Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus, J. League 2023 REGULAR SEASON

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J. League · 2023

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

3 – 1

Full Time

Nagoya Grampus

Sat 30 Sep 2023 · 10:00 UTC EDION Stadium Hiroshima HT 45' · FT 45'

0–1 57' Kasper Junker

Shinnosuke Nakatani og 72' 1–1

Douglas Vieira pen 81' 2–1

Ezequiel 85' 3–1

Y 38' Ryoya Morishita

Y 48' Takuya Uchida

Y 77' Mitch Langerak

Y 77' Akinari Kawazura

Ezequiel 86' Y

Overview

Match Preview

Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus — J. League at EDION Stadium Hiroshima.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 18 games · 30 pts (2026/27)
Nagoya Grampus 18 games · 31 pts (2026/27)

Standings

#	Team	P	Pts
1	Vissel Kobe	18	35
2	Cerezo Osaka FC	18	31
3	Nagoya Grampus	18	31
4	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	18	30
5	Gamba Osaka	18	28
6	Fagiano Okayama FC	18	26
7	Shimizu S-Pulse	18	24
8	Kyoto Sanga FC	18	23
9	V-Varen Nagasaki	18	21
10	Avispa Fukuoka	18	21
11	Kashima Antlers	18	45
12	FC Tokyo	18	37
13	FC Machida Zelvia	18	37
14	Kawasaki Frontale	18	28
15	Tokyo Verdy	18	28
16	Urawa Red Diamonds	18	25
17	Kashiwa Reysol	18	20
18	Yokohama F.Marinos	18	20
19	FC Mito Holly Hock	18	18
20	JEF United Ichihara Chiba	18	12

Head-to-Head

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 20 games · Avg 2.5 goals Nagoya Grampus

Last 5 meetings

2023-09-30 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3–1 Nagoya Grampus 2023-05-20 Nagoya Grampus 2–1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2022-09-17 Nagoya Grampus 0–0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2022-05-28 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1–0 Nagoya Grampus 2021-10-03 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1–0 Nagoya Grampus

Recent Form

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
30 Sep	Nagoya Grampus	H	3–1	W
23 Sep	Kyoto Sanga FC	A	0–1	L
16 Sep	Vissel Kobe	H	2–0	W
02 Sep	Sagan Tosu FC	A	2–0	W
26 Aug	Kashiwa Reysol	A	0–0	D
19 Aug	Kawasaki Frontale	H	3–2	W

Nagoya Grampus

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
30 Sep	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	A	1–3	L
23 Sep	Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo	H	1–1	D
16 Sep	Avispa Fukuoka	A	0–1	L
02 Sep	Yokohama FC	H	1–1	D
26 Aug	Cerezo Osaka FC	A	1–3	L
18 Aug	Urawa Red Diamonds	A	0–1	L

Season Stats

Sanfrecce Hiroshima		Nagoya Grampus
#4	Position	#3
30	Points	31
18	Played	18
10 / 0 / 8	W / D / L	10 / 0 / 8
41	Scored	46
33	Conceded	44
+8	GD	+2
1.67	PPG	1.72
56%	Win %	56%

Key Stats

55% Both Teams to Score
H2H (20 games)

50% Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history

0% Clean Sheets
Sanfrecce Hiroshima this season

0% Clean Sheets
Nagoya Grampus this season

Sanfrecce Hiroshima are 4th (30 pts). Nagoya Grampus are 3rd (31 pts).

Goal Timing (This Season)

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

0-15

–/–

16-30

1/1

31-45

1/–

46-60

–/–

61-75

2/–

76+

–/–

■ Scored ■ Conceded

Nagoya Grampus

0-15

–/–

16-30

–/1

31-45

–/–

46-60

1/–

61-75

–/–

76+

–/1

■ Scored ■ Conceded

Events

Match Events

0' Both captains have shaken hands and the referee is ready. We are underway at EDION Stadium Hiroshima!
5' Thales Paula has been relatively quiet despite scoring 0 goals in his last 439 appearances.
10' It looks surprising Sanfrecce Hiroshima does not make any changes. Marcos Junior has some obvious troubles when approaching to the goal.
15' Spectators are craving for more action. Both teams play very cautiously. They need to put some more energy.
20' Nagoya Grampus started playing very sharply right from the kick off. However, it slowed down the tempo rapidly by 20.
25' A tactical chess match is unfolding here. The question is which manager blinks first.
30' Takumu Kawamura has been one of the livelier players on the pitch with 0 goals to his name this season.
35' Sanfrecce Hiroshima have won 427 goals from 335 games. They will be desperate to add to that tally today.
38' The referee has no hesitation. Ryoya Morishita is booked for Nagoya Grampus — card on 38.
43' named a 3-4-2-1 earlier, and opted for a 3-1-4-2 in response. A fascinating tactical duel is developing.
46' A tactical swap from Nagoya Grampus — Takuya Uchida on, Tsukasa Morishima off on 46 minutes.
48' The referee shows Nagoya Grampus player a card on 48.
53' Yuki Nogami, a Japan , has 0 bookings this season and will need to keep his discipline tonight.
57' Kasper Junker does the damage! The net is bulging and Nagoya Grampus surge ahead!
62' Nagoya Grampus has dominated the recent head-to-head record, winning 1 of the last 2 meetings.
63' Ezequiel gets the nod from Sanfrecce Hiroshima. He replaces Marcos Junior and will look to change the dynamic.
68' We miss some good tackles and strikes. Is there anyone on the field to put the game back to action?
71' Another change for Sanfrecce Hiroshima made on 71 minute. Shuto Nakano leaves to be changed by Sota Koshimichi.
72' Shinnosuke Nakatani does the damage! The net is bulging and Nagoya Grampus surge ahead!
74' Fresh legs for Nagoya Grampus! Taika Nakashima comes on to replace Kasper Junker.
77' A moment of madness from Mitch Langerak on 77 minutes earns him a card. Nagoya Grampus will be frustrated.
81' Douglas Vieira is having a superb {COMPETITION} campaign — that is 0 goals this season for the .
82' Riku Yamada gets the nod from Nagoya Grampus. He replaces Ryuji Izumi and will look to change the dynamic.
85' What an equalizer from Ezequiel!
86' It’s a booking for Sanfrecce Hiroshima player. Ezequiel gets a card.
89' Another substitution for Sanfrecce Hiroshima to replace Mutsuki Kato by Taishi Matsumoto on 89 minute.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima celebrates a vital win. Three points that could prove pivotal come season's end.

Lineups

Sanfrecce Hiroshima Lineups

3-4-2-1

Starting XI

Bench

14
Ezequiel ↑ 63'
22
Goro Kawanami
7
Gakuto Notsuda
17
Taishi Matsumoto ↑ 89'
24
Shunki Higashi ↑ 71'
9
Douglas Vieira ↑ 63'
32
Sota Koshimichi ↑ 71'

Coach Michael Skibbe

Nagoya Grampus Lineups

3-1-4-2

Starting XI

1
Mitch Langerak
2
Yuki Nogami ↓ Thales Paula 74'
14
Tsukasa Morishima ↓ Takuya Uchida 46'
15
Sho Inagaki
25
Naoki Maeda ↓ Kensuke Nagai 46'
13
Haruya Fujii
7
Ryuji Izumi ↓ Riku Yamada 82'
4
Shinnosuke Nakatani
17
Ryoya Morishita
77
Kasper Junker ↓ Taika Nakashima 74'
24
Akinari Kawazura

Bench

34
Takuya Uchida ↑ 46'
18
Kensuke Nagai ↑ 46'
3
Yuichi Maruyama
16
Yohei Takeda
27
Taika Nakashima ↑ 74'
35
Riku Yamada ↑ 82'
21
Thales Paula ↑ 74'

Coach Kenta Hasegawa

H2H

H2H Top Scorers

Player	Goals
Mateus	4
Kasper Junker	4
Naoki Maeda	3
Shuto Nakano	2
Gakuto Notsuda	2
Hayato Araki	1
Jo	1
Hayao Kawabe	1

Head to Head

Sanfrecce Hiroshima Form

2023-09-30 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3–1 Nagoya Grampus W 2023-09-23 Kyoto Sanga FC 1–0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima L 2023-09-16 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2–0 Vissel Kobe W 2023-09-02 Sagan Tosu FC 0–2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima W 2023-08-26 Kashiwa Reysol 0–0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima D 2023-08-19 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3–2 Kawasaki Frontale W

Nagoya Grampus Form

2023-09-30 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3–1 Nagoya Grampus L 2023-09-23 Nagoya Grampus 1–1 Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo D 2023-09-16 Avispa Fukuoka 1–0 Nagoya Grampus L 2023-09-02 Nagoya Grampus 1–1 Yokohama FC D 2023-08-26 Cerezo Osaka FC 3–1 Nagoya Grampus L 2023-08-18 Urawa Red Diamonds 1–0 Nagoya Grampus L

Predictions

Prediction accuracy

3 / 4

2.48 Sanfrecce Hiroshima xG

Expected Goals

Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo

1.38 Nagoya Grampus xG

I would bet for: Over 2.5 goals 73% + Both teams to score 68%

Match Result

✓ Correct

Sanfrecce Hiroshima61% Draw20% Nagoya Grampus19%

Actual: Sanfrecce Hiroshima win

Both Teams to Score

✓ Correct

Yes68% 0% No32%

Avg goals/match: 3.86

Actual: Yes — both scored

Over / Under Goals

✓ O/U 2.5

Line	Over	Under
± 0.5	97%	3%
± 1.5	89%	11%
± 2.5	73%	27%
± 3.5	53%	47%
± 4.5	34%	66%

Double Chance

Sanfrecce Hiroshima or Draw

81%

Draw or Nagoya Grampus

39%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima or Nagoya Grampus

80%

Half-Time Result

✗ Wrong

Sanfrecce Hiroshima45% Draw37% Nagoya Grampus18%

Actual: Draw at HT

Correct Score

✓ In top 12

2 – 1

8.7%

1 – 1

3 – 1

Actual

2 – 0

6.6%

2 – 2

5.9%

3 – 0

5.3%

1 – 2

4.9%

3 – 2

4.9%

1 – 0

4.9%

4 – 1

4.4%

0 – 0

3.3%

4 – 0

3.2%

Asian Handicap — Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Handicap	Sanfrecce Hiroshima covers	Push	Nagoya Grampus covers
-2.5	22%	—	78%
-2	22%	18%	60%
-1.5	40%	—	60%
-1	40%	20%	40%
-0.5	60%	—	40%
+0.5	80%	—	20%
+1	80%	11%	9%
+1.5	91%	—	9%
+2	91%	6%	3%
+2.5	97%	—	3%

Clean Sheet

Sanfrecce Hiroshima keeps clean sheet

26% ✓

Nagoya Grampus keeps clean sheet

9% ✓

Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.