Wednesday , 30 September 2026

Croatia vs Italy, European Championship 2024 GROUP STAGE

European Championship · 2024
Croatia
1 – 1
Full Time
Italy
Mon 24 Jun 2024 · 19:00 UTC Red Bull Arena Leipzig 38,322 HT 45' · FT 45'
Luka Modric 55' 1–0
1–1 90+8' Mattia Zaccagni
Luka Sucic 24' Y
Luka Modric 60' Y
Luka Ivanusec 73' Y
Marin Pongracic 78' Y
Josip Stanisic 82' Y
Marcelo Brozovic 90' Y
Y 90' Riccardo Calafiori
Y 90' Nicolo Fagioli
Y 90' Luciano Spalletti

Overview

Match Preview

Croatia vs Italy — European Championship at Red Bull Arena Leipzig.

  • Croatia 0 games · 0 pts (2024/24)
  • Italy 0 games · 0 pts (2024/24)

Match Details

  • Referee Danny Makkelie
  • Assistant 1 Hessel Steegstra
  • Assistant 2 Jan de Vries
12 games this season 🟨 3.7/game ⚽ 11.9 goals/game

Head-to-Head

1
1
1
Croatia 3 games · Avg 1.7 goals Italy
Last 5 meetings
2024-06-24 Croatia 1–1 Italy 2018-01-13 Croatia 2–0 Italy 2017-09-23 Italy 1–0 Croatia

Recent Form

Croatia
DateOpponentH/A ScoreResult
24 Jun Italy H 1–1 D
19 Jun Albania H 2–2 D
15 Jun Spain A 0–3 L
17 Dec Morocco H 2–1 W
13 Dec Argentina A 0–3 L
09 Dec Brazil H 5–3 W
Italy
DateOpponentH/A ScoreResult
24 Jun Croatia A 1–1 D
20 Jun Spain A 0–1 L
15 Jun Albania H 2–1 W
11 Jul England H 4–3 W
06 Jul Spain H 5–3 W
02 Jul Belgium A 2–1 W

Key Stats

33% Both Teams to Score
H2H (3 games)
0% Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history
0% Clean Sheets
Croatia this season
0% Clean Sheets
Italy this season

Goal Timing (This Season)

Croatia
0-15
–/1
16-30
–/1
31-45
–/2
46-60
1/–
61-75
1/–
76+
–/2
■ Scored ■ Conceded
Italy
0-15
1/1
16-30
1/–
31-45
–/1
46-60
–/2
61-75
–/–
76+
1/–
■ Scored ■ Conceded

Top Scorers (This Season)

Croatia
Andrej Kramaric 1 G
Italy
Nicolo Barella 1 G
Alessandro Bastoni 1 G

Events

Match Events

  • 0' And we are off! Croatia vs Italy — let the football do the talking.
  • 5' Italy is defending very well tonight not leaving a chance for their rivals to get through for a goal.
  • 10' Luka Sucic, a Croatia , has 0 bookings this season and will need to keep his discipline tonight.
  • 15' Mateo Kovacic needs to be pretty careful with his discipline considering 0 Red cards this season.
  • 20' Italy have won 42 goals from 111 games. They will be desperate to add to that tally today.
  • 24' It’s gonna be a card for Luka Sucic.
  • 29' Neither side is committing men forward. This has all the hallmarks of a tense, tactical contest.
  • 34' Croatia are happy to let the opposition have the ball in their own half. The trap is set.
  • 39' named a 4-3-3 earlier, and opted for a 3-1-4-2 in response. A fascinating tactical duel is developing.
  • 44' Both keepers have barely been tested. Croatia and Italy are cancelling each other out in the centre of the park.
  • 46' The crowd applauds Mario Pasalic as he leaves the pitch. Ante Budimir steps in for Croatia.
  • 51' The teams are not in a rush to score plenty of goals. It might look strange considering Croatia that had 169 games and scored 46 goals.
  • 55' Luka Modric puts Croatia on the lead.
  • 57' It is a substitution in Italy team. Federico Dimarco is replaced by Federico Chiesa on 57 minute.
  • 60' That is a card for Croatia. Luka Modric will be fuming at that decision.
  • 65' Italy come into this ranked in Array. They desperately need points to push themselves up the standings.
  • 70' Time for substitution for Croatia. Luka Sucic is replaced by Ivan Perisic.
  • 73' It’s a booking for Croatia player. Luka Ivanusec gets a card.
  • 75' Another substitution for Italy to replace Giacomo Raspadori by Gianluca Scamacca on 75 minute.
  • 78' Poor challenge from Marin Pongracic. The referee spots it immediately and shows the card.
  • 80' Lovro Majer is replacing Luka Modric for the Croatia side.
  • 81' Italy ring the changes. Jorginho has done his job and it is now time for Nicolo Fagioli to step up.
  • 82' Controversy at the stadium! Josip Stanisic argues furiously but the card stands.
  • 87' Matchday of the Array and both teams know exactly what is at stake tonight.
  • 90' A meaty challenge results in booking for Marcelo Brozovic on 90.
  • 90' The Croatia manager makes a substitution. Andrej Kramaric departs to be replaced by Josip Juranovic.
  • The referee brings this contest to a close. take all three points.

Lineups

Croatia Lineups

4-3-3

Starting XI

Bench

Coach Zlatko Dalić

Italy Lineups

3-1-4-2

Starting XI

Bench

Coach Luciano Spalletti

Predictions

Prediction accuracy
2 / 4
1.35 Croatia xG
Expected Goals
Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo
1.05 Italy xG
I would bet for: Croatia or Draw 71% + Under 2.5 goals 57%

Match Result

✗ Wrong
Croatia42% Draw30% Italy28%
Actual: Draw

Both Teams to Score

✗ Wrong
Yes49% 0% No51%
Avg goals/match: 2.4
Actual: Yes — both scored

Over / Under Goals

✓ O/U 2.5
Line Over Under
± 0.5 89%
11%
± 1.5 69%
31%
± 2.5 43%
57%
± 3.5 23%
77%
± 4.5 10%
90%

Double Chance

Croatia or Draw
71%
Draw or Italy
58%
Croatia or Italy
70%

Half-Time Result

✓ Correct
Croatia30% Draw50% Italy20%
Actual: Draw at HT

Correct Score

✓ In top 12
1 – 1
Actual
0 – 0
11.2%
1 – 0
11.1%
2 – 1
8.4%
0 – 1
8.4%
2 – 0
8%
1 – 2
6.5%
0 – 2
4.8%
2 – 2
4.5%
3 – 1
3.8%
3 – 0
3.5%
1 – 3
2.3%

Asian Handicap — Croatia

Handicap Croatia covers Push Italy covers
-2.5 7% — 93%
-2 7% 13% 80%
-1.5 20% — 80%
-1 20% 22% 58%
-0.5 42% — 58%
+0.5 72% — 28%
+1 72% 17% 11%
+1.5 89% — 11%
+2 89% 8% 3%
+2.5 97% — 3%

Clean Sheet

Croatia keeps clean sheet
36% ✓
Italy keeps clean sheet
27% ✓

Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.