Thursday , 2 July 2026

Derby County FC vs Leeds United FC, FA Cup 2025-26 ROUND 3

FA Cup · 2025-26
Sun 11 Jan 2026 · 12:00 UTC HT 45' · FT 45'

Overview

Match Preview

Derby County FC vs Leeds United FCFA Cup .

Match Details

  • Referee Anthony Taylor
19 games this season 🟨 3.0/game 8.9 goals/game 🟥 5 total

Recent Form

DateOpponentH/A ScoreResult
11 Jan Leeds United FC H 1–3 L
04 Jan Wrexham AFC H 1–2 L
01 Jan Middlesbrough FC H 1–0 W
29 Dec Leicester City FC A 1–2 L
26 Dec Birmingham City FC A 1–1 D
20 Dec Portsmouth FC H 1–1 D
DateOpponentH/A ScoreResult
11 Jan Derby County FC A 3–1 W
07 Jan Newcastle United FC A 3–4 L
04 Jan Manchester United FC H 1–1 D
01 Jan Liverpool FC A 0–0 D
28 Dec Sunderland AFC A 1–1 D
20 Dec Crystal Palace FC H 4–1 W

Key Stats

56% Both Teams to Score
H2H (9 games)
44% Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history
0% Clean Sheets
Derby County FC this season
20% Clean Sheets
Leeds United FC this season

Goal Timing (This Season)

Leeds United FC
0-15
/
16-30
1/1
31-45
/
46-60
/
61-75
1/
76+
/2
■ Scored ■ Conceded

Events

Match Events

Lineups

Derby County FC Lineups

Leeds United FC Lineups

H2H

Predictions

Prediction accuracy
3 / 4
1.19 Derby County FC xG
Expected Goals
Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo
1.52 Leeds United FC xG
I would bet for: Derby County FC or Leeds United FC 73%

Match Result

✓ Correct
Derby County FC28% Draw27% Leeds United FC45%
Actual: Leeds United FC win

Both Teams to Score

✓ Correct
Yes55% 0% No45%
Avg goals/match: 2.71
Actual: Yes — both scored

Over / Under Goals

✓ O/U 2.5
Line Over Under
± 0.5 91%
9%
± 1.5 75%
25%
± 2.5 50%
50%
± 3.5 29%
71%
± 4.5 14%
86%

Double Chance

Derby County FC or Draw
56%
Draw or Leeds United FC
72%
Derby County FC or Leeds United FC
73%

Half-Time Result

✗ Wrong
Derby County FC22% Draw47% Leeds United FC31%
Actual: Derby County FC win at HT

Correct Score

✓ In top 12
1 – 1
13%
0 – 1
9.2%
1 – 2
8.8%
0 – 0
8.6%
0 – 2
7.5%
1 – 0
6.9%
2 – 1
6.9%
2 – 2
5.3%
2 – 0
4.6%
1 – 3
Actual
0 – 3
3.7%
2 – 3
2.8%

Asian Handicap — Derby County FC

Handicap Derby County FC covers Push Leeds United FC covers
-2.5 4% 96%
-2 4% 8% 88%
-1.5 12% 88%
-1 12% 16% 72%
-0.5 28% 72%
+0.5 57% 43%
+1 57% 21% 22%
+1.5 78% 22%
+2 78% 13% 9%
+2.5 91% 9%

Clean Sheet

Derby County FC keeps clean sheet
23%
Leeds United FC keeps clean sheet
31%

Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.