FC Tōkyō vs Nagoya Grampus, J. League 2025 REGULAR SEASON

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J. League · 2025

FC Tōkyō

3 – 1

Full Time

Nagoya Grampus

Wed 26 Feb 2025 · 10:00 UTC Ajinomoto Stadium HT 45' · FT 45'

Y 89' Kensuke Nagai

Kei Koizumi 90' Y

Overview

Match Preview

FC Tōkyō vs Nagoya Grampus — J. League at Ajinomoto Stadium.

FC Tōkyō 18 games · 37 pts (2026/27)
Nagoya Grampus 18 games · 31 pts (2026/27)

Standings

#	Team	P	Pts
1	Vissel Kobe	18	35
2	Cerezo Osaka FC	18	31
3	Nagoya Grampus	18	31
4	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	18	30
5	Gamba Osaka	18	28
6	Fagiano Okayama FC	18	26
7	Shimizu S-Pulse	18	24
8	Kyōto Sanga FC	18	23
9	V-Varen Nagasaki	18	21
10	Avispa Fukuoka	18	21
11	Kashima Antlers	18	45
12	FC Tōkyō	18	37
13	FC Machida Zelvia	18	37
14	Kawasaki Frontale	18	28
15	Tōkyō Verdy	18	28
16	Urawa Red Diamonds	18	25
17	Kashiwa Reysol	18	20
18	Yokohama F·Marinos	18	20
19	FC Mito Holly Hock	18	18
20	JEF United Ichihara Chiba	18	12

Head-to-Head

FC Tōkyō 24 games · Avg 2.3 goals Nagoya Grampus

Last 5 meetings

2025-02-26 FC Tōkyō 3–1 Nagoya Grampus 2024-09-14 FC Tōkyō 4–1 Nagoya Grampus 2024-05-15 Nagoya Grampus 3–1 FC Tōkyō 2023-06-24 FC Tōkyō 2–0 Nagoya Grampus 2023-03-18 Nagoya Grampus 0–0 FC Tōkyō

Recent Form

FC Tōkyō

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
26 Feb	Nagoya Grampus	H	3–1	W
22 Feb	FC Machida Zelvia	H	0–1	L
15 Feb	Yokohama FC	A	1–0	W
08 Dec	Cerezo Osaka FC	H	3–0	W
30 Nov	Júbilo Iwata	A	1–2	L
09 Nov	FC Machida Zelvia	A	0–3	L

Nagoya Grampus

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
26 Feb	FC Tōkyō	A	1–3	L
22 Feb	Vissel Kobe	H	2–2	D
15 Feb	Kawasaki Frontale	A	0–4	L
08 Dec	Yokohama F·Marinos	A	2–0	W
30 Nov	Sagan Tosu FC	H	0–3	L
09 Nov	Kashima Antlers	A	0–0	D

Season Stats

FC Tōkyō		Nagoya Grampus
#12	Position	#3
37	Points	31
18	Played	18
13 / 0 / 5	W / D / L	10 / 0 / 8
55	Scored	46
42	Conceded	44
+13	GD	+2
2.06	PPG	1.72
72%	Win %	56%

Key Stats

54% Both Teams to Score
H2H (24 games)

46% Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history

50% Clean Sheets
FC Tōkyō this season

0% Clean Sheets
Nagoya Grampus this season

FC Tōkyō are 12th (37 pts). Nagoya Grampus are 3rd (31 pts).

Goal Timing (This Season)

FC Tōkyō

0-15

–/–

16-30

–/–

31-45

1/1

46-60

–/–

61-75

2/–

76+

1/1

■ Scored ■ Conceded

Nagoya Grampus

0-15

–/–

16-30

–/1

31-45

–/–

46-60

1/–

61-75

–/–

76+

–/1

■ Scored ■ Conceded

Events

Match Events

0' Temperatures are rising at Ajinomoto Stadium as FC Tōkyō face off against Nagoya Grampus in what promises to be a fascinating contest.
5' Although teams showed high tempo form the start, they seem to slow down a bit. Both sides really need to catch a fire. Otherwise, we have another goalless match.
10' Both teams are passing the ball around with high level of urgency. Nagoya Grampus needs to do something about it to get closer to the goal.
15' Spectators are craving for more action. Both teams play very cautiously. They need to put some more energy.
20' A moment of individual brilliance could settle this. Both teams are waiting for that decisive action.
25' Kei Koizumi has been relatively quiet despite scoring 7 goals in his last 412 appearances.
30' FC Tōkyō seems to be on a short break. The game is mainly concentrated in the center. It’s high time they got back to action. Otherwise, it looks like a goalless game.
31' Keita Yamashita makes no mistake. The score reads 0-1 and FC Tokyo are in front.
36' Nagoya Grampus is defending very well tonight not leaving a chance for their rivals to get through for a goal.
41' It is a substitution in Nagoya Grampus team. Teruki Hara is replaced by Yuya Asano on 41 minute.
46' Nagoya Grampus are happy to let the opposition have the ball in their own half. The trap is set.
51' Supporters expect more eagerness from Gen Kato, as he is very good at scoring at Ajinomoto Stadium with 0 goals in the last 0 games.
56' Teppei Oka, a Japan , has 0 bookings this season and will need to keep his discipline tonight.
59' Kein Sato has been a constant threat and now delivers with a goal on 59 minutes.
61' FC Tokyo ring the changes. Keita Yamashita has done his job and it is now time for Marcelo Ryan to step up.
64' Assisted by Yuya Yamagishi with the perfectly-timed delivery and Keiya Shiihashi makes no mistake. 0-3!
69' We are waiting for someone to take the initiative. Who will be the first to commit to attack?
74' FC Tōkyō currently sit in the Array table. A result here could be decisive in the race for the top positions.
75' It is a substitution in Nagoya Grampus team. Ryuji Izumi is replaced by Kensuke Nagai on 75 minute.
80' Soma Anzai needs to be pretty careful with his discipline considering 7 Yellow cards this season.
84' The whistle greets Mateus as he departs to be replaced by Tsukasa Morishima.
89' Kensuke Nagai is having his name booked by the referee on 89.
90' FC Tokyo player sees a card in front of him.
90' A tactical swap from FC Tokyo — Teruhito Nakagawa on, Kein Sato off on 90 minutes.
Both sets of fans can go home satisfied — a 3-1 draw is a fair result on the day.

Lineups

FC Tōkyō Lineups

Starting XI

Bench

Coach Rikizo Matsuhashi

Nagoya Grampus Lineups

Starting XI

Bench

Coach Kenta Hasegawa

H2H

H2H Top Scorers

Player	Goals
Diego Oliveira	6
Kensuke Nagai	3
Kasper Junker	3
Diego Oliveira	2
Kensuke Nagai	2
Takahiro Ko	1
Adailton	1
Sho Inagaki	1

Head to Head

FC Tōkyō Form

2025-02-26 FC Tōkyō 3–1 Nagoya Grampus W 2025-02-22 FC Tōkyō 0–1 FC Machida Zelvia L 2025-02-15 Yokohama FC 0–1 FC Tōkyō W 2024-12-08 FC Tōkyō 3–0 Cerezo Osaka FC W 2024-11-30 Júbilo Iwata 2–1 FC Tōkyō L 2024-11-09 FC Machida Zelvia 3–0 FC Tōkyō L

Nagoya Grampus Form

2025-02-26 FC Tōkyō 3–1 Nagoya Grampus L 2025-02-22 Nagoya Grampus 2–2 Vissel Kobe D 2025-02-15 Kawasaki Frontale 4–0 Nagoya Grampus L 2024-12-08 Yokohama F·Marinos 0–2 Nagoya Grampus W 2024-11-30 Nagoya Grampus 0–3 Sagan Tosu FC L 2024-11-09 Kashima Antlers 0–0 Nagoya Grampus D

Predictions

Prediction accuracy

4 / 4

3.02 FC Tōkyō xG

Expected Goals

Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo

1.76 Nagoya Grampus xG

I would bet for: Over 2.5 goals 84% + Both teams to score 78%

Match Result

✓ Correct

FC Tōkyō61% Draw19% Nagoya Grampus20%

Actual: FC Tōkyō win

Both Teams to Score

✓ Correct

Yes78% 0% No22%

Avg goals/match: 4.78

Actual: Yes — both scored

Over / Under Goals

✓ O/U 2.5

Line	Over	Under
± 0.5	98%	2%
± 1.5	95%	5%
± 2.5	84%	16%
± 3.5	69%	31%
± 4.5	51%	49%

Double Chance

FC Tōkyō or Draw

79%

Draw or Nagoya Grampus

39%

FC Tōkyō or Nagoya Grampus

81%

Half-Time Result

✓ Correct

FC Tōkyō48% Draw32% Nagoya Grampus20%

Actual: FC Tōkyō win at HT

Correct Score

✓ In top 12

2 – 1

6.7%

3 – 1

Actual

2 – 2

5.8%

3 – 2

5.7%

1 – 1

5.2%

4 – 1

4 – 2

4.3%

2 – 0

4.1%

1 – 2

3 – 0

3.9%

2 – 3

3.4%

3 – 3

3.4%

Asian Handicap — FC Tōkyō

Handicap	FC Tōkyō covers	Push	Nagoya Grampus covers
-2.5	26%	—	74%
-2	26%	17%	57%
-1.5	43%	—	57%
-1	43%	18%	38%
-0.5	62%	—	38%
+0.5	79%	—	21%
+1	79%	11%	10%
+1.5	90%	—	10%
+2	90%	6%	4%
+2.5	96%	—	4%

Clean Sheet

FC Tōkyō keeps clean sheet

18% ✓

Nagoya Grampus keeps clean sheet

6% ✓

Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.