FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union, MLS 2021 REGULAR SEASON

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MLS · 2021

FC Cincinnati

1 – 2

Full Time

Philadelphia Union

Sun 10 Oct 2021 · 00:00 UTC TQL Stadium HT 45' · FT 45'

Edgar Castillo 68' Y

Y 80' Matt Freese

Overview

Match Preview

FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union — MLS at TQL Stadium.

FC Cincinnati 26 games · 33 pts (2026/26)
Philadelphia Union 27 games · 39 pts (2026/26)

Standings

#	Team	P	Pts
1	Nashville SC	27	60
2	Internacional CF Miami	27	46
3	New England Revolution	27	46
4	Charlotte FC	27	43
5	Chicago Fire FC	26	42
6	Philadelphia Union	27	39
7	Orlando City SC	27	34
8	New York City FC	27	33
9	FC Cincinnati	26	33
10	New York Red Bulls	26	33
11	D.C. United SC	26	30
12	Columbus Crew SC	27	29
13	Toronto FC	27	29
14	Atlanta United FC	27	27
15	Montreal Impact FC	27	24
16	Vancouver Whitecaps FC	26	50
17	FC Dallas	27	47
18	San Jose Earthquakes	27	45
19	St. Louis City	26	44
20	Houston Dynamo	27	44
21	Los Angeles FC	28	41
22	Colorado Rapids SC	27	36
23	Los Angeles Galaxy	28	36
24	Seattle Sounders FC	26	35
25	San Diego FC	27	32
26	Portland Timbers	27	32
27	Real Salt Lake	27	32
28	Austin FC	27	31
29	Minnesota United FC	27	29
30	Sporting Kansas City	26	21

Head-to-Head

FC Cincinnati 16 games · Avg 2.8 goals Philadelphia Union

Last 5 meetings

2021-10-10 FC Cincinnati 1–2 Philadelphia Union 2020-10-07 Philadelphia Union 3–0 FC Cincinnati 2020-09-23 FC Cincinnati 0–0 Philadelphia Union 2019-05-01 Philadelphia Union 2–0 FC Cincinnati 2019-03-30 FC Cincinnati 0–2 Philadelphia Union

Recent Form

FC Cincinnati

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
10 Oct	Philadelphia Union	H	1–2	L
02 Oct	New York Red Bulls	H	0–1	L
29 Sep	Toronto FC	A	2–3	L
25 Sep	D.C. United SC	A	2–4	L
18 Sep	New York City FC	H	1–2	L
15 Sep	Atlanta United FC	A	0–4	L

Philadelphia Union

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
10 Oct	FC Cincinnati	A	2–1	W
03 Oct	Columbus Crew SC	H	3–0	W
29 Sep	New York Red Bulls	A	1–1	D
25 Sep	Atlanta United FC	H	1–0	W
19 Sep	Orlando City SC	H	3–1	W
03 Sep	New England Revolution	H	0–1	L

Season Stats

FC Cincinnati		Philadelphia Union
#9	Position	#6
33	Points	39
26	Played	27
8 / 9 / 9	W / D / L	11 / 6 / 10
55	Scored	54
64	Conceded	44
-9	GD	+10
1.27	PPG	1.44
31%	Win %	41%

Key Stats

44% Both Teams to Score
H2H (16 games)

50% Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history

15% Clean Sheets
FC Cincinnati this season

26% Clean Sheets
Philadelphia Union this season

FC Cincinnati are 9th (33 pts). Philadelphia Union are 6th (39 pts).

Goal Timing (This Season)

FC Cincinnati

0-15

4/3

16-30

5/9

31-45

9/9

46-60

5/11

61-75

4/4

76+

13/7

■ Scored ■ Conceded

Philadelphia Union

0-15

4/6

16-30

4/7

31-45

6/4

46-60

9/1

61-75

14/3

76+

6/4

■ Scored ■ Conceded

Top Scorers (This Season)

FC Cincinnati

Kevin Denkey	14 G	1 A
Evander	13 G	7 A
Tom Barlow	7 G	2 A
Pavel Bucha	6 G	3 A

Philadelphia Union

Milan Iloski	16 G	2 A
Bruno Damiani	8 G	1 A
Cavan Sullivan	7 G	4 A

Events

Match Events

0' What a night it is going to be! FC Cincinnati welcome Philadelphia Union for this crunch clash at TQL Stadium.
5' It looks like no one’s ball. Philadelphia Union is used to counterattacking playing. None of the sides are ready to take the lead.
10' A tactical chess match is unfolding here. The question is which manager blinks first.
15' A change in the Philadelphia Union ranks — Sergio Santos exits the field as Quinn Sullivan enters on 15.
20' Over 20 minutes have gone by without a meaningful attack. The supporters want more.
25' We are waiting for someone to take the initiative. Who will be the first to commit to attack?
30' A moment of individual brilliance could settle this. Both teams are waiting for that decisive action.
31' Time for substitution for FC Cincinnati. Yuya Kubo is replaced by Isaac Atanga.
36' With 0 assists to his name this season, Przemyslaw Tyton is clearly more than just a goal scorer for Philadelphia Union.
41' Supporters expect more eagerness from Sergio Santos, as he is very good at scoring at TQL Stadium with 5 goals in the last 5 games.
46' Caleb Stanko makes way for Kamohelo Mokotjo at the 46 minute mark. A tactical switch from FC Cincinnati.
48' What a moment for Kacper Przybylko! That strike on 45 puts his side firmly in control.
53' The home supporters are growing impatient. FC Cincinnati must find a spark to ignite this game.
56' Paxten Aaronson has been a constant threat and now delivers with a goal on 56 minutes.
61' Philadelphia Union fans have not had much to celebrate tonight. Their side is struggling to get forward.
65' Alvaro Barreal makes way for Brandon Vazquez at the 65 minute mark. A tactical switch from FC Cincinnati.
66' Another change for Philadelphia Union made on 66 minute. Jack McGlynn leaves to be changed by Matthew Real.
68' Edgar Castillo picks up a Yellow card and will need to be extremely careful for the remainder of this match.
73' A tactical swap from FC Cincinnati — Chris Duvall on, Zico Bailey off on 73 minutes.
78' Both keepers have barely been tested. FC Cincinnati and Philadelphia Union are cancelling each other out in the centre of the park.
80' Matt Freese picks up a Yellow card and will need to be extremely careful for the remainder of this match.
82' What a strike from Haris Medunjanin! The score is 1-2.
84' Another change for Philadelphia Union made on 84 minute. Alejandro Bedoya leaves to be changed by Jesus Bueno.
89' Neither side is committing men forward. This has all the hallmarks of a tense, tactical contest.
FC Cincinnati will have plenty to reflect on. Philadelphia Union were simply the better side today.

Lineups

FC Cincinnati Lineups

Starting XI

3
Tyler Blackett
33
Caleb Stanko ↓ Kamohelo Mokotjo 46'
7
Yuya Kubo ↓ Isaac Atanga 31'
6
Haris Medunjanin
2
Edgar Castillo
11
Luciano Acosta
31
Alvaro Barreal ↓ Brandon Vazquez 65'
16
Zico Bailey ↓ Chris Duvall 73'
22
Przemyslaw Tyton
9
Brenner da Silva
5
Gustavo Vallecilla ↓ Geoff Cameron 31'

Bench

Coach Tyrone Marshall

Philadelphia Union Lineups

Starting XI

Bench

Coach Jim Curtin

H2H

H2H Top Scorers

Player	Goals
Bruno Damiani	5
Tai Baribo	5
Brandon Vazquez	4
Paxten Aaronson	3
Luciano Acosta	3
Alejandro Bedoya	2
Quinn Sullivan	2
Kacper Przybylko	1

Head to Head

FC Cincinnati Form

2021-10-10 FC Cincinnati 1–2 Philadelphia Union L 2021-10-02 FC Cincinnati 0–1 New York Red Bulls L 2021-09-29 Toronto FC 3–2 FC Cincinnati L 2021-09-25 D.C. United SC 4–2 FC Cincinnati L 2021-09-18 FC Cincinnati 1–2 New York City FC L 2021-09-15 Atlanta United FC 4–0 FC Cincinnati L

Philadelphia Union Form

2021-10-10 FC Cincinnati 1–2 Philadelphia Union W 2021-10-03 Philadelphia Union 3–0 Columbus Crew SC W 2021-09-29 New York Red Bulls 1–1 Philadelphia Union D 2021-09-25 Philadelphia Union 1–0 Atlanta United FC W 2021-09-19 Philadelphia Union 3–1 Orlando City SC W 2021-09-03 Philadelphia Union 0–1 New England Revolution L

Predictions

Prediction accuracy

4 / 4

1.53 FC Cincinnati xG

Expected Goals

Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo

2.34 Philadelphia Union xG

I would bet for: Over 2.5 goals 73% + Both teams to score 70%

Match Result

✓ Correct

FC Cincinnati24% Draw22% Philadelphia Union54%

Actual: Philadelphia Union win

Both Teams to Score

✓ Correct

Yes70% 0% No30%

Avg goals/match: 3.87

Actual: Yes — both scored

Over / Under Goals

✓ O/U 2.5

Line	Over	Under
± 0.5	97%	3%
± 1.5	90%	10%
± 2.5	73%	27%
± 3.5	53%	47%
± 4.5	34%	66%

Double Chance

FC Cincinnati or Draw

46%

Draw or Philadelphia Union

76%

FC Cincinnati or Philadelphia Union

78%

Half-Time Result

✓ Correct

FC Cincinnati21% Draw38% Philadelphia Union41%

Actual: Philadelphia Union win at HT

Correct Score

✓ In top 12

1 – 2

Actual

1 – 1

8.3%

1 – 3

6.5%

2 – 2

6.4%

0 – 2

5.8%

2 – 1

5.6%

2 – 3

0 – 1

4.5%

0 – 3

4.4%

1 – 4

3.8%

3 – 2

3.3%

0 – 0

3.2%

Asian Handicap — FC Cincinnati

Handicap	FC Cincinnati covers	Push	Philadelphia Union covers
-2.5	4%	—	96%
-2	4%	7%	89%
-1.5	11%	—	89%
-1	11%	13%	76%
-0.5	24%	—	76%
+0.5	46%	—	54%
+1	46%	20%	35%
+1.5	65%	—	35%
+2	65%	16%	18%
+2.5	82%	—	18%

Clean Sheet

FC Cincinnati keeps clean sheet

11% ✓

Philadelphia Union keeps clean sheet

22% ✓

Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.