Thursday , 2 July 2026

Oxford United FC vs Derby County FC, League One 2022-23 REGULAR SEASON

League One · 2022-23
Sat 11 Mar 2023 · 15:00 UTC Kassam Stadium HT 45' · FT 45'

Overview

Head-to-Head

2
2
4
Oxford United FC 8 games · Avg 2.3 goals Derby County FC

Recent Form

DateOpponentH/A ScoreResult
11 Mar Derby County FC H 2–3 L
04 Mar Lincoln City FC A 0–1 L
25 Feb Bristol Rovers FC H 0–3 L
18 Feb Cambridge United FC A 0–1 L
14 Feb Plymouth Argyle FC H 1–3 L
11 Feb Milton Keynes Dons FC A 1–1 D
DateOpponentH/A ScoreResult
11 Mar Oxford United FC A 3–2 W
07 Mar Plymouth Argyle FC A 1–2 L
04 Mar Shrewsbury Town FC H 2–2 D
28 Feb Cheltenham Town FC H 2–0 W
25 Feb Barnsley FC A 1–4 L
18 Feb Charlton Athletic FC H 2–0 W

Key Stats

50% Both Teams to Score
H2H (8 games)
38% Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history

Events

Match Events

  • 0' The game is set. Derby County FC kicks off things out of here…
  • 5' Spectators are craving for more action. Both teams play very cautiously. They need to put some more energy.
  • 10' Conor Hourihane has been relatively quiet despite scoring 33 goals in his last 355 appearances.
  • 14' Sam Long is having a superb {COMPETITION} campaign — that is 0 goals this season for the .
  • 19' It looks like no one’s ball. Derby County FC is used to counterattacking playing. None of the sides are ready to take the lead.
  • 23' What an equalizer from Sam Long!
  • 28' The travelling Derby County FC supporters hardly appreciate their team being pressed down to the backline.
  • 33' We miss some good tackles and strikes. Is there anyone on the field to put the game back to action?
  • 38' The referee is likely to let players tackle, as he already missed some meaty challenges during opening seconds. He is still to establish what should not be done by the players and what is acceptable on the pitch. It’s going to be a tough game for James Henry suffering a number of foals already.
  • 39' It’s a booking for Oxford United FC player. Ciaron Brown gets a Yellow card.
  • 40' Louie Sibley has been a constant threat and now delivers with a goal on 40 minutes.
  • 45' A tactical swap from Oxford United FCOisin Smyth on, James Henry off on 45 minutes.
  • 50' Scotland international Craig Forsyth has been a key figure this campaign — 0 goals and 0 assists in the Array this season.
  • 55' It is a cagey affair so far. Oxford United FC in their trying to find a way past Derby County FC's compact .
  • 59' Korey Smith is having his name booked by the referee on 59.
  • 61' James Collins makes no mistake. The score reads 1-3 and Derby County FC are in front.
  • 63' The Derby County FC bench stirs into life. Tony Springett is withdrawn and Tom Barkhuizen gets his opportunity.
  • 66' Oxford United FC make a change. Djavan Anderson trudges off to be replaced by Tyler Goodrham on 66 minutes.
  • 71' Oxford United FC currently sit in the Array table. A result here could be decisive in the race for the top positions.
  • 76' Both teams are passing the ball around with high level of urgency. Derby County FC needs to do something about it to get closer to the goal.
  • 77' The whistle greets Gatlin O'Donkor as he departs to be replaced by Kyle Joseph.
  • 79' Another substitution for Derby County FC to replace Conor Hourihane by Max Bird on 79 minute.
  • 80' Another substitution for Derby County FC to replace Nathaniel Mendez-Laing by Haydon Roberts on 80 minute.
  • 85' Oxford United FC are deployed in a today, looking to exploit space against Derby County FC's shape.
  • 86' Lewis Dobbin gets the nod from Derby County FC. He replaces Louie Sibley and will look to change the dynamic.
  • Another three points for Derby County FC.

Lineups

H2H

Predictions

Prediction accuracy
3 / 4
1.42 Oxford United FC xG
Expected Goals
Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo
1.7 Derby County FC xG
I would bet for: Oxford United FC or Derby County FC 74% + Both teams to score 62%

Match Result

✓ Correct
Oxford United FC31% Draw26% Derby County FC43%
Actual: Derby County FC win

Both Teams to Score

✓ Correct
Yes62% 0% No38%
Avg goals/match: 3.12
Actual: Yes — both scored

Over / Under Goals

✓ O/U 2.5
Line Over Under
± 0.5 94%
6%
± 1.5 82%
18%
± 2.5 59%
41%
± 3.5 38%
62%
± 4.5 21%
79%

Double Chance

Oxford United FC or Draw
57%
Draw or Derby County FC
69%
Oxford United FC or Derby County FC
74%

Half-Time Result

✗ Wrong
Oxford United FC25% Draw43% Derby County FC32%
Actual: Derby County FC win at HT

Correct Score

✓ In top 12
1 – 1
11.6%
1 – 2
8.7%
2 – 1
7.3%
0 – 1
6.7%
0 – 2
6.3%
2 – 2
6.2%
0 – 0
6.1%
1 – 0
5.5%
1 – 3
4.9%
2 – 0
4.4%
2 – 3
Actual
0 – 3
3.5%

Asian Handicap — Oxford United FC

Handicap Oxford United FC covers Push Derby County FC covers
-2.5 5% 95%
-2 5% 9% 85%
-1.5 15% 85%
-1 15% 16% 69%
-0.5 31% 69%
+0.5 57% 43%
+1 57% 20% 23%
+1.5 77% 23%
+2 77% 13% 10%
+2.5 90% 10%

Clean Sheet

Oxford United FC keeps clean sheet
19%
Derby County FC keeps clean sheet
25%

Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.