FC Tokyo vs Nagoya Grampus, J. League 2025 REGULAR SEASON

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J. League · 2025

FC Tokyo

3 – 1

Full Time

Nagoya Grampus

Wed 26 Feb 2025 · 10:00 UTC Ajinomoto Stadium HT 45' · FT 45'

Y 89' Kensuke Nagai

Kei Koizumi 90' Y

Overview

Match Preview

FC Tokyo vs Nagoya Grampus — J. League at Ajinomoto Stadium.

FC Tokyo 18 games · 37 pts (2026/27)
Nagoya Grampus 18 games · 31 pts (2026/27)

Standings

#	Team	P	Pts
1	Vissel Kobe	18	35
2	Cerezo Osaka FC	18	31
3	Nagoya Grampus	18	31
4	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	18	30
5	Gamba Osaka	18	28
6	Fagiano Okayama FC	18	26
7	Shimizu S-Pulse	18	24
8	Kyoto Sanga FC	18	23
9	V-Varen Nagasaki	18	21
10	Avispa Fukuoka	18	21
11	Kashima Antlers	18	45
12	FC Tokyo	18	37
13	FC Machida Zelvia	18	37
14	Kawasaki Frontale	18	28
15	Tokyo Verdy	18	28
16	Urawa Red Diamonds	18	25
17	Kashiwa Reysol	18	20
18	Yokohama F.Marinos	18	20
19	FC Mito Holly Hock	18	18
20	JEF United Ichihara Chiba	18	12

Head-to-Head

FC Tokyo 25 games · Avg 2.2 goals Nagoya Grampus

Last 5 meetings

2025-02-26 FC Tokyo 3–1 Nagoya Grampus 2024-09-14 FC Tokyo 4–1 Nagoya Grampus 2024-05-15 Nagoya Grampus 3–1 FC Tokyo 2023-06-24 FC Tokyo 2–0 Nagoya Grampus 2023-03-18 Nagoya Grampus 0–0 FC Tokyo

Recent Form

FC Tokyo

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
26 Feb	Nagoya Grampus	H	3–1	W
22 Feb	FC Machida Zelvia	H	0–1	L
15 Feb	Yokohama FC	A	1–0	W
08 Dec	Cerezo Osaka FC	H	3–0	W
30 Nov	Júbilo Iwata	A	1–2	L
09 Nov	FC Machida Zelvia	A	0–3	L

Nagoya Grampus

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
26 Feb	FC Tokyo	A	1–3	L
22 Feb	Vissel Kobe	H	2–2	D
15 Feb	Kawasaki Frontale	A	0–4	L
08 Dec	Yokohama F.Marinos	A	2–0	W
30 Nov	Sagan Tosu FC	H	0–3	L
09 Nov	Kashima Antlers	A	0–0	D

Season Stats

FC Tokyo		Nagoya Grampus
#12	Position	#3
37	Points	31
18	Played	18
13 / 0 / 5	W / D / L	10 / 0 / 8
55	Scored	46
42	Conceded	44
+13	GD	+2
2.06	PPG	1.72
72%	Win %	56%

Key Stats

52% Both Teams to Score
H2H (25 games)

44% Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history

71% Clean Sheets
FC Tokyo this season

0% Clean Sheets
Nagoya Grampus this season

FC Tokyo are 12th (37 pts). Nagoya Grampus are 3rd (31 pts).

Goal Timing (This Season)

FC Tokyo

0-15

–/–

16-30

–/–

31-45

4/1

46-60

4/1

61-75

4/–

76+

1/1

■ Scored ■ Conceded

Nagoya Grampus

0-15

1/1

16-30

–/1

31-45

1/3

46-60

2/2

61-75

–/2

76+

3/4

■ Scored ■ Conceded

Top Scorers (This Season)

FC Tokyo

Motoki Nagakura	5 G	2 A
Marcelo Ryan	3 G	2 A
Soma Anzai	3 G

Nagoya Grampus

Naomichi Ueda

1 G

1 A

Events

Match Events

0' What a night it is going to be! FC Tōkyō welcome Nagoya Grampus for this crunch clash at Ajinomoto Stadium.
5' Nagoya Grampus is defending very well tonight not leaving a chance for their rivals to get through for a goal.
10' Spectators are craving for more action. Both teams play very cautiously. They need to put some more energy.
15' The teams are not in a rush to score plenty of goals. It might look strange considering Nagoya Grampus that had 446 games and scored 403 goals.
20' A moment of individual brilliance could settle this. Both teams are waiting for that decisive action.
25' The home supporters are growing impatient. FC Tōkyō must find a spark to ignite this game.
30' Players seem to put ease on their energy level Spectators hardly appreciate such approach. Teams need to speed up the tempo.
31' GOAL! Keita Yamashita fires home to make it 0-1!
36' Shuhei Tokumoto, a Japan , has 0 bookings this season and will need to keep his discipline tonight.
41' Another substitution for Nagoya Grampus to replace Teruki Hara by Yuya Asano on 41 minute.
46' It looks surprising FC Tōkyō does not make any changes. Yohei Takeda has some obvious troubles when approaching to the goal.
51' Yuya Asano needs to be pretty careful with his discipline considering 0 Red cards this season.
56' FC Tōkyō are enjoying more possession but struggling to find a way through a disciplined Nagoya Grampus backline.
59' The Japan Kein Sato breaks the deadlock on 59 minutes. 0-2!
61' A change in the FC Tokyo ranks — Keita Yamashita exits the field as Marcelo Ryan enters on 61.
64' Assisted by Yuya Yamagishi with the perfectly-timed delivery and Keiya Shiihashi makes no mistake. 0-3!
69' With 0 assists to his name this season, Sho Inagaki is clearly more than just a goal scorer for FC Tōkyō.
74' named a earlier, and opted for a in response. A fascinating tactical duel is developing.
75' Nagoya Grampus make a change. Ryuji Izumi trudges off to be replaced by Kensuke Nagai on 75 minutes.
80' Although teams showed high tempo form the start, they seem to slow down a bit. Both sides really need to catch a fire. Otherwise, we have another goalless match.
84' It is a substitution in Nagoya Grampus team. Mateus is replaced by Tsukasa Morishima on 84 minute.
89' Kensuke Nagai catches the referee's attention in entirely the wrong way. card on 89.
90' The referee calls foul for Kei Koizumi. He receives a card.
90' Kein Sato makes way for Teruhito Nakagawa at the 90 minute mark. A tactical switch from FC Tokyo.
With this win, FC Tōkyō is likely to improve its situation in the overall team standings.

Lineups

FC Tokyo Lineups

Starting XI

Bench

Coach Rikizo Matsuhashi

Nagoya Grampus Lineups

Starting XI

Bench

Coach Kenta Hasegawa

H2H

H2H Top Scorers

Player	Goals
Diego Oliveira	6
Kensuke Nagai	3
Kasper Junker	3
Kensuke Nagai	2
Diego Oliveira	2
Jo	1
Noriyoshi Sakai	1
Kotaro Omori	1

Head to Head

FC Tokyo Form

2025-02-26 FC Tokyo 3–1 Nagoya Grampus W 2025-02-22 FC Tokyo 0–1 FC Machida Zelvia L 2025-02-15 Yokohama FC 0–1 FC Tokyo W 2024-12-08 FC Tokyo 3–0 Cerezo Osaka FC W 2024-11-30 Júbilo Iwata 2–1 FC Tokyo L 2024-11-09 FC Machida Zelvia 3–0 FC Tokyo L

Nagoya Grampus Form

2025-02-26 FC Tokyo 3–1 Nagoya Grampus L 2025-02-22 Nagoya Grampus 2–2 Vissel Kobe D 2025-02-15 Kawasaki Frontale 4–0 Nagoya Grampus L 2024-12-08 Yokohama F.Marinos 0–2 Nagoya Grampus W 2024-11-30 Nagoya Grampus 0–3 Sagan Tosu FC L 2024-11-09 Kashima Antlers 0–0 Nagoya Grampus D

Predictions

Prediction accuracy

4 / 4

3.02 FC Tokyo xG

Expected Goals

Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo

1.76 Nagoya Grampus xG

I would bet for: Over 2.5 goals 84% + Both teams to score 78%

Match Result

✓ Correct

FC Tokyo61% Draw19% Nagoya Grampus20%

Actual: FC Tokyo win

Both Teams to Score

✓ Correct

Yes78% 0% No22%

Avg goals/match: 4.78

Actual: Yes — both scored

Over / Under Goals

✓ O/U 2.5

Line	Over	Under
± 0.5	98%	2%
± 1.5	95%	5%
± 2.5	84%	16%
± 3.5	69%	31%
± 4.5	51%	49%

Double Chance

FC Tokyo or Draw

79%

Draw or Nagoya Grampus

39%

FC Tokyo or Nagoya Grampus

81%

Half-Time Result

✓ Correct

FC Tokyo48% Draw32% Nagoya Grampus20%

Actual: FC Tokyo win at HT

Correct Score

✓ In top 12

2 – 1

6.7%

3 – 1

Actual

2 – 2

5.8%

3 – 2

5.7%

1 – 1

5.2%

4 – 1

4 – 2

4.3%

2 – 0

4.1%

1 – 2

3 – 0

3.9%

2 – 3

3.4%

3 – 3

3.4%

Asian Handicap — FC Tokyo

Handicap	FC Tokyo covers	Push	Nagoya Grampus covers
-2.5	26%	—	74%
-2	26%	17%	57%
-1.5	43%	—	57%
-1	43%	18%	38%
-0.5	62%	—	38%
+0.5	79%	—	21%
+1	79%	11%	10%
+1.5	90%	—	10%
+2	90%	6%	4%
+2.5	96%	—	4%

Clean Sheet

FC Tokyo keeps clean sheet

18% ✓

Nagoya Grampus keeps clean sheet

6% ✓

Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.