FC Tokyo vs Nagoya Grampus, J. League 2025 REGULAR SEASON

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J. League · 2025

FC Tokyo

3 – 1

Full Time

Nagoya Grampus

Wed 26 Feb 2025 · 10:00 UTC Ajinomoto Stadium HT 45' · FT 45'

Y 89' Kensuke Nagai

Kei Koizumi 90' Y

Overview

Match Preview

FC Tokyo vs Nagoya Grampus — J. League at Ajinomoto Stadium.

FC Tokyo 18 games · 37 pts (2026/27)
Nagoya Grampus 18 games · 31 pts (2026/27)

Standings

#	Team	P	Pts
1	Vissel Kobe	18	35
2	Cerezo Osaka FC	18	31
3	Nagoya Grampus	18	31
4	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	18	30
5	Gamba Osaka	18	28
6	Fagiano Okayama FC	18	26
7	Shimizu S-Pulse	18	24
8	Kyoto Sanga FC	18	23
9	V-Varen Nagasaki	18	21
10	Avispa Fukuoka	18	21
11	Kashima Antlers	18	45
12	FC Tokyo	18	37
13	FC Machida Zelvia	18	37
14	Kawasaki Frontale	18	28
15	Tokyo Verdy	18	28
16	Urawa Red Diamonds	18	25
17	Kashiwa Reysol	18	20
18	Yokohama F.Marinos	18	20
19	FC Mito Holly Hock	18	18
20	JEF United Ichihara Chiba	18	12

Head-to-Head

FC Tokyo 25 games · Avg 2.2 goals Nagoya Grampus

Last 5 meetings

2025-02-26 FC Tokyo 3–1 Nagoya Grampus 2024-09-14 FC Tokyo 4–1 Nagoya Grampus 2024-05-15 Nagoya Grampus 3–1 FC Tokyo 2023-06-24 FC Tokyo 2–0 Nagoya Grampus 2023-03-18 Nagoya Grampus 0–0 FC Tokyo

Recent Form

FC Tokyo

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
26 Feb	Nagoya Grampus	H	3–1	W
22 Feb	FC Machida Zelvia	H	0–1	L
15 Feb	Yokohama FC	A	1–0	W
08 Dec	Cerezo Osaka FC	H	3–0	W
30 Nov	Júbilo Iwata	A	1–2	L
09 Nov	FC Machida Zelvia	A	0–3	L

Nagoya Grampus

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
26 Feb	FC Tokyo	A	1–3	L
22 Feb	Vissel Kobe	H	2–2	D
15 Feb	Kawasaki Frontale	A	0–4	L
08 Dec	Yokohama F.Marinos	A	2–0	W
30 Nov	Sagan Tosu FC	H	0–3	L
09 Nov	Kashima Antlers	A	0–0	D

Season Stats

FC Tokyo		Nagoya Grampus
#12	Position	#3
37	Points	31
18	Played	18
13 / 0 / 5	W / D / L	10 / 0 / 8
55	Scored	46
42	Conceded	44
+13	GD	+2
2.06	PPG	1.72
72%	Win %	56%

Key Stats

52% Both Teams to Score
H2H (25 games)

44% Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history

85% Clean Sheets
FC Tokyo this season

0% Clean Sheets
Nagoya Grampus this season

FC Tokyo are 12th (37 pts). Nagoya Grampus are 3rd (31 pts).

Goal Timing (This Season)

FC Tokyo

0-15

–/–

16-30

–/–

31-45

7/1

46-60

8/1

61-75

10/–

76+

7/1

■ Scored ■ Conceded

Nagoya Grampus

0-15

5/3

16-30

–/2

31-45

2/5

46-60

2/3

61-75

2/3

76+

4/5

■ Scored ■ Conceded

Top Scorers (This Season)

FC Tokyo

Motoki Nagakura	8 G	3 A
Marcelo Ryan	5 G	2 A
Dani Gomez	5 G
Soma Anzai	5 G
Teruhito Nakagawa	4 G	2 A

Nagoya Grampus

Yuya Yamagishi	3 G
Takuya Uchida	2 G	1 A
Yudai Kimura	2 G	1 A
Naomichi Ueda	1 G	1 A

Events

Match Events

0' Temperatures are rising at Ajinomoto Stadium as FC Tokyo face off against Nagoya Grampus in what promises to be a fascinating contest.
5' Both teams are passing the ball around with high level of urgency. FC Tokyo needs to do something about it to get closer to the goal.
10' Teruki Hara, a Japan , has 0 bookings this season and will need to keep his discipline tonight.
15' We miss some good tackles and strikes. Is there anyone on the field to put the game back to action?
20' Over 20 minutes have gone by without a meaningful attack. The supporters want more.
25' The home supporters are growing impatient. FC Tokyo must find a spark to ignite this game.
30' named a earlier, and opted for a in response. A fascinating tactical duel is developing.
31' A stunning finish from Keita Yamashita — that came from absolutely nowhere!
36' Nagoya Grampus have won 409 goals from 449 games. They will be desperate to add to that tally today.
41' Yuya Asano has so much to prove this time. He replaces Teruki Hara on 41 minute.
46' Spectators are craving for more action. Both teams play very cautiously. They need to put some more energy.
51' The energy levels are beginning to show. Kenta Hasegawa might look to freshen things up shortly.
56' The travelling Nagoya Grampus supporters hardly appreciate their team being pressed down to the backline.
59' Brilliant from the ! Kein Sato makes it 2-0 with a superb finish on 59.
61' FC Tokyo manager makes another effort to make the tables turned. Marcelo Ryan is hanging Keita Yamashita on the field on 61 minute.
64' Magnificent from Keiya Shiihashi! That is 9 goals in 275 appearances — and it could not have come at a better time.
69' Shuhei Tokumoto needs to be pretty careful with his discipline considering 2 Yellow cards this season.
74' FC Tokyo has dominated the recent head-to-head record, winning 1 of the last 1 meetings.
75' A tactical swap from Nagoya Grampus — Kensuke Nagai on, Ryuji Izumi off on 75 minutes.
80' While there is no rush on the pitch, let’s have a look at some stats. Daiki Miya made 455 appearances and scored 3 goals. He is very likely to score a goal today.
84' The whistle greets Mateus as he departs to be replaced by Tsukasa Morishima.
89' That looks like a foul for a card for Kensuke Nagai.
90' That is a card for FC Tokyo. Kei Koizumi will be fuming at that decision.
90' Time for substitution for FC Tokyo. Kein Sato is replaced by Teruhito Nakagawa.
Hope, you loved the show. Another epic battle is over with the score 3-1.

Lineups

FC Tokyo Lineups

Starting XI

Bench

Coach Rikizo Matsuhashi

Nagoya Grampus Lineups

Starting XI

Bench

Coach Kenta Hasegawa

H2H

H2H Top Scorers

Player	Goals
Diego Oliveira	6
Kensuke Nagai	3
Kasper Junker	3
Diego Oliveira	2
Kensuke Nagai	2
Keita Yamashita	1
Jo	1
Leandro	1

Head to Head

FC Tokyo Form

2025-02-26 FC Tokyo 3–1 Nagoya Grampus W 2025-02-22 FC Tokyo 0–1 FC Machida Zelvia L 2025-02-15 Yokohama FC 0–1 FC Tokyo W 2024-12-08 FC Tokyo 3–0 Cerezo Osaka FC W 2024-11-30 Júbilo Iwata 2–1 FC Tokyo L 2024-11-09 FC Machida Zelvia 3–0 FC Tokyo L

Nagoya Grampus Form

2025-02-26 FC Tokyo 3–1 Nagoya Grampus L 2025-02-22 Nagoya Grampus 2–2 Vissel Kobe D 2025-02-15 Kawasaki Frontale 4–0 Nagoya Grampus L 2024-12-08 Yokohama F.Marinos 0–2 Nagoya Grampus W 2024-11-30 Nagoya Grampus 0–3 Sagan Tosu FC L 2024-11-09 Kashima Antlers 0–0 Nagoya Grampus D

Predictions

Prediction accuracy

4 / 4

3.02 FC Tokyo xG

Expected Goals

Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo

1.76 Nagoya Grampus xG

I would bet for: Over 2.5 goals 84% + Both teams to score 78%

Match Result

✓ Correct

FC Tokyo61% Draw19% Nagoya Grampus20%

Actual: FC Tokyo win

Both Teams to Score

✓ Correct

Yes78% 0% No22%

Avg goals/match: 4.78

Actual: Yes — both scored

Over / Under Goals

✓ O/U 2.5

Line	Over	Under
± 0.5	98%	2%
± 1.5	95%	5%
± 2.5	84%	16%
± 3.5	69%	31%
± 4.5	51%	49%

Double Chance

FC Tokyo or Draw

79%

Draw or Nagoya Grampus

39%

FC Tokyo or Nagoya Grampus

81%

Half-Time Result

✓ Correct

FC Tokyo48% Draw32% Nagoya Grampus20%

Actual: FC Tokyo win at HT

Correct Score

✓ In top 12

2 – 1

6.7%

3 – 1

Actual

2 – 2

5.8%

3 – 2

5.7%

1 – 1

5.2%

4 – 1

4 – 2

4.3%

2 – 0

4.1%

1 – 2

3 – 0

3.9%

2 – 3

3.4%

3 – 3

3.4%

Asian Handicap — FC Tokyo

Handicap	FC Tokyo covers	Push	Nagoya Grampus covers
-2.5	26%	—	74%
-2	26%	17%	57%
-1.5	43%	—	57%
-1	43%	18%	38%
-0.5	62%	—	38%
+0.5	79%	—	21%
+1	79%	11%	10%
+1.5	90%	—	10%
+2	90%	6%	4%
+2.5	96%	—	4%

Clean Sheet

FC Tokyo keeps clean sheet

18% ✓

Nagoya Grampus keeps clean sheet

6% ✓

Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.