals/game
🟥 1 total
Head-to-Head
Recent Form
Key Stats
33%
Both Teams to Score
H2H (3 games)
H2H (3 games)
0%
Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history
H2H history
0%
Clean Sheets
Croatia this season
Croatia this season
0%
Clean Sheets
Italy this season
Italy this season
Goal Timing (This Season)
Croatia
0-15
–/1
16-30
–/1
31-45
–/2
46-60
1/–
61-75
1/–
76+
–/2
■ Scored ■ Conceded
Italy
0-15
1/1
16-30
1/–
31-45
–/1
46-60
–/2
61-75
–/–
76+
1/–
■ Scored ■ Conceded
Top Scorers (This Season)
Croatia
| Andrej Kramaric | 1 G |
Italy
| Nicolo Barella | 1 G |
| Alessandro Bastoni | 1 G |
Events
Match Events
- 0' The referee blows the starting whistle. The fans are roaring. The teams are ready for the match. Croatia is hosting Italy for another epic battle.
- 5' We miss some good tackles and strikes. Is there anyone on the field to put the game back to action?
- 10' Both teams are passing the ball around with high level of urgency. Croatia needs to do something about it to get closer to the goal.
- 15' It looks like no one’s ball. Croatia is used to counterattacking playing. None of the sides are ready to take the lead.
- 20' Spectators are craving for more action. Both teams play very cautiously. They need to put some more energy.
- 24' The referee shows Croatia player a card on 24.
- 29' While players are taking a pause, let’s have a look at their stats. The teams met 1 times this season with Italy winning 0% of all matches.
- 34' The referee is likely to let players tackle, as he already missed some meaty challenges during opening seconds. He is still to establish what should not be done by the players and what is acceptable on the pitch. It’s going to be a tough game for Gianluca Scamacca suffering a number of foals already.
- 39' Players seem to put ease on their energy level Spectators hardly appreciate such approach. Teams need to speed up the tempo.
- 44' Although teams showed high tempo form the start, they seem to slow down a bit. Both sides really need to catch a fire. Otherwise, we have another goalless match.
- 46' Ante Budimir has so much to prove this time. He replaces Mario Pasalic on 46 minute.
- 51' Supporters expect more eagerness from Marcelo Brozovic, as he is very good at scoring at Red Bull Arena Leipzig with 0 goals in the last 0 games.
- 55' Croatia is taking the lead after the goal scored by Luka Modric on 55.
- 57' It is a substitution in Italy team. Federico Dimarco is replaced by Federico Chiesa on 57 minute.
- 60' Croatia player sees a card in front of him.
- 65' Italy is showing some good football. However, Italy are ready to play back every minute. It might result in some problems for the home side. The game will hardly remain goalless.
- 70' Time for substitution for Croatia. Luka Sucic is replaced by Ivan Perisic.
- 73' Luka Ivanusec was booked on 73.
- 75' Another change for Italy made on 75 minute. Giacomo Raspadori leaves to be changed by Gianluca Scamacca.
- 78' A meaty challenge results in booking for Marin Pongracic on 78.
- 80' Lovro Majer is replacing Luka Modric for the Croatia side.
- 81' Italy manager makes another effort to make the tables turned. Nicolo Fagioli is hanging Jorginho on the field on 81 minute.
- 82' It’s a booking for Croatia player. Josip Stanisic gets a card.
- 87' Italy seems to be on a short break. The game is mainly concentrated in the center. It’s high time they got back to action. Otherwise, it looks like a goalless game.
- 90' It’s gonna be a card for Marcelo Brozovic.
- 90' The Croatia manager makes a substitution. Andrej Kramaric departs to be replaced by Josip Juranovic.
- The final whistle. It looks like we are having a draw.
Lineups
Croatia Lineups
4-3-3Starting XI
-
8
Mateo Kovacic ↓ Luka Ivanusec 70'
- 9
-
10
Luka Modric ↓ Lovro Majer 80'
-
15
Mario Pasalic ↓ Ante Budimir 46'
- 11
- 1
- 3
- 4
- 6
-
25
Luka Sucic ↓ Ivan Perisic 70'
- 2
Bench
- 19
-
16
Ante Budimir ↑ 46'
-
14
Ivan Perisic ↑ 70'
- 20
- 5
- 21
- 17
-
7
Lovro Majer ↑ 80'
-
22
Josip Juranovic ↑ 90'
- 23
-
18
Luka Ivanusec ↑ 70'
- 26
- 24
- 12
Coach
Zlatko Dalić
Italy Lineups
3-1-4-2Starting XI
-
8
Jorginho ↓ Nicolo Fagioli 81'
- 13
- 18
- 10
- 1
- 23
- 3
- 2
- 19
- 11
- 5
Bench
- 12
-
7
Davide Frattesi ↑ 46'
-
9
Gianluca Scamacca ↑ 75'
-
20
Mattia Zaccagni ↑ 81'
- 26
- 17
- 22
- 16
- 15
-
14
Federico Chiesa ↑ 57'
- 4
-
21
Nicolo Fagioli ↑ 81'
- 24
- 25
- 6
Coach
Luciano Spalletti
H2H
H2H Top Scorers
| Player | Goals |
|---|---|
| Luka Modric | 1 |
| Mattia Zaccagni | 1 |
Croatia Form
Predictions
Prediction accuracy
2 / 4
1.35
Croatia xG
Expected Goals
Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo
1.05
Italy xG
I would bet for:
Croatia or Draw 71% + Under 2.5 goals 57%
Match Result
✗ WrongActual: Draw
Both Teams to Score
✗ Wrong
Avg goals/match: 2.4
Actual: Yes — both scored
Over / Under Goals
✓ O/U 2.5| Line | Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ± 0.5 | 89% |
|
11% |
| ± 1.5 | 69% |
|
31% |
| ± 2.5 | 43% |
|
57% |
| ± 3.5 | 23% |
|
77% |
| ± 4.5 | 10% |
|
90% |
Double Chance
Croatia or Draw
71%
Draw or Italy
58%
Croatia or Italy
70%
Half-Time Result
✓ CorrectActual: Draw at HT
Correct Score
✓ In top 12
1 – 1
Actual
0 – 0
11.2%
1 – 0
11.1%
2 – 1
8.4%
0 – 1
8.4%
2 – 0
8%
1 – 2
6.5%
0 – 2
4.8%
2 – 2
4.5%
3 – 1
3.8%
3 – 0
3.5%
1 – 3
2.3%
Asian Handicap — Croatia
| Handicap | Croatia covers | Push | Italy covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 7% | — | 93% |
| -2 | 7% | 13% | 80% |
| -1.5 | 20% | — | 80% |
| -1 | 20% | 22% | 58% |
| -0.5 | 42% | — | 58% |
| +0.5 | 72% | — | 28% |
| +1 | 72% | 17% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | — | 11% |
| +2 | 89% | 8% | 3% |
| +2.5 | 97% | — | 3% |
Clean Sheet
Croatia keeps clean sheet
36%
✓
Italy keeps clean sheet
27%
✓
Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.