Sunday , 16 August 2026

Olympique de Marseille vs Montpellier HSC, Ligue 1 2024-25 REGULAR SEASON

Ligue 1 · 2024-25
Sat 19 Apr 2025 · 19:05 UTC Orange Velodrome 66,312 HT 45' · FT 45'
Mason Greenwood pen 9' 1–0
Wilfried Bille og 60' 2–0
Mason Greenwood 67' 3–0
Jonathan Rowe 74' 4–0
4–1 83' Lucas Mincarelli
Adrien Rabiot 90' 5–1

Overview

Match Preview

Olympique de Marseille vs Montpellier HSCLigue 1 at Orange Velodrome.

Match Details

  • Referee Jerome Brisard
  • Assistant 1
  • Assistant 2

Recent Form

DateOpponentH/A ScoreResult
19 Apr Montpellier HSC H 5–1 W
12 Apr AS Monaco FC A 0–3 L
06 Apr Toulouse FC H 3–2 W
29 Mar Stade de Reims A 1–3 L
16 Mar Paris Saint-Germain FC A 1–3 L
08 Mar Racing Club de Lens H 0–1 L
DateOpponentH/A ScoreResult
19 Apr Olympique de Marseille A 1–5 L
13 Apr Angers SCO A 0–2 L
06 Apr Le Havre AC H 0–2 L
30 Mar AJ Auxerre A 0–1 L
08 Mar Lille OSC A 0–1 L
02 Mar Stade Rennais FC 1901 H 0–4 L

Key Stats

71% Both Teams to Score
H2H (21 games)
57% Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history

Events

Match Events

Lineups

H2H

Predictions

Prediction accuracy
4 / 4
2.23 Olympique de Marseille xG
Expected Goals
Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo
0.95 Montpellier HSC xG
I would bet for: Olympique de Marseille to win 64% + Over 2.5 goals 60%

Match Result

✓ Correct
Olympique de Marseille64% Draw21% Montpellier HSC15%
Actual: Olympique de Marseille win

Both Teams to Score

✓ Correct
Yes55% 0% No45%
Avg goals/match: 3.18
Actual: Yes — both scored

Over / Under Goals

✓ O/U 2.5
Line Over Under
± 0.5 94%
6%
± 1.5 82%
18%
± 2.5 60%
40%
± 3.5 39%
61%
± 4.5 22%
78%

Double Chance

Olympique de Marseille or Draw
85%
Draw or Montpellier HSC
36%
Olympique de Marseille or Montpellier HSC
79%

Half-Time Result

✓ Correct
Olympique de Marseille47% Draw40% Montpellier HSC13%
Actual: Olympique de Marseille win at HT

Correct Score

✗ 5–1 not predicted
5 – 1
Actual
2 – 0
10.2%
1 – 1
9.6%
2 – 1
9.5%
1 – 0
8.8%
3 – 0
7.4%
3 – 1
7%
0 – 0
5.7%
2 – 2
4.5%
4 – 0
4.1%
1 – 2
4.1%
4 – 1
4%
3 – 2
3.4%

Asian Handicap — Olympique de Marseille

Handicap Olympique de Marseille covers Push Montpellier HSC covers
-2.5 23% 77%
-2 23% 20% 58%
-1.5 42% 58%
-1 42% 22% 35%
-0.5 65% 35%
+0.5 86% 14%
+1 86% 9% 5%
+1.5 95% 5%
+2 95% 4% 1%
+2.5 99% 1%

Clean Sheet

Olympique de Marseille keeps clean sheet
39%
Montpellier HSC keeps clean sheet
12%

Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.