Thursday , 2 July 2026

AS Roma vs AC Milan, Europe 2023-24 QUARTER FINALS

UEFA Europa League · 2023-24
2 1
Full Time
Thu 18 Apr 2024 · 19:00 UTC Stadio Olimpico, Rome HT 45' · FT 45'

Overview

Match Preview

AS Roma vs AC MilanEurope at Stadio Olimpico, Rome.

Match Details

  • Referee Szymon Marciniak
15 games this season 🟨 1.4/game 5.2 goals/game

Recent Form

DateOpponentH/A ScoreResult
18 Apr AC Milan H 2–1 W
11 Apr AC Milan A 1–0 W
06 Apr SS Lazio H 1–0 W
01 Apr US Lecce A 0–0 D
17 Mar US Sassuolo Calcio H 1–0 W
14 Mar Brighton & Hove Albion FC A 0–1 L
DateOpponentH/A ScoreResult
18 Apr AS Roma A 1–2 L
14 Apr US Sassuolo Calcio A 3–3 D
11 Apr AS Roma H 0–1 L
06 Apr US Lecce H 3–0 W
30 Mar ACF Fiorentina A 2–1 W
17 Mar Hellas Verona FC A 3–1 W

Key Stats

83% Both Teams to Score
H2H (18 games)
61% Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history
30% Clean Sheets
AS Roma this season

Events

Match Events

  • 0' The ball is rolling at Stadio Olimpico, Rome. AS Roma are looking to make home advantage count against AC Milan.
  • 5' Tijjani Reijnders has been one of the livelier players on the pitch with 0 goals to his name this season.
  • 10' The home supporters are growing impatient. AS Roma must find a spark to ignite this game.
  • 12' The deadlock is broken! Gianluca Mancini gets on the scoresheet on 12 minutes.
  • 17' It’s high time Stefano Pioli made some changes to put the his team’s game back to action.
  • 22' Goal! Paulo Dybala scores his 90 goal in 519 matches.
  • 27' Chris Smalling has been disciplined this evening — perhaps mindful of those 18 cards already picked up this season.
  • 28' AS Roma make a change. Romelu Lukaku trudges off to be replaced by Tammy Abraham on 28 minutes.
  • 31' AS Roma player sees a card in front of him.
  • 36' Over 36 minutes have gone by without a meaningful attack. The supporters want more.
  • 40' Fresh legs for AC Milan! Luka Jovic comes on to replace Ismael Bennacer.
  • 43' The whistle greets Paulo Dybala as he departs to be replaced by Diego Llorente.
  • 46' The referee reaches into his pocket. Out comes the card for Matteo Gabbia.
  • 46' AC Milan manager makes another effort to make the tables turned. Tijjani Reijnders is hanging Davide Calabria on the field on 46 minute.
  • 51' Yacine Adli picks up a card and will need to be extremely careful for the remainder of this match.
  • 56' Supporters expect more eagerness from Alessandro Florenzi, as he is very good at scoring at Stadio Olimpico, Rome with 0 goals in the last 0 games.
  • 61' It is a cagey affair so far. AS Roma in their trying to find a way past AC Milan's compact .
  • 66' AS Roma seems to be on a short break. The game is mainly concentrated in the center. It’s high time they got back to action. Otherwise, it looks like a goalless game.
  • 69' AC Milan make a change. Christian Pulisic trudges off to be replaced by Noah Okafor on 69 minutes.
  • 74' AS Roma are enjoying more possession but struggling to find a way through a disciplined AC Milan backline.
  • 77' The referee has no hesitation. Luka Jovic is booked for AC Milan — card on 77.
  • 82' Renato Sanches is ready to make an impact after coming on for Edoardo Bove at the 82 minute mark.
  • 85' Matteo Gabbia does the damage! The net is bulging and AC Milan surge ahead!
  • 86' The referee shows AC Milan player a card on 86.
  • 90' A meaty challenge results in booking for Fikayo Tomori on 90.
  • AC Milan will have plenty to reflect on. AS Roma were simply the better side today.

Lineups

H2H

Predictions

Prediction accuracy
2 / 4
1.43 AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo
1.22 AC Milan xG
I would bet for: Markets are evenly balanced — no clear value pick.

Match Result

✓ Correct
AS Roma46% Draw27% AC Milan27%
Actual: AS Roma win

Both Teams to Score

✓ Correct
Yes54% 0% No46%
Avg goals/match: 2.65
Actual: Yes — both scored

Over / Under Goals

✗ O/U 2.5
Line Over Under
± 0.5 91%
9%
± 1.5 74%
26%
± 2.5 49%
51%
± 3.5 28%
72%
± 4.5 14%
86%

Double Chance

AS Roma or Draw
73%
Draw or AC Milan
54%
AS Roma or AC Milan
73%

Half-Time Result

✗ Wrong
AS Roma29% Draw47% AC Milan24%
Actual: AS Roma win at HT

Correct Score

✓ In top 12
1 – 1
13.3%
1 – 0
9.1%
0 – 0
9.1%
2 – 1
Actual
0 – 1
7.6%
1 – 2
7.2%
2 – 0
7.1%
2 – 2
5.2%
0 – 2
5.1%
3 – 1
4.1%
3 – 0
3.3%
1 – 3
2.9%

Asian Handicap — AS Roma

Handicap AS Roma covers Push AC Milan covers
-2.5 8% 92%
-2 8% 12% 80%
-1.5 20% 80%
-1 20% 21% 60%
-0.5 40% 60%
+0.5 69% 31%
+1 69% 17% 13%
+1.5 87% 13%
+2 87% 9% 4%
+2.5 96% 4%

Clean Sheet

AS Roma keeps clean sheet
30%
AC Milan keeps clean sheet
25%

Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.