Thursday , 2 July 2026

Derby County FC vs Cheltenham Town FC, League One 2023-24 REGULAR SEASON

League One · 2023-24
Sat 27 Jan 2024 · 15:00 UTC Pride Park Stadium 27,014 HT 45' · FT 45'
0–1 50' Liam Sercombe
Max Bird 60' 1–1
James Collins 81' 2–1

Overview

Match Preview

Derby County FC vs Cheltenham Town FCLeague One at Pride Park Stadium.

Match Details

  • Referee Leigh Doughty
  • Assistant 1 Rob Smith
  • Assistant 2 Adam Crysell

Recent Form

DateOpponentH/A ScoreResult
27 Jan Cheltenham Town FC H 2–1 W
23 Jan Reading FC A 0–1 L
20 Jan Lincoln City FC A 0–0 D
15 Jan Burton Albion FC H 3–2 W
06 Jan Fleetwood Town FC A 3–1 W
01 Jan Peterborough United FC H 2–3 L
DateOpponentH/A ScoreResult
27 Jan Derby County FC A 1–2 L
23 Jan Bolton Wanderers FC A 0–1 L
06 Jan Portsmouth FC H 2–1 W
01 Jan Northampton Town FC A 0–1 L
29 Dec Reading FC H 2–2 D
26 Dec Shrewsbury Town FC H 2–0 W

Key Stats

75% Both Teams to Score
H2H (4 games)
50% Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history

Events

Match Events

  • 0' The stage is set the green flag drops! Another match against Derby County FC and Cheltenham Town FC has kicked off!
  • 5' It looks surprising Cheltenham Town FC does not make any changes. Liam Sercombe has some obvious troubles when approaching to the goal.
  • 10' While there is no rush on the pitch, let’s have a look at some stats. George Lloyd made 145 appearances and scored 7 goals. He is very likely to score a goal today.
  • 15' While players are taking a pause, let’s have a look at their stats. The teams met 0 times this season with winning -% of all matches.
  • 20' Although teams showed high tempo form the start, they seem to slow down a bit. Both sides really need to catch a fire. Otherwise, we have another goalless match.
  • 25' The travelling Cheltenham Town FC supporters hardly appreciate their team being pressed down to the backline.
  • 30' The referee is likely to let players tackle, as he already missed some meaty challenges during opening seconds. He is still to establish what should not be done by the players and what is acceptable on the pitch. It’s going to be a tough game for Lewis Freestone suffering a number of foals already.
  • 35' Derby County FC is showing some good football. However, Derby County FC are ready to play back every minute. It might result in some problems for the home side. The game will hardly remain goalless.
  • 40' Sean Long needs to be pretty careful with his discipline considering 0 Yellow cards this season.
  • 45' Spectators are craving for more action. Both teams play very cautiously. They need to put some more energy.
  • 46' The whistle greets Robert Street as he departs to be replaced by Aidan Keena.
  • 50' Goal! Liam Sercombe scores his 21 goal in 291 matches.
  • 55' Cheltenham Town FC player sees a card in front of him.
  • 60' GOAL! Max Bird scores on 60.
  • 63' Another substitution for Derby County FC to replace Thomas Barkhuizen by Sonny Bradley on 63 minute.
  • 64' Time for substitution for Derby County FC. Corey Blackett-Taylor is replaced by Liam Thompson.
  • 65' Time for substitution for Cheltenham Town FC. Elliot Bonds is replaced by Josh Harrop.
  • 70' A meaty challenge results in booking for Sean Long on 70.
  • 75' Spectators do not have much to choose from both teams. The sides had several scoring chances but they still need a bit more than just a sight of a goal.
  • 77' The supporters are chanting for Curtis Thompson. He replaces Tom Pett on 77 minute.
  • 81' Goal! James Collins scores his 91 goal in 382 matches.
  • 84' The supporters are chanting for Nathan Butler-Oyedeji. He replaces Will Ferry on 84 minute.
  • 89' Derby County FC player sees a card in front of him.
  • The referee blows the final whistle. Sensational lose for Cheltenham Town FC.

Lineups

H2H

Predictions

Prediction accuracy
4 / 4
1.64 Derby County FC xG
Expected Goals
Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo
1.07 Cheltenham Town FC xG
I would bet for: Markets are evenly balanced — no clear value pick.

Match Result

✓ Correct
Derby County FC53% Draw25% Cheltenham Town FC22%
Actual: Derby County FC win

Both Teams to Score

✓ Correct
Yes53% 0% No47%
Avg goals/match: 2.71
Actual: Yes — both scored

Over / Under Goals

✓ O/U 2.5
Line Over Under
± 0.5 91%
9%
± 1.5 75%
25%
± 2.5 50%
50%
± 3.5 29%
71%
± 4.5 15%
85%

Double Chance

Derby County FC or Draw
78%
Draw or Cheltenham Town FC
47%
Derby County FC or Cheltenham Town FC
75%

Half-Time Result

✓ Correct
Derby County FC35% Draw46% Cheltenham Town FC19%
Actual: Draw at HT

Correct Score

✓ In top 12
1 – 1
12.6%
1 – 0
10%
2 – 1
Actual
2 – 0
8.7%
0 – 0
8.6%
0 – 1
6.1%
1 – 2
6%
3 – 1
5.1%
2 – 2
5%
3 – 0
4.7%
0 – 2
3.7%
3 – 2
2.8%

Asian Handicap — Derby County FC

Handicap Derby County FC covers Push Cheltenham Town FC covers
-2.5 11% 89%
-2 11% 15% 73%
-1.5 27% 73%
-1 27% 23% 51%
-0.5 49% 51%
+0.5 76% 24%
+1 76% 14% 9%
+1.5 91% 9%
+2 91% 6% 3%
+2.5 97% 3%

Clean Sheet

Derby County FC keeps clean sheet
35%
Cheltenham Town FC keeps clean sheet
20%

Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.