Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus, J. League 2023 REGULAR SEASON

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J. League · 2023

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

3 – 1

Full Time

Nagoya Grampus

Sat 30 Sep 2023 · 10:00 UTC EDION Stadium Hiroshima HT 45' · FT 45'

0–1 57' Kasper Junker

Shinnosuke Nakatani og 72' 1–1

Douglas Vieira pen 81' 2–1

Ezequiel 85' 3–1

Y 38' Ryoya Morishita

Y 48' Takuya Uchida

Y 77' Mitch Langerak

Y 77' Akinari Kawazura

Ezequiel 86' Y

Overview

Match Preview

Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus — J. League at EDION Stadium Hiroshima.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 18 games · 30 pts (2026/27)
Nagoya Grampus 18 games · 31 pts (2026/27)

Standings

#	Team	P	Pts
1	Vissel Kobe	18	35
2	Cerezo Osaka FC	18	31
3	Nagoya Grampus	18	31
4	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	18	30
5	Gamba Osaka	18	28
6	Fagiano Okayama FC	18	26
7	Shimizu S-Pulse	18	24
8	Kyōto Sanga FC	18	23
9	V-Varen Nagasaki	18	21
10	Avispa Fukuoka	18	21
11	Kashima Antlers	18	45
12	FC Tōkyō	18	37
13	FC Machida Zelvia	18	37
14	Kawasaki Frontale	18	28
15	Tōkyō Verdy	18	28
16	Urawa Red Diamonds	18	25
17	Kashiwa Reysol	18	20
18	Yokohama F·Marinos	18	20
19	FC Mito Holly Hock	18	18
20	JEF United Ichihara Chiba	18	12

Head-to-Head

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 21 games · Avg 2.5 goals Nagoya Grampus

Last 5 meetings

2023-09-30 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3–1 Nagoya Grampus 2023-05-20 Nagoya Grampus 2–1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2022-09-17 Nagoya Grampus 0–0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2022-05-28 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1–0 Nagoya Grampus 2021-10-03 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1–0 Nagoya Grampus

Recent Form

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
30 Sep	Nagoya Grampus	H	3–1	W
23 Sep	Kyōto Sanga FC	A	0–1	L
16 Sep	Vissel Kobe	H	2–0	W
02 Sep	Sagan Tosu FC	A	2–0	W
26 Aug	Kashiwa Reysol	A	0–0	D
19 Aug	Kawasaki Frontale	H	3–2	W

Nagoya Grampus

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
30 Sep	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	A	1–3	L
23 Sep	Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo	H	1–1	D
16 Sep	Avispa Fukuoka	A	0–1	L
02 Sep	Yokohama FC	H	1–1	D
26 Aug	Cerezo Osaka FC	A	1–3	L
18 Aug	Urawa Red Diamonds	A	0–1	L

Season Stats

Sanfrecce Hiroshima		Nagoya Grampus
#4	Position	#3
30	Points	31
18	Played	18
10 / 0 / 8	W / D / L	10 / 0 / 8
41	Scored	46
33	Conceded	44
+8	GD	+2
1.67	PPG	1.72
56%	Win %	56%

Key Stats

52% Both Teams to Score
H2H (21 games)

52% Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history

62% Clean Sheets
Sanfrecce Hiroshima this season

0% Clean Sheets
Nagoya Grampus this season

Sanfrecce Hiroshima are 4th (30 pts). Nagoya Grampus are 3rd (31 pts).

Goal Timing (This Season)

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

0-15

1/1

16-30

4/2

31-45

4/2

46-60

7/2

61-75

7/1

76+

6/2

■ Scored ■ Conceded

Nagoya Grampus

0-15

5/3

16-30

–/2

31-45

2/5

46-60

2/3

61-75

2/3

76+

4/5

■ Scored ■ Conceded

Top Scorers (This Season)

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Akito Suzuki	10 G	4 A
Mutsuki Kato	3 G	3 A
Shuto Nakano	3 G	2 A
Shun Ayukawa	3 G	1 A
Sebastien Haller	3 G	1 A

Nagoya Grampus

Yuya Yamagishi	3 G
Takuya Uchida	2 G	1 A
Yudai Kimura	2 G	1 A
Naomichi Ueda	1 G	1 A

Events

Match Events

0' The wait is over. Sanfrecce Hiroshima get us underway at EDION Stadium Hiroshima.
5' The energy levels are beginning to show. Michael Skibbe might look to freshen things up shortly.
10' Neither side is committing men forward. This has all the hallmarks of a tense, tactical contest.
15' Nagoya Grampus have won 405 goals from 447 games. They will be desperate to add to that tally today.
20' The referee is likely to let players tackle, as he already missed some meaty challenges during opening seconds. He is still to establish what should not be done by the players and what is acceptable on the pitch. It’s going to be a tough game for Takaaki Shichi suffering a number of foals already.
25' Nagoya Grampus started playing very sharply right from the kick off. However, it slowed down the tempo rapidly by 25.
30' Thales Paula is a natural and has been asked to do a very specific job for Nagoya Grampus tonight.
35' Spectators do not have much to choose from both teams. The sides had several scoring chances but they still need a bit more than just a sight of a goal.
38' It’s a booking for Nagoya Grampus player. Ryoya Morishita gets a card.
43' will be watching from the dugout nervously. His Sanfrecce Hiroshima side need to improve if they are to claim all three points.
46' A tactical swap from Nagoya Grampus — Takuya Uchida on, Tsukasa Morishima off on 46 minutes.
48' The referee shows Nagoya Grampus player a card on 48.
53' Tsukasa Morishima has been disciplined this evening — perhaps mindful of those 16 cards already picked up this season.
57' Kasper Junker has been a constant threat and now delivers with a goal on 57 minutes.
62' We are waiting for someone to take the initiative. Who will be the first to commit to attack?
63' Marcos Junior makes way for Ezequiel at the 63 minute mark. A tactical switch from Sanfrecce Hiroshima.
68' The tempo has dropped considerably in the last few minutes. Michael Skibbe will be considering his options from the bench.
71' Another substitution for Sanfrecce Hiroshima to replace Shuto Nakano by Sota Koshimichi on 71 minute.
72' Shinnosuke Nakatani doubles the advantage! 0-2 and this game is slipping away from the opposition.
74' Another substitution for Nagoya Grampus to replace Kasper Junker by Taika Nakashima on 74 minute.
77' Poor challenge from Mitch Langerak. The referee spots it immediately and shows the card.
81' GOAL! Douglas Vieira fires home to make it 1-2!
82' Riku Yamada is replacing Ryuji Izumi for the Nagoya Grampus side.
85' Brilliant from the ! Ezequiel makes it 2-2 with a superb finish on 85.
86' The referee calls foul for Ezequiel. He receives a card.
89' The Sanfrecce Hiroshima manager makes a substitution. Mutsuki Kato departs to be replaced by Taishi Matsumoto.
Full Time. Sanfrecce Hiroshima beats Nagoya Grampus

Lineups

Sanfrecce Hiroshima Lineups

3-4-2-1

Starting XI

Bench

14
Ezequiel ↑ 63'
22
Goro Kawanami
7
Gakuto Notsuda
17
Taishi Matsumoto ↑ 89'
24
Shunki Higashi ↑ 71'
9
Douglas Vieira ↑ 63'
32
Sota Koshimichi ↑ 71'

Coach Michael Skibbe

Nagoya Grampus Lineups

3-1-4-2

Starting XI

1
Mitch Langerak
2
Yuki Nogami ↓ Thales Paula 74'
14
Tsukasa Morishima ↓ Takuya Uchida 46'
15
Sho Inagaki
25
Naoki Maeda ↓ Kensuke Nagai 46'
13
Haruya Fujii
7
Ryuji Izumi ↓ Riku Yamada 82'
4
Shinnosuke Nakatani
17
Ryoya Morishita
77
Kasper Junker ↓ Taika Nakashima 74'
24
Akinari Kawazura

Bench

34
Takuya Uchida ↑ 46'
18
Kensuke Nagai ↑ 46'
3
Yuichi Maruyama
16
Yohei Takeda
27
Taika Nakashima ↑ 74'
35
Riku Yamada ↑ 82'
21
Thales Paula ↑ 74'

Coach Kenta Hasegawa

H2H

H2H Top Scorers

Player	Goals
Mateus	4
Kasper Junker	4
Naoki Maeda	3
Mutsuki Kato	2
Akito Suzuki	2
Shuto Nakano	2
Gakuto Notsuda	2
Hayao Kawabe	1

Head to Head

Sanfrecce Hiroshima Form

2023-09-30 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3–1 Nagoya Grampus W 2023-09-23 Kyōto Sanga FC 1–0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima L 2023-09-16 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2–0 Vissel Kobe W 2023-09-02 Sagan Tosu FC 0–2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima W 2023-08-26 Kashiwa Reysol 0–0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima D 2023-08-19 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3–2 Kawasaki Frontale W

Nagoya Grampus Form

2023-09-30 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3–1 Nagoya Grampus L 2023-09-23 Nagoya Grampus 1–1 Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo D 2023-09-16 Avispa Fukuoka 1–0 Nagoya Grampus L 2023-09-02 Nagoya Grampus 1–1 Yokohama FC D 2023-08-26 Cerezo Osaka FC 3–1 Nagoya Grampus L 2023-08-18 Urawa Red Diamonds 1–0 Nagoya Grampus L

Predictions

Prediction accuracy

3 / 4

2.48 Sanfrecce Hiroshima xG

Expected Goals

Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo

1.38 Nagoya Grampus xG

I would bet for: Over 2.5 goals 73% + Both teams to score 68%

Match Result

✓ Correct

Sanfrecce Hiroshima61% Draw20% Nagoya Grampus19%

Actual: Sanfrecce Hiroshima win

Both Teams to Score

✓ Correct

Yes68% 0% No32%

Avg goals/match: 3.86

Actual: Yes — both scored

Over / Under Goals

✓ O/U 2.5

Line	Over	Under
± 0.5	97%	3%
± 1.5	89%	11%
± 2.5	73%	27%
± 3.5	53%	47%
± 4.5	34%	66%

Double Chance

Sanfrecce Hiroshima or Draw

81%

Draw or Nagoya Grampus

39%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima or Nagoya Grampus

80%

Half-Time Result

✗ Wrong

Sanfrecce Hiroshima45% Draw37% Nagoya Grampus18%

Actual: Draw at HT

Correct Score

✓ In top 12

2 – 1

8.7%

1 – 1

3 – 1

Actual

2 – 0

6.6%

2 – 2

5.9%

3 – 0

5.3%

1 – 2

4.9%

3 – 2

4.9%

1 – 0

4.9%

4 – 1

4.4%

0 – 0

3.3%

4 – 0

3.2%

Asian Handicap — Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Handicap	Sanfrecce Hiroshima covers	Push	Nagoya Grampus covers
-2.5	22%	—	78%
-2	22%	18%	60%
-1.5	40%	—	60%
-1	40%	20%	40%
-0.5	60%	—	40%
+0.5	80%	—	20%
+1	80%	11%	9%
+1.5	91%	—	9%
+2	91%	6%	3%
+2.5	97%	—	3%

Clean Sheet

Sanfrecce Hiroshima keeps clean sheet

26% ✓

Nagoya Grampus keeps clean sheet

9% ✓

Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.