Wednesday , 30 September 2026

AS Roma vs AC Milan, Europe 2023-24 QUARTER FINALS

UEFA Europa League · 2023-24
2 – 1
Full Time
Thu 18 Apr 2024 · 19:00 UTC Stadio Olimpico, Rome HT 45' · FT 45'

Overview

Match Preview

AS Roma vs AC Milan — Europe at Stadio Olimpico, Rome.

Match Details

  • Referee Szymon Marciniak
9 games this season 🟨 2.9/game ⚽ 7.2 goals/game 🟥 1 total

Recent Form

DateOpponentH/A ScoreResult
18 Apr AC Milan H 2–1 W
11 Apr AC Milan A 1–0 W
06 Apr SS Lazio H 1–0 W
01 Apr US Lecce A 0–0 D
17 Mar US Sassuolo Calcio H 1–0 W
14 Mar Brighton & Hove Albion FC A 0–1 L
DateOpponentH/A ScoreResult
18 Apr AS Roma A 1–2 L
14 Apr US Sassuolo Calcio A 3–3 D
11 Apr AS Roma H 0–1 L
06 Apr US Lecce H 3–0 W
30 Mar ACF Fiorentina A 2–1 W
17 Mar Hellas Verona FC A 3–1 W

Key Stats

83% Both Teams to Score
H2H (18 games)
61% Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history
0% Clean Sheets
AC Milan this season

Goal Timing (This Season)

Events

Match Events

  • 0' AS Roma have kicked off against AC Milan. Both sides are eager to make an early statement.
  • 5' The energy levels are beginning to show. Daniele De Rossi might look to freshen things up shortly.
  • 10' It looks surprising AS Roma does not make any changes. Lorenzo Pellegrini has some obvious troubles when approaching to the goal.
  • 12' What a strike from Gianluca Mancini! The score is 1-0.
  • 17' Over 17 minutes have gone by without a meaningful attack. The supporters want more.
  • 22' with the perfectly-timed delivery and Paulo Dybala makes no mistake. 2-0!
  • 27' Spectators do not have much to choose from both teams. The sides had several scoring chances but they still need a bit more than just a sight of a goal.
  • 28' The AS Roma bench stirs into life. Romelu Lukaku is withdrawn and Tammy Abraham gets his opportunity.
  • 31' A meaty challenge results in booking for Zeki Celik on 31.
  • 36' Rafael Leao, a Portugal , has 1 bookings this season and will need to keep his discipline tonight.
  • 40' AC Milan ring the changes. Ismael Bennacer has done his job and it is now time for Luka Jovic to step up.
  • 43' Time for substitution for AS Roma. Paulo Dybala is replaced by Diego Llorente.
  • 46' It’s gonna be a card for Matteo Gabbia.
  • 46' AC Milan manager makes another effort to make the tables turned. Tijjani Reijnders is hanging Davide Calabria on the field on 46 minute.
  • 51' It’s a booking for AC Milan player. Yacine Adli gets a card.
  • 56' Both teams are passing the ball around with high level of urgency. AS Roma needs to do something about it to get closer to the goal.
  • 61' Although teams showed high tempo form the start, they seem to slow down a bit. Both sides really need to catch a fire. Otherwise, we have another goalless match.
  • 66' The clock is ticking and both teams know a goal could change everything at this point.
  • 69' Noah Okafor is ready to make an impact after coming on for Christian Pulisic at the 69 minute mark.
  • 74' AS Roma are keeping things exceptionally tight at the back. It will take something special to break them down.
  • 77' Luka Jovic was booked on 77.
  • 82' AS Roma ring the changes. Edoardo Bove has done his job and it is now time for Renato Sanches to step up.
  • 85' GOAL! Matteo Gabbia scores on 85. Assisted by Rafael Leao
  • 86' Poor challenge from Davide Calabria. The referee spots it immediately and shows the card.
  • 90' It’s gonna be a card for Fikayo Tomori.
  • The referee blows the final whistle. Sensational lose for AC Milan.

Lineups

H2H

Predictions

Prediction accuracy
2 / 4
1.43 AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo
1.22 AC Milan xG
I would bet for: Markets are evenly balanced — no clear value pick.

Match Result

✓ Correct
AS Roma46% Draw27% AC Milan27%
Actual: AS Roma win

Both Teams to Score

✓ Correct
Yes54% 0% No46%
Avg goals/match: 2.65
Actual: Yes — both scored

Over / Under Goals

✗ O/U 2.5
Line Over Under
± 0.5 91%
9%
± 1.5 74%
26%
± 2.5 49%
51%
± 3.5 28%
72%
± 4.5 14%
86%

Double Chance

AS Roma or Draw
73%
Draw or AC Milan
54%
AS Roma or AC Milan
73%

Half-Time Result

✗ Wrong
AS Roma29% Draw47% AC Milan24%
Actual: AS Roma win at HT

Correct Score

✓ In top 12
1 – 1
13.3%
1 – 0
9.1%
0 – 0
9.1%
2 – 1
Actual
0 – 1
7.6%
1 – 2
7.2%
2 – 0
7.1%
2 – 2
5.2%
0 – 2
5.1%
3 – 1
4.1%
3 – 0
3.3%
1 – 3
2.9%

Asian Handicap — AS Roma

Handicap AS Roma covers Push AC Milan covers
-2.5 8% — 92%
-2 8% 12% 80%
-1.5 20% — 80%
-1 20% 21% 60%
-0.5 40% — 60%
+0.5 69% — 31%
+1 69% 17% 13%
+1.5 87% — 13%
+2 87% 9% 4%
+2.5 96% — 4%

Clean Sheet

AS Roma keeps clean sheet
30% ✓
AC Milan keeps clean sheet
25% ✓

Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.