Italy vs Wales, European Championship 2021 GROUP STAGE
Overview
Match Preview
Italy vs Wales — European Championship at Stadio Olimpico, Rome.
Match Details
- Referee Francois Letexier
- Referee Ovidiu Hategan
- Referee Sebastian Gheorghe
- Referee
- Referee
- Referee Orel Grinfeld
20 games this season
🟨 2.7/game
⚽ 6.8 goals/game
🟥 2 total
Head-to-Head
Recent Form
Key Stats
40%
Both Teams to Score
H2H (5 games)
H2H (5 games)
60%
Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history
H2H history
0%
Clean Sheets
Italy this season
Italy this season
Goal Timing (This Season)
Italy
0-15
1/1
16-30
1/–
31-45
–/1
46-60
–/2
61-75
–/–
76+
1/–
■ Scored ■ Conceded
Top Scorers (This Season)
Italy
| Nicolo Barella | 1 G |
| Alessandro Bastoni | 1 G |
Events
Match Events
- 0' The match kicks off with home fans waiting with anticipation for Italy to score. At the same time, Wales does not seem to pull back! Let’s get it on!
- 5' The referee is likely to let players tackle, as he already missed some meaty challenges during opening seconds. He is still to establish what should not be done by the players and what is acceptable on the pitch. It’s going to be a tough game for Rafael Toloi suffering a number of foals already.
- 10' Spectators are craving for more action. Both teams play very cautiously. They need to put some more energy.
- 15' Spectators do not have much to choose from both teams. The sides had several scoring chances but they still need a bit more than just a sight of a goal.
- 20' Although teams showed high tempo form the start, they seem to slow down a bit. Both sides really need to catch a fire. Otherwise, we have another goalless match.
- 25' Supporters expect more eagerness from Chris Gunter, as he is very good at scoring at Stadio Olimpico, Rome with 0 goals in the last 0 games.
- 30' The teams are not in a rush to score plenty of goals. It might look strange considering Wales that had 152 games and scored 14 goals.
- 35' While there is no rush on the pitch, let’s have a look at some stats. Danny Ward made 354 appearances and scored 0 goals. He is very likely to score a goal today.
- 39' Italy is taking the lead after the goal scored by Matteo Pessina on 39.
- 44' It looks surprising Wales does not make any changes. Ethan Ampadu has some obvious troubles when approaching to the goal.
- 46' Francesco Acerbi is replacing Leonardo Bonucci for the Italy side.
- 51' Wales player sees a Yellow card in front of him.
- 56' Wales player sees a Red card in front of him.
- 60' Time for substitution for Wales. Joe Morrell is replaced by Kieffer Moore.
- 65' Connor Roberts has certainly something to prove this evening. He made 47 appearances with only 0 goals this season.
- 70' Both teams are passing the ball around with high level of urgency. Italy needs to do something about it to get closer to the goal.
- 75' Another substitution for Wales to replace Daniel James by Harry Wilson on 75 minute.
- 79' Italy player sees a Yellow card in front of him.
- 80' That looks like a foul for a Yellow card for Matteo Pessina.
- 85' Wales is defending very well tonight not leaving a chance for their rivals to get through for a goal.
- 86' The Wales manager makes a substitution. Gareth Bale departs to be replaced by David Brooks.
- 87' Italy manager makes another effort to make the tables turned. Gaetano Castrovilli is hanging Matteo Pessina on the field on 87 minute.
- 89' The supporters are chanting for Salvatore Sirigu. He replaces Gianluigi Donnarumma on 89 minute.
- 90' The supporters are chanting for Salvatore Sirigu. He replaces Gianluigi Donnarumma on 90 minute.
- With this win, Italy is likely to improve its situation in the overall team standings.
Lineups
Italy Lineups
Starting XI
-
8
Jorginho ↓ Bryan Cristante 75'
- 13
- 6
- 19
- 20
- 25
- 12
- 21
- 9
- 14
- 23
Bench
-
7
Gaetano Castrovilli ↑ 87'
- 18
- 10
- 26
- 4
-
16
Bryan Cristante ↑ 75'
-
1
Salvatore Sirigu ↑ 89'
- 17
-
15
Francesco Acerbi ↑ 46'
- 5
- 2
-
22
Giacomo Raspadori ↑ 75'
Coach
Roberto Mancini
Wales Lineups
Starting XI
- 2
- 10
- 12
- 15
-
7
Joe Allen ↓ Dylan Levitt 86'
- 6
-
20
Daniel James ↓ Harry Wilson 75'
- 14
-
16
Joe Morrell ↓ Kieffer Moore 60'
-
11
Gareth Bale ↓ David Brooks 86'
-
3
Neco Williams ↓ Ben Davies 86'
Bench
- 17
- 18
- 1
-
19
David Brooks ↑ 86'
-
4
Ben Davies ↑ 86'
-
8
Harry Wilson ↑ 75'
- 21
-
13
Kieffer Moore ↑ 60'
- 22
- 9
- 5
-
23
Dylan Levitt ↑ 86'
Coach
Robert Page
H2H
Predictions
Prediction accuracy
3 / 4
1.37
Italy xG
Expected Goals
Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo
0.88
Wales xG
I would bet for:
Under 2.5 goals 61% + Under — clean sheet likely 55%
Match Result
✓ CorrectActual: Italy win
Both Teams to Score
✓ Correct
Avg goals/match: 2.25
Actual: No — clean sheet
Over / Under Goals
✓ O/U 2.5| Line | Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ± 0.5 | 87% |
|
13% |
| ± 1.5 | 66% |
|
34% |
| ± 2.5 | 39% |
|
61% |
| ± 3.5 | 20% |
|
80% |
| ± 4.5 | 9% |
|
91% |
Double Chance
Italy or Draw
78%
Draw or Wales
50%
Italy or Wales
72%
Half-Time Result
✗ WrongActual: Italy win at HT
Correct Score
✓ In top 12
1 – 1
13.6%
1 – 0
Actual
0 – 0
12.7%
2 – 0
9.5%
2 – 1
8.5%
0 – 1
8%
1 – 2
5.4%
3 – 0
4.3%
3 – 1
3.9%
0 – 2
3.9%
2 – 2
3.8%
3 – 2
1.9%
Asian Handicap — Italy
| Handicap | Italy covers | Push | Wales covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 9% | — | 91% |
| -2 | 9% | 14% | 77% |
| -1.5 | 23% | — | 77% |
| -1 | 23% | 24% | 53% |
| -0.5 | 47% | — | 53% |
| +0.5 | 77% | — | 23% |
| +1 | 77% | 15% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | — | 8% |
| +2 | 92% | 6% | 2% |
| +2.5 | 98% | — | 2% |
Clean Sheet
Italy keeps clean sheet
42%
✗
Wales keeps clean sheet
26%
✓
Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.